Common Sense Investor (CSI)
@commonsenseplay • 31,496 subscribers
On a crusade to bring the truth to retail stock market investors, let’s beat Wall Street and insiders this time. Completely independent! Not financial advice.
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Videos
BREAKING: MONDAY WE WILL SEE A CORRECTION IN THE STOCK MARKET! The $2,000 “dividend” is NOT going to be a traditional stimulus check. Bessent has clearly been doing damage control over the past couple hours. He’s now saying: “The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms and lots of ways. It could simply be the tax decreases that are part of the President’s agenda.” Examples he floated: - No tax on tips - No tax on overtime - No tax on Social Security - Deductibility of auto loans i.e. no mention of check's! Important context: This is not a direct injection of cash like a 2020 stimulus check. It’s not guaranteed money hitting people’s bank accounts, it’s potential tax-side changes… which could take months to implement, could phase in slowly, and may not even translate to a net $2,000 for most people depending on their income and deductions! This is NOT bullish for the stock market. There’s no immediate liquidity event here - no sudden retail inflow, no “free money” impulse buying moment. So while the headlines are flashy, the mechanics behind this are policy-structural, not liquidity-driven! Last ditched attempt by TRUMP to save the stock market correction coming from the Government shutdown!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)2,259,700 次观看 • 7 个月前
WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE.” Today the market sits at a 25x P/E. Add inflation… and your “returns” are negative. So what’s Marks doing? Buying bonds! During the 2000–2002 crash: - Long-term Treasuries: +40–45% - NASDAQ: –78% History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes. We might only be in the first inning of the next pullback. I’m already reallocating heavily into long-term bond ETFs like $TLT and $ZFL.TO, and I think they’ll outperform for years.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)2,152,404 次观看 • 7 个月前
Michael Burry’s rant against the CNBC for getting his trades totally wrong! “The press – on CNBC – say I have a 10billion dollar short position on $PLTR Palantir” “It’s 10 million” … not 10billion! Are the press singling him out, or are they just totally idiotic in their understanding of 13F’s, to get his trade position wrong by two orders of magnitude? Full interview on “Against the Rules with Michael Lewis” podcast linked in the comments! Also side note - Michael Burry rocking the new hair do in a hoodie - he is clearly enjoying the substack retirement.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)730,560 次观看 • 6 个月前
Give credit where it’s due: Back in 2012, when Apple traded in the $500 range (pre-split), a young Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said, “ $AAPL Apple could go to $2,000 per share!” People thought he was crazy at the time - but he absolutely nailed it! Today, after two stock splits since 2012, $AAPL is worth the equivalent of more than $7,600 per share.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)510,701 次观看 • 6 个月前
WARREN BUFFETT’S ONE CRITICAL PIECE OF ADVICE DURING A STOCK MARKET BUBBLE During the dot-com bubble, Warren Buffett was asked about stocks skyrocketing 100–200% in a matter of weeks. His response was a timeless reminder: - "We've had a lot of speculative activity and all kinds of things over the years in markets and it frequently doesn't come to a good end" - "But it will be with us 100 years from now just as it was a 100 years ago" - "There is a lot of action and people are day trading and that sort of thing" - "I have one piece i'd give is ...DON'T DO IT ON BORROWED MONEY" Buffett warned that many people eventually get wiped out because stocks don’t go up forever, valuations can become extreme, and if you’re leveraged when prices fall, you don’t get to play out your hand. W e’re seeing similar speculative surges today in sectors like quantum computing, nuclear, and flying cars. Whatever you do: **Do NOT gamble with borrowed money. One bad day is all it takes to end the game.**
Common Sense Investor (CSI)39,877 次观看 • 16 天前
BREAKING: MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE WHO OWNS STOCKS. Legendary Investor Howard Marks appearing yesterday on Bloomberg discussed Retail being pushed to invest in Private Credit, Stock Market Cycles and "Cockroaches in the Coal Mine". "It's only during tough economic times that we learn who lent money stupidly!" If you can spare 5 mins today watch this video! Like and follow if you enjoy this content - appreciate it!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)190,511 次观看 • 2 个月前
8 years ago in 2018, Elon Musk warned: "Mark my words, AI is far more dangerous than nukes. The danger of AI is much greater than the danger of nuclear warheads by a lot" ..."so why don't we have regulatory oversight?" He specifically called out Sam Altman's OpenAI as a potential threat to humanity if left unregulated. Yet AI development and investment continue at an unparalleled pace. Where is the regulatory oversight? And why do I feel Elon Musk has gone noticeably quieter on these dangers, instead spearheading the charge himself through xAI.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)241,638 次观看 • 4 个月前
BREAKING: $RGTI CEO on Yahoo Finance this morning: “Sales don’t matter for us.” “3–5 years for quantum advantage.” “7–9 years for fault-tolerant quantum computers.” The reason the CEO can be honest is he sold all of his shares back in May! Translation: the CEO is openly saying there will be no meaningful commercial revenue for the better part of a decade. Investors are pricing a revenue story around quantum advantage being here and now that literally doesn’t exist yet. This stock is going to get crushed.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)379,941 次观看 • 7 个月前
THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IS SET UP PERFECTLY! 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have. - Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP - But personal savings are near record lows and - Credit card balances are at record highs - This is not sustainable and when consumers stop spending - earnings fall and markets follow! 2. The labor market has persevered but is showing cracks. - Hiring has slowed significantly and layoffs are increasing - Its not a strong labor market, its a lagging labor market which always happens right before downturns! - Less people employed means less consumer spending Rate cuts won't save us this time! Here is the cycle of false confidence that always happens right before the real crash, and it's happening RIGHT NOW!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)274,421 次观看 • 5 个月前
MUST WATCH: This is the greatest threat to the stock market in 2026. It could cause the MAG 7 to collapse. $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $TLT $PLTR $PATH $AMZN $MSFT $NFLX
Common Sense Investor (CSI)250,685 次观看 • 5 个月前
WARREN BUFFETT AND JAMIE DIMON ON WHY NOT TO INVEST IN CRYPTO $BTC $ETH! Warren Buffett explains it perfectly: - "If you buy something like Bitcoin or some cryptocurrency, you don't really have anything that is producing" ..like a farm or a business... "YOU ARE JUST HOPING THE NEXT GUY PAYS MORE". I agree with Buffett and personally do not invest in crypto. The risk of catastrophic drawdowns in this asset class alone gives me heartburn. In the past 9 years, $BTC has experienced: - 6 declines greater than -50% - 3 declines greater than -75% That level of volatility is far beyond what I’m comfortable with for an “asset,” if you can even call it that, where you are essentially just hoping the next person pays more. People often argue that Bitcoin’s value comes from its finite supply: - The maximum amount of Bitcoin that can ever exist is 21 million $BTC. - As of now, about 19.7M+ BTC have already been mined. - The last bitcoin is expected to be mined around the year 2140. - This limit is "hard-coded" into Bitcoin’s protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto. But as Jamie Dimon (JPM CEO) said last year - - "How do you know if it's going to stop at 21 million" - "Maybe it gets to 21 million and Satoshi's picture comes up laughing at you all, and by then he would take taken out billions of dollars"!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)294,341 次观看 • 7 个月前
Jensen never changed his mind on Quantum! - "We are working with every quantum company in the world" - "15 years is on the early side, 30 years is a little late" - "Most of us settle on 20 years" $ionq $rgti $qubt $qbts He didn't change his entire view in a few months. He just doesn't want to crash the market and these companies stock price, like he did last time. He want's to see the industry progress and they earn $NVIDIA money! But the technology is still 15 - 20 years away.
Common Sense Investor302,529 次观看 • 7 个月前
Breaking: Stanley Druckenmiller says he expects to lose money on his short bonds position $TLT He’s not using it for profit - he’s using it as a hedge against higher-risk bets in: - Korea, Japan & Brazil - Copper - Gold Important context: Druckenmiller knows he has a massive retail following. Timing matters. When a legendary macro investor publicly lays out positioning, you have to consider the possibility that exposure is already being reduced into strength. i.e. you are the exit liquidity!! No one gives away their full portfolio edge for free. I’m positioned the other way - 60% of my portfolio is long bonds $TLT
Common Sense Investor (CSI)106,699 次观看 • 3 个月前
ONE OF THE WORLD GREATEST INVESTORS ON WHY BITCOIN $BTC IS ANTISOCIAL, STUPID AND IMMORAL! Charlie Munger gave this interview not long before his death, here are his key thoughts on $BTC: - "The Computer Science that is behind Bitcoin is a great triumph for the human mind" - "They've actually created a product that is hard to create more of, but not impossible" - "A lot of the Computer Science people love it just because its such an extreme achievement of Computer Science" - "I see an artificial speculative medium, that people are buying just because they think they can sell it to somebody else at a higher price, even though it inherently has no intrinsic value" - "I regard the whole business as anti-social, stupid and immoral" In summary: 1. Munger’s issue wasn’t the tech - it was the economics. He admired the innovation but saw no cash flow or intrinsic value behind the asset. 2. His critique reflects classic value-investing logic: if you can’t price it, you’re not investing..you’re speculating. 3. He viewed Bitcoin’s rise as a product of FOMO and gambler psychology, not productive economic activity. I agree with him, Bitcoin is not a store of value it's dropped 30% in just the last few weeks. BITCOIN IS NOT THE NEW GOLD!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)172,906 次观看 • 6 个月前
BREAKING: THE MOST IMPORTANT VIDEO TO WATCH IF YOU ARE INVESTED IN QUANTUM COMPUTING COMPANIES. $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT The world's leading quantum computing researcher Scott Aaronson calls out the scams and snakeoilmen in the public quantum computing stock market. $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT - "The most important thing that I can say in this whole interview, if I am taking to Retail investors is that unfortunately there are companies that I see that are really trying to solve the hardware problems, they might succeed, they might fail but they are really focused on solving the real problems and talking about it more or less honestly" - "and then there are companies that have focused on like marketing themselves to Retail investors and doing IPO's" i.e. the 4 public quantum computing companies IONQ, Rigetti, D-Wave and QUBT. - "and I see these 2 sets of companies being mostly disjoint from each other" - "So the companies that have focused on doing IPO's are actually not the ones that are in the lead on in the hardware, what they are in the lead on is selling a narrative to people...... - "convincing people this is already useful for solving problems in optimization and machine learning and finance, which sounds great to people, but all depends on you agreeing to not ask the question Q. well could a classical computer have done that just as well, could a classical computer actually have done that much faster and easier " "When people are talking about that the big use of a quantum computer is to solve optimization or machine learning problems or to turbo charge AI, or it can already do this, it's already delivering value to customers...." "these are the tells you are dealing with a SNAKEOIL SALESMAN" He calls out the "scammy" companies in this space! Remember the only 4 quantum pure play companies that have IPO'd are $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT $QBTS He also says earlier in the interview “I would say $IONQ has not demonstrated anything in trapped ion hardware close to what Quantinuum has demonstrated in the last year” YOU ARE BEING LIED TO! Full video in comments from the The Quantum Bull
Common Sense Investor (CSI)136,030 次观看 • 5 个月前
I still can't believe the $ionq CEO is getting away with saying this. "they will wipe the floor" with NVIDIA by 2027. That's 15 months away. Peak hype, verging on fraud. He also says this while selling $104million dollars worth of shares, making himself rich off the hype comments he makes on every podcast/interview. Won't end well! $IONQ $RGTI
Common Sense Investor (CSI)172,003 次观看 • 8 个月前
One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an interview with Samir Varma, a theoretical physicist turned trader hedge-fund manager- he earned his doctorate in particle physics from University of Texas at Austin, and was one of the first to execute profitably quantitative futures strategies. He noted - over 30 years, almost all of $SPY ’s gains happened while the market was CLOSED! I found this super interesting, so I did some digging to see if this was true and here's the data: According to a long-term analysis (1993–2025), the “overnight” strategy for SPY i.e. buy at close, sell at next open, yielded cumulative gains of 1,105%, while the “intraday” strategy, buy at open, sell at close, only delivered about 27% over the same period i.e. - If you bought at the close every day and sold at the next open, your return would be about +1,100% - If you bought at the open and sold at the close, your return is only around +27% Same index, same time period but insanely different returns. This doesn’t mean the market always drops during the day - it just means that the average intraday move has been very small over the long run, while the average overnight move has been much larger. Why might this happen? - News and earnings usually come out after hours - Futures markets react overnight - Big institutions hedge when markets are closed - Risk premium for holding exposure through uncertainty This pattern shows up again and again in the data. Why this is not a free trading strategy? because costs and spreads can wipe out the edge if you try to time it. But for long-term investors, it highlights something important: - A big part of the compounding has come from simply holding overnight. - The market often moves the most while you’re not watching, a lesson for intraday index traders ;)
Common Sense Investor (CSI)67,602 次观看 • 3 个月前