Daniel
@danielisdizzy • 23,858 subscribers
Investments & market insights 📈 Daily updates + my portfolio growth 💸 YouTube 🎥 https://t.co/dUuKweywva
Videos
Jensen Huang says that investing in the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will be like buying $AMZN, $GOOGL, or $META in their early stages. Don't become a victim of FOMO. IPO day is not where the best opportunities are made. In many cases, there's a massive spike followed by a sharp decline that takes the stock below its IPO price. Just look at $META. After its 2012 IPO, the stock lost more than 50% of its value within three months. The best opportunities come when the hype is gone, sentiment turns negative, and nobody wants to touch the stock. That's when I'll be buying heavy.
Daniel640,821 次观看 • 1 个月前
Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, just made it clear why rates are going lower: “AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We’re at the front end of a productivity boom. Economic growth won’t be inflationary—we’re in the early innings of a structural decline in prices.” Elon Musk, Sam Altman, even Stanley Druckenmiller all expect AI to be strongly deflationary. The next few years are going to be insane.
Daniel892,432 次观看 • 2 个月前
Larry Ellison $ORCL highlighted something critical: models like ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Llama are all trained on largely the same public internet data. When everyone trains on the same information, models inevitably converge. That’s why AI is moving toward commoditization. The real moat isn’t the model itself. It’s the proprietary data behind it. Companies that can train on exclusive datasets gain an advantage competitors can’t replicate. Having data that no one else has will allow you to dominate your market.
Daniel1,132,114 次观看 • 4 个月前
Tom Lee expects the rally to continue through June, led by software companies and AI beneficiaries. But from late June to October, he sees a correction that could feel like a bear market. Why? • Potential IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could absorb significant liquidity. • The market will test Kevin Warsh’s inflation framework. • Midterm election seasonality has historically been a headwind. Tom compares it to the February-April pullback: The S&P 500 fell just 9%, but many individual stocks dropped 50%+. His view: the stocks that have run the hardest are the most vulnerable. Long term, he’s still extremely bullish: ‘From October, I think that’s when a very strong rally starts.’
Daniel253,733 次观看 • 1 个月前
Tom Lee remains bearish in the short term and continues to expect a 15-20% drawdown later this summer. According to him, the correction will be driven by: 1. How the Fed reacts to the underlying inflation risks 2. The market not liking inflation concerns while yields are rising, with inflation shocks and energy shortages still in the pipeline 3. A large wave of IPOs creating a lot of supply After this drawdown, Tom Lee believes the following 18-24 months could bring one of the biggest rallies of our lifetime.
Daniel346,753 次观看 • 1 个月前
Tom Lee believes yesterday’s selloff is NOT the beginning of the correction expected later this year. But he still believes a correction is coming. His argument: • Markets had a parabolic move over the last month, so expectations have become much higher. • SpaceX raising $75B through its IPO, combined with another $75B from $GOOGL issuing new shares, is a massive amount of capital for public markets to absorb. When markets wobble, investors raise cash. This may be less about panic and more about liquidity.
Daniel203,434 次观看 • 1 个月前
The SaaSpocalypse narrative is starting to make less and less sense. Software companies like $PLTR, $NOW, and $CRM are getting punished because investors believe AI will replace SaaS. Jensen Huang disagrees. “Claude can write software.” That’s true. But Jensen argues that enterprises aren’t going to build their own software. They’re going to deploy AI agents that use software tools to get work done. “Agents won’t replace tools. Agents will use tools.” NVIDIA is already seeing this happen. According to Jensen, the company has deployed so many AI agents that tool usage is actually increasing. That’s the exact opposite of the SaaSpocalypse thesis.
Daniel119,760 次观看 • 20 天前
Kevin Warsh's view is clear: AI will eventually force interest rates lower because it will be highly deflationary. "AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We're at the front end of a productivity boom." The problem is that today's economy is telling a different story. Inflation is at 4.2%, its highest level in three years. Tensions with Iran continue to threaten oil supplies. The labor market remains strong. AI may be deflationary in the long run, but the Fed has to deal with today's inflation first. I don't expect a single rate cut before the end of 2026.
Daniel154,839 次观看 • 27 天前
Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 at 7,300… then a 15–20% drawdown. The setup is simple: The Fed gets tested A new chairman steps in. Warsh wants rate cuts, but the data says the opposite. His decisions will expose whether the Fed stays independent or bends to Donald Trump. The oil shock is delayed The impact of the Iran war isn’t priced in. Shortages hit later → oil spikes → inflation rises → growth slows. That’s what triggers the drawdown.
Daniel271,313 次观看 • 2 个月前
$CRWV is one of the best buying opportunities in the market, now down 50% from its highs. • $13B expected 2026 revenue (+153% YoY) • $18B expected exit run rate by the end of 2026 • $99B backlog • Expected to become profitable in 2027 One of the biggest reasons investors have sold the stock is its growing losses and heavy debt load. In Q1 alone, 25.8% of revenue went toward interest payments. But as CEO Michael Intrator said: “As we continue to build and scale the business, you will start to see an enormous acceleration of that leverage in the second half of 2026.” “The losses are a function of the rate at which we’re growing.” The market is focusing on today’s losses instead of tomorrow’s operating leverage.
Daniel53,960 次观看 • 12 天前
Shorting is a dangerous game. If you’re wrong on a long, you lose 100%. If you’re wrong on a short, losses are unlimited. Just listen to Stanley Druckenmiller: “I’ve never had a down year, but I’ve never made money in shorts. When I was at Soros, I shorted $200M of internet stocks. 3 weeks later I covered for a $600M loss. I was short 12 stocks. They all went bankrupt.”
Daniel292,744 次观看 • 2 个月前
Stanley Druckenmiller said what many think about Jerome Powell but won’t say out loud. “The Fed’s job is to avoid big mistakes — like the massive inflation we just had. Powell is obsessed with engineering a soft landing and protecting his legacy. But the only reason we even need a landing is because they let inflation run from 2% to 9%. This Fed shows again and again that they think changing their mind means losing credibility.” Powell didn’t save the economy. He helped create the mess.
Daniel648,344 次观看 • 5 个月前
Stanley Druckenmiller, who has relied heavily on technical analysis during his career, recently said: “I can unequivocally tell you that technical analysis is about 20% as effective today as it was 30 years ago, because no one was using it. But when everybody’s using it, it doesn’t work anymore because you don’t have a unique thing to act against.” If even Druckenmiller says this, it reinforces a simple idea: What really matters is buying great companies and avoiding overpaying for them. As Peter Lynch used to say, in the long run the price of a stock will follow the company’s economic results — regardless of the “drawings” on a chart. “If charts could really predict the future, technical analysts would all be billionaires.” Technical analysis is more of a distraction than anything else. The real edge isn’t drawing lines. It’s understanding businesses.
Daniel488,778 次观看 • 4 个月前
The deal between $IREN and $NVDA means everything for $IREN. Jensen already said: “If we didn’t help CoreWeave $CRWV exist, they would not exist. If we didn’t support $NBIS, they wouldn’t be where they are today. If we didn’t support Nscale, they wouldn’t be where they are today. We invest in our ecosystem because I want our ecosystem to thrive.” The most important part of this deal is not the 5 GW that $IREN can now deploy with $NVDA infrastructure. It’s not the $3.4B that $NVDA will pay for $IREN cloud services over the next 5 years. It’s the fact that $NVDA now has a vested interest in seeing $IREN succeed. That changes everything. Huge news for all $IREN shareholders.
Daniel236,231 次观看 • 2 个月前
Tom Lee says retail is chasing this rally. They didn’t buy the dip. They’re buying now. That’s exit liquidity. That’s what pushes the market higher first. Then the new Fed Chair arrives. The market tests it. A pullback follows. After that reset, we enter one of the strongest 18–24 month runs we’ve ever seen.
Daniel302,047 次观看 • 2 个月前
$NBIS and the other neo-clouds will need to raise hundreds of billions of dollars. It's true that $CRWV is significantly more leveraged today — ~$25B vs ~$8B for $NBIS — and pays average rates around 9%. But as it scales, backed by its $99B contractual backlog, it is already raising debt at increasingly lower rates. Its latest $8.5B facility was the first investment-grade financing ever achieved on AI assets (~7% blended). $NBIS has the advantage of being able to divest non-core assets, but over time the gap between their financing structures won't be nearly as large. Judging $CRWV as much worse than $NBIS solely because of today's debt is the wrong move.
Daniel134,420 次观看 • 1 个月前
Tom Lee continues to expect a major market correction later this year. According to him, the correction will be driven by: 1. Typical midterm seasonality and the uncertainty surrounding it 2. Tight petroleum product inventories that are not being relieved anytime soon, creating energy pressure 3. A large wave of IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, with future lockup expirations creating a supply overhang Tom Lee also believes the Mag 7 already went through their bear market and will be relatively spared during the broader correction. He also thinks semiconductor stocks may eventually become a bubble.
Daniel165,528 次观看 • 1 个月前
Stanley Druckenmiller: “We’re not undervalued. We’re near the top of the historical valuation range.” Strong economy. Incoming stimulus. Fed cuts likely. Everything looks bullish. The market is behaving like it’s cheap. It isn’t. Macro was ignored for 10–15 years. That’s changing now. The market is overvalued and this rally won’t last. Don’t chase positions at ATHs.
Daniel245,615 次观看 • 2 个月前
If you invest $1,000 in a stock, you can lose $1,000. But if you’re right, you can make $5,000, $10,000, or $20,000. In the stock market, you don’t need to be right all the time to win. What matters is this: when you find a solid company, don’t panic sell when the stock crashes. If possible, buy more — and most importantly, don’t sell. Selling great companies too early is a terrible mistake. 90% of success in the stock market is patience and the ability to not panic. Most of the time, you don’t need to do anything. Just wait
Daniel365,199 次观看 • 4 个月前