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JustDario

@DarioCpx • 113,134 subscribers

Entrepreneur | Angel Investor | Asymmetric Bets | Many opinions on Macro, Stocks, and Facts | For market professionals on https://t.co/76NYEoFoj2

Shorts

Dry sponge: Chinese teapot refineries Water: Iranian crude oil leaving Hormuz now Table: The rest of the world Hope this helps

Dry sponge: Chinese teapot refineries Water: Iranian crude oil leaving Hormuz now Table: The rest of the world Hope this helps

111,998 görüntüleme

One year ago Microsoft CEO warned about how he “bet the farm” on OpenAI - nobody listened at that time. This weekend everyone wakes up to the fact that Microsoft fears hundreds of billions of investments in compute for OpenAI might never turn a profit 🤨

One year ago Microsoft CEO warned about how he “bet the farm” on OpenAI - nobody listened at that time. This weekend everyone wakes up to the fact that Microsoft fears hundreds of billions of investments in compute for OpenAI might never turn a profit 🤨

287,091 görüntüleme

I just published a 5-page detailed report of the 2026 FED Stress Test on Slice. In a nutshell: ⚠️The US Central Bank Remains Complicit in Hiding Banks' Problems. Link to subscribe and access the report in the comment below

I just published a 5-page detailed report of the 2026 FED Stress Test on Slice. In a nutshell: ⚠️The US Central Bank Remains Complicit in Hiding Banks' Problems. Link to subscribe and access the report in the comment below

29,871 görüntüleme

This is pretty much the state of the whole stock market now

This is pretty much the state of the whole stock market now

27,726 görüntüleme

Heavy rain season started a bit too early this year in Hong Kong 😅 FYI - it’s 3pm here

Heavy rain season started a bit too early this year in Hong Kong 😅 FYI - it’s 3pm here

26,818 görüntüleme

Can you believe that, instead of buying the dip hard on Friday, I was in Shenzhen listening to the ONEREPUBLIC ? 🙈 Amazing concert but I fear will likely be the most expensive one I have ever attended

Can you believe that, instead of buying the dip hard on Friday, I was in Shenzhen listening to the ONEREPUBLIC ? 🙈 Amazing concert but I fear will likely be the most expensive one I have ever attended

24,664 görüntüleme

“Let’s go grab a coffee” and no, it’s never just a quick espresso 🙈 📍 Lambertini #JDFoodPorn

“Let’s go grab a coffee” and no, it’s never just a quick espresso 🙈 📍 Lambertini #JDFoodPorn

14,188 görüntüleme

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"When Trump said we would run out of oil in 4 weeks, he wasn't kidding" "Oil won't stop coming out of the ground, but there won't be enough high-sulfur oil to meet all diesel and jet fuel demand" Still wondering why 3-2-1 crack spreads are so high and continue to rise?

"When Trump said we would run out of oil in 4 weeks, he wasn't kidding" "Oil won't stop coming out of the ground, but there won't be enough high-sulfur oil to meet all diesel and jet fuel demand" Still wondering why 3-2-1 crack spreads are so high and continue to rise?

278,730 görüntüleme • 16 gün önce

Unfreakingbelievable

Unfreakingbelievable

83,296 görüntüleme • 12 gün önce

“China is losing the AI race”

“China is losing the AI race”

766,596 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Take a look at these two when Trump said: "We would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks"

Take a look at these two when Trump said: "We would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks"

108,652 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Yemen's Houthis are mobilising, not sure why nobody is talking about this, but it looks like rather important in my humble opinion

Yemen's Houthis are mobilising, not sure why nobody is talking about this, but it looks like rather important in my humble opinion

78,162 görüntüleme • 23 gün önce

Comedians always end up being the ones telling the uncomfortable truth: 🎯"AI is going to end up making mediocre people dumber" 🎯"AI can be the fuel, but fuel is useless if you cannot kindle the fire [..] learning the fundamentals still matter" Well said Ronny Chieng 👏

Comedians always end up being the ones telling the uncomfortable truth: 🎯"AI is going to end up making mediocre people dumber" 🎯"AI can be the fuel, but fuel is useless if you cannot kindle the fire [..] learning the fundamentals still matter" Well said Ronny Chieng 👏

59,325 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce

All stock investors currently watching government bond yields

All stock investors currently watching government bond yields

163,800 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Banksters are truly working hard this morning to slam the price of silver below the dotted line (that marks the level when the naked shorts squeeze becomes painful again)

Banksters are truly working hard this morning to slam the price of silver below the dotted line (that marks the level when the naked shorts squeeze becomes painful again)

265,547 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

The JPY is about to hit markets where it hurts the most - again

The JPY is about to hit markets where it hurts the most - again

68,112 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

On April 20th 2020, something "impossible" happened: oil futures prices crashed through the floor, settling at MINUS $37.62 a barrel The reason? Because of lockdowns, demand for fuel crashed, oil tanks filled up, and no storage space was left, so those who held oil for delivery had to dump contracts at any price. Important to notice how, in 2020, speculative traders were positioned heavily long on Oil futures under the assumption lockdowns would not have lasted long and demand quickly spiked as soon as they were lifted, propping up the depressed crude oil prices. What would it take for the exact opposite to happen and for oil prices to suddenly skyrocket? Logically speaking, the answer is: SPR, Commercial, and Cushing inventories all at critical lows at the same time while demand remains strong and supply is in deficit. Does anything I said sound familiar? Of course it does, because that's exactly where we are right now. Those who say all-time low SPRs don't matter might be right. Those who say low commercial inventories do not matter might be right. Those who say Cushing hitting tank bottoms do not matter might be right too. Yes, they might be right if you consider these factors in isolation. The problem is that all-time low SPRs, low commercial inventories, Cushing about to hit tank bottoms, while demand remains strong (otherwise monster drawdowns would not happen) ARE ALL HAPPENING AT THE SAME TIME. Beware: trading models are always based upon what happened in the past, but they aren't the right tool to try to predict something that never happened for the simple reason they have no data points to be built on. This is the reason why those who just looked at their models and charts could not see coming what happened in 2020. The same is happening today; that's just how the system works. Furthermore, opposite to what happened in 2020, speculative traders are holding a significant amount of short positions, effectively betting against the laws of Mother Nature, exactly like in 2020.

On April 20th 2020, something "impossible" happened: oil futures prices crashed through the floor, settling at MINUS $37.62 a barrel The reason? Because of lockdowns, demand for fuel crashed, oil tanks filled up, and no storage space was left, so those who held oil for delivery had to dump contracts at any price. Important to notice how, in 2020, speculative traders were positioned heavily long on Oil futures under the assumption lockdowns would not have lasted long and demand quickly spiked as soon as they were lifted, propping up the depressed crude oil prices. What would it take for the exact opposite to happen and for oil prices to suddenly skyrocket? Logically speaking, the answer is: SPR, Commercial, and Cushing inventories all at critical lows at the same time while demand remains strong and supply is in deficit. Does anything I said sound familiar? Of course it does, because that's exactly where we are right now. Those who say all-time low SPRs don't matter might be right. Those who say low commercial inventories do not matter might be right. Those who say Cushing hitting tank bottoms do not matter might be right too. Yes, they might be right if you consider these factors in isolation. The problem is that all-time low SPRs, low commercial inventories, Cushing about to hit tank bottoms, while demand remains strong (otherwise monster drawdowns would not happen) ARE ALL HAPPENING AT THE SAME TIME. Beware: trading models are always based upon what happened in the past, but they aren't the right tool to try to predict something that never happened for the simple reason they have no data points to be built on. This is the reason why those who just looked at their models and charts could not see coming what happened in 2020. The same is happening today; that's just how the system works. Furthermore, opposite to what happened in 2020, speculative traders are holding a significant amount of short positions, effectively betting against the laws of Mother Nature, exactly like in 2020.

67,018 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

The banksters are slamming silver and other PMs hard right now - This time I recorded it live since I believe it gives a better sense of how this price manipulation works

The banksters are slamming silver and other PMs hard right now - This time I recorded it live since I believe it gives a better sense of how this price manipulation works

217,155 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

It's very rare to see something like this, especially on such a large market like the JPY. Either a trading mistake happened or, maybe, someone is trying to mess around with the BOJ

It's very rare to see something like this, especially on such a large market like the JPY. Either a trading mistake happened or, maybe, someone is trying to mess around with the BOJ

106,410 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

My take on the current state of the AI stocks bubble, especially how, differently from a year ago, DeepSeek breakthroughs are now totally ignored by investors

My take on the current state of the AI stocks bubble, especially how, differently from a year ago, DeepSeek breakthroughs are now totally ignored by investors

108,514 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

On the Oct 26th 2008, while markets across the globe were in the eye of the GFC storm, a brutal short squeeze of VW shares unravelled If you think the current setup in the crude oil market today is completely different and such an event cannot occur, think carefully about it

On the Oct 26th 2008, while markets across the globe were in the eye of the GFC storm, a brutal short squeeze of VW shares unravelled If you think the current setup in the crude oil market today is completely different and such an event cannot occur, think carefully about it

36,989 görüntüleme • 29 gün önce

On the 22nd of January the Perth Mint posted a Message on its website: “no silver shortage, we are working hard to meet demand” - that message is still there. However, EVERY SINGLE SILVER BULLION on its website is currently sold out

On the 22nd of January the Perth Mint posted a Message on its website: “no silver shortage, we are working hard to meet demand” - that message is still there. However, EVERY SINGLE SILVER BULLION on its website is currently sold out

165,565 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Oil prices are still ~10$ away from the level where they were trading just before the barrage of fake news claiming an imminent deal between US and Iran 2 weeks ago Not only prices should be already back at ~105$, but way above because “tank bottoms” is inexorably approaching

Oil prices are still ~10$ away from the level where they were trading just before the barrage of fake news claiming an imminent deal between US and Iran 2 weeks ago Not only prices should be already back at ~105$, but way above because “tank bottoms” is inexorably approaching

56,855 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

If you are curious to know what "experts" and "talking heads" are going to say in several months about inflation and the economy, you'll find all the answers in this clip from FIFTY-TWO years ago, recorded at the peak of the 1970's oil crisis

If you are curious to know what "experts" and "talking heads" are going to say in several months about inflation and the economy, you'll find all the answers in this clip from FIFTY-TWO years ago, recorded at the peak of the 1970's oil crisis

60,203 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

For those who missed it last week, here is the section where I explained how the new CME margin calculation rules effectively worsened the silver squeeze and significantly worsened silver shorts problems the higher the price goes

For those who missed it last week, here is the section where I explained how the new CME margin calculation rules effectively worsened the silver squeeze and significantly worsened silver shorts problems the higher the price goes

JustDario 🏊‍♂️

143,856 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Here I explained the unfolding oil shock in the most simplified way that should be understandable even by a 5 years old - hope is helpful to all those who still don’t see big troubles at the horizon

Here I explained the unfolding oil shock in the most simplified way that should be understandable even by a 5 years old - hope is helpful to all those who still don’t see big troubles at the horizon

36,744 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This is what they did on Wednesday to cover up the brutal EIA report and make sure as few people as possible know the extent of the oil supply crisis we are racing towards - now regardless of anything that happens in the Middle East improving or worsening the situation there

This is what they did on Wednesday to cover up the brutal EIA report and make sure as few people as possible know the extent of the oil supply crisis we are racing towards - now regardless of anything that happens in the Middle East improving or worsening the situation there

45,824 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce