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On April 20th 2020, something "impossible" happened: oil futures prices crashed through the floor, settling at MINUS $37.62 a barrel The reason? Because of lockdowns, demand for fuel crashed, oil tanks filled up, and no storage space was left, so those who held oil for delivery had to dump...

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JustDario

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Everyone wants to know how to trade what the eurodollar system is telling us. Turns out oil futures hand you the answer. Watch Cushing inventories hit tank bottoms. Overlay long-term rates on top. They move together, every time. Why? Oil futures are leveraged. Funding costs are priced in. When contango steepens hard, that is not just a supply story, it is a dollar shortage story. The futures curve went from screaming historic deficit to flat in a matter of months. That is not supply. That is demand destruction, and it is showing up in the payroll data too. Different markets, same signal. That is the whole point of following the plumbing instead of the headlines.
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Everyone wants to know how to trade what the eurodollar system is telling us. Turns out oil futures hand you the answer. Watch Cushing inventories hit tank bottoms. Overlay long-term rates on top. They move together, every time. Why? Oil futures are leveraged. Funding costs are priced in. When contango steepens hard, that is not just a supply story, it is a dollar shortage story. The futures curve went from screaming historic deficit to flat in a matter of months. That is not supply. That is demand destruction, and it is showing up in the payroll data too. Different markets, same signal. That is the whole point of following the plumbing instead of the headlines.

Jeffrey P. Snider

27,973 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨Prof. Steve Hanke: ‘Oil futures market have got it WRONG, oil prices will SKYROCKET by early August.’ ‘I think basically the markets just got things wrong…the futures market is just not anticipating things correctly because what’s going on with oil is that you have all this oil bottled up and not being delivered. And as a result of that, the demand for oil internationally is greater than the supply that’s coming into the market right now. And that gap between demand and supply is being filled by running inventories down. So inventories of oil are going down, down, and hitting almost rock-bottom levels in some countries. For most countries on average, I think by the end of July or early August we’ll hit very low, critical levels of oil inventories. And when that happens, the price will zoom up again, and you’ll find out that those people who purchased futures contracts for delivery in August, for example, will make out like bandits because they will have purchased the thing for August delivery today at a price that will be lower than I think the price will be in August when they actually have to deliver.’ —Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, joins us for the SEASON PREMIERE of Going Underground on Saturday Don’t miss it, follow our Rumble channel, link below in the replies👇
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🚨Prof. Steve Hanke: ‘Oil futures market have got it WRONG, oil prices will SKYROCKET by early August.’ ‘I think basically the markets just got things wrong…the futures market is just not anticipating things correctly because what’s going on with oil is that you have all this oil bottled up and not being delivered. And as a result of that, the demand for oil internationally is greater than the supply that’s coming into the market right now. And that gap between demand and supply is being filled by running inventories down. So inventories of oil are going down, down, and hitting almost rock-bottom levels in some countries. For most countries on average, I think by the end of July or early August we’ll hit very low, critical levels of oil inventories. And when that happens, the price will zoom up again, and you’ll find out that those people who purchased futures contracts for delivery in August, for example, will make out like bandits because they will have purchased the thing for August delivery today at a price that will be lower than I think the price will be in August when they actually have to deliver.’ —Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, joins us for the SEASON PREMIERE of Going Underground on Saturday Don’t miss it, follow our Rumble channel, link below in the replies👇

Going Underground

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Oil and gas prices in the US and Europe are about to explode higher, and it's not "just a temporary bump." I break it all down in this new video: ➡️ Why the US is still a net importer of actual crude oil (not the NGLs the EIA loves to lump in and call "petroleum") ➡️ How we're already maxed out on export logistics - those tankers can't load any faster ➡️ The massive 8+ million barrels/day shortfall from the Gulf that's not coming back anytime soon ➡️ Why all those "empty" oil tankers heading our way are about to pull product straight out of already-tight inventories This isn't about "we have more oil than the next two countries combined." It's about the right molecules, at the right time, for the right uses. Light shale stuff can't replace what refineries actually need. SPR draws won't save us. And the futures market is about to snap back to reality in a big way. Complexity matters. Get ahead of it while you still can. Discuss this with me over at Peak Prosperity:
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Oil and gas prices in the US and Europe are about to explode higher, and it's not "just a temporary bump." I break it all down in this new video: ➡️ Why the US is still a net importer of actual crude oil (not the NGLs the EIA loves to lump in and call "petroleum") ➡️ How we're already maxed out on export logistics - those tankers can't load any faster ➡️ The massive 8+ million barrels/day shortfall from the Gulf that's not coming back anytime soon ➡️ Why all those "empty" oil tankers heading our way are about to pull product straight out of already-tight inventories This isn't about "we have more oil than the next two countries combined." It's about the right molecules, at the right time, for the right uses. Light shale stuff can't replace what refineries actually need. SPR draws won't save us. And the futures market is about to snap back to reality in a big way. Complexity matters. Get ahead of it while you still can. Discuss this with me over at Peak Prosperity:

Chris Martenson

325,957 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

We're steaming toward tank bottoms, and there's nothing on the political table that might slow it down. Trump wants low oil prices, and he's been able to get them, and he doesn't want to concede anything to Iran. Even if he did, it might not matter, because Israel's going to do what it feels is in Israel's best interests. Prediction: Oil demand is going to remain too high for the circumstances, and all parties will draw down their precious reserves until a true panic sets in. How long before that happens? It could be a couple more months. Full report:
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We're steaming toward tank bottoms, and there's nothing on the political table that might slow it down. Trump wants low oil prices, and he's been able to get them, and he doesn't want to concede anything to Iran. Even if he did, it might not matter, because Israel's going to do what it feels is in Israel's best interests. Prediction: Oil demand is going to remain too high for the circumstances, and all parties will draw down their precious reserves until a true panic sets in. How long before that happens? It could be a couple more months. Full report:

Chris Martenson

14,632 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Everyone is asking why gasoline prices refuse to fall even as oil gets cheaper. The answer has nothing to do with crude supply. China is buying dramatically fewer barrels, pushing crude prices down. But refineries cannot flip a switch and instantly convert that crude into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Inventories were drained during months of disruption. New refinery capacity is years away. So the market has split in two: cheap crude on one side, historically expensive refined fuel on the other. The bottleneck was never about oil in the ground. It is about the world's shrinking ability to turn that oil into usable fuel, in the right place, at the right time. That gap is what shows up at the pump, and it is not closing anytime soon.
2:37

Everyone is asking why gasoline prices refuse to fall even as oil gets cheaper. The answer has nothing to do with crude supply. China is buying dramatically fewer barrels, pushing crude prices down. But refineries cannot flip a switch and instantly convert that crude into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Inventories were drained during months of disruption. New refinery capacity is years away. So the market has split in two: cheap crude on one side, historically expensive refined fuel on the other. The bottleneck was never about oil in the ground. It is about the world's shrinking ability to turn that oil into usable fuel, in the right place, at the right time. That gap is what shows up at the pump, and it is not closing anytime soon.

Jeffrey P. Snider

21,354 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT AN OIL + DOLLAR SHORTAGE The nightmare scenario nobody is talking about right now is what happens if the Dollar skyrockets at the same time as oil. Since the world's oil supply is purchased in Dollars, they are typically inversely correlated. A lower Dollar = increased international demand for oil. The only time we've seen a brief period of oil 🔼 Dollar 🔼 was in 2022, during the economic slowdown. The nightmare scenario we're facing is a global oil supply shortage at the same time as an economic crisis. Both of these compound the demand for Dollars because not only are nations forced to liquidate greater assets to purchase oil, but servicing sovereign debt becomes much more expensive because it's denominated in Dollars. This energy crisis could very well be the beginning of Brent Johnson's Santiago Capital Dollar Milkshake Theory and the United States' plan to take a large portion of its debt out of circulation.
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THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT AN OIL + DOLLAR SHORTAGE The nightmare scenario nobody is talking about right now is what happens if the Dollar skyrockets at the same time as oil. Since the world's oil supply is purchased in Dollars, they are typically inversely correlated. A lower Dollar = increased international demand for oil. The only time we've seen a brief period of oil 🔼 Dollar 🔼 was in 2022, during the economic slowdown. The nightmare scenario we're facing is a global oil supply shortage at the same time as an economic crisis. Both of these compound the demand for Dollars because not only are nations forced to liquidate greater assets to purchase oil, but servicing sovereign debt becomes much more expensive because it's denominated in Dollars. This energy crisis could very well be the beginning of Brent Johnson's Santiago Capital Dollar Milkshake Theory and the United States' plan to take a large portion of its debt out of circulation.

Financelot

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"China took advantage of the historically LOW OIL PRICES to build up their strategic RESERVES. Now, they have ~1.5 BILLION barrels, and that stockpile hasn't gone down... because IRAN is selling MORE oil to CHINA, and so are RUSSIA and VENEZUELA." Carl Zha noted that Beijing prepared for this exact war, and those who claim the US won't be harmed by soaring oil prices are ignoring the fact that the US may have oil... but everything else is "MADE IN CHINA."
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"China took advantage of the historically LOW OIL PRICES to build up their strategic RESERVES. Now, they have ~1.5 BILLION barrels, and that stockpile hasn't gone down... because IRAN is selling MORE oil to CHINA, and so are RUSSIA and VENEZUELA." Carl Zha noted that Beijing prepared for this exact war, and those who claim the US won't be harmed by soaring oil prices are ignoring the fact that the US may have oil... but everything else is "MADE IN CHINA."

Rachel Blevins

74,813 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.
2:23

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,735 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

This hospital would not allow a woman's two support system people to be in the labor and delivery room with the pregnant mother-to-be. The hospital staff claims it was the doctor's decision, and they are not getting any other answers. What could be the reason for this, and does the doctor and hospital have that right? I've never heard of this happening, but I guess it does. Doesn’t seem right to me.
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This hospital would not allow a woman's two support system people to be in the labor and delivery room with the pregnant mother-to-be. The hospital staff claims it was the doctor's decision, and they are not getting any other answers. What could be the reason for this, and does the doctor and hospital have that right? I've never heard of this happening, but I guess it does. Doesn’t seem right to me.

Suzee Q

21,085 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Neil Oliver: "Now we see that those we were raised to call the goodies are actually the baddies." "Democracy was for dupes. Taxes are paid only by the little fella, while the crime lords who run the world print money, launder money, use war as a business model, traffic people, traffic children, and indulge in paedophilia and blood sacrifice as everyday hobbies." "And the steady and ever-accelerating revelation of the nature of our reality has grown time and again from the bravery and stubborn determination of little people... prepared to say what they see and know to be true regardless of the consequences for their careers or anything else." "History is littered with the names of those who spoke up against the official narratives of their time—who were laughed at at least, locked up, tortured, burned at the stake, you name it—and then who, long after they were gone... were revealed to have been right all along." "It might not be easy to tell the truth, but that's precisely why it's worth doing." Credit: Neil Oliver
2:55

Neil Oliver: "Now we see that those we were raised to call the goodies are actually the baddies." "Democracy was for dupes. Taxes are paid only by the little fella, while the crime lords who run the world print money, launder money, use war as a business model, traffic people, traffic children, and indulge in paedophilia and blood sacrifice as everyday hobbies." "And the steady and ever-accelerating revelation of the nature of our reality has grown time and again from the bravery and stubborn determination of little people... prepared to say what they see and know to be true regardless of the consequences for their careers or anything else." "History is littered with the names of those who spoke up against the official narratives of their time—who were laughed at at least, locked up, tortured, burned at the stake, you name it—and then who, long after they were gone... were revealed to have been right all along." "It might not be easy to tell the truth, but that's precisely why it's worth doing." Credit: Neil Oliver

Wide Awake Media

139,858 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos: “How does the United States intend to secure the oil fields? Won’t that take U.S. troops?” Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “Ultimately, this is not about securing the oil fields. This is about ensuring that no sanctioned oil can come in and out until they make changes to the governance of that entire industry.” “Because right now that industry is non-existent in the traditional way. These oil fields basically are pirate operations. People literally steal the oil from the ground, a handful of — that’s how they hold this regime together. A handful of cronies benefit from this oil — specific oil wells. They’re producing at like 18% capacity because the equipment is all decrepit and they basically pocket the money to their benefit. They sell the oil at a discount on global markets, you know 40 cents on the dollar, 50 cents on the dollar.” “But all that money goes to them. Those oil fields have not benefited the people of Venezuela in over a decade. But they have made multi-millionaires, billionaires out of just a handful of people. And that’s what’s held this regime together. That’s what needs to be addressed.”
1:28

ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos: “How does the United States intend to secure the oil fields? Won’t that take U.S. troops?” Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “Ultimately, this is not about securing the oil fields. This is about ensuring that no sanctioned oil can come in and out until they make changes to the governance of that entire industry.” “Because right now that industry is non-existent in the traditional way. These oil fields basically are pirate operations. People literally steal the oil from the ground, a handful of — that’s how they hold this regime together. A handful of cronies benefit from this oil — specific oil wells. They’re producing at like 18% capacity because the equipment is all decrepit and they basically pocket the money to their benefit. They sell the oil at a discount on global markets, you know 40 cents on the dollar, 50 cents on the dollar.” “But all that money goes to them. Those oil fields have not benefited the people of Venezuela in over a decade. But they have made multi-millionaires, billionaires out of just a handful of people. And that’s what’s held this regime together. That’s what needs to be addressed.”

RedWave Press

835,044 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Mamdani: There are neighborhoods today where you can feel the absence of those who do not feel as if they can leave their homes any longer. And now, if New Yorkers want a leader like the governor that we have, who can look at that cruelty and name it for what it is, then they know that the choice is Governor Hochul. If they want a leader who looks at the cruelty of ICE and sees a playbook of what to deliver at an even greater extent in New York State, then that’s Bruce Blakeman. And I know what choice I would make, and I know that New Yorkers feel the same, and we are all standing here because we believe in the values and ideals that make us so proud to be New Yorkers. And then there are those who are willing to traffic in fearmongering, even if it means trampling upon those very ideals, and we will not stand for that.
1:16

Mamdani: There are neighborhoods today where you can feel the absence of those who do not feel as if they can leave their homes any longer. And now, if New Yorkers want a leader like the governor that we have, who can look at that cruelty and name it for what it is, then they know that the choice is Governor Hochul. If they want a leader who looks at the cruelty of ICE and sees a playbook of what to deliver at an even greater extent in New York State, then that’s Bruce Blakeman. And I know what choice I would make, and I know that New Yorkers feel the same, and we are all standing here because we believe in the values and ideals that make us so proud to be New Yorkers. And then there are those who are willing to traffic in fearmongering, even if it means trampling upon those very ideals, and we will not stand for that.

Acyn

98,031 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

10M Barrels Off Market: "10 million barrels a day is still a huge number that's cut off from the market. We're absorbing it with oil on water, drawing down commercial inventories, and pulling from SPR inventories." "We can do that for another month or two, but at some point the gears start to grind on each other. We're gonna hit tank bottoms or the effective tank bottoms." "All of those different routes for crude export are buying you some time. It's just not clear to me how much time it's buying you." "If we got to shut down a bunch of demand, that's a dramatically high price — $125, $150, I don't know what the number is — but it isn't $89, which is where we're sitting today." •PEP CIO Dan Pickering
0:56

10M Barrels Off Market: "10 million barrels a day is still a huge number that's cut off from the market. We're absorbing it with oil on water, drawing down commercial inventories, and pulling from SPR inventories." "We can do that for another month or two, but at some point the gears start to grind on each other. We're gonna hit tank bottoms or the effective tank bottoms." "All of those different routes for crude export are buying you some time. It's just not clear to me how much time it's buying you." "If we got to shut down a bunch of demand, that's a dramatically high price — $125, $150, I don't know what the number is — but it isn't $89, which is where we're sitting today." •PEP CIO Dan Pickering

Trevor Rose

18,768 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

If Russia stops giving India discounted oil, does it mean the Modi–Putin friendship is weakening? A new debate has started in India. Many are asking what happened to the relationship between PM Modi and Vladimir Putin, and why Russia is no longer offering heavy discounts on oil. During the Russia–Ukraine War, Russia sold oil at discounted prices because sanctions reduced its buyers. India took advantage of the situation and purchased large quantities at lower prices. At the same time, the United States criticized India for buying Russian oil, claiming it was indirectly funding the war in Ukraine. But rising global tensions and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil demand higher, allowing Russia to sell its oil at better prices. As S.Jaishankar sir once said, Europe often believes its problems are everyone’s problems, but the world’s problems are not always Europe’s concern. The reality is simple. Global politics runs on national interests, not permanent friendships. Jai Hind. Jai Bharat.🇮🇳
2:59

If Russia stops giving India discounted oil, does it mean the Modi–Putin friendship is weakening? A new debate has started in India. Many are asking what happened to the relationship between PM Modi and Vladimir Putin, and why Russia is no longer offering heavy discounts on oil. During the Russia–Ukraine War, Russia sold oil at discounted prices because sanctions reduced its buyers. India took advantage of the situation and purchased large quantities at lower prices. At the same time, the United States criticized India for buying Russian oil, claiming it was indirectly funding the war in Ukraine. But rising global tensions and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil demand higher, allowing Russia to sell its oil at better prices. As S.Jaishankar sir once said, Europe often believes its problems are everyone’s problems, but the world’s problems are not always Europe’s concern. The reality is simple. Global politics runs on national interests, not permanent friendships. Jai Hind. Jai Bharat.🇮🇳

Praffulgarg

21,500 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will drain commercial inventories, and that means prices have nowhere to go but up. Jeffrey Currie says we are sitting at a low point right now, but the real problem is what comes after. "You may have been wrong on crude oil. I was wrong on crude oil. I'd never seen cracks like this. But my question is, how are you going to turn this stuff into gasoline?" Cheap oil means nothing if you can't refine it. Jeffrey Currie 🆔++
1:41

Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will drain commercial inventories, and that means prices have nowhere to go but up. Jeffrey Currie says we are sitting at a low point right now, but the real problem is what comes after. "You may have been wrong on crude oil. I was wrong on crude oil. I'd never seen cracks like this. But my question is, how are you going to turn this stuff into gasoline?" Cheap oil means nothing if you can't refine it. Jeffrey Currie 🆔++

Mario Nawfal

80,955 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Zio-Trump is living by might makes right. Well he's obeying like a dog for Netanyahu who sits on the Epstein tapes. Nobody wants to live under a dog eat dog moral ethic, where the powerful just does whatever it wants. We don't beat up kids and say oh well you're small. Even US allies are not that stupid. Because it means they have nothing to prevent themselves from being next. Might makes right, is the ideology of a psychopath and a fool. Might makes what is, it does not make it right. And Might is temporal. Right and wrong are real and they exist outside of force. Power allows action it does not make it correct actions just by being able to do it. You live by the sword you die by the sword. Nations aren't people. You can not be the strongest forever. It's completely against the social contract to blowup, burn and starve people for 15 months and then displace 2 million to another area so that fanatic psychopaths can steal their land. This was done to red Indians but with 400 years of violence and losing several US and Spanish armies. In the end they made peace and just lived together how they could have done they entire time and as the French did do for 150 years. We look at those episodes in history with horror. We ended child labor and slavery because of ethical political decisions because we are not animals. If we are going to revert back to if I can do it then it's right, then don't complain when there are constant assisonations. No one is strong all the time.
1:06

Zio-Trump is living by might makes right. Well he's obeying like a dog for Netanyahu who sits on the Epstein tapes. Nobody wants to live under a dog eat dog moral ethic, where the powerful just does whatever it wants. We don't beat up kids and say oh well you're small. Even US allies are not that stupid. Because it means they have nothing to prevent themselves from being next. Might makes right, is the ideology of a psychopath and a fool. Might makes what is, it does not make it right. And Might is temporal. Right and wrong are real and they exist outside of force. Power allows action it does not make it correct actions just by being able to do it. You live by the sword you die by the sword. Nations aren't people. You can not be the strongest forever. It's completely against the social contract to blowup, burn and starve people for 15 months and then displace 2 million to another area so that fanatic psychopaths can steal their land. This was done to red Indians but with 400 years of violence and losing several US and Spanish armies. In the end they made peace and just lived together how they could have done they entire time and as the French did do for 150 years. We look at those episodes in history with horror. We ended child labor and slavery because of ethical political decisions because we are not animals. If we are going to revert back to if I can do it then it's right, then don't complain when there are constant assisonations. No one is strong all the time.

Ryan Dawson

16,046 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Everyone was calling for 200 dollar oil. Traders, money managers, all in on the same trade. Then the futures curve went flat in the space of two weeks. Not because supply got fixed. Supply is still nowhere near normalized. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen unless something else is going on. That something else is demand disappearing faster than the shortage itself. Which means the oil market just quietly started pricing in the same weakness showing up in payrolls, labor force participation, and real incomes. The Fed does not set this signal. The curve does. And right now it is saying the slowdown is already here.
4:52

Everyone was calling for 200 dollar oil. Traders, money managers, all in on the same trade. Then the futures curve went flat in the space of two weeks. Not because supply got fixed. Supply is still nowhere near normalized. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen unless something else is going on. That something else is demand disappearing faster than the shortage itself. Which means the oil market just quietly started pricing in the same weakness showing up in payrolls, labor force participation, and real incomes. The Fed does not set this signal. The curve does. And right now it is saying the slowdown is already here.

Jeffrey P. Snider

30,004 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen