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Deep Inference

@DeepInference • 17,661 subscribers

the more I learn… the more I realize how much I don’t know - Einstein. Partner of @aionanalytics

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Time to set the record straight again. September 24. Crash probability on the S&P had nearly quadrupled in three weeks. I said the crowd was looking at the wrong number and we’d grade it over 20 trading days. October 2. Nasdaq at a new high. I said the smoke was thicker and the window closes October 22. See you then. It’s October 22. VIX up more than 30% in a day. Indices sold off. Semis unwound. The AI trade came apart again. All of it inside the window the models flagged while the index printed highs and the timeline told me they hate me. Where there’s smoke there’s fire. We found it. Most of what I see next goes to Aion research now. But I’ll give you three hints below. Somebody has to, and it clearly isn’t going to be the people calling for blue skies at the end of September. 🧵

Time to set the record straight again. September 24. Crash probability on the S&P had nearly quadrupled in three weeks. I said the crowd was looking at the wrong number and we’d grade it over 20 trading days. October 2. Nasdaq at a new high. I said the smoke was thicker and the window closes October 22. See you then. It’s October 22. VIX up more than 30% in a day. Indices sold off. Semis unwound. The AI trade came apart again. All of it inside the window the models flagged while the index printed highs and the timeline told me they hate me. Where there’s smoke there’s fire. We found it. Most of what I see next goes to Aion research now. But I’ll give you three hints below. Somebody has to, and it clearly isn’t going to be the people calling for blue skies at the end of September. 🧵

52,999 次观看

*Checks where we bottomed*

Checks where we bottomed

12,200 次观看

Let's set the record straight. $SPY $QQQ I called the top in June within a day, the entire drawdown and chop through July, then called the bottom end of July into August. It's all timestamped. I don't do hindsight. I post it live. Here's what I see next. 🧵

Let's set the record straight. $SPY $QQQ I called the top in June within a day, the entire drawdown and chop through July, then called the bottom end of July into August. It's all timestamped. I don't do hindsight. I post it live. Here's what I see next. 🧵

211,570 次观看

If you’re bearish, this is what you’re trading against… And based on this guy’s comment alone, there’s really only one question left: Do the Qs make it below 700 before October is over?

If you’re bearish, this is what you’re trading against… And based on this guy’s comment alone, there’s really only one question left: Do the Qs make it below 700 before October is over?

38,732 次观看

What Jane Street has planned for retail this October:

What Jane Street has planned for retail this October:

111,748 次观看

Since the discount codes expire at the end of August for the Aion Analytics platform, let's do one more review of what the terminal looks like from the inside. Specifically how I used it to catch the March bottom, the June top, and the July bottom. All three posted here before the market confirmed them. Walkthrough and overview below. 🧵

Since the discount codes expire at the end of August for the Aion Analytics platform, let's do one more review of what the terminal looks like from the inside. Specifically how I used it to catch the March bottom, the June top, and the July bottom. All three posted here before the market confirmed them. Walkthrough and overview below. 🧵

106,156 次观看

Dip buyers came in full force today. The question is how heavy you went. Because there’s a world where the bottom isn’t in, and it might be this one. Let me show you why I still see risk on the board. 🧵

Dip buyers came in full force today. The question is how heavy you went. Because there’s a world where the bottom isn’t in, and it might be this one. Let me show you why I still see risk on the board. 🧵

23,825 次观看

I laid the data out for you two weeks ago, in public, for free. I made it clear for months... OCTOBER would be challenging. I called the top in the indices and played it. Now everyone wants to know where the bottom is. My read is we go lower. And honestly I’m getting a little tired of the name calling. The same people doing it are probably sitting red on the year by now. Nobody said this was an easy market. There are people who follow the data and people who don’t. I choose to be one who reads it, makes sense of it, understands it, and positions around it. I’m not sure how much longer I’ll keep putting these out in public. At this point there’s not a lot in it for me. But for now, here’s what I’m looking at as it sits today. 🧵

I laid the data out for you two weeks ago, in public, for free. I made it clear for months... OCTOBER would be challenging. I called the top in the indices and played it. Now everyone wants to know where the bottom is. My read is we go lower. And honestly I’m getting a little tired of the name calling. The same people doing it are probably sitting red on the year by now. Nobody said this was an easy market. There are people who follow the data and people who don’t. I choose to be one who reads it, makes sense of it, understands it, and positions around it. I’m not sure how much longer I’ll keep putting these out in public. At this point there’s not a lot in it for me. But for now, here’s what I’m looking at as it sits today. 🧵

23,340 次观看

Everyone near the highs is pointing at breadth this weekend. Breadth will improve, the rest of the market will catch up, the highs will hold. Here's a quote worth remembering before the week begins. "If everyone is thinking alike, somebody isn't thinking." You're all breadth experts now. Fine. Try this one on. What if the handful of names holding this index up are the next thing to bleed out? Indices a rounding error from the highs, average stock still in drawdown, crash probability elevated and climbing, quarter-end liquidity doing a lot of the lifting, yields at levels the tape hasn't had to digest in years, and oil moving everything on a headline. Take the leaders out of the picture and there is very little underneath. September has three sessions left. October starts Thursday. I'm not going to dance around the data. Let's get into it. 🧵

Everyone near the highs is pointing at breadth this weekend. Breadth will improve, the rest of the market will catch up, the highs will hold. Here's a quote worth remembering before the week begins. "If everyone is thinking alike, somebody isn't thinking." You're all breadth experts now. Fine. Try this one on. What if the handful of names holding this index up are the next thing to bleed out? Indices a rounding error from the highs, average stock still in drawdown, crash probability elevated and climbing, quarter-end liquidity doing a lot of the lifting, yields at levels the tape hasn't had to digest in years, and oil moving everything on a headline. Take the leaders out of the picture and there is very little underneath. September has three sessions left. October starts Thursday. I'm not going to dance around the data. Let's get into it. 🧵

39,740 次观看

I think we both know what comes next.

I think we both know what comes next.

63,821 次观看

He does it again on $AVGO this time… first it bounced off 350 and now it tapped that first ceiling at 375. This astronaut guy really knows how to read a dealer’s hand!

He does it again on $AVGO this time… first it bounced off 350 and now it tapped that first ceiling at 375. This astronaut guy really knows how to read a dealer’s hand!

53,818 次观看

I think we are about to enter a period of INSTABILITY. Let me show you why I think July will be trickier than what most people are prepared for. 🧵 $SPY $QQQ

I think we are about to enter a period of INSTABILITY. Let me show you why I think July will be trickier than what most people are prepared for. 🧵 $SPY $QQQ

81,178 次观看

Nobody wishes for the market to crack. Not you. Not me. So I understand why the bear label keeps getting thrown at me lately. When someone points at the storm clouds, it's easier to be mad at them than at the weather. But I'm not a permabear. I don't sit here hoping the market bleeds. I sit with data until it tells me something real. And lately it keeps repeating itself. Cracks in the structure. Let me show you what I see. 🧵

Nobody wishes for the market to crack. Not you. Not me. So I understand why the bear label keeps getting thrown at me lately. When someone points at the storm clouds, it's easier to be mad at them than at the weather. But I'm not a permabear. I don't sit here hoping the market bleeds. I sit with data until it tells me something real. And lately it keeps repeating itself. Cracks in the structure. Let me show you what I see. 🧵

67,278 次观看

Everyone thinks Semis are going to limit down Monday … Hear me out. Don’t you think a slowdown in the pace of AI development would crack the cybersecurity narrative just a little bit? Maybe a lot?

Everyone thinks Semis are going to limit down Monday … Hear me out. Don’t you think a slowdown in the pace of AI development would crack the cybersecurity narrative just a little bit? Maybe a lot?

24,577 次观看

What happens when the fomo dip buying is met with a second wave of selling? Do you think those same people continue to catch the knife? Or do they create an even bigger cascade of forced sellers? (I think it gets worse).

What happens when the fomo dip buying is met with a second wave of selling? Do you think those same people continue to catch the knife? Or do they create an even bigger cascade of forced sellers? (I think it gets worse).

10,751 次观看

$SPY just posted its lowest full-day volume since 2004… Where did everyone go?

$SPY just posted its lowest full-day volume since 2004… Where did everyone go?

11,150 次观看

Before a storm actually breaks, the signs contradict each other. The pressure drops but the sky is clear. The air goes still while the water gets restless. Animals move before there's anything to see. Nothing agrees, and yet everything is responding to the same thing. That's this market. The data is contradictory on the surface, but underneath, the readings are all reacting to the same building pressure. Most people wait for the sky to change. By then it's already raining. So let's go through the readings one at a time. Because the pressure is telling us a storm is brewing... 🧵

Before a storm actually breaks, the signs contradict each other. The pressure drops but the sky is clear. The air goes still while the water gets restless. Animals move before there's anything to see. Nothing agrees, and yet everything is responding to the same thing. That's this market. The data is contradictory on the surface, but underneath, the readings are all reacting to the same building pressure. Most people wait for the sky to change. By then it's already raining. So let's go through the readings one at a time. Because the pressure is telling us a storm is brewing... 🧵

21,073 次观看

We nailed the August move. So let's talk about where I think this goes next. We close August strong and carry it into early September. Then September gets choppy. Then October gets ugly. Here's why I have it in that order. 🧵

We nailed the August move. So let's talk about where I think this goes next. We close August strong and carry it into early September. Then September gets choppy. Then October gets ugly. Here's why I have it in that order. 🧵

26,454 次观看

I just heard from a top trader and insider at Jane Street that the most hated rally since last year’s most hated rally is days away from beginning. Enjoy the ride.

I just heard from a top trader and insider at Jane Street that the most hated rally since last year’s most hated rally is days away from beginning. Enjoy the ride.

59,858 次观看

One in thirty adults in South Korea got a margin call this month. $SPY $QQQ Most of them were in their twenties. 360,000+ accounts were closed out by their brokers. Not by choice. $38 billion, gone. Then last night the largest cloud on earth reported the best quarter it has ever had. Two facts, same week. This is the dichotomy we face. So let's take a look at where OUR markets stand through quantitative lens. 🧵

One in thirty adults in South Korea got a margin call this month. $SPY $QQQ Most of them were in their twenties. 360,000+ accounts were closed out by their brokers. Not by choice. $38 billion, gone. Then last night the largest cloud on earth reported the best quarter it has ever had. Two facts, same week. This is the dichotomy we face. So let's take a look at where OUR markets stand through quantitative lens. 🧵

17,994 次观看

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Article 6 is out. This one is about year end. There is something on the panels now that was not there when the index was at a record. I put it on the record today, before the tape does. I know December feels like a year away for some of you. It is two months. And most of what will happen in them is already loading. Santa is coming. Want to take a peek into your stocking?

Article 6 is out. This one is about year end. There is something on the panels now that was not there when the index was at a record. I put it on the record today, before the tape does. I know December feels like a year away for some of you. It is two months. And most of what will happen in them is already loading. Santa is coming. Want to take a peek into your stocking?

16,835 次观看 • 2 天前

My second article has gone live. In this article I break down the current short term tail risks, my expectation on the coming months, and how I will be handling the week ahead. For those on the inside, enjoy. 🤜🤛

My second article has gone live. In this article I break down the current short term tail risks, my expectation on the coming months, and how I will be handling the week ahead. For those on the inside, enjoy. 🤜🤛

14,897 次观看 • 11 天前

In 3 days the structure of this market changes. Most traders will notice it WEEKS late. $SPY $QQQ Here's what's shifting below the surface. 🧵

In 3 days the structure of this market changes. Most traders will notice it WEEKS late. $SPY $QQQ Here's what's shifting below the surface. 🧵

92,998 次观看 • 3 个月前

I don't post dealer positioning often. $SPY $QQQ Not because it doesn't matter. Because most of the time it can read noisy if you don't pair it with other data. But right now it looks like the greeks are showing something worth our attention. Let's take a look together. 🧵

I don't post dealer positioning often. $SPY $QQQ Not because it doesn't matter. Because most of the time it can read noisy if you don't pair it with other data. But right now it looks like the greeks are showing something worth our attention. Let's take a look together. 🧵

74,378 次观看 • 2 个月前

Why do I feel like this post is gonna unironically mark the top? Sorry guys, in advance, if it does.

Why do I feel like this post is gonna unironically mark the top? Sorry guys, in advance, if it does.

35,593 次观看 • 1 个月前

Anyone else remember what sentiment was like on July 29? We’re nowhere near it.

Anyone else remember what sentiment was like on July 29? We’re nowhere near it.

22,449 次观看 • 29 天前

The stock market is closed until Tuesday.

The stock market is closed until Tuesday.

20,911 次观看 • 1 个月前

Yesterday's move in tech/chips was one of the most violent one day expansions in participation I've seen this year. Laggards, second tier names, all of it moved at once. The chase is officially on. And the data has an opinion on how long it lasts... 🧵

Yesterday's move in tech/chips was one of the most violent one day expansions in participation I've seen this year. Laggards, second tier names, all of it moved at once. The chase is officially on. And the data has an opinion on how long it lasts... 🧵

13,614 次观看 • 1 个月前

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