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Garrett Bastardi

@garrettmb • 3,304 subscribers

Founder of UmbrellaWx LLC and T3. Chief Product Officer FLASH Weather. Asst. Basketball coach at Concordia Lutheran High School. psu, gig’em. AO1✝️

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Only comment on this Non-Tropical vs Sub-Tropical vs Tropical debate for the Nor'easter, but I don't know of many purely Non-Tropical systems over 25-26C SSTs that generate their own convection by dynamics of a well structured LLC and warm SSTs. I'm not saying the system is tropical, but it's clearly acquiring some Sub-Tropical characteristics and it's broadly ignored. By the agency who should be giving this more evaluation than it is... Let's also not pretend that we haven't seen dozens of these Non-Tropical to Sub-Tropical transitions marked well away from land over the years as at least having the potential to transition, if not fully having done so. That's the continued issue. The goal posts are always moving for systems like these, and for some reason it's the storms that make US impact that tend to have less leniency in classification. Which you would think it would be the opposite. It's not November, it's September and Non-Tropical systems FREQUENTLY acquire Sub-Tropical characteristics at this latitude. Why is it only when it's actually going to impact the CONUS that we go full classroom mode and err on the side of fully NT. This goes to the same issue of not having a recon in a borderline rapidly intensifying TS Edouard earlier this month along the the most susceptible coastline in the country for our energy industry. We have more resources, more data accessibility than ever to modernize the process of tracking these systems, yet the industry still behaves like its 2000. Why isn't there a recon in this system? It will be the most impact storm for the Northeast since probably Sandy(And to be clear I'm not saying this is Sandy). IMO it's a shortcoming that does the industry no good whatsoever.

Only comment on this Non-Tropical vs Sub-Tropical vs Tropical debate for the Nor'easter, but I don't know of many purely Non-Tropical systems over 25-26C SSTs that generate their own convection by dynamics of a well structured LLC and warm SSTs. I'm not saying the system is tropical, but it's clearly acquiring some Sub-Tropical characteristics and it's broadly ignored. By the agency who should be giving this more evaluation than it is... Let's also not pretend that we haven't seen dozens of these Non-Tropical to Sub-Tropical transitions marked well away from land over the years as at least having the potential to transition, if not fully having done so. That's the continued issue. The goal posts are always moving for systems like these, and for some reason it's the storms that make US impact that tend to have less leniency in classification. Which you would think it would be the opposite. It's not November, it's September and Non-Tropical systems FREQUENTLY acquire Sub-Tropical characteristics at this latitude. Why is it only when it's actually going to impact the CONUS that we go full classroom mode and err on the side of fully NT. This goes to the same issue of not having a recon in a borderline rapidly intensifying TS Edouard earlier this month along the the most susceptible coastline in the country for our energy industry. We have more resources, more data accessibility than ever to modernize the process of tracking these systems, yet the industry still behaves like its 2000. Why isn't there a recon in this system? It will be the most impact storm for the Northeast since probably Sandy(And to be clear I'm not saying this is Sandy). IMO it's a shortcoming that does the industry no good whatsoever.

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