Only comment on this Non-Tropical vs Sub-Tropical vs Tropical... debate for the Nor'easter, but I don't know of many purely Non-Tropical systems over 25-26C SSTs that generate their own convection by dynamics of a well structured LLC and warm SSTs. I'm not saying the system is tropical, but it's clearly acquiring some Sub-Tropical characteristics and it's broadly ignored. By the agency who should be giving this more evaluation than it is... Let's also not pretend that we haven't seen dozens of these Non-Tropical to Sub-Tropical transitions marked well away from land over the years as at least having the potential to transition, if not fully having done so. That's the continued issue. The goal posts are always moving for systems like these, and for some reason it's the storms that make US impact that tend to have less leniency in classification. Which you would think it would be the opposite. It's not November, it's September and Non-Tropical systems FREQUENTLY acquire Sub-Tropical characteristics at this latitude. Why is it only when it's actually going to impact the CONUS that we go full classroom mode and err on the side of fully NT. This goes to the same issue of not having a recon in a borderline rapidly intensifying TS Edouard earlier this month along the the most susceptible coastline in the country for our energy industry. We have more resources, more data accessibility than ever to modernize the process of tracking these systems, yet the industry still behaves like its 2000. Why isn't there a recon in this system? It will be the most impact storm for the Northeast since probably Sandy(And to be clear I'm not saying this is Sandy). IMO it's a shortcoming that does the industry no good whatsoever.show more

TROPICAL UPDATE: Invest #97L odds haven't changed the past... 12 hours, still at 70%. I feel the NHC wants to wait until the Hurricane Hunters get a better look at it this thing under the hood. Considering this will be pushing onshore *tomorrow* in TX/LA, I still would have preferred Potential Tropical Cyclone/System to be designated so more tropical weather alerts and communication products could have been issued. For example, my sister is a teacher in the Galveston Bay area. She is under the impression she is going to school Tuesday (along with her kids) because a Tropical Storm Watch/Warning has not been issued yet. The school district needs that additional information to make better decisions. I have a lot of respect for the NHC, I just disagree with them on this one.show more

UPDATE: A tropical wave will be heading towards Florida... by Friday and potentially towards the coastal Carolinas this weekend. It will help to enhance the development of scattered storms and bump up rain chances during that time frame. Shown below are not rainfall totals, but atmospheric moisture levels. Normally Florida is around 1.8" this time of the year and you'll notice the tropical wave brings us up to around 2.1"...helping to bring in more storms. #Floridashow more

UPDATE: A LOT of tropical moisture on the way... across Florida the next 5-10 days. For example, those moisture levels will be 50%-75% above average, which will aid in developing numerous rounds of storms across the state. Values shown are PWATS or precipitable water levels. Around 1.6" is typical this time of the year for Florida, which you'll notice we'll be above the next 7-10 days. Some online chatter about tropical development. Not impossible, but current odds are low. Physics-based models show the potential, AI models largely don't. Rainmaker regardless if it tries to form into a weak tropical/subtropical system or not. We need the rain!show more

TROPICAL UPDATE: Invest #97L in the northern Gulf flaring... up pretty impressive storms this morning. If trends continue, might get a bump to orange or a medium chance of development later today. It has a tight window to try and form before pushing into TX / LA on Tuesday. It's certainly possible to squeak out a quick Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm #Edouard. Water temps are warmer than average for most of the Gulf + low wind shear along its track. What could hurt development is dry air. We'll see, stay tuned...show more

Y'all see this swirl over the Mediterranean passing south... of Benghazi? That's not a hurricane – it's a Medicane. Yes, that's a real term. The word is a portmanteau combining "Mediterranean" and "hurricane." The Mediterranean is too small to support barotropic (tropical cyclones) the scale of conventional hurricanes AND is too far north to support a truly tropical cyclone anyway. Moreover, water temperatures are too cool. (Most tropical cyclones exist over sea surface temperatures of 78 degrees or warmer; the current water temperature off the coast of Libya is about 63 degrees.) Medicanes can and occasionally do reach hurricane strength. The strongest on record was Medicane Ianos, which impacted Greece between September 17-18, 2020. It briefly became the equivalent of a tiny Category 2 hurricane with winds of 95 mph. On rare occasions, a nontropical low can meander over the Mediterranean, and a storm can form that takes on some tropical characteristics. Unlike nontropical cyclones, which are common at the mid-latitudes, medicanes feature a warm core. That requires warm sea surface temperatures. A 2016 study found that medicanes are likely to become significantly stronger by the end of the century in response to warming sea surface temperatures. Tthe researchers found a likelihood for "a higher number of moderate and violent medicanes.” Since 1980, Mediterranean sea surface temperatures have increased between 1 and 2 degrees.show more

So, my opinion on what the Antarctic (Antarctica) Anomaly... is that it's a type of frequency technology. It must be way more powerful than HAARP, as many have claimed it to be, because we would see these anomalies at other HAARP sites, and we don't, not like this. With that said, and I'm very much trying to avoid letting what I want it to be not play a part here, I think it is a technology that is being used either off the coast of Antarctica itself or Bouvet Island. A third possibility is an area just to the northwest of the island that looks odd. It's possible it is a sonar scan from a ship, but why in that remote location? It looks like an antenna set up or rows of something that is out of place. I also believe that the weather events and fires that have taken place in Africa could possibly have been because of this. Each time we saw the anomaly, it was followed by a destructive weather event in Africa. A weird connection to that is we have been told and warned of a very busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. This is in part because of the above-average Atlantic ocean temperatures, which is the fuel to Hurricanes. With all this info, it's possible to see how the Anomaly could be a frequency tech that can manipulate or create weather, And or WARM up the Ocean temps to purposely enhance the Hurricane season and Storm growth. Keep in mind that many of our hurricanes and many of the biggest hurricanes have come from the west coast of Africa and form over the Cape Verde islands before heading towards the Caribbean and the United States. This is all of course speculation, and I'm learning many new things every day, so this idea may morph over time as we learn more. In the end, it is very hard to ignore all these findings. #antarctica #anonaly #AntarcticaAnomaly #BouvetIslandshow more

The previously unnamed Tropical Storm in the shallow Malacca... Strait has since been given the name Senyar. The system made landfall over the city of Langsa in Aceh, Indonesia at a 50 mph (80 kph), 996 mbar peak intensity. But Senyar isn’t done. The storm has now RE-EMERGED into the Malacca Strait and is forecast to soon make a second landfall, this one in Malaysia. While Senyar won’t be very strong (potentially only ~40 mph), a Malaysian landfall by a bonafide tropical cyclone is historically rare, as few storms on record have formed this close to the equator (due to the weakness of the Coriolis Effect here).show more

Big dawg El Niño coming this summer and fall!... This is a bit science-y… but easy I promise. So follow along. You are looking at a vertical cross section of the tropical Pacific Ocean at the Equator with depth downward deep into the ocean. Left side is west near Asia. Right side is east near South America. It’s where we measure El Niño, the king control knob of the climate. One main way we know it’s coming is “subsurface heat”. See the dark red shades moving east under the surface and rising upward? That’s the El Niño developing! El Niño is a build up of hotter than normal water on the surface Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean. What’s cool (or hot) is that the water comes from the West Tropical Pacific. During cool La Niña years it’s like a piggy bank. The West Pacific hoards and stores the heat near Asia. Then every couple-few years that warm water sloshes back East. It first appears under the surface where we measure it. It surfaces in late spring and El Niño grows in Summer to fall. You can tell by the magnitude of warm subsurface water that this looks like a biggie! So how will it impact us? For one, it typically subdues Atlantic hurricane season. That doesn’t mean no storms - just less active than it would have otherwise been. Also it releases lots of Heat… so it super charges heat waves around the planet and floods too - it all tends to be more immense and intense. And you can bet Earth will experience its hottest days on record coming later 2026 into 2027. El Niño is one of the biggest climate forces on Earth and it has a profound impact on world-wide weather because of all the heat released into the atmosphere from the ocean.show more

Andrej Karpathy calls AI Agents slop "Overall, the models... they are not there. And I feel like the industry [...] it's making too big of a jump and it's trying to pretend that this is amazing. And it's not—it's slop! And I think they are not coming to terms with it. And maybe they are trying to fundraise or something like that, I'm not sure what's going on."show more

Sunday September 6, 2026. 10:00 AM: Rain is intensifying... in Los Angeles County thanks to Marie’s axis directly over Los Angeles County. It may not be a hurricane, but it is bringing much more tropical moisture that is coming into the region thanks to a Gulf of Alaskan low axis and the peripheral edges of Marie, which has perfect incoming impulses to the region for a wet Sunday on this Labor Day weekend. #CAwx #LArain #hurricaneseason #Marieshow more

I wanted to test one of the models out... and so I made a chica walking cycle for the fun of it. ============= Please note that it's not suppose to be really accurate to the movie, but have that taste from the movie. THIS IS ALSO NOT RELATED TO MY PROJECT!!show more

It is important that the Mark Rutte is with... us in Ukraine at such a brutal moment of this war, when the Russians have once again disregarded the efforts of the American side. Today, Russia carried out a record strike in terms of the use of ballistic missiles. There were 28 cruise missiles, as well as 43 missiles of various types that approach their targets along a ballistic trajectory and can be intercepted only by Patriot systems. This means that missiles for these systems are needed and that deliveries must be prompt. I discussed this with Mark today, and I hope we will be able to implement everything we agreed on. Thank you, Mark, for your support.show more

OK, I have a definitive word on the CJ... Abrams play from today's Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals game after talking with Elias Sports Bureau on this. This play will stay as a sacrifice fly. The originial ruling of NOT a sacrifice fly was for the exact same reason that I thought, which is that the infielder is not running into the outfield, which is year's past would have been correct As it was explained to me, in past years, an infielder had to be running almost in a straight line towards the outfield wall to be considered "running in the outfield". Here, since he is running, and he ends up further away from home (157 feet) than when he started (145 feet), this is going to count as a sacrifice fly. That definition is changing, in part from this play to help bring greater consistency, and to take some of the guesswork out of it (the argument that he is running into the outfield as opposed to more parallel). Now, folks all the time ask "why doesn't MLB publish the OS Manual" and I always say because it is a living document that can have the wording change, and the wording for this play will be modified to something like "more towards the outfield wall than towards home plate" to eliminate any confusion. The big key to this play is that he was running on a full sprint. Also, and this is helpful for me, but for all fly ball outs that score a run, Elias Saba reviews to ensure consistency. So, yes, it's a sacrifice fly, and now that I have that info from Elias themselves, that sort of settles this one. Sounds like the guidelines for this definition will be changing, either this season, or certainly for next season.show more

The Philippines can’t catch a break in the wake... of Typhoon Kalmaegi (TinoPH), because just as that system heads deeper into the Vietnamese jungle, a new leviathan has emerged from the depths of the Pacific. On the right side of this satellite loop is Tropical Storm Fung-wong, a sprawling embryonic cyclone in the Philippine Sea. She may be weak and disorganized now, but the environment ahead is going to be favorable for rapid intensification. The island of Luzon is her most likely target for landfall. Watch this one closely.show more

In light of the Cybercab event this week, here... are my expectations: Of course the first official Robotaxi rides in a Cybercab will happen. Good chance it's limited to a certain portion of the geofence, especially for the launch event to avoid any edge cases I think Elon will say a few words. Likely nothing we don't already know - thanking the teams and explaining the importance of and vision for Cybercab Frankly though what happens at the event doesn't matter. It's what the Cybercab service looks like the following day. I think best case scenario would be Tesla having ~25 active Cybercabs operating in Austin for a majority of the operating hours (6A - 10P). I think we all need to be prepared for somehwere around ~5-10 Cybercabs to be active for a week or so after the event and then a slow build from there While we don't know how many active Robotaxis Tesla has in Austin, we can guess it's ~50-75 on any given day. I think increasing that fleet by up to 50% is the most we should be hoping for. I think the survey going around where ~50% of people are expecting > 100 Cybercabs to be deployed is overly optimistic. Not that it can't happen, and I'd love to be wrong, it would just be a stark departure from everything we've seen/heard so far This event shouldn't be viewed as a scaling announcement, but rather a beginning of operations and celebration of the Cybercab. I know Elon said over the weekend Tesla is "about to" flood Austin with Cybercabs, but in his mind that could mean later this year with V15, not this week Given Ashok's recent commentary about why they're going broad instead of deep (more different cities instead of higher fleet volume in each), I'd be more impressed with Cybercab starting operations in the other active Robotaxi cities in the following week or two after the event. To me, that would be a great signal that the validation is going well with Cybercab more generally, not just in the Austin geofence where Tesla has extensive data So while this is a huge milestone (no wheel, no pedals, purpose built for autonomy, cost profile, attention-grabbing design etc.), I'm still not expecting to see hundreds of Robotaxis in Austin or other cities until later this year or early '27 $TSLAshow more