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Elon Musk says Tesla will sell a Cybercab to a customer for under 30,000 dollars before 2027. A chartered financial analyst built the model for what one would actually earn you. On Herbert Ong's channel, Soren Basher gave 8 things worth knowing: 1. Fourteen thousand in the worst case
Genius Thinking1,018,859 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
Elon Musk says the AI boom hits a WALL this year when we run out of power to run the chips. He says the whole industry is about to learn a hard lesson in hardware. Chip output is exploding, but electricity is nearly flat everywhere outside China. So the two lines cross this year. He says by the end of the year, we will be making more AI chips than we can actually turn on. Millions of them pile up with nowhere to plug in. In his words, the bottleneck for the next year is not chips, it is raw power. Whoever can turn on the most chips fastest wins the race. In the end, the AI race comes down to one thing: Raw electricity. — Elon Musk (.Elon Musk) on Dwarkesh Patel's (.Dwarkesh Patel) podcast
Genius Thinking3,206,598 görüntüleme • 15 gün önce
Jensen Huang says the first AI supercomputer he ever built had exactly one customer on earth: Elon Musk. Back in 2016, he had just created a machine called the DGX1. It cost $300,000 dollars. He announced it on stage, and the room went completely silent since nobody understood it, so nobody wanted to buy it. Since Elon knew him because Nvidia had built the first self-driving computer for the Tesla Model S, Elon bought & tried it. Elon said he had a small company that could use it. Jensen boxed one up himself and drove it to San Francisco. He carried it up to a room full of researchers. That tiny company turned out to be OpenAI. The machine nobody wanted went on to launch the AI revolution. — Jensen Huang (.Jensen Huang)
Genius Thinking1,269,767 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce
Elon Musk says steel killed carbon fiber on Starship at one-fiftieth the cost. Carbon fiber was supposed to be the future of rocketry. Lighter than aluminum. Stronger than steel. Trusted by every Formula 1 team. SpaceX picked it for Starship. "Particularly if you go for a high-strength specialized carbon fiber that can handle cryogenic oxygen, it's roughly 50 times the cost of steel." Then progress stalled. The autoclaves needed to cure the resin had to outsize every autoclave on Earth, and the team couldn't even produce a clean barrel section without wrinkles. Musk, watching the Mars timeline slip: "At this rate, we're never going to get to Mars. So we've got to think of something else." So he asked the question nobody at SpaceX had asked: "What about steel?" It became known as the cryogenic stainless flip. Musk, who had already shipped Falcon 9 in aluminum-lithium, broke with the textbook. "When you look at the material properties of stainless steel, full-hard, strain hardened stainless steel, at cryogenic temperature the strength to weight is actually similar to carbon fiber." Starship ran on cryogenic methane and oxygen. The airframe lived at temperatures that flipped steel ahead of carbon fiber. "You could smoke a cigar while welding stainless steel." After Musk made the call, steel weighed less than the carbon fiber version. Fifty times cheaper in raw material. Twice the heat tolerance. Half the heat shield mass. Musk, looking back: "In retrospect, we should have started with steel in the beginning. It was dumb not to do steel." What "obvious" material in your work is silently costing you the project? — Elon Musk (.Elon Musk , CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's (.Dwarkesh Patel) podcast
Genius Thinking335,161 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce
Everyone is certain AI is about to create a permanent underclass. Tobi Lütke can't find it in Shopify's data, where someone makes their first ever sale every 36 seconds. Here's how he thinks AI will affect society instead: 1) Everyone becomes a 7/10 at everything
Genius Thinking449,868 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce
Elon Musk believes we're living through the singularity right now, where technological growth accelerates beyond human control. On Peter Diamandis's podcast, he shared 8 predictions about what's coming: 1) We're heading for universal high income and social unrest, together
Genius Thinking303,720 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce
CEO and founder of Dell, Michael Dell, says one piece of information killed Compaq. And they had it printed on every chip they shipped. He cracked open their machines and read the date codes. "If you opened up the computers, the chips had dates on them that showed the weeks they were made." Compaq carried 90 days of inventory between factory and customer. Dell carried five. Component prices fell every quarter. Compaq's 90-day shelf was a 90-day price loss. Dell's five-day shelf was a five-day discount. Same machines. Same components. Half the overhead. "It was crazy. It was like a massive advantage." Compaq's CEO called Dell a "mail-order company." A "garage operation." He never read the date codes. "One of the best things was they just didn't understand it. They misunderstood it, which was fantastic." Dell is worth over $90 billion. Compaq does not exist. The number was sitting on their own warehouse shelves the entire time. — Michael Dell (Michael Dell 🇺🇸) on David Senra's (David Senra) Founders podcast
GeniusThinking1,512,825 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Elon Musk says Starlink will soon run on a single account that covers your home internet and your phone. The idea is simple. High-speed internet beamed straight from satellites to your phone. • No carriers • No cell towers • No middlemen in between If it works the way he promises, dead zones stop existing. You could stream HD video from the middle of the ocean, deep in a desert, or anywhere else on the planet. With this, SpaceX is taking aim at the entire telecom industry, phones and internet alike. One account, one company, and suddenly the whole world is covered. — Elon Musk (.Elon Musk)
Genius Thinking57,722 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce
School spent 18 years teaching you a reflex that destroys real conversations. Conor Neill puts it plainly: "You finish your pitch and the customer says, 'Your product is too expensive!' You arrive home a few minutes late, your partner says, 'You are always late.' There's a dirty plate left on the table 'You never wash the dishes.' What do you say in this moment?" Here's the trap Neill identifies: "Most of you, me included, went through 14 years of school where we were taught one way to respond to questions. Teacher asks, 'How do you spell cats?' Student: 'C-A-T.' Teacher asks, 'What is osmosis?' Student explains in detail. For 14 years, you've been taught to give answers to questions. If you went to university, you probably had another 3 or 4 years of giving answers to questions." And that conditioning costs you: "In real life in persuasion, in getting to what the other person is really about, what their needs really are, the worst thing you can do is give an answer to a question." Watch what happens when you answer: "If someone says, 'Your product is too expensive,' and you say, 'No it's not! It's only €1,000'; you've lost every chance to understand what else is behind their reasoning. If you get home and your partner says, 'You're always late!' and you say, 'No, no, no, Tuesday I was definitely here on time', you're gonna have a crap weekend." Why does the brain default to this? "When your partner says, 'You're always late,' emotion goes up. And what happens? The thinking part disconnects. The way to make someone stupider is to insult them, object to them, tell them they are wrong. When you're asked a question, there's an emotional reaction, and the higher emotion goes, the lower thinking goes." And it won't fix itself without work: "If you don't practice this response, you're not going to be able to do it in the moment. If you don't practice repeatedly how you'll respond to 'You're always late,' 'You never wash the dishes,' 'Your product is too expensive,' 'Your competitor is better,' 'You failed us 3 years ago,' 'I don't trust your company', you're not going to be able to do it in the heat of the moment." The alternative Neill teaches: "When you are asked a question or given an objection, I want you to say: 'I understand.' And repeat in your words what they're saying. Then give an open question back." In practice: "'Your product is too expensive!' → 'I understand that money is an important factor for you. What other criteria will be used in making this decision?'" He calls this Conversation Aikido: "Martial arts are about using the energy and force of the opponent against them. In Judo, if someone punches you, you pull their arm and allow the energy to keep flowing. In Aikido, the concept is you go toward the punch. You go toward the energy. If someone punches you, if someone asks you a question, if someone objects, the Aikido method is to go toward them and see the world from their view." For the harder personal moments: "'You're always late!' → 'I understand you feel frustrated.' 'I understand you feel let down.' You'll have to work on this quite a few times over the next 10 years to find the set of words that captures what the other person feels, what's behind it. Then ask: 'What can we do now?' 'What happened during the day?' 'What would you like to talk about?'" By defending, you go blind: "When a client says 'You're too expensive' and you say 'No, we're not!' you learn nothing about who else they're considering, what other criteria are important, what process they've gone through, who else is involved in the decision." Neill's guarantee: "By giving the answer, we shut down the possibility of hearing what's really going on in the other person's mind. But if you say 'I understand,' accept the energy coming from the other person, and give back an open question, I guarantee that if you do it 4 times, the answer to your 4th open question begins to be the real underlying need, issue, or interest of the person you're listening to."
Genius Thinking337,562 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Elon Musk says acquiring Twitter and electing Trump were the same bet... In two years, Musk had spent $44 billion buying Twitter and millions backing one candidate. Critics called it pure ego. Or politics. Or the end of his reputation. He spent another billion ignoring them. Musk had a different framing. "Those actions were good for civilization." Twitter. The election. America's runway. He named the framework: **the civilization hedge**. Musk, whose mission was extending consciousness off Earth, viewed Earth as the precondition. A SpaceX that built Mars colonies and a Tesla that scaled Optimus to billions of units required America to stay coherent for at least the next thirty years — a runway that depended on which laws got written, which agencies got built, and which speech got allowed. "America needs to be strong enough to last long enough to extend life to other planets." A platform with the speech he wanted. An administration with the policies he needed. A civilization with the runway to leave Earth. After Musk made the bets, his goal was unchanged — extending consciousness still required Earth functional. Musk, on the bet underneath both moves: "And to get AI and robotics to the point where we can ensure that the future is good." What's the bet you're making that nobody around you understands? P.S. I made a full playbook breaking down the timeless decision-making mental models used by history's greatest thinkers. So if you want to stop overthinking, control chaos, and navigate any decision with the clarity... Comment "models" and follow GeniusThinking so I can DM you a copy. If you're new here, follow GeniusThinking for content the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. — Elon Musk ( Elon Musk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( Dwarkesh Patel ) podcast
GeniusThinking1,126,699 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Elon Musk says one constraint blocks every Starbase hire: Their partner's job. Brownsville, Texas. Population 187,000. The nearest tech hub: Austin. 350 miles north. Engineers had to relocate everything. Houses sold. Schools researched. Career ladders restarted. "Getting engineers to move… I call it the significant other problem." A spouse with a career. Kids in school. A partner's job market. The technical work was the easy part of recruiting. The recruiting problem started somewhere else. Then Musk explained why Brownsville was a harder sell than Silicon Valley. "For Starbase that was particularly difficult, since the odds of finding a non-SpaceX job… are pretty low." He named the constraint: **the significant other problem**. A name the recruiters used, the engineers admitted, and the partners felt first. Musk, who had moved his own household to Texas for SpaceX, had paid the same tax. And kept Tesla majority in California, where the talent could still spouse-shop. A startup hire at a Silicon Valley campus could promise their spouse a dozen recruiters within driving distance, while a Starbase hire could promise rocketry, palm trees, and almost nothing else by way of secondary employment. "It's quite difficult. It's like a technology monastery thing, remote and mostly dudes." One household. Two careers. One Brownsville. Two careers and one zip code rarely worked out. After Musk named the problem, the recruiting funnel narrowed to the single, retired, and remote-spouse. Musk, on what the technology monastery cost: "Not much of an improvement over SF." What's the constraint on hiring at your company that has nothing to do with the work? P.S. I made a full playbook breaking down the timeless decision-making mental models used by history's greatest thinkers. Comment "models" and follow GeniusThinking so I can DM you a copy. — Elon Musk ( Elon Musk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( Dwarkesh Patel ) podcast
GeniusThinking925,168 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Patrick Collison started building Stripe in 2009, back when the word fintech didn't exist yet. On stage at Y Combinator, he exposed 8 facts about starting a company that go against 97% of what founders were taught: 1) 2026 won't be the last good year to start a company
GeniusThinking241,532 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Peter Thiel says airlines made almost zero profit in 100 years. He says airlines are far bigger than Google by revenue. Yet across their entire history, the profits add up to about zero. Google is much smaller but worth far more. He says value comes from two things. You create it, and you capture it. Airlines create enormous value and capture almost none of it. Creating value is worthless if you cannot keep it. — Peter Thiel's (.Peter Thiel) 2014 Stanford University lecture.
Genius Thinking130,835 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce