Hanako
@hanakoxbt • 10,635 subscribers
Building my name | ai researcher | dm is open
Videos
Anthropic Claude Code engineer: "If you're watching Claude write code, you're the QA tester. That's not what you're paid for." In 37 minutes he lays out how to get your keyboard out of the hot path entirely. The shift is /loop. You tell Claude to wake up every 10 minutes and babysit your PRs, and it just does it, while you're nowhere near the laptop. Routines do the same in the cloud, so the work keeps running with your machine closed. He caps it with remote control: any session, on any surface, driven from your phone. Watch the full talk, then grab the setup below.
Hanako673,285 次观看 • 6 天前
Anthropic engineer: "The agent doesn't remember anything. So we built a second set of agents whose only job is to dream about the first ones." They wait until you log off, then reopen every session you ran, fact-check the first agents, merge the duplicates, and burn anything that went stale. One dreaming agent per session, up to 100 at once, built to miss nothing. 95% of the tokens come back cached, so an entire memory rewrite costs almost zero. This is the part of the workflow nobody is talking about yet. Watch the full workshop, then save the setup below.
Hanako332,690 次观看 • 16 天前
a Citadel intern told me something at a party he probably shouldn't have it was on a rooftop in brooklyn. i mentioned i trade prediction markets. he got quiet for a second. "we have a model for that. it scores every contract on four factors. when all four align we enter. when any breaks we exit. that's it" i asked what the four factors are. he looked around. then said it fast like he was confessing. "cross-market divergence. disposition coefficient. capital velocity. pair network correlation" I didn't know what half of that meant. but i memorized it. went home. 11pm. opened Claude. "here are four scoring factors from a quant fund. build a terminal that runs all four on prediction markets" Claude asked one question: "Where's the data?" I sent him one repo: 86 million trades. every wallet. every entry. every outcome three weeks later i'm sitting in my apartment watching a screen i barely understand print money. the disposition meter alone changed everything. it measures how you exit - not how you enter. top wallets capture 86% of winner value and cut losers at 12%. everyone else captures 58% and holds losers to 41%. same exact entries. the exits make it a completely different game. capital velocity: 49x. every dollar gets recycled 49 times before the average trader recycles once. the terminal found 42 pair correlations across 11 markets. when MSFT beats Q3 is priced at 80c but the model reads 93% - it enters. when the gap closes 2 hours later - it exits. no opinions. no news. just four numbers that either align or don't. his fund runs this with a floor of PhDs and $800M AUM. my setup: > Claude - $20/month > VPS - $5/month > poly_data repo - free > Polymarket API - free $25/month. no team. no office. no Bloomberg. 280 trades so far. 70% win rate. $800 seed. four bots splitting the work: pulse_alpha +$299. arb_hunter +$558. trend_rider +$337. cal_engine +$719. +$11,514 total. copytrade here: he texted me last week. "delete everything i told you" too late.
Hanako1,735,870 次观看 • 2 个月前
an ex-Citadel quant told me a salary is a short position on your own time we were at a dinner in new york. friend of a friend. he asked what i do. "software engineer. $4,200 a month" he said one simple thing "you're mass-selling the most valuable asset you have. your hours. at a fixed price. with no upside. that's a short position on your own life" i didn't have a response. then he showed me his phone. a terminal. live trades. +$39,453 running for 6 weeks. "i built this with Claude Opus 4.7 and one open source dataset. took a weekend. haven't touched it since" i asked how. "gave Opus one repo and one prompt. find who wins on prediction markets. find why. copy their edge" 2,900 stars. 36GB. every trade on Polymarket and Kalshi. every wallet. every resolution. Opus read the whole dataset friday night. by sunday it had a live terminal scanning 1,400 markets per hour. 8 detectors running in parallel. entering when void score exceeds 90. exiting when it drops below 75. no human override. > Senate filibuster. locked at 42c. now 98c. +$1,133. > Neuralink approval. entered 52c. now 98c. +$1,396. > Fed 0% rate. entered 35c. now 97c. +$1,147. > BTC 250K. entered 8c. now 98c. +$1,258. > Megaquake. entered 6c. now 97c. +$1,039. the part that broke something in me: latency arbitrage. Polymarket updates in 19ms. Kalshi in 63ms. the bot trades the 44ms gap between them. automatically. every time. "we had four people at Citadel doing what your bot does with latency alone" copy mirror tracking 6 positions: > Senate fili +$1,252. void signal. 10%. > BTC 250K +$958. zero signal. 2%. > Neuralink +$1,384. sign signal. 9%. > Fed 0% +$863. fill signal. 8%. > Megaquake +$1,070. bridge signal. 18%. > META AI +$979. gas signal. 5%. 972 trades. 83% win rate. kelly f+ 0.101. avg profit $10.65. drawdown -1.4%. maker rebate tracker collecting $203 across four platforms while the bot trades. Polymarket +$114. Kalshi +$40. dYdX +$28. Betfair +$21. $1,800 seed. +$39,453. i quit the next morning. one email. "i'm done. thank you for everything." copytrade setup: texted him a week later. "you ruined a perfectly stable career" he replied "no. i closed your short position"
Hanako378,935 次观看 • 2 个月前
an ex-Jane Street trader told me a paycheck is the most overpriced contract there is we were at a rooftop bar in tel aviv. friend of a friend. i told him i work in tech. $4,200/month after taxes. he showed me his phone. a terminal. green numbers. +$47,000. last 30 days. "Claude and one GitHub repo. that's the whole setup" i asked what he means. "copy-trading. but not how everyone else does it" he explained it fast. like he'd said it a hundred times. "most people copy wallets by win rate. useless. a wallet with 85% wins can still lose money. what matters is disposition ratio" he pulled up a wallet. 91% win rate on crypto. 14% on politics. "copy everything - you bleed. copy only their crypto - top 1% of the platform" i went home. couldn't sleep. opened Claude at 2am. "build a copy engine. filter by disposition ratio above 0.70. copy only dominant category per wallet. kelly sizing" gave it this: almost 1k stars. execution engine. order book logic. position sizing. open source. Claude rebuilt the whole system in one night. first week: +$3,200. second: +$2,900. third: +$2,100. fourth: +$1,648. +$9,848 total. 313 trades. 80% win rate. avg hold 5h. the wallets it copies now aren't the highest win rate. they're the best exits. 0xe41f8...b has $43.4K profit. tech only. disposition 0.82. 0xa22c3...d has $40.2K. crypto only. disposition 0.79. 0xf88d2...c has $22.4K. macro only. disposition 0.74. category P&L: > crypto +$974 > weather +$749 > politics +$409 > macro +$353 > sports -$50. killed it capital velocity: 51x. kelly f+ 0.073. drawdown -2.9%. copytrade: saw him two weeks later. showed him the terminal. he scrolled through it. "you built this in one night?" Claude did. "my old desk had 14 people on this" mine costs less than a Netflix subscription. he nodded. "quit your job" i'm thinking about it.
Hanako310,428 次观看 • 2 个月前
a Goldman Sachs engineer sat next to me on a delayed flight from JFK four hours on the tarmac. nowhere to go. we started talking. i told him i trade prediction markets with Claude. he almost choked on his ginger ale. "you do WHAT with an AI?" i showed him my terminal. he went quiet. scrolled through it for two full minutes. "this is close to what we run internally. how did you get the scoring model?" i told him. one GitHub repo with 2,600 stars. Claude connected the dots. official Polymarket framework. LLM-powered trading agents. open source. free. i gave Claude the repo and said: build me a grid that scans 700+ markets per hour and enters when the edge exceeds 9 cents. he didn't ask twice. the Goldman guy kept scrolling. "you have a disposition meter. a kelly gauge. a correlation matrix. we spent $4M building this infrastructure" i told him my total cost. Claude $20/mo + VPS $5/mo he laughed. not the funny kind. that was three weeks ago. today the terminal shows: +$16,976. 439 trades. 73% win rate. avg hold 7h. > Falcon Heavy - mkt 68c. model 95c. +$716. > MSFT antitrust - mkt 59c. model 77c. +$670. > Blizzard NY - mkt 74c. model 85c. +$772. > BOJ rate hike - mkt 52c. model 60c. +$422. four bots split everything: - pulse_alpha +$299. - arb_hunter +$558. - trend_rider +$337. - cal_engine +$719. kelly fraction 0.118. correlation matrix tracking 6 asset pairs. when one breaks - something is wrong. the grid trades it. copytrade here: he DM'd me yesterday. "i showed your screenshot to my desk. they want to know who built your infra" i said Claude. he said "seriously" i said seriously.
Hanako286,165 次观看 • 2 个月前
a Palantir data scientist saw my trading terminal from across a hotel lobby in manhattan i had my laptop open. wasn't hiding it. entropy gauge pulsing. cryo scanner running. live P&L climbing. she was checking in. stopped mid-sentence at the front desk. walked over. "that's a signal intelligence grid. who do you work for" i told her i don't work for anyone. i built this with Claude Opus 4.7 and one GitHub repo. she sat down on the couch next to me. "i build these for defense clients. anomaly detection. propagation analysis. entity clustering. we charge seven figures annually" she asked to see the screen. i turned the laptop. the cryo scanner had just frozen a market. entropy below 1.86. price flat. volume dead. but underneath three fresh wallets were accumulating the same obscure contract. Platinum $12. nobody trades platinum on Polymarket. "that's a latent coordination detector. we have a classified version. yours is running on what?" $25 a month. Claude plus a VPS. she didn't respond to that. i told her Opus 4.7 built the whole system from this: 29,500 stars. agentic coding framework. multi-agent orchestration. skill system. plugin architecture. i gave it one prompt friday night: build 8 parallel detectors for prediction market anomalies it read the framework. spawned sub-agents for each detector. entropy. mempool. topology. propagation. cluster analysis. flow pressure. oracle lag. cryo freeze. live by saturday morning. first trade by noon. she pointed at the topology map. "you're tracking price deltas across four platforms simultaneously. Polymarket. Kalshi. Betfair. oracle feeds. in real time" i nodded. "with latency under 200 milliseconds" 31ms on the Polymarket API. 54ms on oracle. 14ms on chain. copy mirror tracking 6 positions: > NK summit deal +$788. entropy signal. > Lunar gateway +$918. cluster signal. > Typhoon Pacific +$889. mempool signal. > BTC 150K Mar +$661. topo signal. > ECB cut Dec +$587. propagation signal. > AMZN split +$721. cryo signal. 516 trades. 78% win rate. avg hold 3h. sharpe 2.86. +$19,796 from $1,400 seed. 4 weeks. copytrade setup here: she closed my laptop lid halfway and looked at me. "we bill $1.2M a year for a system that does less than this" i said i know. she handed me her card. "when your AI builds something for defense let me know" it already did. she just saw it on a prediction market instead.
Hanako223,318 次观看 • 2 个月前
a drunk Jane Street quant drew his trading system on a napkin it started as a joke. someone's friend at a bar in lower manhattan. he mentioned prediction markets and this guy lit up. "i do this for a living. for a firm you've heard of" two rounds later he was drawing on a napkin. boxes. arrows. labels. "the crowd repeats six mistakes every single day. we just built detectors for each one" > base rate neglect > mispriced conditionals > thin book slippage > platform divergence > favourite bias > time decay "that's the whole system" i asked what it costs to run. "200 quants. proprietary infra. about $2M/year just to keep it on" i laughed. photographed the napkin. went home. 3am. couldn't sleep. opened Claude. fed it the photo and one GitHub repo - poly_data. 86 million trades. every wallet. every entry. said: build detectors for all six. by 4AM my laptop fan was screaming. 400+ markets scanning per hour. 8 agents deployed. terminal live. i didn't understand half of what was on screen. but the P&L number kept climbing. +$312 by breakfast. +$1,900 by end of day one. +$7,400 by end of week one. +$16,474 right now. 383 trades. 81% win rate. the scanner finds gaps like: > AAPL earnings - crowd says 77%. data says 91%. > Gold $2600 - crowd says 44%. model says 60%. > Senate filibuster - crowd says 68%. base rate says 82%. enters. waits 6 hours average. exits when the gap closes. politics at 93%. weather 79%. crypto 72%. eight agents split the work. one mirrors whales. one catches Binance lag. one fades favourites. one bleeds theta on dying contracts. his firm runs this with 200 people. mine runs on $25/month. copytrade here: texted him the screenshot yesterday. long pause. "you're not supposed to be able to do this" i know.
Hanako244,132 次观看 • 2 个月前
i told Claude to scan every Polymarket wallet and GitHub repo woke up to +$3,582. the terminal was still running on my screen. it analyzed thousands of wallets overnight. most of them bleed money. but 340 had something different - asymmetric payouts. entering at 27 cents. exiting at 91. losing 27 cents when wrong. winning 64 when right. you only need to be right 1 in 4 times. they were right half. Claude found 3 patterns: category specialists - one wallet: 91% wr on crypto. 14% on politics. total looks average. filter to crypto only - top performer. speed arbitrage - 47 wallets entering 3-8 seconds after Binance moved. before Polymarket updated. not predicting. just faster. near-zero accumulation - buying at 2-8 cents weeks before resolution. $8 in, $200 out. hundreds of times. it connected GitHub repos to run all three: > poly_data - scanned every wallet and entry price. > polyterm - whale tracking and insider detection. > py-clob - placed the orders. 7 wallets copied. 204 trades. $25 seed. +$3,582. 6 agents running: > sigma_decay - 78% conviction > darkpool_7 - 87% > velvet_void - 85% > profitprinter - 54% the equity curve tells the whole story. $25 to $3,582 without a single dip worth mentioning. sharpe 2.09. copytrade here: 87% of Polymarket is exit liquidity. the question is which side you're on.
Hanako250,943 次观看 • 2 个月前
I asked Claude to build me a MiroFish God View terminal it showed me 56 live agents that simulate real world each agent has memory, personality, and behavior they form groups. develop leaders. shift opinions in real time I feed it a scenario: "Fed cuts rates by 50bps" 56 digital humans reorganize in seconds retail agents panic buy YES on Polymarket. institutional agents fade the move opinion leaders wait the terminal maps every shift live throughput: 5,000 ops/s latency: 23ms 2.1M tokens processed per cycle zero errors I watch the consensus form before Polymarket prices it > monday: injected "US-China military standoff in Taiwan Strait" agents split instantly - 39 rushed YES on "conflict before 2027" bought YES at $0.08 before the herd moved Polymarket moved to $0.29 by tuesday +$1,840 > wednesday: injected "S&P500 drops 3% intraday" 48 of 56 agents shifted bearish in 9 seconds loaded YES on "S&P500 below 5000 by July" at $0.12 contract hit $0.31 by friday +$2,470 > sunday: injected "Trump announces new tariffs on EU" herd effect kicked in - retail agents mass-bought YES institutional agents faded at peak I followed the institutions. bought NO at $0.22 settled at $0.71 monday morning +$3,048 total: $7,358 in 7 days from scenarios that haven't happened yet the god view doesn't predict price it predicts how people bet and people move the odds one terminal. 56 agents. zero team copytrade here: you don't need to predict events you need to predict how Polymarket reacts to them
Hanako304,068 次观看 • 3 个月前
Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO: "If a $500,000 engineer didn't burn at least $250,000 on tokens, I am going to be deeply alarmed." He compared it to a chip designer refusing to touch CAD tools and reaching for paper and pencil instead. That's how he sees an engineer who barely uses Claude. Every engineer at Nvidia is about to run a hundred agents at once. He replaced a whole software stack in 90 minutes on a Sunday night, then went to bed. The skill he wants isn't writing code. It's knowing how to spend $250k of compute and still ship something great. Watch the full interview, then read the breakdown below
Hanako41,677 次观看 • 16 天前
a drunk Chinese friend who works as a quant slipped me a napkin with 8 words on it we were at a rooftop in tel aviv. he was three cocktails past the professional filter. i mentioned prediction markets. he laughed. grabbed a napkin from the bar. scribbled in english. "disposition. category. velocity. cross-market. news. volume. whale. theta." i asked what it means. "eight signals. every mistake on these markets is one of them. we run detectors in parallel. enter only when three or more fire" i asked how long it took to build. "two years. fourteen quants" i asked if i could just do it myself. he laughed harder. "with Claude? tonight probably" i don't think he meant to say that part. he looked at the napkin like he regretted writing it. too late. i pocketed it. went home. opened Claude at 11PM. typed the eight words. "build a parallel detector grid on prediction markets. 8 signals. enter only when 3 or more fire simultaneously" Claude needed a backbone. i gave it: 610 stars. market making bot. order book execution on both sides. position sizing. the foundation for anything that needs to place real orders fast. terminal was live by 2AM. the radar lights up 14 times per hour. most signals fire alone. rare ones stack. last week: > BRICS summit - 74c. 4 signals. +24c in 3h. > Artemis launch - 63c. 5 signals. +33c in 5h10m. > Helium-3 demo - 68c. 3 signals. +14c in 48m. > Waymo public - 67c. 4 signals. +8c in 6m. sentiment feed reads 4 platforms: - X/CT: 56% bearish - Reddit: 53% - Telegram: 17% - Discord: 75% when sentiment diverges from flow pressure by 20%+ the contrarian signal fires. 83% win rate on those. cross-market delta catches gaps: BTC 92K vs Kalshi 7.7c Fed cut vs PredictIt 7.2c AAPL>180 vs Manifold 5.7c oracle delta tracks NOAA, AP, CoinGecko, Reuters. when a feed moves before the market adjusts, the bot enters on the lag. 6 wallets copied by dominant category: > 0xe41f8...b2 - $483 profit. 83% wr. > 0xa22c3...d9 - $890. 67%. > voltwhale - $593. 55%. > 0xf88d2...c4 - $830. 73%. 412 trades. 76% win rate. avg hold 5h22m. best $232. worst -$37. 9 consecutive wins. +$12,640. from a $900 seed. 4 weeks live. copytrade setup: i haven't seen him since that night. the napkin is still in my drawer. i don't think he remembers writing it.
Hanako156,597 次观看 • 2 个月前
my Claude built a Liquidity Sniper terminal that eats market overreactions +$3,082 while I was asleep. thin books, fat profits 251 snipes across 500 markets in under two hours every one triggered by low liquidity and a price that overshot too far the logic: when liquidity is low, prices overshoot. when prices overshoot, they revert. the bot sits and waits for exactly that moment. Hurricane FL - everyone panic-sold when the forecast dropped. book went thin. bot entered at $0.35. reverted to $0.42 in 11 minutes. +$287. Trump OH - breaking news spike. price shot up on emotion. bot caught the overreaction. entry $0.59. reverted. +$194. Senate bill - market moved on a rumor. zero liquidity on the ask side. bot sniped at $8.45. reverted 112%. +$371. avg revert time: 17 minutes. bot enters, waits, exits. nothing else. the spike feed doesn't stop: mech Miami flood +15.5% - SNIPE info Dogecoin +7.9% - SKIP mech eth>5k Q2 +5.8% - SNIPE SKIP means liquidity is fine. SNIPE means the book is thin and the price is wrong. > markets scanned: 500 > scan rate: 30sec > win rate: 88.8% > active snipes: 251 P&L curve - no dips. just stairs going up. bot doesn't predict events. it reads liquidity. when it's thin - it strikes. copytrade: the market overreacts. this bot is already there waiting.
Hanako181,050 次观看 • 2 个月前
a Renaissance intern posted his model on GitHub for 6 hours before deleting it someone in a Discord dropped the link at 1am. "this looks real. star count is zero. repo is 4 hours old. readme has internal formatting" i clicked. it was a full prediction market scoring model. four filters: > disposition ratio > category dominance > capital velocity > volume exit triggers clean Python. commented like someone who writes for a team. the readme said "internal use - do not distribute" i ran git clone so fast i typo'd the first attempt. by 3am the repo was gone. mass-deleted. commits. branches. everything. but i had it. opened Claude. gave it the code and one public repo: 2,600 stars. official framework. LLM-powered trading agents. "merge this scoring model with this execution layer. build a terminal that runs all four filters on live markets" Claude had it running by sunrise. first three days i was terrified it would break. kept checking every hour. it didn't break. it just kept scoring and entering. > AMD Xilinx - entered 52c. model said 59c. closed +7c in 2h. > Artemis launch - entered 63c. model said 85c. closed +22c in 5h. > Derecho MW - entered 71c. model said 87c. closed +16c in under 2h. disposition filter kills everything below 0.70 automatically. no override. every wallet it copies is filtered to one category. crypto wallet copies crypto. weather wallet copies weather. nothing crosses. 87% win rate. 34 markets. +$12,685. 6 strategies running simultaneously: base rate. conditional prob. liquidity snipe. delta hedge. calibration. theta decay. spread arb catching gaps live: - BTC 92K vs Kalshi gap 0.3c - Fed cut vs PredictIt gap 3.7c - Derecho vs Betfair gap 11.9c copytrade setup here: cost: Claude and a VPS. cheaper than the mass-deleted repo was worth. i checked his GitHub profile last week. still active. new repos. normal stuff. he has no idea someone cloned it. and now you're reading what was in it.
Hanako117,572 次观看 • 2 个月前
i fed Claude 5 PhD formulas and asked him to build me a terminal he didn't ask questions. he built MiroFish 274 agents. 4 quant formulas running live each one doing what 87% of polymarket traders can't every 5 seconds the terminal does this: > scans polymarket contracts > runs bayes update on every new signal > calculates EV against market price > sizes position through ¼ kelly > checks KL-divergence across correlated markets for arbitrage no opinions. no "i feel like YES is underpriced" just math that PhD students publish and hedge funds lock behind NDAs here's what happened in 14 days: > day 2: bayes picked up OSINT chatter on iran negotiations prior 0.31 → posterior 0.58 in three updates bot bought YES on "ceasefire by Q3" at $0.33 kelly sized it at 6% of bankroll contract moved to $0.61 by day 5 +$2,180 > day 6: KL-divergence flagged a gap "candidate X wins primary" priced at $0.70 "candidate X wins general" priced at $0.48 historical base rate says general should track at ~62% of primary bot bought general, hedged with primary convergence hit by day 9 +$3,740 > day 9: EV scanner found a weather contract market priced hurricane landfall at $0.22 model said 41% based on NOAA data EV = +$0.86 per dollar risked kelly said 11% allocation landfall confirmed day 12 +$4,890 > day 11-14: base rate engine running quiet fed meeting contract at $0.65 for "hold rates" base rate: fed holds when unemployment < 4% → 74% of the time unemployment at 3.8%. market underpriced by 9 points bought at $0.65. settled at $0.98 +$4,663 total: $15,473 in 14 days not from predictions. from formulas 87% of polymarket wallets lose money because they trade what feels right the top 1.2% trade what the math says MiroFish doesn't read twitter threads it reads probability distributions 274 agents don't have opinions they have bayesian priors every 15 seconds the NEXUS core sends a pulse to all agents they recalculate. reposition. repeat i just watch the profit tick copy the bot here: you don't need to be a quant you need a quant's formulas running 24/7
Hanako158,767 次观看 • 3 个月前
Stranger Things S5: Who will die? On Polymarket, the highest odds are for: > Eleven 62% > Jonathan Byers 29% > Steve Harrington 24% > Jim Hopper 14% There were no official announcements or hints. It's just people trying to guess, plus insiders with screenwriters trading here. Market where you can place a prediction: What do you think about this? Share your opinion.
Hanako237,596 次观看 • 5 个月前
my Claude built me a Hydra Swarm terminal with 512 live agents a month ago i didn't know what mesh topology was now i have a swarm living on my screen that trades for me it started when i fed Claude an article about quant formulas he didn't just read it - he asked: "want to see what this looks like from the inside?" an hour later a web was living on my screen 512 agents. each one drifts. each one decides who to connect with 15,000 threads between them break and reform every second first week i just watched packets flying between nodes the web breathing the screen flickering when agents reach consensus then i turned it on with real contracts: > week 1: swarm caught chatter on iran before CNN ran the headline bought YES on ceasefire at $0.30 by friday the contract was at $0.64 +$2,840 > week 2: two polymarket contracts were linked but prices diverged swarm saw the gap. took both sides. waited convergence by wednesday +$3,190 > week 3: weather contract market gave hurricane landfall 19%. model inside the swarm said 38% bought. confirmed thursday +$3,670 > week 4: fed decision market priced "hold" at 62%. base rate at current unemployment - 74% 12 points of difference isn't an opinion. it's math bought. settled at $0.97 +$2,873 total: $12,573 in the first month i never opened polymarket manually 512 agents did it for me 24 hours a day. 7 days a week no opinions. no emotions. no "i feel like YES is underpriced" the weirdest part - i got used to it i open the terminal every morning like email watch the web breathe and the profit tick copy the bot: i didn't need to become a quant i needed a swarm that thinks for me
Hanako126,945 次观看 • 3 个月前
an OpenAI researcher sat next to me at a cafe in brooklyn and saw my screen i was deep in the terminal. trades flowing. didn't notice him sit down. he glanced over. then looked again. "is that prediction markets?" i nodded. "what's running the backend?" "Claude Opus 4.7" he closed his laptop. "show me" i turned the screen. he watched for about two minutes without saying anything. trades executing. markets scanning. wallets being copied. 948 markets per hour. "how many people built this?" just me and Claude. one weekend. one GitHub repo. 610 stars. market making infrastructure. execution engine. order book logic. i gave Opus 4.7 the repo and one prompt: build a grid that runs 8 parallel strategies on prediction markets. scan everything. enter when edge exceeds threshold. exit on volume spike or target hit. first deploy worked. no debugging. no iteration. he shook his head slowly. "we have a team of nine scoping something like this. six month timeline" i showed him the git log. friday 11PM. sunday 2AM. done. copy mirror tracking 4 wallets: > Trump VP pick +$782. bayes signal. > BTC 120K Dec +$681. divergence signal. > SpaceX Starship +$893. oracle lag signal. > Fed rate cut +$537. delta hedge signal. every entry scored by an ensemble before execution. primary model estimates probability. secondary validates against historical resolution. Claude breaks ties using context neither model can read. when all three disagree with the market that's signal. when they agree with each other but not the market that's the fat signal. when everything aligns i skip. 644 trades. 77% win rate. sharpe 3.50. avg hold 4h. +$23,768 from $1,800 in 9 weeks. copytrade here: he stared at the number. "you know we can't ship anything like this right? regulatory. legal. six layers of review" i said Claude doesn't have a legal department. he laughed. then stopped. "i'm serious though. what you built in a weekend would take us two quarters and a compliance audit" i closed my laptop. finished my coffee. he was still sitting there when i left.
Hanako56,762 次观看 • 2 个月前
these 5 GitHub repos replaced my $2,400/month trading setup you're spending thousands on software anyone can fork the repos behind those tools are sitting on GitHub for free here's what i actually run: 1. fredapi (1K ★) Bloomberg charges $2,000/mo for macro data this pulls every Fed dataset into Python with one API key GDP, CPI, rates, employment - pair it with Claude and you're set /// 2. ccxt (42K ★) i was paying $50/mo per exchange just for API access ccxt connects 107 exchanges through one interface JS; Python; PHP; Go; C# the industry standard since day one /// 3. freqtrade (47K ★) killed my $200/mo bot subscription in one afternoon backtesting, hyperopt, FreqAI, live on 20+ exchanges 7 years of weekly commits. Telegram control. your strategies stay yours /// 4. OpenBB (40K ★) equities, options, crypto, fixed income, macro - one terminal plugs into Python, Excel, REST API, MCP for AI agents my $500/mo data feed couldn't do half of this /// 5. goose (40K ★) by Block (Jack Dorsey). Rust. Apache 2.0 full AI coding agent. any LLM. 3,000+ MCP tools. runs locally the $200/mo i was spending on Claude Code now costs me $0 /// bookmark this and thank me later
Hanako54,152 次观看 • 2 个月前
a Chinese quant from Citadel drew 3 formulas on a napkin that replaced my entire salary rooftop dinner in lower manhattan. friend's colleague. four drinks in he started talking about work. "weather is pure physics. no sentiment. no politics. just math against a forecast model" he grabbed a napkin. drew three formulas. > edge = p_model - p_market. > kelly f* = (W/65 - (1-W)/17) = 0.750. > EV = p_model(0.420) - p_market(0.452) = -3.2c. "three formulas. that's the whole weather desk. six analysts. $400K/year in data. doing exactly this" i pocketed the napkin. went home. opened Claude Opus 4.7. "build a weather arbitrage engine using these formulas. pull NOAA, GFS, ECMWF. enter when edge exceeds 2 cents" 2,900 stars. 36GB. every trade on Polymarket and Kalshi. Opus built it overnight. 49 city pairs. 520 markets. 8 data feeds. the edge is real, this account proves it. every trade on-chain. every P&L public. pure weather. consistent returns: current positions all green: Chicago 82-83F. entry $0.184. now $1.59. +$6. Dallas 84-85F. entry $0.200. now $0.74. +$156. Seattle 52-53F. entry $0.312. now $0.59. +$114. London 18C. entry $0.267. now $2.10. +$73. Paris 20C. entry $0.300. now $1.43. +$111. 10 edges found live: > Chicago 82.4F GFS. PM odds 0.80. edge +2.3c. > Dallas 84.8F HRRR. PM odds 0.67. edge +5.3c. > London 17.9C ECMWF. PM odds 0.70. edge +8.2c. > Madrid 22.8C AEMET. PM odds 0.82. edge +6.7c. 817 trades. 84.2% win rate. kelly f+ 0.78. +$4,818 from $600 seed. Claude $20 + VPS $5. i copied his entire setup here: texted him a week later with a screenshot. "you built this from the napkin?" Claude built it. i just typed what you wrote. "that napkin had our entire desk on it" i know. it's in my drawer.
Hanako46,373 次观看 • 2 个月前