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Dan Hillery

@hillery_dan • 23,338 subscribers

VP of Credit @UTXOmgmt || Digital Credit Research || Electrical Engineering @BrownUniversity || Youtube: https://t.co/CpFYh9TBot

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$STRC is back at $100. A higher rate isn't what did it. - Strategy now runs it like the Fed: ATM caps it, buybacks and USD Reserve floor it - At 12%, the ATM soaks up flows that used to lift $STRK and $STRD - Where I was wrong, and the one pref I think can still appreciate

$STRC is back at $100. A higher rate isn't what did it. - Strategy now runs it like the Fed: ATM caps it, buybacks and USD Reserve floor it - At 12%, the ATM soaks up flows that used to lift $STRK and $STRD - Where I was wrong, and the one pref I think can still appreciate

24,149 views • 20 days ago

Winner Take All. Strategy's Preferred Stock (How it acts as a defense mechanism against predatory shorts) Preferred Put ™ $MSTR 5 year price targets ($5000/share) based on $500k Bitcoin Price

Winner Take All. Strategy's Preferred Stock (How it acts as a defense mechanism against predatory shorts) Preferred Put ™ $MSTR 5 year price targets ($5000/share) based on $500k Bitcoin Price

255,320 views • 1 year ago

The Bull Case for MSTR 1) The dust has settled, and MSTR's 10 year returns from here forward will be remarkable - $40k/share in 2045. 2) Returns over 20 years at 36 CAGR vs. 30 CAGR. 3) Macro Economic Ambiguity, sometimes it's best to just hold your breath.

The Bull Case for MSTR 1) The dust has settled, and MSTR's 10 year returns from here forward will be remarkable - $40k/share in 2045. 2) Returns over 20 years at 36 CAGR vs. 30 CAGR. 3) Macro Economic Ambiguity, sometimes it's best to just hold your breath.

151,584 views • 10 months ago

STRC will push Bitcoin into an Exponential - STRC trading volume decouples from MSTR, IBIT, & Bitcoin. - STRC's Shelf Registration and ATM are novel. All other variable rate prefs have been benchmarked to SOFR. Strategy's unlock was letting the market set STRC's interest rate. - SPY Risk > STRC Risk? - Leveraged STRC is the high performance application. - Leveraged STRC will breed the STRC PUT market. - Selling STRC Puts gives anyone access to institutional leverage.

STRC will push Bitcoin into an Exponential - STRC trading volume decouples from MSTR, IBIT, & Bitcoin. - STRC's Shelf Registration and ATM are novel. All other variable rate prefs have been benchmarked to SOFR. Strategy's unlock was letting the market set STRC's interest rate. - SPY Risk > STRC Risk? - Leveraged STRC is the high performance application. - Leveraged STRC will breed the STRC PUT market. - Selling STRC Puts gives anyone access to institutional leverage.

96,257 views • 7 months ago

Buck was shut down, but $STRC is the king of Stable Coins. 0:00-17:45: Skip for Bitcoin only commentary People will lever STRC on-chain 10:1 using Morpho 🦋 & Aave (That's Bitcoin demand). 17:45-32:54: Josh Man and I are selling calls below Bitcoin's power law floor. Sminston With 👁's Power Law cost of production. Bitcoin and MSTR's Implied Volatility Charts. I'm levering spot, not buying long calls.

Buck was shut down, but $STRC is the king of Stable Coins. 0:00-17:45: Skip for Bitcoin only commentary People will lever STRC on-chain 10:1 using Morpho 🦋 & Aave (That's Bitcoin demand). 17:45-32:54: Josh Man and I are selling calls below Bitcoin's power law floor. Sminston With 👁's Power Law cost of production. Bitcoin and MSTR's Implied Volatility Charts. I'm levering spot, not buying long calls.

61,000 views • 6 months ago

$MSTR and $ASST will perform at multiples of Bitcoin over the next 15 years. - The Bitcoin bottom was $60k. - Strategy as The Bank of England. - $ASST 150-200x & 2.6X BTC/Share - current amplification over 15 years. - $MSTR 150x & 2.2X BTC/Share -current amplification over 15 years. - Pre Market Trading on $STRC's ex-dividend date is when all the selling happens. Lot's of SATA pre market trading volume.

$MSTR and $ASST will perform at multiples of Bitcoin over the next 15 years. - The Bitcoin bottom was $60k. - Strategy as The Bank of England. - $ASST 150-200x & 2.6X BTC/Share - current amplification over 15 years. - $MSTR 150x & 2.2X BTC/Share -current amplification over 15 years. - Pre Market Trading on $STRC's ex-dividend date is when all the selling happens. Lot's of SATA pre market trading volume.

48,268 views • 5 months ago

Bitcoin to $250k while Institutions Flip Bullish True North - $MSTR to $1,000/share in 2030. - Power Laws result in Exponential Returns. - Options payout on $ASST relative to holding the equity; allocating risk capital. - 2026 Macro Outlook: All roads lead to financial repression, bonds lose. - Cash Book: Selling insurance on MSTR and ASST is the best way to collect premium along the power law trend, 50% annualized. "The collateral is as valuable as its utility (store of value) + the products built on top of it."

Bitcoin to $250k while Institutions Flip Bullish True North - $MSTR to $1,000/share in 2030. - Power Laws result in Exponential Returns. - Options payout on $ASST relative to holding the equity; allocating risk capital. - 2026 Macro Outlook: All roads lead to financial repression, bonds lose. - Cash Book: Selling insurance on MSTR and ASST is the best way to collect premium along the power law trend, 50% annualized. "The collateral is as valuable as its utility (store of value) + the products built on top of it."

35,149 views • 5 months ago

$STRK to perform on par with $MSTR up to $650/Share? First, a few of the differences between preferred and common equity. Next, I highlight the potential price appreciation of STRK if MSTR appreciates and the credit spread tightens closers to that of the converts. (*Different than the converts, but similar enough for a thought experiment)

$STRK to perform on par with $MSTR up to $650/Share? First, a few of the differences between preferred and common equity. Next, I highlight the potential price appreciation of STRK if MSTR appreciates and the credit spread tightens closers to that of the converts. (*Different than the converts, but similar enough for a thought experiment)

75,579 views • 1 year ago

Bitcoin's Bear Market is Over $STRC - The New Bitcoin Existential Risk Rate STRC/MSTR Volume - STRC's Real Growth Rate $16B-$40B of STRC Capacity with no MSTR Issuance Cost of Production Power Law supports $100B's of STRC issuance - MSTR ATM was FRONT LOADED It's now a waiting game since $STRC is selling itself.

Bitcoin's Bear Market is Over $STRC - The New Bitcoin Existential Risk Rate STRC/MSTR Volume - STRC's Real Growth Rate $16B-$40B of STRC Capacity with no MSTR Issuance Cost of Production Power Law supports $100B's of STRC issuance - MSTR ATM was FRONT LOADED It's now a waiting game since $STRC is selling itself.

36,602 views • 6 months ago

STRC bi-monthly dividend & Institutional Signal - The market wants a high yield money market, something different than any equity or fixed income instrument that exists today. - This only works because Bitcoin is a closed system. - Phong Le: “We think one of the big opportunities of STRC is to borrow against it” - So long as STRC's market cap continues to grow, i.e. more buyers than sellers, there will exist an overnight arbitrage on the ex dividend date greater than the 11.5% annualized return of STRC. - This video scratches the surface of how STRC will price and what the liquidity will look like in a rising Bitcoin and STRC market cap environment.

STRC bi-monthly dividend & Institutional Signal - The market wants a high yield money market, something different than any equity or fixed income instrument that exists today. - This only works because Bitcoin is a closed system. - Phong Le: “We think one of the big opportunities of STRC is to borrow against it” - So long as STRC's market cap continues to grow, i.e. more buyers than sellers, there will exist an overnight arbitrage on the ex dividend date greater than the 11.5% annualized return of STRC. - This video scratches the surface of how STRC will price and what the liquidity will look like in a rising Bitcoin and STRC market cap environment.

35,213 views • 6 months ago

EMERGENCY MARKET UPDATE Boss, I'm tired. $STRC is on Fire, Will it Re-peg to $100?

EMERGENCY MARKET UPDATE Boss, I'm tired. $STRC is on Fire, Will it Re-peg to $100?

21,074 views • 4 months ago

Buck Buck is the world's first Savings Coin. In my presentation at Bitcoin For Corporations at Strategy World 2026... I explain how $STRC is powering Buck to solve the 0% yield problem for the 300B+ Stablecoin market. Yet another use case for Digital Credit Michael Saylor. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 — Intro 0:29 — Bitcoin's 10x Securitization Speed 2:01 — The 4 layers of Bitcoin capital markets 2:52 — STRC, the most important security in Bitcoin 4:08 — Hal Finney & Michael Saylor : the "Digital Money" thesis 4:49 — Buck: A Savings Coin backed by STRC 6:51 — Buck's treasury (STRC + USDC buffer) 7:46 — $1 of Buck = $1 of Bitcoin

Buck Buck is the world's first Savings Coin. In my presentation at Bitcoin For Corporations at Strategy World 2026... I explain how $STRC is powering Buck to solve the 0% yield problem for the 300B+ Stablecoin market. Yet another use case for Digital Credit Michael Saylor. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 — Intro 0:29 — Bitcoin's 10x Securitization Speed 2:01 — The 4 layers of Bitcoin capital markets 2:52 — STRC, the most important security in Bitcoin 4:08 — Hal Finney & Michael Saylor : the "Digital Money" thesis 4:49 — Buck: A Savings Coin backed by STRC 6:51 — Buck's treasury (STRC + USDC buffer) 7:46 — $1 of Buck = $1 of Bitcoin

32,843 views • 8 months ago

Updated 2025 MSTR BTC Acquisition Model. Free Downloadable File attached. (MSTR Damage Control) Updated Price targets. MSTR's BTC acquisition is more aggressive than people realize. "People tend to overestimate what will happen in the short term, and underestimate what will happen over the long term." Compounding BTC/share is the edge that we are trading on, and for that to take effect, it will take time.

Updated 2025 MSTR BTC Acquisition Model. Free Downloadable File attached. (MSTR Damage Control) Updated Price targets. MSTR's BTC acquisition is more aggressive than people realize. "People tend to overestimate what will happen in the short term, and underestimate what will happen over the long term." Compounding BTC/share is the edge that we are trading on, and for that to take effect, it will take time.

63,300 views • 1 year ago

Clawing Back Millions - MSTR Options Portfolio Review. Taking up the mantel for Josh Man (I'm not half the trader he is, but I'll at least keep the flame burning) I have been slightly refining my approach. In this video I review my Options Portfolio (a subset of my overall portfolio), where I trade MSTR Options. Bitcoin Treasury companies are the ICO's of this cycle. Things will only get crazier.

Clawing Back Millions - MSTR Options Portfolio Review. Taking up the mantel for Josh Man (I'm not half the trader he is, but I'll at least keep the flame burning) I have been slightly refining my approach. In this video I review my Options Portfolio (a subset of my overall portfolio), where I trade MSTR Options. Bitcoin Treasury companies are the ICO's of this cycle. Things will only get crazier.

43,583 views • 1 year ago

MSTR is a 10x in 5 years - Long Term Effects of Leverage. How to turn $100,000 into $1,000,000 - 0 DTE IBIT Options & MSTR Volume - Is The Debasement Trade Real? - 2026 Big Ideas - Ark Invest - Black Rock 2026 Fixed Income -Automating Personal AI Workflows

MSTR is a 10x in 5 years - Long Term Effects of Leverage. How to turn $100,000 into $1,000,000 - 0 DTE IBIT Options & MSTR Volume - Is The Debasement Trade Real? - 2026 Big Ideas - Ark Invest - Black Rock 2026 Fixed Income -Automating Personal AI Workflows

24,505 views • 8 months ago

STRC Market Overview. The Most Important Bitcoin Security.... STRC Volume Projection = $500MM/day ATM Selling 1 Part STRC & 2 Parts MSTR 7th Straight Dividend Raise Buck's Total Addressable Market grows every day STRC is issued.

STRC Market Overview. The Most Important Bitcoin Security.... STRC Volume Projection = $500MM/day ATM Selling 1 Part STRC & 2 Parts MSTR 7th Straight Dividend Raise Buck's Total Addressable Market grows every day STRC is issued.

22,694 views • 8 months ago

Does Size Matter? $ASST vs. $MSTR - Who is guaranteed to outperform? Selling perpetual liabilities allows for the ability to manage amplification ratios, but does not provide value in isolation. MSTR has achieved enough scale where they can influence the Bitcoin markets. It could be argued that non accretive equity issuance could be net positive as they increase Bitcoin's terminal price. Over time, cost of capital will matter. For MSTR, higher costs of capital may increase Bitcoin's long term CAGR.

Does Size Matter? $ASST vs. $MSTR - Who is guaranteed to outperform? Selling perpetual liabilities allows for the ability to manage amplification ratios, but does not provide value in isolation. MSTR has achieved enough scale where they can influence the Bitcoin markets. It could be argued that non accretive equity issuance could be net positive as they increase Bitcoin's terminal price. Over time, cost of capital will matter. For MSTR, higher costs of capital may increase Bitcoin's long term CAGR.

14,439 views • 4 months ago

$STRK at $300/share (Pricing a Fully Liquid Convertible Preferred) The way Strategy's Preferred equity is priced means you don't have to express a direct view on interest rates. STRK has room for significant capital appreciation. **A key concern raised by many is as follows: "Won't Strategy use the ATM to keep the price of STRK down?" My answer is two fold: 1) The fixed income market is massive and designed to price yields based on risk. If Bitcoin becomes pristine collateral, the demand will be so massive, that the ATM will be a drop in a bucket (we are not there yet). 2) Strategy must respect their 30% debt to asset ratio for converts, STRF, and STRK (not necessarily STRD). This will put a temporary cap on ATM issuance during periods of high demand for preferred equities.

$STRK at $300/share (Pricing a Fully Liquid Convertible Preferred) The way Strategy's Preferred equity is priced means you don't have to express a direct view on interest rates. STRK has room for significant capital appreciation. **A key concern raised by many is as follows: "Won't Strategy use the ATM to keep the price of STRK down?" My answer is two fold: 1) The fixed income market is massive and designed to price yields based on risk. If Bitcoin becomes pristine collateral, the demand will be so massive, that the ATM will be a drop in a bucket (we are not there yet). 2) Strategy must respect their 30% debt to asset ratio for converts, STRF, and STRK (not necessarily STRD). This will put a temporary cap on ATM issuance during periods of high demand for preferred equities.

31,520 views • 1 year ago