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Lirratø

@itslirrato • 7,140 subscribers

chief prediction markets enjoyer

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Trump is getting away with the tariffs Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett is already signaling that refunding the money is impossible: "It seems to me like it could be a mess" Polymarket is pricing a Trump win at only 30%, but here is why that is wrong: - Striking this down forces the Treasury to refund $140B to importers - Barrett explicitly called this scenario a "complete mess" - She floated a theory that allows the Court to uphold tariffs as a "lesser" power of an embargo - Courts almost never issue rulings that break the administrative state this badly I think the real odds of a Trump win are not 30%, but closer to 50% Buying at 30c and selling at 45c on a re-rate is an easy +50% upside Market:

Trump is getting away with the tariffs Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett is already signaling that refunding the money is impossible: "It seems to me like it could be a mess" Polymarket is pricing a Trump win at only 30%, but here is why that is wrong: - Striking this down forces the Treasury to refund $140B to importers - Barrett explicitly called this scenario a "complete mess" - She floated a theory that allows the Court to uphold tariffs as a "lesser" power of an embargo - Courts almost never issue rulings that break the administrative state this badly I think the real odds of a Trump win are not 30%, but closer to 50% Buying at 30c and selling at 45c on a re-rate is an easy +50% upside Market:

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"Did you anticipate a $9 billion valuation?" "I didn't start this company to not get here." - Polymarket has zero profits - It charges zero fees - It gives away its core product, prediction data, completely for free Yet it’s now valued at $9 billion The market has spoken: Information is the new oil, and they built the new global source of truth

"Did you anticipate a $9 billion valuation?" "I didn't start this company to not get here." - Polymarket has zero profits - It charges zero fees - It gives away its core product, prediction data, completely for free Yet it’s now valued at $9 billion The market has spoken: Information is the new oil, and they built the new global source of truth

2,293,882 views • 7 months ago

Coinbase CEO confirmed: insider trading is 100% necessary for prediction markets Brian Armstrong: "If you want truth about the world, insiders are the only path" Here's the truth we must accept: - Stock markets: insider kills "fair play" - Prediction markets: insider creates "truth signal" - They compete with New York Times, not NASDAQ - Prediction markets are truth serum that cuts through all noise - Bets show real belief unlike experts who can say anything "You want the admiral betting on Suez Canal opening" "Because that's the only way to know the truth" Innovations break stereotypes. Time to embrace the financial truth machine the world needed

Coinbase CEO confirmed: insider trading is 100% necessary for prediction markets Brian Armstrong: "If you want truth about the world, insiders are the only path" Here's the truth we must accept: - Stock markets: insider kills "fair play" - Prediction markets: insider creates "truth signal" - They compete with New York Times, not NASDAQ - Prediction markets are truth serum that cuts through all noise - Bets show real belief unlike experts who can say anything "You want the admiral betting on Suez Canal opening" "Because that's the only way to know the truth" Innovations break stereotypes. Time to embrace the financial truth machine the world needed

881,873 views • 6 months ago

He is about to climb Taipei 101 (508m) without safety gear "I don't have that much experience climbing up buildings, so it's more exciting." Alex Honnold is a rock climber. For him, this is a discipline switch Polymarket has him priced too high. I bet NO and here is why: - There is a significant risk of this event being postponed due to weather conditions - If Alex doesn't complete the climb by Jan 31, the market resolves to NO - The event is controlled by Netflix; per their decision, the climb can be rescheduled I bought NO at 15¢. It's mispriced. Even slight rumors of a delay could push this to 25-30% easily But if he actually starts? It's an easy YES. He sends it

He is about to climb Taipei 101 (508m) without safety gear "I don't have that much experience climbing up buildings, so it's more exciting." Alex Honnold is a rock climber. For him, this is a discipline switch Polymarket has him priced too high. I bet NO and here is why: - There is a significant risk of this event being postponed due to weather conditions - If Alex doesn't complete the climb by Jan 31, the market resolves to NO - The event is controlled by Netflix; per their decision, the climb can be rescheduled I bought NO at 15¢. It's mispriced. Even slight rumors of a delay could push this to 25-30% easily But if he actually starts? It's an easy YES. He sends it

569,698 views • 6 months ago

+$2,454,886 profit on Polymarket So much edge that 60 Minutes had to cover it Ex-poker pro Domer❤️‍🔥 turned trading into an art form, wagering over $400M by treating markets as "information investing" rather than gambling His profile: His profit secret: - Sniped JD Vance at 2% odds because "Trump likes 1-syllable names for bumper stickers." (Pence -> Vance) - Hit a 250:1 outlier on the Pope by scraping Vatican interviews others ignored - He bets months early when "even Trump hasn't decided yet", buying cheap variance before the crowd Honestly, it’s a masterclass. He turned a $4k bet into $250k just by understanding branding better than political pundits

552,672 views • 7 months ago

I found a trader who made nearly $1,000,000 on Polymarket by betting "NO" He calls himself a "geopolitics expert" But I see it differently: he is simply farming retail hopium His profile: Here are the main takeaways: - He fades hype pumps and sells into the euphoria before reality kicks in - Retail loves 100x longshots; he profits by selling them overpriced dreams - The crowd overpays for drama (wars ending, rates cutting). He bets big that absolutely nothing changes Stop betting on what you want to happen and start betting on what is likely to fail I've covered this "bet against the narrative" edge before This trader is living proof it works. I'll keep hunting these setups

348,809 views • 6 months ago

Think I found the SpaceX ticker hiding in plain sight Caught a massive detail in Elon's new interview that the market is ignoring $STAR is trading at 10% and here is why this is a massive undervaluation: - He views the entire ecosystem through the "Star" prefix: Starlink, Starship, Starbase - Musk calls Starship "a revolutionary technology... the first time full reusability is possible" - I think the ticker needs to reflect the flagship product - The crowd is bidding $X (confusing), $SPAX (boring), or $SEX (no comment) I expect a repricing to at least 25-30% where I plan to sell But I believe $STAR has high odds of actually being the ticker Place your bets here:

Think I found the SpaceX ticker hiding in plain sight Caught a massive detail in Elon's new interview that the market is ignoring $STAR is trading at 10% and here is why this is a massive undervaluation: - He views the entire ecosystem through the "Star" prefix: Starlink, Starship, Starbase - Musk calls Starship "a revolutionary technology... the first time full reusability is possible" - I think the ticker needs to reflect the flagship product - The crowd is bidding $X (confusing), $SPAX (boring), or $SEX (no comment) I expect a repricing to at least 25-30% where I plan to sell But I believe $STAR has high odds of actually being the ticker Place your bets here:

199,921 views • 6 months ago

Insider trading is a feature of Polymarket. A Google employee making $1M+ on search trends is simply efficient price discovery. Platform does not ask if your advantage is fair. It only asks if you are right But this logic leads to a dark place: Assassination Markets. If a market allows bets on a death, it creates a direct financial incentive to... resolve the market When millions are on the line, the platform stops being a passive mirror of the future and becomes an engine for shaping it Are Prediction Markets the most honest and cynical technology of our time?

Insider trading is a feature of Polymarket. A Google employee making $1M+ on search trends is simply efficient price discovery. Platform does not ask if your advantage is fair. It only asks if you are right But this logic leads to a dark place: Assassination Markets. If a market allows bets on a death, it creates a direct financial incentive to... resolve the market When millions are on the line, the platform stops being a passive mirror of the future and becomes an engine for shaping it Are Prediction Markets the most honest and cynical technology of our time?

212,694 views • 7 months ago

These 15 minute markets on Polymarket are broken He rigs the outcome by moving the price seconds before the close He made $233,929 risk-free in 24 hours His profile: Here is the exact playbook on video: - Longs XRP 1 min before expiry - Props the price up to ensure the win - Dumps his position immediately after resolution He's pulled this off on at least 20 markets. If this is his only account (which I doubt) Honestly, I was mind-blown watching this live I even saw him use copy traders as exit liquidity when they tried to follow DO NOT copy trade him Maybe next time, he won't just be manipulating the market and will be farming YOU

106,547 views • 5 months ago

Every betting app on your phone is mathematically rigged against you Polymarket CMO calls the entire traditional betting industry "predatory" by nature Prediction markets are the only escape, and here is the difference: - Sportsbooks only offer odds that guarantee their profit - They arbitrage the lines so they mathematically cannot lose - Winning too much? Your cashouts get locked. Limits get slashed - Prediction markets remove the House entirely. No vig. No bans. Peer-to-peer truth DraftKings is already preparing to launch their own prediction market product They know this is the inevitable future and aren't fighting it "Whatever benefits users more - that product wins" Matthew Modabber The "House always wins" era is ending

Every betting app on your phone is mathematically rigged against you Polymarket CMO calls the entire traditional betting industry "predatory" by nature Prediction markets are the only escape, and here is the difference: - Sportsbooks only offer odds that guarantee their profit - They arbitrage the lines so they mathematically cannot lose - Winning too much? Your cashouts get locked. Limits get slashed - Prediction markets remove the House entirely. No vig. No bans. Peer-to-peer truth DraftKings is already preparing to launch their own prediction market product They know this is the inevitable future and aren't fighting it "Whatever benefits users more - that product wins" Matthew Modabber The "House always wins" era is ending

93,129 views • 6 months ago

EVERYONE CRYING ABOUT INSIDER TRADING ON POLYMARKET IS MISSING THE GREATEST ALPHA IN HISTORY 🚨 CEO Shayne Coplan 🦅 calls it the most transparent financial marketplace that has ever existed Every trade is onchain, anyone can see open positions This means you can track unusual buys, spot giant new wallets, and bet right alongside them Nobody is hiding the trade history, it's all in your hands

EVERYONE CRYING ABOUT INSIDER TRADING ON POLYMARKET IS MISSING THE GREATEST ALPHA IN HISTORY 🚨 CEO Shayne Coplan 🦅 calls it the most transparent financial marketplace that has ever existed Every trade is onchain, anyone can see open positions This means you can track unusual buys, spot giant new wallets, and bet right alongside them Nobody is hiding the trade history, it's all in your hands

44,618 views • 4 months ago

"Insider trading is sort of an inevitability... there's a lot of benefits from it. People will adapt." Polymarket's CEO admits this openly To the mainstream, this sounds insane - but here is the undeniable truth: - Real insiders trading = markets get god-tier signals retail can't access anywhere else - "Early news" becomes literal tomorrow's headlines priced in NOW, beating CNBC by days - Sharp money from leaks sharpens odds, turning Polymarket into the ultimate truth machine - CFTC is even debating legalizing it. Trump Jr is advising Prediction markets just obsoleted traditional news Legacy media will soon be forced to integrate probabilities backed by real skin in the game Game over.

"Insider trading is sort of an inevitability... there's a lot of benefits from it. People will adapt." Polymarket's CEO admits this openly To the mainstream, this sounds insane - but here is the undeniable truth: - Real insiders trading = markets get god-tier signals retail can't access anywhere else - "Early news" becomes literal tomorrow's headlines priced in NOW, beating CNBC by days - Sharp money from leaks sharpens odds, turning Polymarket into the ultimate truth machine - CFTC is even debating legalizing it. Trump Jr is advising Prediction markets just obsoleted traditional news Legacy media will soon be forced to integrate probabilities backed by real skin in the game Game over.

52,759 views • 6 months ago

62%. That is the probability of the US Army deploying against its own citizens this year Minneapolis incident just pushed the Insurrection Act market to a new ATH Most don't realize what this means. This Act removes the ban on using combat troops against US citizens If Trump invokes it: - Active-duty military acting as police (yes, tanks, aviation, infantry) - National Guard federalized (Governors stripped of power) - The President needs no approval from Congress or the Courts. This is possibly the most dangerous event that could happen to America, and the probability is now dangerously high

62%. That is the probability of the US Army deploying against its own citizens this year Minneapolis incident just pushed the Insurrection Act market to a new ATH Most don't realize what this means. This Act removes the ban on using combat troops against US citizens If Trump invokes it: - Active-duty military acting as police (yes, tanks, aviation, infantry) - National Guard federalized (Governors stripped of power) - The President needs no approval from Congress or the Courts. This is possibly the most dangerous event that could happen to America, and the probability is now dangerously high

33,443 views • 5 months ago

16/16 wins on Epstein names He missed the release date, but he knew exactly who was in the files I found his deleted video from Jan 15 (attached) that explains the edge He was analyzing DOJ server metadata. In the video, he demonstrates comparing datasets using a diff checker to find hidden file discrepancies that weren't public yet His bets on the names were hard data, while the date bets were just speculation Right now he has a small position ($300) on Trump being named in new files by Feb 28. Given his 100% win rate on names, I'm tailing I'll continue monitoring his account, specifically for "content" bets rather than timelines, and will share any new findings here ASAP

16/16 wins on Epstein names He missed the release date, but he knew exactly who was in the files I found his deleted video from Jan 15 (attached) that explains the edge He was analyzing DOJ server metadata. In the video, he demonstrates comparing datasets using a diff checker to find hidden file discrepancies that weren't public yet His bets on the names were hard data, while the date bets were just speculation Right now he has a small position ($300) on Trump being named in new files by Feb 28. Given his 100% win rate on names, I'm tailing I'll continue monitoring his account, specifically for "content" bets rather than timelines, and will share any new findings here ASAP

25,764 views • 5 months ago

The CEO of a $103 Billion market cap company confirmed it: "We're at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle" "Fastest growing business of all time for Robinhood" Sportsbooks are "scrambling" for a reason: - Prediction markets scaled to a "nine-figure revenue business" instantly - It affects "many more industries than just sports" - They are built as "financial infrastructure" for knowledge - 90% accuracy makes it the "best we've got for forecasting" The forecasting era has begun How long until prediction markets flip sportsbooks?

The CEO of a $103 Billion market cap company confirmed it: "We're at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle" "Fastest growing business of all time for Robinhood" Sportsbooks are "scrambling" for a reason: - Prediction markets scaled to a "nine-figure revenue business" instantly - It affects "many more industries than just sports" - They are built as "financial infrastructure" for knowledge - 90% accuracy makes it the "best we've got for forecasting" The forecasting era has begun How long until prediction markets flip sportsbooks?

25,348 views • 6 months ago

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