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Michael Yuan

@juntao3,373 subscribers

Agentic engineer by day, vibe coder by night. Open-source AI & Rust. Maker of the vibe keyboard: https://t.co/rOtvil8e0k

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Predicting Trump's next tariff move! The Trump 2.0 tariff has caught many by surprise. But, regardless whether we agree with it or not, there is actually a very concrete plan, published months in advance! Trump advisor Stephen Miran laid out the playbook in detail in one of his research papers. Checkout this 🧵for a series of explainer videos created by Gaia 🌱 nodes with an Economics knowledge base! Read on and know what to expect (and how to make $$$) next! TLDR US dollar is chronically overvalued due to artificial demand from its “reserve currency” status. That hurts American manufacturing and is not sustainable. It seemed that the only solution was to massively devalue the USD, which is not acceptable to most people. The authors proposed another solution: Tariff. The goal of tariff is to raise money for the US government to subsidize expensive manufacturing at home. * For unfriendly countries that are hit with the tariff (eg China), experience from Trump 1.0 has shown that tariffs typically do NOT result in inflation. In fact, the exporters devalue their own currency, reducing their own purchasing power and in effect, pay the whole cost of the tariff. * For friendly countries, the US might ask them to share security / defense cost in lieu of high tariff. That is for them to purchase long term US Treasury at very low interest. In both cases, foreign counties subsidize the US to maintain a reserve currency in order to access the US market and security guarantee.

Michael Yuan

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