Lucas Sacerdote🔋
@LucasSacerdote_ • 6,317 subscribers
Investor. Generalist with a preference for energy. $CSIQ $EOSE $AGRO NFA. DYOR.
Videos
![Eos Energy [Full Investment Thesis]: Everything You Need to Know About $EOSE $EOSE 🔋has been my biggest position since 2023 - studying it has been a part/full-time job in itself.🔋 Here’s my 119-page, ~two-hour presentation on Eos Energy. Many have reached out wanting to learn more about the company reshaping America’s grid. I did this video and tried including everything I know in here, hopefully helping speed up the learning curve for anyone interested. This isn’t meant to be flawless; it’s meant to be done. I hope it helps you grasp the company’s story, the team driving it and the potential they have (at least how I see it…). During the video I’ll cover: 00:00 Introduction 3:49 Global Energy Market 8:15 Why Energy Storage is Key 25:21 Choosing the Right Battery Company 27:15 EOS’ Background and Timeline 38:35 The Product 1:01:56 Production at Scale 1:11:56 Unit of Economics and Financials 1:18:26 Team 1:26:59 Risks 1:29:03 What Comes Next - “Best-In-Class” US Battery and It’s Demand 1:45:52 Boots On the Ground $EOSE is executing toward an unprecedented hyperscaler energy demand: U.S.-made, non-lithium storage, ramping for 24/7 data centers, military bases, supply-chain resilient, and addressing key national energy security issues... I believe significant orders should be coming very soon. Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, questions, things I left out, etc. 🔋🔋](https://image.24vids.com/tw-1978939256442872069/amplify_video_thumb/1978937276118843392/img/Unlxc47ad9vrxRP1.jpg)
Eos Energy [Full Investment Thesis]: Everything You Need to Know About $EOSE $EOSE 🔋has been my biggest position since 2023 - studying it has been a part/full-time job in itself.🔋 Here’s my 119-page, ~two-hour presentation on Eos Energy. Many have reached out wanting to learn more about the company reshaping America’s grid. I did this video and tried including everything I know in here, hopefully helping speed up the learning curve for anyone interested. This isn’t meant to be flawless; it’s meant to be done. I hope it helps you grasp the company’s story, the team driving it and the potential they have (at least how I see it…). During the video I’ll cover: 00:00 Introduction 3:49 Global Energy Market 8:15 Why Energy Storage is Key 25:21 Choosing the Right Battery Company 27:15 EOS’ Background and Timeline 38:35 The Product 1:01:56 Production at Scale 1:11:56 Unit of Economics and Financials 1:18:26 Team 1:26:59 Risks 1:29:03 What Comes Next - “Best-In-Class” US Battery and It’s Demand 1:45:52 Boots On the Ground $EOSE is executing toward an unprecedented hyperscaler energy demand: U.S.-made, non-lithium storage, ramping for 24/7 data centers, military bases, supply-chain resilient, and addressing key national energy security issues... I believe significant orders should be coming very soon. Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, questions, things I left out, etc. 🔋🔋
Lucas Sacerdote🔋537,722 views • 9 months ago
![Canadian Solar [Full Investment Thesis]: Everything You Need to Know About $CSIQ “THE GREAT SOLAR RECKONING” ☀️ 🔋$CSIQ became my largest position earlier this year, after I had been studying the company since 2023. Here is my 250-page, ~three-hour presentation on Canadian Solar. I made this video to compress the 1,000+ hours of work already done here, hopefully helping speed up the learning curve for anyone interested.☀️🔋 This is not meant to be flawless. It is meant to be done. I believe $CSIQ is entering one of the most promising periods in its history. With $15B+ in total assets, three multi-billion-dollar businesses spanning solar manufacturing, storage manufacturing, and project development across six continents, and a mere ~$1B market capitalization, Canadian Solar is poised to be one of the top energy performers in 2026. The market has left this company for dead. But underneath the surface, the foundations of the business have been getting stronger: - While the solar industry wrongly spent on building overcapacity, Canadian Solar was one of the few companies slowing down and investing upstream into its project development arm. - While everyone looked to globalize supply chains, Canadian Solar has been building its manufacturing presence in the U.S. since 2023. - While much of the industry was still debating battery storage, Canadian Solar was already building gigawatt-scale projects in 2021. Today, it is reaping the benefits of having been a first mover. This is the story of a company that, despite operating in a ruthless and complicated industry, has consistently been deliberate and rational in its capital allocation decisions. It remains founder-led, with the founder still owning ~20% of the company. Shareholder value creation will always be top of mind, regardless of the market’s current irrationality. The solar industry, like every commodity industry, is deeply cyclical. I am convinced we have already seen the worst of it, and that better profitability is ahead for equipment manufacturers. This is already starting to show in CSI Solar’s Q1 2026 results, with $100M+ in operating profit for the quarter. The supply-demand imbalance for electricity should result in excess profitability. $CSIQ is about to make the undeniable obvious: Canadian Solar is a Western (actually, global) leader in renewable energy. Not middle of the pack. At the very top. They produce ~25 GW of solar modules per year and ~15 GWh of storage per year. For reference, the entire U.S. added roughly 60 GW of total generation capacity in 2025. And they do not only manufacture. They also develop, engineer, construct, and operate billions of dollars of energy assets. That creates a powerful learning and feedback loop between manufacturing and operations, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve. Their BESS experience is the clearest example. At first glance, my estimates and projections may look overly optimistic. But I would ask you to take the time to analyze each one individually. I think you will see that even my bull case uses assumptions that many people already treat as base case assumptions for comparable companies such as $FLNC, $TE, $FSLR, $AMRC, $NXT, and others. My base case assumes roughly half the profitability the industry expects from peers, and still results in an ~10x investment opportunity. Not growing into it. Worth that today. Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, questions, and pushback!! ☀️☀️🔋🔋 Timeline CSIQ: 0:00 Introduction 1:38 Executive Summary 11:35 Macro 18:15 Corporate History 21:00 Management & Team 25:10 Solar Industry & Market 42:47 CSI Solar - the $7B solar behemoth $CSIQ owns 57:00 Project Demand - CSI Solar 1:00:05 BESS Subsidiary with Multi-GWh Firm Orders 1:05:35 Project Demand for e-Storage/BESS 1:11:44 Recurrent Energy - The Multi-Billion Renewable Project Developer 1:34:36 US Manufacturing - 10GWs of Capacity and First Ever to Produce Solar Cells Domestically 1:56:15 Competitors 2:19:29 Litigation 2:28:32 Quality 2:30:52 Valuation & Financial Analysis 2:40:40 Conclusion 2:43:15 Miscellaneous Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell $CSIQ or any other security mentioned here. I am not a registered investment advisor (RIA). Always do your own research (DYOR). I and/or accounts under my management or discretion, may currently hold positions in $CSIQ and may purchase or sell shares at any time without further notice. My opinions, price targets, and allocation suggestions are my personal views and can change without prior notice. Investing in stocks involves a significant risk of loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you found this useful, follow me for more deep dives like this. I spend a ridiculous amount of time studying this whole ecosystem. Please like and share this post if you think more people should be aware of how attractive Canadian Solar could be as an investment opportunity.](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2049526924477677792/amplify_video_thumb/2049510297082470400/img/1lrhPInzrxLt-cj6.jpg)
Canadian Solar [Full Investment Thesis]: Everything You Need to Know About $CSIQ “THE GREAT SOLAR RECKONING” ☀️ 🔋$CSIQ became my largest position earlier this year, after I had been studying the company since 2023. Here is my 250-page, ~three-hour presentation on Canadian Solar. I made this video to compress the 1,000+ hours of work already done here, hopefully helping speed up the learning curve for anyone interested.☀️🔋 This is not meant to be flawless. It is meant to be done. I believe $CSIQ is entering one of the most promising periods in its history. With $15B+ in total assets, three multi-billion-dollar businesses spanning solar manufacturing, storage manufacturing, and project development across six continents, and a mere ~$1B market capitalization, Canadian Solar is poised to be one of the top energy performers in 2026. The market has left this company for dead. But underneath the surface, the foundations of the business have been getting stronger: - While the solar industry wrongly spent on building overcapacity, Canadian Solar was one of the few companies slowing down and investing upstream into its project development arm. - While everyone looked to globalize supply chains, Canadian Solar has been building its manufacturing presence in the U.S. since 2023. - While much of the industry was still debating battery storage, Canadian Solar was already building gigawatt-scale projects in 2021. Today, it is reaping the benefits of having been a first mover. This is the story of a company that, despite operating in a ruthless and complicated industry, has consistently been deliberate and rational in its capital allocation decisions. It remains founder-led, with the founder still owning ~20% of the company. Shareholder value creation will always be top of mind, regardless of the market’s current irrationality. The solar industry, like every commodity industry, is deeply cyclical. I am convinced we have already seen the worst of it, and that better profitability is ahead for equipment manufacturers. This is already starting to show in CSI Solar’s Q1 2026 results, with $100M+ in operating profit for the quarter. The supply-demand imbalance for electricity should result in excess profitability. $CSIQ is about to make the undeniable obvious: Canadian Solar is a Western (actually, global) leader in renewable energy. Not middle of the pack. At the very top. They produce ~25 GW of solar modules per year and ~15 GWh of storage per year. For reference, the entire U.S. added roughly 60 GW of total generation capacity in 2025. And they do not only manufacture. They also develop, engineer, construct, and operate billions of dollars of energy assets. That creates a powerful learning and feedback loop between manufacturing and operations, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve. Their BESS experience is the clearest example. At first glance, my estimates and projections may look overly optimistic. But I would ask you to take the time to analyze each one individually. I think you will see that even my bull case uses assumptions that many people already treat as base case assumptions for comparable companies such as $FLNC, $TE, $FSLR, $AMRC, $NXT, and others. My base case assumes roughly half the profitability the industry expects from peers, and still results in an ~10x investment opportunity. Not growing into it. Worth that today. Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, questions, and pushback!! ☀️☀️🔋🔋 Timeline CSIQ: 0:00 Introduction 1:38 Executive Summary 11:35 Macro 18:15 Corporate History 21:00 Management & Team 25:10 Solar Industry & Market 42:47 CSI Solar - the $7B solar behemoth $CSIQ owns 57:00 Project Demand - CSI Solar 1:00:05 BESS Subsidiary with Multi-GWh Firm Orders 1:05:35 Project Demand for e-Storage/BESS 1:11:44 Recurrent Energy - The Multi-Billion Renewable Project Developer 1:34:36 US Manufacturing - 10GWs of Capacity and First Ever to Produce Solar Cells Domestically 1:56:15 Competitors 2:19:29 Litigation 2:28:32 Quality 2:30:52 Valuation & Financial Analysis 2:40:40 Conclusion 2:43:15 Miscellaneous Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell $CSIQ or any other security mentioned here. I am not a registered investment advisor (RIA). Always do your own research (DYOR). I and/or accounts under my management or discretion, may currently hold positions in $CSIQ and may purchase or sell shares at any time without further notice. My opinions, price targets, and allocation suggestions are my personal views and can change without prior notice. Investing in stocks involves a significant risk of loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you found this useful, follow me for more deep dives like this. I spend a ridiculous amount of time studying this whole ecosystem. Please like and share this post if you think more people should be aware of how attractive Canadian Solar could be as an investment opportunity.
Lucas Sacerdote🔋89,285 views • 2 months ago
$AGRO Everyone interested in the fertilizer and agriculture industry, should take a few minutes to hear what a great position Adecoagro is in. $MOS $CF $NTR - Fixed gas prices till end of 2027. Vaca Muerta (Argentina) is one of the largest gas reserves in the world, and is totally unaffected by Middle East conflicts. - Cash cost of $180-190 per tonne of Urea. Selling for +$600/tonne. Reached +$900 with a significantly smaller supply chain disruption in 2022 (10% in 2022 from Russia vs +40% today from Middle East) - Agriculture business (250,000 owned acres + ~200,000 leased) is looking great for 2026, with a record year expected by the industry.
Lucas Sacerdote🔋114,291 views • 3 months ago
$EOSE This is HUGE! Over $4.5 billion in potential orders just from ONE customer. And I dont even think this is their biggest strategic customer. IEP — an energy developer that has grown alongside $EOSE — is stating over 15GWh+ of planned BESS. We know they work with Eos' technology. This is missing 2GWh of Data Center Robena and the Hummingbird BESS... Exiting times for IEP and Eos ahead. This demand tsunami needs to be met by someone, now. Here are my comments on how $EOSE has been growing their relationship with IEP since the very early days. They even provided upfront funding, that was later repaid when the project secured financing: For the full video, linked below 👇👇
Lucas Sacerdote🔋115,645 views • 8 months ago
$EOSE This is my update video on Eos after their Q4 and preliminary Q1 results. We finally had enough new material info to warrant a new video. Since their Q4 results and the brutal drop in their share price, the company has: - Met Q1 guidance. - Largely resolved operational and manufacturing issues (probably). - Management owned the miss, took responsibility, and is rebuilding trust brick by brick. - The CEO bought $500K worth of stock, and two directors an additional $200K. - Cerberus is doubling down, seen in the appointment of a new Board of Directors seat. This came after appointing a new Chairman and directly investing in $EOSE's supply chain, as well as one of their customers. - Much better visibility into their software issues and fixes, hopefully leading to favorable field data. - Macro: Energy sovereignty tailwinds only getting stronger. - AI energy demand is strongly aligning with zinc’s advantages. I continue to be optimistic about $EOSE ’s potential, and remain a long-term investor. I’m also looking forward to sharing my largest position next week, which has now surpassed Eos. It will be presented in both article and video format. It is also in the renewables space. I believe the thesis will be easy to understand for anyone following Eos. More to come soon. 00:00 Introduction 01:18 Insider Buying + Cerberus Commitment Signals 03:50 Everzinc: Battery Tech & Supply Chain 12:04 Q4 Operational Results 13:59 Software Bottleneck 16:19 Indensity 17:22 Production Progress & Guidance Expectations 22:25 Q1 Results & Analysis 23:01 Customers Pipeline and Additional Orders 29:34 10K Insights + Financials Breakdown 33:54 Catalysts going forward 39:18 Macro Perspective 43:31 $10B+ Company in the Making 46:43 Conclusion Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell $EOSE or any other security. I am not a registered investment advisor (RIA). Always do your own research (DYOR). I and/or accounts under my management or discretion, including family accounts for which I have power of attorney, may currently hold positions in $EOSE and may purchase or sell shares at any time without further notice. My opinions, price targets, and allocation suggestions are my personal views and can change without prior notice. Investing in stocks involves a significant risk of loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Lucas Sacerdote🔋32,003 views • 2 months ago
Great primer on Fertilizers by Koh(・ur)aYama in The All-In Podcast (and the war’s implications for $AGRO): - 35% of the world’s fertilizers goes through the Straight of Hormuz. - China is the swing producer, with 15% of the worlds production. They just shut down exports. - At current Urea prices, planting $CORN in the US is unprofitable. AND China stopped importing corn from the US, keeping its price artificially low. US farmers in a lot of pain. - KEY: Fixing a fertilizer facility that has broken takes 3-5 years! (What happened in the middle east). Basically, the largest facility of Urea in the world will be out for multiple years. And constructing one from scratch takes about 7 years! - There is no possible excess production, every facility runs 24/7/365. With a supply shock, the only way to balance the market is to destroy demand through price spikes. Not covered on the video but worth mentioning: - Russia stopped its Ammonia exports (previous step to turn it into Urea) - Australia’s largest Urea facility is down till ~June bc of repairs. - All of Bangladesh’s fertilizer plants are fully shut Bc of supply shock and deficit in natural gas. - Financial Times reporting Urea prices up to $800/ton. Not sure where fertilizer prices normalize, but seems likely that: - They can stay higher for longer due to long lead times of bringing capacity online. - No clear top in the short term due to incredible supply/demand imbalance. - Second derivative effects will lead to higher agricultural commodity prices. $AGRO will be a beneficiary of all this. With their 1.3M metric tonnes of Urea production facility, and >250,000 acres of farmland, they will benefit from both: fertilizer price increases, and commodities prices increases. (Im always asked the same question, so clarifying it again: $AGRO has fixed production costs till end of 2027 for fertilizer. ~$200/ton. Long term contracted gas supply agreements from Argentina’s Vaca Muerta gas reservoir. Not affected by price increases in oil/gas. It all flows down directly to their margin). If interested in $AGRO, please join the X community!
Lucas Sacerdote🔋21,702 views • 3 months ago
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