Marik
@MarikWeb3 • 2,704 subscribers
a lot of misstakes were made time to rebuild everything
Videos
I’ve made more money on Polymarket from understanding one equation than from trying to predict the actual events Long-term winrate: ~74% Net profit so far: $10k+ The reason is simple, every price on Polymarket comes from this function: pₖ(q) = e^(qₖ / b) / Σ e^(qᵢ / b) It’s the same softmax function used in neural networks Every buy pushes the exponent, every sell pulls it back So the price you see it’s just order flow passed through math Once you understand that, the game changes You stop asking who will win and start asking who pushed the probability curve too far
Marik106,062 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
I was losing on Polymarket for 3 months straight Then I found his formula $340 → $4,871 in 2 hours I still don't fully understand why it works Markets misprice events with public data behind them every single day Everyone reads the same headline. nobody checks the actual numbers That gap is still open and 99% of traders don't even know it exists
Marik15,033 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
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