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I’ve made more money on Polymarket from understanding one equation than from trying to predict the actual events Long-term winrate: ~74% Net profit so far: $10k+ The reason is simple, every price on Polymarket comes from this function: pₖ(q) = e^(qₖ / b) / Σ e^(qᵢ / b) It’s...

106,062 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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So a core issues I see with a lot of crypto games is: No in game peer to peer economy. (ie. The game Devs make all the $$ off the items and you buy from them not other players) Couple of things I wanted to experiment with, in regards to on chain gaming is the peer to peer economy. So the way my team set it up, is you mine the token in game, but you sell the items peer to peer in SOL. (see video for a demo) This gives you two different ways to play to earn, you can farm items, from bosses and loot boxes, and sell them to players for solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 , then other players can buy them and use them to mine the token, and sell the token to traders who will speculate on the price. Or you can just buy the loot boxes, and use the items to farm the token. This should help with the sell pressure, because before the game flow was: Buy item (in token, From devs) --->farm a ton of token---> Sell token to recoup cost of item. New flow is : Player opens loot boxes (paid in token)/ Player Plays game (in game token sinks) ---> gets item ---Lists item--> other player buy Item (From players, In SOL) ----Farms token---> sells token. Now the equation is if the loot box-player spent more game tokens to get the item compared to what he gets for in sol, and it keeps more money in the in game economy, and the market will fluctuate more based on the price of the in game token. So players who play and are "locked in" can make money off arbing and this services the "trader" archetype of player, which I feel is the major player type in web3-games. (also the token name is just a test token so dont buy random shit on pump fun, thats just using the name)

Skely

15,036 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

My dad looked at my screen and said what is this, a hacker game? It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me. He sat down. I explained. Polymarket runs on one equation. Softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word. C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders do not know this formula exists. They look at 40 cents and think cheap. My bot looks at 40 cents and calculates the theoretical price is 58 cents. That is an 18-cent edge per share. Two more formulas do the rest: f = (p·b − q) / b. Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said find every contract the market has wrong. $600 to $10,190. 425 trades. Still running. 61.2% win rate. Wrong 39% of the time. Does not matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost. 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math. The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file. The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody is looking. My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I am getting a real job. I built the entire framework: Softmax arbitrage detection layer Kelly Criterion position sizing Bayesian probability recalibration Claude integration for autonomous execution 3 AM mispricing scanner The system runs 24/7. Finds where the math disagrees with the crowd. Executes before the edge compresses. No prediction. No gut feel. Just formulas. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word money 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Deploy the formula system this week. Start with $600. Scale on evidence.

Himanshu Kumar

13,222 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Dejan Kulusevski on returning to full Tottenham training after a long-term injury. 🗣️“This is one of the happiest days of my career. People see football for ninety minutes every weekend, but they don’t see the months of pain, the lonely mornings in the gym, the frustration of watching your teammates fight while you’re stuck on the sidelines wondering when you’ll feel like yourself again.” “There were days I questioned everything. You wake up every morning hoping your body will respond, hoping you’ll take one step closer to the pitch, and sometimes it doesn’t. Those moments test you as a person far more than any football match ever could.” “I’ve missed this feeling more than words can describe. The dressing room, the laughter, the intensity of training, competing with my teammates again… it’s what I’ve dreamed about every single day since the injury happened. You never truly appreciate football until it’s taken away from you.” “I want to thank everyone who stood by me my family, my teammates, the medical staff and especially the Tottenham supporters. They never stopped believing in me, even when I couldn’t help the team on the pitch. Every message, every chant and every bit of support gave me strength when I needed it most.” “Now the hard work begins. I’m not back just to make up the numbers I want to fight, compete and prove that I’m still the player everyone remembers. I know there will be doubts, but I’ve always answered doubts with football.” “This injury didn’t break me it built me. It made me mentally stronger, hungrier and more grateful for every second I get to wear this badge. I promise the fans one thing: when I step back onto that pitch, I’ll leave absolutely everything out there. I’ve waited far too long for this moment to waste a single second.”

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129,112 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen