Brandon Beylo
@marketplunger1 • 110,847 subscribers
Writer | Investor | Listener || ~ There are no great businesses, only great bets. Nothing you read here is investment advice. Read 👉 https://t.co/rVOdJUnxQI
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Bruce Greenwald invited Li Lu to speak to his class on value investing. The result is a 90 minute masterclass on how to be a value investor. If you haven't watched the video, do it now. If you have, it's worth re-watching. Here is a list of my favorite quotes from Li Lu 👇 PERSONALITY OF A VALUE INVESTOR • "Understand who you are as an investor, because you will be tested. You will have to ask yourself if you truly are a value investor." • "Value investing goes against our evolution of following the crowds to survive." • "You will spend most of your time as an investigative journalist. To have insatiable curiosity." • "You almost have to be curious about everything. Because you never know where you'll get that one major insight." INVESTOR CRITERIA • Is it cheap? • Is it a good business? • Why is this opportunity available to me? "Once you answer those questions, you really have to go for it." INVESTMENT CASE STUDY 1: TIMBERLAND • "The first thing I check in a company is it's valuation." • "If you're an investor you don't care where it traded before." • "What matters isn't the price-to-book ratio itself, but what's in the book value." • "You want to compare the capital invested in the business to how much pre-tax cash flow the business generates using that capital." • "So Timberland generated $100M on $200M in capital invested. So why does the opportunity exist?" - Nike, Reebok, all the shoe brands fell off a cliff during the Asian Financial Crisis. - Founder owns 40% of the stock - Company was profitable and didn't need financial markets (no sell-side) - Tons of shareholder lawsuits • "What would be your conclusion if you were a normal mutual fund hearing this information? That management is milking the company for their own gain." What does Li Lu do next? • "I download every file of the shareholder court cases. That's the investigative journalist part." • "The result was that the founder withdrew guidance and shareholders didn't like it. That was it." How do you determine if management are decent people? • "You've got to be an investigative journalist and find the trail of evidence. Go to their community. Introduce yourself to their friends/family/neighbors." Total Time Commitment: "A couple of weeks of diligent/obsessive work" • "Investing is intensive work for short bursts of time." HOW MUCH TO BUY? • "If you go join a fund, they'll tell you not to risk anything more than 25-50bps." • "Think about how much effort you put in to this work. You have no downside and its trading at 5x profits." • "So, I put a shitload of money into Timberland. Over the next 10 years it went up 7x. It was never more than 15x earnings." • "If you're not a good analyst, you'll NEVER be a good investor." • "When it goes up, you don't have to do a damn thing. You just sit on it and ride with it." INVESTMENT CASE STUDY 2: KOREAN COMPANY • "Don't think about per-share numbers. Think of yourself as an owner." • "$236M in book value, $60M market cap, $25M net earnings." How do you know it's cheap? • "You must confirm that the earnings are there, and that the book value is real, liquid, and tangible." • "They're trading at the cash value in the bank with no debt. They have hotels and department stores that they own outright. They're making $30M+ in pre-tax earnings. And insiders own 50%." The result: Went up 5-6x VALUE INVESTING IS NOT NATURAL • "There's a lot of money in value investing. But it's still unnatural to most people." • "One thing you have to do, is you have to do the work. You have to do the reps. You can make a ton of money if you really do this stuff." • "I benefited by listening AND THEN DOING my own work. Making my own investments and mistakes." WHAT MAKES A GREAT ANALYST • "You must provide accurate and complete information. If you can't succeed on that, you can't succeed in this business." • "If you're not confident about your prediction and what you know, you can't put any money when the stock's in free fall." WHAT PROVIDES THE BIGGEST RETURNS • "Your biggest returns will come from no more than ten tremendous insights. That's it." • "The only way to build those insights is intense curiosity, intense study." INVESTING MISTAKES • "The biggest mistakes come when you buy before you've done all the work." • "My biggest mistakes aren't buying and losing money. It's not buying and missing out on 50-60x returns." HOW MANY COMPANIES SHOULD YOU BUY • "I don't have any set rules on how many stocks or companies I buy. Opportunities are sporadic and it depends on the environment." • "I usually have 3-4 big ideas. If the market is exciting, I have more opportunities. Or if the market is boring, I have fewer." HOW LI LU ALLOCATES TIME • "Most of the time I spend reading and studying about everything. Learning new companies and industries." • "If I find an idea that captivates me. I stop everything and obsess over that idea." • "Besides that, I spend a lot of time with my kid and my wife." TL;DR: • Be an investigative journalist. • Work obsessively in short bursts and spend the rest. of your time learning. • When you've done the work and have conviction, buy a shitload to make it worth it. • Before you invest $1, make sure you can answer the three big questions: Is it cheap, is the management team good, and why does the opportunity exist. • Never stop learning. • Become a curiosity machine.
Brandon Beylo2,749,782 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren
Wall Street lost a legend today. Rest in peace, Jim Simons. He was a true one-of-one character who built one of the most successful investment firms ever. Here's my favorite Jim Simons lecture. I still learn so much each time I listen. Source: Free Engineering Course on YT
Brandon Beylo457,402 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren
Wanted to post this here in case there was any misunderstanding about Marc Cohodes bet between Cliff Sosin (Clifford Sosin) and myself. Here it is directly from Marc's mouth: 1) Serves breakfast, lunch, and dinner in a dress. 2) Buys me a Cobra. <$40 away now.
Brandon Beylo116,184 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
Robert Friedland (Robert Friedland) is one of the most important voices in Metals & Mining. When he speaks, we should listen. He recently gave a 40-minute speech on Green Energy, Electrification, Metal Scarcity, and more. Here are my notes from the talk 👇 WHAT DOES "ENERGY TRANSITION" MEAN? "You have a billion people that burn firewood to live. They have no access to electrical energy." "We're burning more coal and more oil today than in the history of the world." "We spent $4T putting up solar panels for hydrocarbons to still capture 83% of energy source." "You're not going to stop global warming by buying an electric car." ON ELECTRIC CARS & EV BATTERIES "With current lithium ion technology, the destruction we cause, the global warming gas we cause, we might as well sit on our chairs and do nothing." "You just bought your wife a coal-burning car by buying an EV." "The current generation of EV batteries will be toast in 2-3 years." "I would short every lithium company in the world." "We're going to kill the lithium hydroxide business over time." COMMON METALS VITAL FOR TRANSITION "If we're going to have a transition, we need common and abundant materials. We can't rely on things like nickel." "The batteries they're making now are low-grade lithium metal. You don't need nickel, cobalt, graphite, They're out the window." "You want batteries made out of common materials so billions of people can use it." WOMB TO TOMB EXAMINATION OF NET ZERO "Look at the whole system if you're trying to eliminate global warming." "The Chinese are saying 2060 and India is now saying 2070. What does that tell you?" "There's zero chance that the twelve major automakers will find enough nickel to make their batteries." "The amount of metal we need doesn't exist currently in a way that's green or sustainable. It's apparent to any readily intelligible person." "How can we stop burning coal and oil and not have an energy transition?" TWO COMPETING PARADIGMS "We have two competing tribes. One tribe says 'I want to save the world, I'm green, I need cobalt, nickel, platinum, or palladium'. The other tribe says 'Holy shit, the Army/Navy wants these metals for national defense.'" "The intensity of metal demand in conflict is beyond your wildest imagination. In WWI you needed a telescope to see the price of copper." "So we're heading to a world where both tribes have a strong demand for more metals. We're balkenizing the world into two camps and its tearing the global supply chains apart." A VERY DIFFICULT TIME "It does appear that the world is warming, and there's zero chance we'll reduce that. The question is how bad will it get?" "I was in CA recently, it was $6.20 per gallon. The average citizen is pissed off." "I agree with Jamie Dimon that this is the most dangerous time since I've been alive." "The Fed are idiots. They told us that inflation was over. And it's not even close." WE NEED TO REINVENT THE MINING INDUSTRY "First of all, we have to try to mine in the United States. No intelligent person has tried to do that in the last few generations." "Everything is blown out of proportion because mining is viewed as a bad thing." "We also have to determine what metals we actually need for the future. Which is copper." "Imagine you're plugging an EV w/ 1MW charger. Our grid is literally a 110 year old lady waiting to die. The Chinese tell me it will take $21T to rebuild the electrical grid." "Our grid is like balancing a pencil vertically on your palm. There's no storage there." "The symbol of the US, the bald eagle, is flying into offshore windmills. They're just chewing them up. Who wants to live near them? They're very low density." "At least real miners know how hard it is to actually find metals and mine it." ENERGY CONSUMPTION "A Google search requires 1,000 joules of electrical energy. You think its free, but its paid for by advertising." "You think the internet is green? You know how much energy it requires to use AI/ChatGPT? You think Bitcoin/crypto is green?" IMPORTANCE OF COPPER "I don't know if we need gold. But I do know we need copper. And we need it really badly." "Having said that, I'd rather there be gold in my copper. Because people will always want gold." "People are getting rid of their excess copper because they're de-stocking to reduce their interest cost. But we're nearing the end of de-stocking and paper selling." "This huge clash is coming between Army, Navy, Air Force and the Greening of the world economy. And the miners have an unbelievable burden to make that happen." "At the same time we need these metals, its harder to get the equipment needed to mine the metal!" "The miners have a very important role to play to supply the world with the metals it desperately needs." IMPORTANCE OF SAUDI ARABIA "If Saudi Arabia can't maintain basic energy security, we'll have $200-$300 oil. We need stability in that pricing. At $100-$300 oil, people in Egypt don't eat." "Saudi is playing a beneficial role by keeping oil between $70-90 per barrel." AUDIENCE Q&A "The valuation of the mining industry relative to the S&P 500 is the lowest in living memory. The general person thinks that mining is evil and must be eliminated." "50% of what goes into an EV is hydrocarbon. If we stopped producing oil, half of humanity would die from starvation." "I don't think we understand how formidable the Chinese are." "In a Balkenized economy, we went from a Just-in-Time supply chain to a Just-in-Case supply chain." "How much metal do we need to build nuclear reactors? How much steel, concrete, rebar, nuclear engineers do you need to build these things?" "The problem is that the world economy is Balkenized. Where is the steel coming from? Where are the pumps coming from? The French want nuclear power, and the Germans are burning coal. Even within Europe, its Balkenized. That's all I see." "I think the mining industry needs to defend itself more. Where do you think stuff comes from? There's the hardware of the mine (tons, grade, engineering). Then there's all the people around the mine (locals). There's invariably a clash with the locals around the mine. Unless they're buying into it, its not going to happen. That's the software around mining." ON KNOWING WHERE THINGS COME FROM "People don't realize where things come from. As people live in urban environments, they forget where things come from." "We need to communicate the importance of mining and humanize it as an activity. We need to mine in the United States. We need to figure out what should be mined, where we're allowed to mine, and how."
Brandon Beylo439,950 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren
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