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Matthew Knauer

@matthewk36711 • 5,550 subscribers

Pitching enthusiast || UCLA '29 || @WCCrawdads Lead Data Analyst Formerly: @theredwoodbark @dailybruin

Shorts

It's been just 11 games in affiliated ball, but Josuar Gonzalez has all the makings of a future #1 overall prospect. 30 batted ball events: 109.1 mph EV90 50% hard-hit rate 93 mph avg. EV 111.3 mph max EV Those raw EVs out of an 18-year-old, 5'10", 180 lb frame are otherworldly. Combined with elite SS defense, 60-grade speed, and what has been above-average contact and plate discipline, it's hard to see a world where Gonzalez doesn't turn into a superstar. He'll need to more consistently elevate the baseball (22/30 GBs, 0.5° LA), turning the elite EVs into home run power or at least gap-to-gap, but that comes with time. Gonzalez won't turn 19 until October.

It's been just 11 games in affiliated ball, but Josuar Gonzalez has all the makings of a future #1 overall prospect. 30 batted ball events: 109.1 mph EV90 50% hard-hit rate 93 mph avg. EV 111.3 mph max EV Those raw EVs out of an 18-year-old, 5'10", 180 lb frame are otherworldly. Combined with elite SS defense, 60-grade speed, and what has been above-average contact and plate discipline, it's hard to see a world where Gonzalez doesn't turn into a superstar. He'll need to more consistently elevate the baseball (22/30 GBs, 0.5° LA), turning the elite EVs into home run power or at least gap-to-gap, but that comes with time. Gonzalez won't turn 19 until October.

75,000 görüntüleme

Cal Randall was the most fun pitcher I watched all year, consistently attacking lineups with nothing but a 96-99 mph heater from about the most optimal mechanics, and thus release characteristics, as anyone on the planet. A great pick by the Cardinals (round 5, pick 146). Despite struggling with command (14.7% BB), particularly with his infrequently used slider and changeup, Randall's worst-case outcome is a mid-leverage reliever. The fastball would immediately become top-10 in MLB (96.7 mph, 18/10, 5.2 ft release, 7+ ft extension), and any semblance of a slider above ~25% usage should keep hitters guessing enough to get Major League outs. A damn high floor for a fifth-round pick. The relief risk is as high as it gets, but with the improvements in pitching development in St. Louis, I wouldn't count anything out. Without much history at all in pitch design or biomechanical work, Randall may be able to unlock a more consistent feel for strikes or a better breaking ball. From his profile, I'd start by trying to find a true gyro. Current slider is 87 mph (7/-2). Changeup exactly mirrors fastball at 89 mph. Why not shoot for such upside in the fifth round?

32,334 görüntüleme

While Luis Arraez boasts a generational contact tool, I find the minuscule strikeout and whiff rates to be indicative of his incredibly stubborn approach. A really talented hitter, but he has over-optimized for contact, well past the point of diminishing returns. A thread 🧵

While Luis Arraez boasts a generational contact tool, I find the minuscule strikeout and whiff rates to be indicative of his incredibly stubborn approach. A really talented hitter, but he has over-optimized for contact, well past the point of diminishing returns. A thread 🧵

80,847 görüntüleme

The A's continue to stack up on young left-handed pitching, selecting Mason Edwards (2nd round, pick 47). Edwards wields a 91-94 mph four-seam averaging ~21 iVB, although the pitch plays below its raw carry from a very high 6.6 ft. release height. Likely needs to be 93-95 for big league success, swing-and-miss somewhat lacked. The secondaries and their potential make Edwards the prospect he is. From the over-the-top release, his 80 mph curveball generates strong two-plane movement (-10/11) at a very steep approach. Strong command of the offering, ability to use at high frequency. While he didn't use it too often, Edwards' changeup has massive promise, also on a very steep plane from his heavily vertical release. Showed velocity and movement separation from his four-seam, projects as a great weapon vs. RHH. Boasted an elite whiff rate >50%. Needs more consistent feel and usage. The southpaw's slider is also a work in progress and was non-existent in many outings this year, but it will be a critical bridge pitch in his arsenal. 80-82 mph with inconsistent shape. With such a large vertical distinction between his four-seam and curveball, Edwards needs a hard, tight slider to sit between the pair and make swing decisions tougher. Hopefully, the A's can find a mid-80s pitch in gyro territory. The largest area for growth with Edwards is his command, as he posted a walk rate >10% in each of his three collegiate seasons (11.9% junior year). In my opinion, it seemed like he was always pitching for punchouts and around the edges of the plate. I think more strikes should come with more in-zone emphasis in early counts, and he has the stuff to never worry about being over the plate. With some velocity progression and refinement of his changeup and slider, I find it very likely Mason Edwards becomes at least of middle of the rotation starting pitcher. A's have a stellar crop of young southpaws.

The A's continue to stack up on young left-handed pitching, selecting Mason Edwards (2nd round, pick 47). Edwards wields a 91-94 mph four-seam averaging ~21 iVB, although the pitch plays below its raw carry from a very high 6.6 ft. release height. Likely needs to be 93-95 for big league success, swing-and-miss somewhat lacked. The secondaries and their potential make Edwards the prospect he is. From the over-the-top release, his 80 mph curveball generates strong two-plane movement (-10/11) at a very steep approach. Strong command of the offering, ability to use at high frequency. While he didn't use it too often, Edwards' changeup has massive promise, also on a very steep plane from his heavily vertical release. Showed velocity and movement separation from his four-seam, projects as a great weapon vs. RHH. Boasted an elite whiff rate >50%. Needs more consistent feel and usage. The southpaw's slider is also a work in progress and was non-existent in many outings this year, but it will be a critical bridge pitch in his arsenal. 80-82 mph with inconsistent shape. With such a large vertical distinction between his four-seam and curveball, Edwards needs a hard, tight slider to sit between the pair and make swing decisions tougher. Hopefully, the A's can find a mid-80s pitch in gyro territory. The largest area for growth with Edwards is his command, as he posted a walk rate >10% in each of his three collegiate seasons (11.9% junior year). In my opinion, it seemed like he was always pitching for punchouts and around the edges of the plate. I think more strikes should come with more in-zone emphasis in early counts, and he has the stuff to never worry about being over the plate. With some velocity progression and refinement of his changeup and slider, I find it very likely Mason Edwards becomes at least of middle of the rotation starting pitcher. A's have a stellar crop of young southpaws.

14,992 görüntüleme

In his debut series, Bryce Eldridge launched two towering fly balls (both 105 mph) that couldn't escape Chase Field's cavernous grasps; both would have been home runs at Oracle Park. #SFGiants

In his debut series, Bryce Eldridge launched two towering fly balls (both 105 mph) that couldn't escape Chase Field's cavernous grasps; both would have been home runs at Oracle Park. #SFGiants

30,904 görüntüleme

Roch Cholowsky did it again, this time the other way with a 108 mph line drive.

Roch Cholowsky did it again, this time the other way with a 108 mph line drive.

14,850 görüntüleme

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With the struggles going on at the big league level, let’s instead take a look at my top 15 #SFGiants prospects. The system has taken a big leap in 2025, and San Francisco's top three are as good as any other organization’s best. A (mega) thread 🧵

With the struggles going on at the big league level, let’s instead take a look at my top 15 #SFGiants prospects. The system has taken a big leap in 2025, and San Francisco's top three are as good as any other organization’s best. A (mega) thread 🧵

255,720 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Wilmer Flores has had an illustrious career with the #SFGiants, and fans adore him. But he's showing some immense signs of regression, and once Jerar Encarnación finishes his rehab assignment, he should take the DH role. Let's take a look into Flores' decline: A thread 🧵

Wilmer Flores has had an illustrious career with the #SFGiants, and fans adore him. But he's showing some immense signs of regression, and once Jerar Encarnación finishes his rehab assignment, he should take the DH role. Let's take a look into Flores' decline: A thread 🧵

191,785 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

People took offense to it, but I’m firm in my belief that Bailey is the most talented defensive catcher of all time. The position has evolved at an incredibly rapid pace over the past half decade, listen to Mitch Garver talk about it ⬇️. In an era of uber-advanced defensive catchers, Bailey stands out by a country mile. He’s tallied 85 fielding runs since 2023, 2nd place has 52!! He brutally outpaces Molina, Posey, Rodriguez, etc. in DRS and defensive WAR. Watch a game even from the 2010s, and you’ll be appalled by how poorly catchers received the baseball in the past. One knee down has changed the position for the better.

People took offense to it, but I’m firm in my belief that Bailey is the most talented defensive catcher of all time. The position has evolved at an incredibly rapid pace over the past half decade, listen to Mitch Garver talk about it ⬇️. In an era of uber-advanced defensive catchers, Bailey stands out by a country mile. He’s tallied 85 fielding runs since 2023, 2nd place has 52!! He brutally outpaces Molina, Posey, Rodriguez, etc. in DRS and defensive WAR. Watch a game even from the 2010s, and you’ll be appalled by how poorly catchers received the baseball in the past. One knee down has changed the position for the better.

57,201 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

A lot has been said about a Tyler Rogers reunion, but Mike Yastrzemski has hardly been mentioned, despite coming off the best half-season at the plate in his career. San Francisco needs a left-handed bat, particularly in right field. The reunion is meant to be. A thread 🧵

A lot has been said about a Tyler Rogers reunion, but Mike Yastrzemski has hardly been mentioned, despite coming off the best half-season at the plate in his career. San Francisco needs a left-handed bat, particularly in right field. The reunion is meant to be. A thread 🧵

101,112 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

New hitting coach Hunter Mense on Tony Vitello: "My freshman year he was the pitching coach at Missouri. [He] had never stepped foot on a mound in his life... But if you have people skills, the ability to connect, you'll get a lot more out of your players."

New hitting coach Hunter Mense on Tony Vitello: "My freshman year he was the pitching coach at Missouri. [He] had never stepped foot on a mound in his life... But if you have people skills, the ability to connect, you'll get a lot more out of your players."

89,161 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

In 2025, the Giants’ outfield ranked second-to-last with -15 Fielding Runs. Jung Hoo Lee struggled mightily (-5 Outs Above Average), and he’s a much better fit for right field. If San Francisco considers itself a contender, the outfield has to be addressed. A thread 🧵

In 2025, the Giants’ outfield ranked second-to-last with -15 Fielding Runs. Jung Hoo Lee struggled mightily (-5 Outs Above Average), and he’s a much better fit for right field. If San Francisco considers itself a contender, the outfield has to be addressed. A thread 🧵

71,083 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Ben Jacobs is coming up on top-100 prospect status, and he's had great success in his first seven pro outings. 26.2 IP 39% K 9% BB 3.24 xFIP .167 BAA A third round pick out of Arizona State, the southpaw possesses a strong four-seam fastball. From a low 5.4 ft. release height, he averages 19 iVB and 9 inches horizontal at 94 mph, creating an very flat -4.1 VAA. 43% whiff. Hard to find comps from the left side, Shota Imanaga and Logan Allen are the best fits. Jacobs' main secondary is an 83 mph splitter with a somewhat inconsistent movement profile, averaging 10 iVB of separation from the fastball. Poor -6.4 VAA, but ran a 45% whiff rate. Will need more consistent feel below the zone to maintain success. 19% usage. He throws two breaking balls, an 85mph slider (5/-5, 2400 RPM), and a more slurvy, 80 mph breaker (-6/-11, 2600 RPM). The spin capacity is solid but the secondaries lack adequate velocity. Breakers combine for just 20% usage. I think he'd benefit from splitting the curve into a true SSW sweeper and a more depthy curve. The release traits and fastball shape make Jacobs a very solid bet to be a back-end big league starter, but to improve the upside he'll need to lower his fastball usage and sharpen the execution, velocity and shapes of the secondaries.

28,633 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

It’s unprecedented for a superstar, one with well over $200 million left on his deal, to be traded — let alone in the middle of June. But Buster Posey made it happen, acquiring arguably the Giants' best hitter since Barry Bonds: Rafael Devers. A thread

It’s unprecedented for a superstar, one with well over $200 million left on his deal, to be traded — let alone in the middle of June. But Buster Posey made it happen, acquiring arguably the Giants' best hitter since Barry Bonds: Rafael Devers. A thread

61,308 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

A Roch Cholowsky grand slam puts UCLA ahead 5-0 over TCU in the second inning. A towering shot.

A Roch Cholowsky grand slam puts UCLA ahead 5-0 over TCU in the second inning. A towering shot.

36,504 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Patrick Bailey has been a stud behind the plate this year. Here's 74 seconds of him stealing strikes for #sfgiants pitchers.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Patrick Bailey has been a stud behind the plate this year. Here's 74 seconds of him stealing strikes for #sfgiants pitchers.

66,172 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

F*ck it, 105 seconds of Patrick Bailey stealing Logan Webb strikes (according to baseball savant) because Bailey isn’t an All-Star #sfgiants:

F*ck it, 105 seconds of Patrick Bailey stealing Logan Webb strikes (according to baseball savant) because Bailey isn’t an All-Star #sfgiants:

81,181 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Jacob Odle is one of the most underrated pitching prospects in baseball. From a 6'5" frame, he gets down to a 6.2 ft. release and -4.8 VAA thanks to a low arm angle. The four-seam is elite, averaging 97 mph at 17 iVB. The only big league comps are Eury Perez and Garret Crochet. A 14th-round pick in '23, Odle underwent TJ and missed all of '24. He wasn't super sharp in his '25 return (51.2 innings between CPX and A, 28% K and 18% BB), but that's to be expected returning from elbow surgery. The 22-year-old already has incredibly polished stuff, with an 88 mph slider at 5/-4 (42% whiff). He throws a sharp 83 mph curveball at -11/-8 (-9.2 VAA). The changeup also projects as a plus offering, distinct from the four-seam at 4/17 90 mph. The stuff is already Major League plus, but he'll need to be in the strike zone more consistently.

Jacob Odle is one of the most underrated pitching prospects in baseball. From a 6'5" frame, he gets down to a 6.2 ft. release and -4.8 VAA thanks to a low arm angle. The four-seam is elite, averaging 97 mph at 17 iVB. The only big league comps are Eury Perez and Garret Crochet. A 14th-round pick in '23, Odle underwent TJ and missed all of '24. He wasn't super sharp in his '25 return (51.2 innings between CPX and A, 28% K and 18% BB), but that's to be expected returning from elbow surgery. The 22-year-old already has incredibly polished stuff, with an 88 mph slider at 5/-4 (42% whiff). He throws a sharp 83 mph curveball at -11/-8 (-9.2 VAA). The changeup also projects as a plus offering, distinct from the four-seam at 4/17 90 mph. The stuff is already Major League plus, but he'll need to be in the strike zone more consistently.

20,097 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Keaton Winn continues to test the upper bound of single-inning splitter usage, throwing 10/13 last night to strike out the side (full inning ⬇️). The pitch induced five whiffs on six swings and averaged 90.4 mph (career-high). That velocity with a -8.3 VAA is just ridiculous. On 27 splitters (66% usage) this year, he's thrown 19 strikes for 12 swing-and-misses. Just outrageous stuff.

Keaton Winn continues to test the upper bound of single-inning splitter usage, throwing 10/13 last night to strike out the side (full inning ⬇️). The pitch induced five whiffs on six swings and averaged 90.4 mph (career-high). That velocity with a -8.3 VAA is just ridiculous. On 27 splitters (66% usage) this year, he's thrown 19 strikes for 12 swing-and-misses. Just outrageous stuff.

11,988 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Daha fazla içerik yok.