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Mikael Valtersson

@MikaelValterss1 • 47,945 subscribers

Former officer Swedish Armed Forces/Air Defence, former defence politician and chief of staff Sweden Democrats. Current political and military analyst.

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NEWS UPDATE NOVA KAKHOVKA EVENING JUNE 7 I don't know who's responsible for destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, but if you do what you can to worsen the situation and destroy the remnants of the dam, you're the prime suspect, not the victim. Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward. The already undermined remnants of the Novo Kakhovka dam risk to totally collapse from the water pressure and later on, the flooding of Kherson oblast are worsened. That's an clear indication that Ukraine on purpose worsen the situation and are also a clear indication that Ukraine was the original culprit. The fact that the ukrainians also increased the level of water in the reservoir before the destruction of the dam are not an proof of their guilt. They couldn't know that the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam. There could be some natural cause for opening the gates at Dnipro HDD before the destruction of the Novo Kakhovka dam, but afterwards nothing could be more important than to lessen the flooding in Kherson oblast.

NEWS UPDATE NOVA KAKHOVKA EVENING JUNE 7 I don't know who's responsible for destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, but if you do what you can to worsen the situation and destroy the remnants of the dam, you're the prime suspect, not the victim. Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward. The already undermined remnants of the Novo Kakhovka dam risk to totally collapse from the water pressure and later on, the flooding of Kherson oblast are worsened. That's an clear indication that Ukraine on purpose worsen the situation and are also a clear indication that Ukraine was the original culprit. The fact that the ukrainians also increased the level of water in the reservoir before the destruction of the dam are not an proof of their guilt. They couldn't know that the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam. There could be some natural cause for opening the gates at Dnipro HDD before the destruction of the Novo Kakhovka dam, but afterwards nothing could be more important than to lessen the flooding in Kherson oblast.

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NEWS UPDATE INFOWAR THE UKRAINIAN TAKE ON THIS WEEK Bagdad Bob has met his match. I thought Ukraine used the tactic of the Charge of the Light Brigade during the Crimean War in 1854 to no avail but I was clearly wrong. The Ukrainian forces seems to have wiped out a quarter of the Russian forces on the Southern front, according to the in the future infamous Zaporozhye Alex (ArmedMaidan). But it's no wonder everything are going so badly for the Russians this week since, according to Zaporozhye Alex, the Russian army became combat incapable already in March after suffering losses of 665 000 men then, probably a million lost now. If you doubt me you can read it in the Kyiv Post, so it must be the truth. Sorry but I couldn't take this seriously. But if many on the Ukrainian side believe this kind of rubbish, that could explain much this week.

NEWS UPDATE INFOWAR THE UKRAINIAN TAKE ON THIS WEEK Bagdad Bob has met his match. I thought Ukraine used the tactic of the Charge of the Light Brigade during the Crimean War in 1854 to no avail but I was clearly wrong. The Ukrainian forces seems to have wiped out a quarter of the Russian forces on the Southern front, according to the in the future infamous Zaporozhye Alex (ArmedMaidan). But it's no wonder everything are going so badly for the Russians this week since, according to Zaporozhye Alex, the Russian army became combat incapable already in March after suffering losses of 665 000 men then, probably a million lost now. If you doubt me you can read it in the Kyiv Post, so it must be the truth. Sorry but I couldn't take this seriously. But if many on the Ukrainian side believe this kind of rubbish, that could explain much this week.

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NEWS UPDATE BAKHMUT/ARTEMOVSK LATE AFTERNOON MAY 20 Bakmut has fallen. Ukrainian forces in the SW corner of the city and near the city in the fields has retreated. Mopping up operations will continue until May 25th. But it seems Bakhmut is fully in Wagner/russian hands now. There are more rumours about other progress for the russian side, as for example the capture of Khromove as well, but such rumours tend to run wild when big things happen, so until otherwise proven I will discard those rumours. Wagner forces and many prorussians are or will celebrate today. They got their special date, May 20th, now known as the liberation day, of Mariupol and Bakhmut. Ukrainian authorities and many proukrainians will probably deny the fall of Bakhmut a couple of days at least. When Soledar fell it took two weeks until ukrainian authorities conceded defeat. I will write a little more detailed update in a while and both talk about what happened during the battle, it's consequences and future possibilities. Last but not least I must express my respect to all those fine warriors from both sides who has fought hard and bravely during the battle of Bakhmut. And also ask everybody to give some thoughts to the tens of thousands of soldiers who have been killed, maimed or wounded during the battle.

NEWS UPDATE BAKHMUT/ARTEMOVSK LATE AFTERNOON MAY 20 Bakmut has fallen. Ukrainian forces in the SW corner of the city and near the city in the fields has retreated. Mopping up operations will continue until May 25th. But it seems Bakhmut is fully in Wagner/russian hands now. There are more rumours about other progress for the russian side, as for example the capture of Khromove as well, but such rumours tend to run wild when big things happen, so until otherwise proven I will discard those rumours. Wagner forces and many prorussians are or will celebrate today. They got their special date, May 20th, now known as the liberation day, of Mariupol and Bakhmut. Ukrainian authorities and many proukrainians will probably deny the fall of Bakhmut a couple of days at least. When Soledar fell it took two weeks until ukrainian authorities conceded defeat. I will write a little more detailed update in a while and both talk about what happened during the battle, it's consequences and future possibilities. Last but not least I must express my respect to all those fine warriors from both sides who has fought hard and bravely during the battle of Bakhmut. And also ask everybody to give some thoughts to the tens of thousands of soldiers who have been killed, maimed or wounded during the battle.

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NEWS UPDATE, KURSK FRONT 11:00 CET, MARCH 12, 2025 The Russian counteroffensive continues (map 1). Only the western suburbs of Sudzha remain in Ukrainian hands. As sideshows in the west, RuAF also has made minor progress south of Lebedevka and towards Basivka on the Ukrainian side of the border. The situation is fluid and it's hard to know how many Ukrainian soldiers are left. Therefore it's hard to predict how fast the Russian advance will proceed. Yesterday I wouldn't have expected a Russian assault over the river in the middle of Sudzha, but RuAF must have seen that there were few defenders and attacked. The next step for the Russian forces (map 2) is to take the western suburbs in Sudzha and then continue towards the border along the two roads (white on map 2). The goal would be to retake the northern 60 kmsq (A) that remains in Ukrainian hands. By this operation they will also cut off any possibility to supply area B in the sparsely populated southern 60 kmsq, including the villages of Guevo and Gornal. This operation will probably take 2-4 days. If area B, i.e. the Guevo cauldron, hasn't already been abandoned by the Ukrainans, when the northern part is taken, the final operation in the Second battle of Kursk will be the elimination of this area. That part of the operation will probably take 1-2 days. All in all, we can expect the battle of Kursk to be over in 2-6 days. In the video you see Russian troops calmly showing the Russian flag in the centre of Sudzha earlier this morning. Credit to @Suriyak for his eminent Google map which I use as the basis for my map.

NEWS UPDATE, KURSK FRONT 11:00 CET, MARCH 12, 2025 The Russian counteroffensive continues (map 1). Only the western suburbs of Sudzha remain in Ukrainian hands. As sideshows in the west, RuAF also has made minor progress south of Lebedevka and towards Basivka on the Ukrainian side of the border. The situation is fluid and it's hard to know how many Ukrainian soldiers are left. Therefore it's hard to predict how fast the Russian advance will proceed. Yesterday I wouldn't have expected a Russian assault over the river in the middle of Sudzha, but RuAF must have seen that there were few defenders and attacked. The next step for the Russian forces (map 2) is to take the western suburbs in Sudzha and then continue towards the border along the two roads (white on map 2). The goal would be to retake the northern 60 kmsq (A) that remains in Ukrainian hands. By this operation they will also cut off any possibility to supply area B in the sparsely populated southern 60 kmsq, including the villages of Guevo and Gornal. This operation will probably take 2-4 days. If area B, i.e. the Guevo cauldron, hasn't already been abandoned by the Ukrainans, when the northern part is taken, the final operation in the Second battle of Kursk will be the elimination of this area. That part of the operation will probably take 1-2 days. All in all, we can expect the battle of Kursk to be over in 2-6 days. In the video you see Russian troops calmly showing the Russian flag in the centre of Sudzha earlier this morning. Credit to @Suriyak for his eminent Google map which I use as the basis for my map.

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Who is in charge in Moscow when daddy is away? 😎

Who is in charge in Moscow when daddy is away? 😎

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NEWS UPDATE & ANALYSIS NOVA KAKHOVKA DAM DESTROYED MORNING JUNE 6 The very large hydroelectric powerplant (HPP) dam over the Dniepr in northern Kherson oblast (region) has been destroyed. Exactly what happened is unclear, Ukraine and its western allies blame Russia. Some russian sources blame Ukraine. There is also a third alternative. The dam could have been damaged from earlier explosions. Ukraine did its best during the Khersonoffensive to cut the road on top of the dam with serveral missile strikes, and the dam might have got structural damage then. Earlier this year Ukraine closed the reservoirs further north on the Dniepr and some experts thought that was to lower the water level in the reservoir to make offensive operations easier. But later Ukraine opened up the water. The reservoir has been filling up with this water and it has put pressure on the Nova Kakhovka dam. There are no reasons for Russia to blow up the dam, since the water flowing to the south will mainly overflow the russian left eastern side of the river (look on the before and after maps) and the russian fortifications there. So the main alternatives are either that the ukrainian side destroyed the dam, but no large explosions has been seen, in preparation for the summer offensive, or that the dam collapsed under water pressure due to structural damage. The dam continue to collapse in sections and the water level in the reservoir sink with 15 cm each hour. For now there are no problems with cooling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP). But it might have to be closed if cooling becomes a problem. Water supply of Crimea are not threatened. The canal to Crimea starts north of the dam and it can be closed if water levels in the reservoir becomes to low. The small reservoirs along the canal are also filled to 80 percent. Power supply might become a large problem in large parts of Ukraine both in ukrainian and russian controlled territory if both Nova Kakhovka HPP and ZNPP are put out of function. Ukrainian economy will also get a hit since Ukraine has been able to export surplus electricity to Europe, which will be impossible now. If the ukrainian side close the dams north of the reservoir, water levels can get very low in the reservoir. It will make an attack over the reservoir much easier, but first the freed bottom must dry up, otherwise it will be hard to support anything else than very light infantry units. South of the dam some swy it will make an ukrainian attack easier since russian defence lines will be destroyed, but for a while the left eastern back will be overflowed and the Dniepr much broader. This will make it hard to build bridges and move heavy equipment over the river.

NEWS UPDATE & ANALYSIS NOVA KAKHOVKA DAM DESTROYED MORNING JUNE 6 The very large hydroelectric powerplant (HPP) dam over the Dniepr in northern Kherson oblast (region) has been destroyed. Exactly what happened is unclear, Ukraine and its western allies blame Russia. Some russian sources blame Ukraine. There is also a third alternative. The dam could have been damaged from earlier explosions. Ukraine did its best during the Khersonoffensive to cut the road on top of the dam with serveral missile strikes, and the dam might have got structural damage then. Earlier this year Ukraine closed the reservoirs further north on the Dniepr and some experts thought that was to lower the water level in the reservoir to make offensive operations easier. But later Ukraine opened up the water. The reservoir has been filling up with this water and it has put pressure on the Nova Kakhovka dam. There are no reasons for Russia to blow up the dam, since the water flowing to the south will mainly overflow the russian left eastern side of the river (look on the before and after maps) and the russian fortifications there. So the main alternatives are either that the ukrainian side destroyed the dam, but no large explosions has been seen, in preparation for the summer offensive, or that the dam collapsed under water pressure due to structural damage. The dam continue to collapse in sections and the water level in the reservoir sink with 15 cm each hour. For now there are no problems with cooling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP). But it might have to be closed if cooling becomes a problem. Water supply of Crimea are not threatened. The canal to Crimea starts north of the dam and it can be closed if water levels in the reservoir becomes to low. The small reservoirs along the canal are also filled to 80 percent. Power supply might become a large problem in large parts of Ukraine both in ukrainian and russian controlled territory if both Nova Kakhovka HPP and ZNPP are put out of function. Ukrainian economy will also get a hit since Ukraine has been able to export surplus electricity to Europe, which will be impossible now. If the ukrainian side close the dams north of the reservoir, water levels can get very low in the reservoir. It will make an attack over the reservoir much easier, but first the freed bottom must dry up, otherwise it will be hard to support anything else than very light infantry units. South of the dam some swy it will make an ukrainian attack easier since russian defence lines will be destroyed, but for a while the left eastern back will be overflowed and the Dniepr much broader. This will make it hard to build bridges and move heavy equipment over the river.

Mikael Valtersson

488,013 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

NEWS UPDATE CAPTURED WESTERN WEAPONS CV9040 MORNING JULY 30 I'm back and write a couple of longer tweets later today, but now, just a short update of personal interest. A first swedish CV9040 IFV has been captured by the RuAF on the Kreminna-Svatove front. Sweden delivered 50 CV9040 IFV:s to Ukraine earlier this summer. They seem to be in use on the Kreminna-Svatove front. Two CV9040:s has already been destroyed earlier and this was the third lost. In video 2 you see when two CV9040 counterattack and the first one is hit. Allegedly the commander of the vehicle was killed and the rest of the crew abandoned it. Later on Russian combat engineers retrieved the vehicle. As a former officer from Sweden, partly working with the CV9040 SPAAG, it's good to hear commentators say it's the most advanced IFV in the world. But it's still a IFV and easily destroyed by AT-weapons. Allegedly UkrAF has got the most modern CV9040 C variant. It has better protection, laser orange finders and good air conditioning. But the bulky upgrades reduce the capacity to transport soldiers from 8 to 6 men.

NEWS UPDATE CAPTURED WESTERN WEAPONS CV9040 MORNING JULY 30 I'm back and write a couple of longer tweets later today, but now, just a short update of personal interest. A first swedish CV9040 IFV has been captured by the RuAF on the Kreminna-Svatove front. Sweden delivered 50 CV9040 IFV:s to Ukraine earlier this summer. They seem to be in use on the Kreminna-Svatove front. Two CV9040:s has already been destroyed earlier and this was the third lost. In video 2 you see when two CV9040 counterattack and the first one is hit. Allegedly the commander of the vehicle was killed and the rest of the crew abandoned it. Later on Russian combat engineers retrieved the vehicle. As a former officer from Sweden, partly working with the CV9040 SPAAG, it's good to hear commentators say it's the most advanced IFV in the world. But it's still a IFV and easily destroyed by AT-weapons. Allegedly UkrAF has got the most modern CV9040 C variant. It has better protection, laser orange finders and good air conditioning. But the bulky upgrades reduce the capacity to transport soldiers from 8 to 6 men.

Mikael Valtersson

188,504 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Pokrovsk looks a lot better today compared to Chasiv Yar. Video from Telegram channel

Pokrovsk looks a lot better today compared to Chasiv Yar. Video from Telegram channel

Mikael Valtersson

29,308 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

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