Mike
@MikeLongTerm • 26,928 subscribers
Long Term Investor Largest Holding $AMD $PLTR $TSLA Others $XYZ $HIMS $GRAB $TSM $AMZN $NVDA $LMT $ETH $BTC $META $GOOGL $WING $ADBE $BROS Not Financial Advice
Shorts
Videos
$AMD | Folks are asking why there is a massive disconnect here between $800 and $465 🧵 May be this should help, and most subscribers and followers already know. 1. I don't offer Financial Advice! 2. We have so many individual and institutional bears who made millions selling AI bubble fear porn and think they are smarter than the best CEOs in the world. Hence most semiconductor stocks are trading at 15–25x forward P/E even with massive growth, AMD included. I actually believe this is healthy, keeping valuations in check to give new investors better return. Would u prefer to invest at 15-25x fwd P/E or 30-50x fwd P/E? 3. Guidance is issued by the quarter, so we will only know officially in November 2026 for that biggest inflection in Q4. 4. Institutions are rotating back and forth between value stocks and growth stocks; out of AI, into AI stocks; one week risk-on, another week risk-off. They are trading much more frequently now. 5. Most AMD analysts are becoming more and more bullish, but projections and forecasts are still 30–50% lower than what management has provided so far. We all know Dr. Su is the queen of sandbagging, so adjust accordingly. This is the first time I heard her tell analysts directly on the Q&A that their estimates are too low. 6. Institutions are accepting that agentic AI is going to have a severe shortage and that it will also take time for TSMC to scale. The largest CPU ramp will be #1 AMD, then #2 NVIDIA from Q4 2026. So institutions have some months to play around and see what the Federal Reserve is saying. TSMC is scaling 11-15 2nm Fabs at the fastest pace since its inception btw!!! 7. TSMC does not really disclose customers' allocation, so most of us are projecting from available data, which makes growth 10x more difficult to predict. However, AMD is TSMC’s third largest customer and is on track to become the second largest. The largest CoWoS allocation increase for 2027 is AMD, per a Morgan Stanley note. 8. Just because I gave out my personal PT does not mean it will get there. It may be higher or lower. I just know that even at $800 it would be trading at 30–35x FY2027 P/E, which is reasonable for triple-digit growth, in my opinion. A few potential rate hikes could lower forward P/E a bit, but they will not be able to stop the J-curve quarters and years from AMD over the next 3–5 years. 9. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, so semiconductor stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now that yields rise monthly to build out data centers. That is the reality most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks lending the capital to hyperscalers, AI labs, and neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on the AI industrial revolution. 10. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, hence Semi stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now, that yield rises weekly/monthly to build out Data Centers. It is the reality that most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks that are lending the capital for Hyperscalers , AI Labs and Neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on AI Industrial revolution:)) 9. We just had one of the biggest deleveraging events in semis that blew up many accounts from the U.S. to South Korea. 10. People call me crazy in 2024-2025 to say AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by end of 2026, we werent really that far off $620 2 months ago:)). Again, I been covering AMD for years, and Agentic AI demand is going to pump CPU demand by 50-100x vs 2024-2025. We are only 6 months in, and Agents are now using 14x more tokens than Human. Keep in mind, we are only 3-5 agents on average across all Enterprises. We are just so early. Medium-Long Term, Hyperscalers, AI labs and Enterprises will scale to hundreds and thousands of Agents doing tasks 24/7 using various AI Models from cheap to most expensive. People called me crazy in 2024–2025 for saying AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by the end of 2026. We weren’t really that far off $620 two months ago. Alright, that is it. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
Mike50,427 просмотров • 10 дней назад
$PLTR $AMD | Dr. Karp and Dr. Su were right! ✍️ Companies are now fighting back. Dr. Karp, Palantir CEO, recently told CNBC that enterprises are privately "unhappy" with frontier AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic, accusing them of prioritizing "tokenmaxxing" or maximizing AI token consumption to signal activity over delivering real business value and understanding customer needs. Uber, Coinbases routing to capping token usage or routing to cheaper models to keep cost under control. or Microsoft revoked Claude Code licenses companywide, Priceline imposed token limits after sharp cost spikes, and reports cite Meta, Salesforce, and multiple unnamed firms facing 3x+ budget overruns or $ hundreds of millions in unexpected spend by mid-2026. Analysts note this as an emerging industry pattern, with FinOps and executives describing "existential crises" over token bills; dozens of enterprises are now adding guardrails, though public complaints remain concentrated among high-profile tech firms experimenting at scale. Dr. Lisa Su anticipated the pivot to inference economics and CPU-dense systems for agentic AI, correctly predicting that token costs, power efficiency, and deployability on standard platforms would determine scalable adoption long before the current enterprise pushback. Dr. Alex Karp accurately diagnosed the disconnect in frontier labs' approach, calling out "tokenmaxxing" as activity without outcomes; enterprises are indeed demanding real implementation and business-specific value rather than raw volume that inflates bills without proportional ROI. Together, their independent foresight validates the maturing AI thesis, efficient infrastructure (AMD Helios/EPYC optimized for lowest TCO & $/M Tokens) paired with outcome-focused platforms (Palantir AIP/Foundry) positions both companies to benefit as the market shifts from hype-driven consumption to sustainable, value-driven deployment. Yes it may look good on the revenue growth for AI Labs to show off on IPOs investors/bankers, but the customers have to find value in those tokens spent where $NVDA & In-house chips on inference claims are just false. At the end of the day, ~Token cost needs to go down more & more particularly inference by owning more AMD chips/racks. In-house chips can make all kind of claims for years, but the bills enterprises paid have to obey economic. ~Enterprises want a thick software OS or solution focused, they do not want to have unlimited budget for "tokenmaxxing" where it is leading to high costs with limited business transformation; success increasingly depends on implementation layers that route tasks, enforce policies, and connect AI to existing workflows. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
Mike253,557 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
Mike399,806 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
BREAKING $GRAB Q2 2026 Earning Call Full✅🚀 This is a Triple Beat Quarter, while short sellers expected misses and negative EPS. Short sellers love lying about Mike and lose $5-$10B long term. Current Short Interest: 315,168,660 shares Q2 2026 Earning Call: Revenue: $997M vs $989.5M est ✅ EPS: $0.06 vs $0.01 est ✅ Raised Guidance to $4.1-$4.15B ✅ $750M additional Buyback✅ MTUs hit ATH 54M 17% YoY✅ GrabUnlimited mem grew 20% YoY ✅ Loanbook accelerated to $2.3B or 197% YoY✅ GrabFin is on track to be profitable in H2✅ Gross & net cash liquidity were $7.4B & $5.4B✅ ~Affordability is unlocking new users and enforcing daily habit. ~Groceries or GrabMart grew 1.7 times the rate of Food Deliveries ~GrabFin is approaching Profitability in H2 ~Gross Loan Portfolio nearly tripled YoY to $2.3 billion ~The ecosystem lowers our cost to serve in Financial Services, and Financial Services strengthens the ecosystem in return ~The consolidation of Superbank and our acquisition of Stash are two of the most exciting additions we have made to this segment ~AI interaction with Merchants and Customers x10 ~Our engineers now pair with autonomous coding agents as standard practice, cutting time to market of new products by up to 30% YoY, while Jarvis, our internal AI data analytics assistant, cumulatively saves our sales teams approximately 40,000 hours every quarter. ~ H2 is expanding operating leverage with a strong momentum ~Superbank and Stash add higher growth and we have some Currencies volatility ~Deliveries GMV growth accelerated from the prior two quarters on a constant currency basis to 24% YoY, as we drove both Food and Mart MTUs to hit an all-time high in June. Q&A: ~We are on track for GrabFin to hit profitability in H2 2026 ~We are managing risk prudently on loan book as we scale it ~SuperBank been growing rapidly with over 7M customers. 60% of SuperBank uses Grab SuperApp. ~ Stash reaches $5.5B AUM with strong subscribers growth, help us drive GrabFin profitability ~ Uber relating to acquiring Delivery Hero. We have a strong flywheel on our SuperApp, we are not afraid of competition. ~ GrabMart has lots of upside or growth. Deepening partnerships with different groceries to drive growth ~ AI-auto grab groceries ~ Indonesia Commission Cap on 2 wheels and only 6% of GMV ~ Fuel Price is volatile, we will continue to support our drivers. We have even more drivers coming in the SuperApp. We already factored the support in the guidance. If Fuel goes down, that will help us. ~ Longer term, more EVs coming in at rapid pace. EVs reduce TCO for drivers. This quarter we have 9 new EV partnerships and expand charging relationships. ~ Mobility we care about number of rides and drivers as we face fuel volatility. We want to have strong supply of drivers to service strong demand. We are making sure Drivers earning up, make a good living. Margin was 8.6%, and we want to keep it healthy, we want this setup going into Q3 as we don't know where oil price gonna go. ~We executed $400M buyback from $500m announced at current share price. With new $750M additional Buyback take our cumulative buyback to $1.75B since 2024. We want to return capital back to shareholders as we generate more FCF from our businesses to drive shareholders' value long term ~ We are leading AV in Singapore, it will be a while for other SEA countries as most are 2 wheels ~ We want high density, trust, and scale. ~ Foodpanda Taiwan, We remain on track to enter Taiwan market. We working closely with Taiwanese regulators and expect to close by end of year. 1. FY2026 Group Revenue guidance of $4.10 billion - $4.15 billion (22% - 23% YoY growth); and 2. FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $720 million - $740 million (44% - 48% YoY growth).
Mike112,313 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
BREAKING $PLTR Institutional Ownership hit ATH 🫡 Institutional Shares 1,750,136,219 shares or 76.22% Institutional Owners 4185 total 4059 long only, 26 short only, 100 long/short Palantir is getting accumulated by "Smart money" Retail investors been trimming since Nov 2024 and more aggressive exits May, June and July. If I have to guess, many of these folks sold & went on Margin on some hyped stocks because they thought they could 25-34x money like they did on Palantir in 3 years. Unfortunately, we don't really have that many high quality companies. You probably saw many of the "X ticker is the next Palantir" BS. Only Palantir can be the next Palantir. If your bull thesis is to tag Palantir to hype it up, the last 4-5 trading days should give u some valuation lessons, I hope! Alright, that is it. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
Mike104,795 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
$HIMS long term shareholders suddenly realized Institutional Ownership is approaching 96%(Fintel). Retail ownership is very LOW here, after $NVO Feb drama. Meaning Short sellers been lying for months and years about institutions. This is why I track 13Fs regularly on all these years and share it for Free.99. It is important to look at what "smart money" does, not what bears said. Institutional Owners 866 total 792 long only, 38 short only, 36 long/short Institutional Shares (Long): 215,659,845 - 95.88% You are welcome! Please do not subscribe if you can't afford it, focus on accumulate your wealth first. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
Mike41,383 просмотров • 14 дней назад
$PLTR $AMD $TSLA $GRAB $HIMS Far way too many people trying to go $100,000 to $1m in a month than $100,000 to $10,000,000 in 10 years. I can't understand this gambling rush nature. The truth is, most of these folks blew up their accounts, and came back much more conservative than before. Then they go heavy on Indexes or $COST, $AAPL or $KO or SP500. Especially young kids, why do you need to rush? You have plenty of time, 5-10 years aint that long. Don't listen to anyone, put in the countless hours and get started. Do your own DD 🫵 Research high quality growth businesses, and know what you own. And write down on a paper: ~What is your financial goal to retire and where? ~What can you do to increase your income to contribute more monthly? ~What makes you happy? ~And lastly, What is your long term goal? Not Financial Advice!
Mike665,965 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад
BREAKING $AMD Upgraded $755| BUY Rating🚨 Phillip Securities Adjusts Price Target on AMD to $755 from $520, Maintains Buy Rating
Mike138,235 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!
Mike711,006 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад
$AMD Dr. Su full press in Taiwan 🆕🚨🚨🚨 I dont think AMD analysts or bears are ready for H2 2026 and 2027. The level of growth will be so massive that everyone would be shocked. Well mostly because they didnt read Mike threads. CPU:GPU Ratio is much higher than 1:1, most likely in the 3-5:1 moving to 5-10:1 . Enterprises are demanding more and more agents running tasks longer and more intensive. Dr. Su is too nice to say it out loud. But that does not mean training gonna go away. Just growing significantly slower than Inference.
Mike233,700 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
$AMD $AMZN partnership will 🚀 in 2026 🔥 Amazon/AMD partnership is hidden among hot headlines from OpenAI $NVDA $ORCL... TLDR: Amazon refused to bid up the overpriced $NVDA chips among other hyperscalers, and decided to work closely with $AMD. Amazon is expected to spend up to $10-$20B a year on 2026 EPYC breakthrough Gen and Future Gen. Dr. Su confirmed "we have plenty for other large customers". For its 2026 EPYC "Venice" processors, AMD is using a multi-node manufacturing strategy: the CPU core complex dies (CCDs) are built on TSMC's 2 nm-class node (N2), while the I/O die (IOD) uses the N3P (3 nm) process. Context: Andy Jassy Amazon Web Services has been working with AMD on EPYC processors since November 2018. With this "secret weapon" breakthrough(patented), this long time partnership has expanded to New breakthrough 2026 EPYC Gen. AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for AWS, enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. AMD to benefit AWS's $100B+ AI opportunity along with $ORCL $MSFT $GOOGL $META Saudi, UAE ,38+ countries and startups. In early October, Amazon/AWS announced the new EC2 M8a instances as their latest-generation, general-purpose compute instances now powered by AMD EPYC 9005 "Turin" processors. Amazon announced the M8a as having up to 30% higher performance and up to 19% better price performance over M7a. With my testing of both at 32 vCPUs, the new AMD EPYC Turin instance provided 1.59x the performance over the prior-generation EPYC Genoa instance! How will this impact AWS AI Inference? ~Cost Efficiency: Inference is 80%+ of AI workloads and latency-sensitive (e.g., chatbots need <1s responses). "Secret weapon" enables 35x better inference perf (per AMD's CDNA roadmap tie-in), cutting AWS's energy use by 50%+ in clusters. With $118B 2025 capex, this could save $20–$30B annually in OPEX, boosting margins to 35%-40%. ~Scalability for Agentic AI: Supports "Helios" rack-scale platforms (up to 128 GPUs + EPYC hosts), delivering 3.58x FP6 perf for distributed inference. AWS can run 700K+ more tokens/sec in 1,000-node clusters (via EPYC 9575F boosts), enabling real-time apps like personalized search or fraud detection at enterprise scale. ~Adoption Catalysts: Early partners like Oracle signal broad uptake; AWS's existing AMD instances G4ad with Radeon GPUs) pave the way. By 2026, EPYC could power 40%+ of AWS AI infra, outpacing Nvidia's GPU lock-in via open standards (ROCm 8 software). Lastly, Amazon’s trajectory toward a $320 stock price is not a speculative leap but a grounded projection rooted in its unmatched fundamentals and strategic AI leadership. With Amazon Web Services poised to surpass $100 billion in annual revenue by 2026, driven by explosive AI inference demand, Amazon is redefining cloud computing’s future. The adoption of AMD’s 2026 EPYC processors with "Secret" architecture is a game-changer, slashing costs by up to 50% and boosting inference throughput 3x, enabling AWS to dominate enterprise AI workloads with unmatched efficiency. This technological edge, combined with Amazon’s e-commerce dominance and high-margin advertising growth, supports a valuation rerating to 22x EV/EBITDA, and it is still a discount to historical highs. Trading at $222, $AMZN is undervalued for its 15–20% revenue CAGR and 25%+ EPS growth through 2030.
Mike511,082 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад
BREAKING $PLTR Palantir Dr. Karp Brandnew Interview on CNBC 🚀🚀🚀 Software companies are trying too hard to copy Palantir (FDEs) but failed to beat Rule of 40 at ATH 145%! "Do you understanding AI?" - Alex Karp Bullish on Elon Musk running SpaceX Space Business. No idea abt other Space companies. Source & Credit: CNBC No Copy Right, just sharing for Palantir community
Mike140,796 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
$AMD's heading to $5T MC LT| Lowest $/M tokens 🧵 The real reason why Institutions are FOMOing into AMD while other Semi stocks are underperforming ($NVDA $AVGO) Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Under Dr. Lisa Su’s leadership, AMD has transformed from a distant challenger into a formidable force in AI infrastructure, delivering the industry’s most compelling TCO story for high-volume inference. Her clear vision open ecosystems, aggressive annual roadmaps, rack-scale innovation, and relentless focus on tokens-per-dollar has positioned AMD’s Helios racks as the go-to solution for hyperscalers and AI natives struggling with exploding token costs, collapsing the cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens. I will link various threads on this analysis to supply chain and wafer ratio if you are interested in understanding the full picture. In the last 3-4 months, explosive Agentic AI demand significantly increased Inference demand for Agentic AI models with 5-10 agents. If you are a listener of CNBC or Bloomberg, u should know enterprises and companies are complaining abt cost of token, and how it starts to spike up way too much to make sense. The fact that most data center today are run by $NVDA Chips, where the cost is way too high for Training or Inference. 1. Token cost Here are some quick comp, so u understand why $META OpenAI Anthropic $MSFT $AMZN Softbank $GOOGL and many more small to medium AI Natives are buying AMD CPUs and GPUs as much as they want, or pretty much AMD chips are sold out for the next 3-5 years. Inference (Cost per Million Tokens) ~$NVDA B200 / HGX: ~$0.02–$0.08 on optimized workloads (FP4/MXFP4, speculative decoding). Significant improvement over Hopper but still premium-priced. GB200 NVL72 rack-scale: $0.05–$0.25+ ~$AMD Helios Racks: $0.0003-$0.0005 per M tokens, dramatically lower than NVIDIA equivalents in owned infra. MI355X node-level: Up to 40% more tokens per dollar vs. competing solutions ( B200), driven by higher memory capacity (up to 288GB+ HBM), strong bandwidth, and lower acquisition costs. Training ~$NVDA Rubin Rack is estimated $0.7-$1.2/M Tokens ~$AMD Helios Rack is estimated $0.65-$1.0/M Tokens 2. Why Hyperscalers and AI Natives Are Choosing AMD Token consumption (especially Agentic) is outpacing even NVIDIA’s efficiency gains, making diversification mandatory for economic viability. Massive deals reflect this reality like $META, OpenAI, $MSFT, Softbank, $AMZN, Oracle, LumaAI, G42... Dr. Lisa Su’s Vision in Action: Since taking the helm, Su has driven AMD’s turnaround with disciplined execution, annual GPU cadence (MI300 → MI350 → MI400), full-stack software (ROCm 7), open ecosystems (UALink, OCP designs), and customer-centric rack-scale solutions like Helios. Her emphasis on “tokens per dollar” and TCO has turned AMD into the pragmatic choice for sustainable AI scaling. Power/Energy Efficiency: ~Helios Rack-level is estimated at 120kW-140kW with 50% more HBM4 where Inference and Training cost matter ~Rubin Rack-Level is estimated at 160kW-230kw AMD Helios shines in owned TCO, memory density, and energy flexibility at hyperscale. Cost to build 1GW data center 1GW Helios Rack full build is estimated $30-$35B 1GW Rubin Rack full build is estimated $45-$55B 3. Superior CPUs to pair with GPUs on massive scale 5-10-20GW Agentic AI. autonomous, multi-step workflows with orchestration, tool use, parallel agents, data movement, and enterprise integration has dramatically increased the importance of strong host CPUs alongside GPUs. This shifts the CPU-to-GPU ratio higher and makes balanced systems critical toward 1:1 to 5:1 as enterprises testing more than 5-10 agents. AMD EPYC Venice excels ~Leadership core density (up to 256 Zen 6 cores per socket) for running many agents in parallel, orchestration layers, and high-throughput control-plane tasks. ~Superior performance-per-core and power efficiency ( up to 2.1x higher perf/core and 2.26x better SPECpower vs. NVIDIA Grace in benchmarks). ~Tight integration in Helios: One Venice CPU + multiple MI450 GPUs per node, enabling efficient data feeding to GPUs ("zero-copy"), parallel execution, and full rack utilization for complex agentic loops. Hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Softbank) and AI natives (OpenAI, Anthropic...) are adopting high-core EPYC at scale specifically for these agentic demands, as CPUs now handle a larger share of non-model work (orchestration, policy enforcement, tool calls). This complements AMD’s lower-cost GPUs for overall TCO wins. Conclusion: NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin cannot compete with a 2 years old EPYC Turin, but AMD under Dr. Lisa Su has engineered the lowest cost-per-million-tokens, highly competitive energy-efficient solutions, and superior CPU orchestration for agentic AI at scale with Helios. Dr. Su has championed this shift since at least 2023, foreseeing the rise of agentic workflows that demand far more orchestration, parallel agents, and balanced compute well before the industry fully embraced it. Her long-term vision of AI moving from simple prompts to always-on, multi-agent systems has driven AMD’s investments in high-core EPYC CPUs and integrated rack-scale solutions, perfectly positioning the company for today’s realities. Hyperscalers and AI natives effectively have no choice but to buy more AMD system for Agentic AI as leadership in economical, power-aware, high-volume internal + agentic use. However, due to supply constraints where Supply is far behind Demand, this makes multi-vendor reality along with in-house chips drive faster industry progress, lower overall costs, and better sustainability. Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Video source: Microsoft Build 2026
Mike145,992 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
$PLTR is way too cheap at this valuation!🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Price to Sales P/S Year Revenue YoY Growth P/S 2020 $1.093B 47% 40x 2021 $1.542B 41% 24x 2022 $1.906B 24% 7x 2023 $2.225B 17% 17x 2024 $2.866B 29% 63x 2025 $4.475B 56% 102x Current SP: $137.75 or $329B Market cap Projection 2026 2027 2028. P/S is based on today MC Dr. Karp said 2027 to grow 100%+ revenue. For 2028, we can take a more conservative at 60%! 2026 $8B 79% 41x 2027 $16-$17B 100-112% 20x 2028 $26.4B 60% 12.4x ~At this kind of growth ~Rule of 40 at 145% ~Adj Operating Margin 60% and expanding ~Adj FCF Margin 57% and expanding ~EPS grew annualized rate of 76.5% to 78.9% The best margin profile vs any SaaS companies today. Is it really expensive at fwd 12.4x-20x P/S? At this kind of growth & margin: 40-50x Fwd P/S is reasonable. Of course if growth slows, Multiple will compress like 2022-2023, but that was a lovely buying opportunity for long term investor like myself :)). Absolutely not. Yes $IGV Is doing its things as Anthropic is selling fear-porn that they can destroy and bankrupt any software companies. But no software companies are delivering this kind of growth, so Palantir is the AI wave. We are experiencing a sharp pullback, but I will leave you with this clip. Are you a long term investor or trader? This isnt the first time Palantir pulls back. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
Mike168,655 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
$HIMS| Adjustment on Growth toward 2030🧵 Not Financial Advice! FY2025: Revenue: $2.35B or 58% YoY (weightloss $740), Core $1.61B FY2026: Revenue $3.2B(36%) where weightloss may be down by 10-15% or flat. FY2027: Revenue $4.16B(30%) FY2028: Revenue: $5.2B(25%) FY2029 Revenue: $6.5B(25%) FY2030 Revenue: $8.12B(25%) I expect management to ramp up buyback from FCF generation while company is trading at under 2x P/S andrewdudum. The discontinuation of Hims & Hers' compounded oral semaglutide pill in early February 2026(after 2 days), prompted by FDA regulatory actions and legal pressures from Novo Nordisk, introduces near-term challenges to the weight loss segment but does not derail the company's broader growth trajectory, as it pivots aggressively toward diversification and high-potential expansions The weight loss category bolstered by liraglutide injectables, generic semaglutide in Canada, and non-GLP-1 personalized kits retains strong momentum, contributing approximately 31% of total revenue in 2025 and projected to grow at 15-20% annually through 2030, down from prior 60%+ rates but still adding $150-250 million yearly through cross-selling and retention. Offsetting this moderation are ambitious new expansions: international markets, now accounting for an initial 5-10% of revenue but scaling to 20% by 2030 via Canada entry (projected 10% growth contribution in 2026 from generic semaglutide and Livewell acquisition) and Europe/UK via Zava (adding 8-12% incremental growth through telehealth in Germany, France, and Ireland); diagnostics and labs, launched in late 2025 with Quest Diagnostics partnership and YourBio Health's pain-free blood sampling tech, offering 50-120 biomarker tests across heart, metabolism, hormones, inflammation, and stress, expected to generate 12-18% of total revenue by 2027 and ramp to a standalone $1 billion segment by 2030. Preventive care and longevity initiatives, set for full 2026 rollout including peptide manufacturing (via acquired U.S. facility, contributing 10-15% to growth through vertical integration and supply control), coenzymes, GLP/GIP blends for performance and recovery, and a $325 million Grail investment enabling multi-cancer early detection blood tests (projected to add 8-12% revenue uplift starting in 2026 by enhancing subscription retention); and hormone health expansions like menopause/perimenopause and low testosterone treatments, already driving 10% of 2025 growth and poised for 20-25% annual expansion through data-driven personalization. Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) blood testing via the Galleri® test from GRAIL in the prior breakdown, even though it was bundled under longevity/preventive care. This is a significant new offering launched on February 4, 2026, providing subscribers (via the Labs platform) access to a simple annual blood test that screens for signals shared by over 50 types of cancer (including hard-to-detect ones like pancreatic, liver, ovarian, and lung) before symptoms appear. Hims & Hers is offering it at a discounted ~$700 (vs. retail $949), following their participation in GRAIL's $325 million private placement investment in late 2025, which strengthens the partnership and positions this as a core pillar of proactive/longevity care. This could help push Average growth to 30-35% vs 28.2%(my above revised projection). These levers, combined with a subscriber base exceeding 2.5 million (up 31% YoY) and AI-enhanced platform efficiency under new CTO leadership, support an upward revision to growth rates targeting 22-25% CAGR from 2026-2030 to meet the company's $6.5 billion revenue goal, far outpacing prior conservative estimates of mid-teens expansion. This high-growth scenario assumes execution on global scaling, regulatory navigation (FDA approvals for compounded alternatives), and margin recovery to 74-78% via vertical integration, positioning Hims & Hers as a comprehensive digital health ecosystem rather than a GLP-1-dependent player, with potential upside from emerging trends like peptide demand (up 144% in Google searches) and proactive wellness adoption. Not Financial Advice!
Mike273,519 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
BREAKING $PLTR $225 PT| BUY Rating 🚀🚀🚀 $1 Trillion Market Cap Target 🚨🚨🚨 Rosenblatt's analyst John McPeake Reiterated BUY Rating on Palantir and maintained $225 Price Target. We visited with the Palantir CFO David Glazer, Chief Architect Akshay Krishnaswamy, and Head of Strategic Initiatives Cary Li at their New York offices yesterday afternoon and held a call with a key Palantir implementation partner FoxTrot today. The two events combine to give us increased conviction in both our recently raised $225 target and our long term view that PLTR can join the $1T+ market cap club over a five-year period ($415 target). The AIP/Foundry offering is an arbiter and optimizer of multiple LLMs and MLs, and we see the likelihood of a working AIP/Ontology/Foundry alternative being assembled from piece parts or a future AI-conjured solution as unlikely over the investable time horizon. The call with Chris Willis of FoxTrot today suggests that business momentum for Palantir remains strong, with their business set to at least triple this year. With PLTR now down 24% YTD vs. the IGV down 13% and the NTM PE on the name down to ~1x their growth rate (80x), we are reiterating our Buy on PLTR and $225 price target."
Mike125,720 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
$GRAB AI SuperApp Valuation is STUPID👀 Video was from CNBC w/ Howard Marks, a major shareholder on $GRAB. $GRAB is now trading at 3.5 P/S FY 2026 revenue($6.2B) after $GOTO Mobility/Delivery Acquisition with $6B+ in cash and very little debt. Expected growth after 90-95% market share consolidation is 40%+ top and bottom line. This is when $GRAB introduces higher margin services as it has the monopoly in SEA or 700m population. For example, Dine-Out has 70-80% margin (20-30% commission), and this new services drove 1/3-1/4 of all new users growth. And Grab is only 6.5% penetration(700m), 14% thesis (5 billion people TAM). We are very EARLY! Long term shareholders should also expect expansion shortly after this consolidation. Most likely H2 2026 or H1 2027. You can hate Grab or call it a Chinese company based in Singapore as much as you want, but this valuation is stupid. This balance sheet and this kind of growth deserve a premium 8-10 P/S. I will be here to enjoy the ride when the market prices this SuperApp correctly.
Mike280,725 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад