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Mike Thomas

@MikeTFox5 • 21,366 subscribers

@Fox5DC Evening Meteorologist. Forecast & Graphics Production lead. Former forecasting expert @CommodityWX. DeMatha & Penn State Alumni

Shorts

Alright I've never seen this model handle a storm of this size, so not sure how well it will do...but for any who want an idea here is what the "Fox Model" is showing though 1pm Sunday (as far out as it goes). It does give you an idea of the scale of this system. Big time storm.

Alright I've never seen this model handle a storm of this size, so not sure how well it will do...but for any who want an idea here is what the "Fox Model" is showing though 1pm Sunday (as far out as it goes). It does give you an idea of the scale of this system. Big time storm.

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GRAF model now captures the full storm and is pretty similar to a lot of the other guidance I've seen out there. Snow starts late Saturday night (midnight-ish around DC) and then is heaviest Sunday morning. Pulls that sleet line up by lunchtime. Nasty winter storm front-to-back.

GRAF model now captures the full storm and is pretty similar to a lot of the other guidance I've seen out there. Snow starts late Saturday night (midnight-ish around DC) and then is heaviest Sunday morning. Pulls that sleet line up by lunchtime. Nasty winter storm front-to-back.

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Sorry for the delay! Here is the new 0z EURO model. Still a good "thumping" snow for most in the morning, with the sleet/freezing rain line fighting during the afternoon of Sunday. I'll put totals out from this run right below this. Heaviest northwest, less southeast!

Sorry for the delay! Here is the new 0z EURO model. Still a good "thumping" snow for most in the morning, with the sleet/freezing rain line fighting during the afternoon of Sunday. I'll put totals out from this run right below this. Heaviest northwest, less southeast!

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New GRAF run has come in. Showing you the same thing with the surface storm (white lines) and the 500mb upper low (black lines). Upper low steers the surface storm right into New Jersey on Sunday on this run. If that happens, showers are more likely in DC through the day Sunday.

New GRAF run has come in. Showing you the same thing with the surface storm (white lines) and the 500mb upper low (black lines). Upper low steers the surface storm right into New Jersey on Sunday on this run. If that happens, showers are more likely in DC through the day Sunday.

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It may have just missed us here in DC, but the Blizzard of 2026 will be remembered for a long time in the coastal Northeast! What a storm.

It may have just missed us here in DC, but the Blizzard of 2026 will be remembered for a long time in the coastal Northeast! What a storm.

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GRAF showing just how close the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast came to a major storm this weekend. Liquid forecasts in those heaviest offshore bands in the 1-2" range, so that's around a 10-20" snowstorm had it been farther west. Whether you wanted it or not, we did just miss a big one!

GRAF showing just how close the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast came to a major storm this weekend. Liquid forecasts in those heaviest offshore bands in the 1-2" range, so that's around a 10-20" snowstorm had it been farther west. Whether you wanted it or not, we did just miss a big one!

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Here's the new American model. Devil is still in the details between the EURO and the GFS. The GFS has the heaviest snows DC & North...while the European has it just south of DC. Which are you rooting for? (Totals from this run below this)

Here's the new American model. Devil is still in the details between the EURO and the GFS. The GFS has the heaviest snows DC & North...while the European has it just south of DC. Which are you rooting for? (Totals from this run below this)

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Remember what will exacerbate clean up efforts on the back side of this major snow-sleet-ice storm is the intense cold that comes in just behind it. Tuesday morning's record low in DC is 6°F which we have held onto since 1935 and we may very well break it. Bitter cold all week!

Remember what will exacerbate clean up efforts on the back side of this major snow-sleet-ice storm is the intense cold that comes in just behind it. Tuesday morning's record low in DC is 6°F which we have held onto since 1935 and we may very well break it. Bitter cold all week!

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You want a winter to remember? ❄️ How about four systems in 11 days back in 1966! Four systems in 11 days, 50 years ago! ☃️ DCA: Trace (Jan 22), 7.5" (Jan 26), 13.8" (Jan 29), 1.7" (Feb 1) IAD: 3.2" (Jan 22), 6.0" (Jan 26), 9.8" (Jan 29), 2.1" (Feb 1) BWI: 2.1" (Jan 22), 7.2" (Jan 26), 12.1" (Jan 29), 2.7" (Feb 1) What a wintry stretch! ❄️

You want a winter to remember? ❄️ How about four systems in 11 days back in 1966! Four systems in 11 days, 50 years ago! ☃️ DCA: Trace (Jan 22), 7.5" (Jan 26), 13.8" (Jan 29), 1.7" (Feb 1) IAD: 3.2" (Jan 22), 6.0" (Jan 26), 9.8" (Jan 29), 2.1" (Feb 1) BWI: 2.1" (Jan 22), 7.2" (Jan 26), 12.1" (Jan 29), 2.7" (Feb 1) What a wintry stretch! ❄️

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GRAF now goes out through 1pm Monday, so here is its initial solution for the upcoming system. A lot of mixing at first around DC, when it goes over to snow in DC it's probably "white rain" for a little bit prior to rates overcoming ground warmth for accumulation later Sunday. Totals below 🔽

GRAF now goes out through 1pm Monday, so here is its initial solution for the upcoming system. A lot of mixing at first around DC, when it goes over to snow in DC it's probably "white rain" for a little bit prior to rates overcoming ground warmth for accumulation later Sunday. Totals below 🔽

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Also if winter weather is what you want to see...watch out as early as THIS Sunday in our region. All depends on if moisture makes it in early enough in the morning...but if it does, cold air is entrenched enough that it may briefly start as snow/mix before going over to rain!

Also if winter weather is what you want to see...watch out as early as THIS Sunday in our region. All depends on if moisture makes it in early enough in the morning...but if it does, cold air is entrenched enough that it may briefly start as snow/mix before going over to rain!

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The heat dome ridge peaks overhead early tomorrow, then slowly begins to collapse. As it does so, this opens the door for thunderstorms fire up, as the suppressing subsidence forcing associated with the high pressure dome goes with it. This does not mean we cool off fast though, dangerous heat and humidity will continue through the weekend. Because of this, any storms that do fire, could easily become strong to severe. We are outlooked for severe weather on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in the DC region. Friday: Marginal risk. We're still under the capping influence of the ridge most of the day, so any storms that do fire should be isolated in nature. Most models keep the majority of the region sunny & dry again. Just can't rule out a few pop-up, especially later in the day if there is a complex in PA during the late afternoon, at it's outflow could come south and trigger storms. Saturday: Slight risk. We'll be in the sweet spot for ridge riders...strong thunderstorms riding the outskirts of the weakening heat some. Storms will likely fire over the mountains during the peak heat of the day (1-4pm) and then shift eastward as their outflow boundaries trigger additional storms. Won't wash out the 4th, but there is serious concern that storms will impact events downtown for at least a period of time Saturday evening. We will be here monitoring. Sunday: Ample energy ahead of a cold front which should put an end to this intense heatwave...but may do so with some intense storms. Will have to monitor for scattered severe storms, or possible squall line type system to come through. We're in an extended day 4 slight risk from SPC as things stand right now. GRAF only goes out through early Sunday morning at the moment, but I've got the latest run for you below. We'll keep you updated on timing and will be here all weekend watching radar for you as events go on downtown.

The heat dome ridge peaks overhead early tomorrow, then slowly begins to collapse. As it does so, this opens the door for thunderstorms fire up, as the suppressing subsidence forcing associated with the high pressure dome goes with it. This does not mean we cool off fast though, dangerous heat and humidity will continue through the weekend. Because of this, any storms that do fire, could easily become strong to severe. We are outlooked for severe weather on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in the DC region. Friday: Marginal risk. We're still under the capping influence of the ridge most of the day, so any storms that do fire should be isolated in nature. Most models keep the majority of the region sunny & dry again. Just can't rule out a few pop-up, especially later in the day if there is a complex in PA during the late afternoon, at it's outflow could come south and trigger storms. Saturday: Slight risk. We'll be in the sweet spot for ridge riders...strong thunderstorms riding the outskirts of the weakening heat some. Storms will likely fire over the mountains during the peak heat of the day (1-4pm) and then shift eastward as their outflow boundaries trigger additional storms. Won't wash out the 4th, but there is serious concern that storms will impact events downtown for at least a period of time Saturday evening. We will be here monitoring. Sunday: Ample energy ahead of a cold front which should put an end to this intense heatwave...but may do so with some intense storms. Will have to monitor for scattered severe storms, or possible squall line type system to come through. We're in an extended day 4 slight risk from SPC as things stand right now. GRAF only goes out through early Sunday morning at the moment, but I've got the latest run for you below. We'll keep you updated on timing and will be here all weekend watching radar for you as events go on downtown.

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Active Tuesday expected across the DC region. Warm front crosses during the early AM, then it's a race back to sun by the early PM. Strong humidity expected as well. Most active hours right round evening commute. Wind damage the big concern. Won't rule out an isolated tornado.

Active Tuesday expected across the DC region. Warm front crosses during the early AM, then it's a race back to sun by the early PM. Strong humidity expected as well. Most active hours right round evening commute. Wind damage the big concern. Won't rule out an isolated tornado.

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Early GRAF projections out far enough to capture the Sunday system. Starts as a bit of mix Saturday night then goes over to snow. It develops a nice band across DC and along the I-95 corridor in Maryland, putting down 1-3"+ by Sunday morning. Razors edge though! Pretty thin band!

Early GRAF projections out far enough to capture the Sunday system. Starts as a bit of mix Saturday night then goes over to snow. It develops a nice band across DC and along the I-95 corridor in Maryland, putting down 1-3"+ by Sunday morning. Razors edge though! Pretty thin band!

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A taste of early fall by tomorrow morning...but summer heat is not done with us yet. Feeling more like late August should by the middle of the week...then a bit of a heat wave could kick off September (low to middle 90s) with a weaker heat ridge centered just to our south!

A taste of early fall by tomorrow morning...but summer heat is not done with us yet. Feeling more like late August should by the middle of the week...then a bit of a heat wave could kick off September (low to middle 90s) with a weaker heat ridge centered just to our south!

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Wednesday is an interesting one in the DC region. Deepening wave passing over the DC region. Morning round of showers seems likely, but several models show afternoon destabilization and a round of severe storms. Many times this second line struggles though. Marginal risk for now.

Wednesday is an interesting one in the DC region. Deepening wave passing over the DC region. Morning round of showers seems likely, but several models show afternoon destabilization and a round of severe storms. Many times this second line struggles though. Marginal risk for now.

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Definitely a day where the full potential of the severe setup was (thankfully) not realized. That being said, yes, I do agree with everyone that the moderate risk was too high and the forecast was a bust relative to what a moderate risk should be. One more line between 8-10pm.

Definitely a day where the full potential of the severe setup was (thankfully) not realized. That being said, yes, I do agree with everyone that the moderate risk was too high and the forecast was a bust relative to what a moderate risk should be. One more line between 8-10pm.

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After nearly a full day of snow and sleet here in DC...the biggest and most impactful winter storm of the winter (so far!) is coming to a close...

After nearly a full day of snow and sleet here in DC...the biggest and most impactful winter storm of the winter (so far!) is coming to a close...

48,717 Aufrufe

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It may have just missed us here in DC, but the Blizzard of 2026 will be remembered for a long time in the coastal Northeast! What a storm.

It may have just missed us here in DC, but the Blizzard of 2026 will be remembered for a long time in the coastal Northeast! What a storm.

346,998 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

You want a winter to remember? ❄️ How about four systems in 11 days back in 1966! Four systems in 11 days, 50 years ago! ☃️ DCA: Trace (Jan 22), 7.5" (Jan 26), 13.8" (Jan 29), 1.7" (Feb 1) IAD: 3.2" (Jan 22), 6.0" (Jan 26), 9.8" (Jan 29), 2.1" (Feb 1) BWI: 2.1" (Jan 22), 7.2" (Jan 26), 12.1" (Jan 29), 2.7" (Feb 1) What a wintry stretch! ❄️

You want a winter to remember? ❄️ How about four systems in 11 days back in 1966! Four systems in 11 days, 50 years ago! ☃️ DCA: Trace (Jan 22), 7.5" (Jan 26), 13.8" (Jan 29), 1.7" (Feb 1) IAD: 3.2" (Jan 22), 6.0" (Jan 26), 9.8" (Jan 29), 2.1" (Feb 1) BWI: 2.1" (Jan 22), 7.2" (Jan 26), 12.1" (Jan 29), 2.7" (Feb 1) What a wintry stretch! ❄️

150,332 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Friday & Saturday are your "washout days" where rainfall is most widespread. Sunday & Monday should both have some drier periods to them, perhaps even some broken sunshine (especially later Sunday & Monday PM) but still expecting some scattered showers & storms both days.

Friday & Saturday are your "washout days" where rainfall is most widespread. Sunday & Monday should both have some drier periods to them, perhaps even some broken sunshine (especially later Sunday & Monday PM) but still expecting some scattered showers & storms both days.

47,798 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Remember in the winter when we talk about "overrunning" for snow events? Same process happening here in the days ahead. Warm, moist air streaming in above our heads, while high pressure to the north pushes down cool air at the surface. Result? Round after round of rain showers.

Remember in the winter when we talk about "overrunning" for snow events? Same process happening here in the days ahead. Warm, moist air streaming in above our heads, while high pressure to the north pushes down cool air at the surface. Result? Round after round of rain showers.

19,747 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Here's how the GRAF sees the TWO storms hitting the DC region on Tuesday-Wednesday this week. -Has snow starting 12-1pm in DC. -Note temperatures...likely above freezing at onset. We will "lose" some snow initially to ground melt. Recall the January storm, we had VERY cold temperatures leading up to it. Not quite this time. -I still worry the northern end of the I-81 corridor (Winchester up to Hagerstown zone) could underperform due to lighter precip and "mountain dry slotting" you can see this model, like the HRRR, trying to pick up on that a bit. -Snow exits around/after midnight in immediate DC area. We're then dry most of the first half of Wednesday. -Second system approached Wednesday afternoon. This one has much warmer mid-levels, and should be a moderate to heavy rain event for DC. -Cold may lag at the surface west of town. Some freezing rain may mix in, some icing is possible in higher elevations. -Rains will help wash away a lot of Tuesday's snowfall. This snow will NOT last as long as January's did. -Rain exits after midnight, Thursday & Friday are dry.

Here's how the GRAF sees the TWO storms hitting the DC region on Tuesday-Wednesday this week. -Has snow starting 12-1pm in DC. -Note temperatures...likely above freezing at onset. We will "lose" some snow initially to ground melt. Recall the January storm, we had VERY cold temperatures leading up to it. Not quite this time. -I still worry the northern end of the I-81 corridor (Winchester up to Hagerstown zone) could underperform due to lighter precip and "mountain dry slotting" you can see this model, like the HRRR, trying to pick up on that a bit. -Snow exits around/after midnight in immediate DC area. We're then dry most of the first half of Wednesday. -Second system approached Wednesday afternoon. This one has much warmer mid-levels, and should be a moderate to heavy rain event for DC. -Cold may lag at the surface west of town. Some freezing rain may mix in, some icing is possible in higher elevations. -Rains will help wash away a lot of Tuesday's snowfall. This snow will NOT last as long as January's did. -Rain exits after midnight, Thursday & Friday are dry.

40,971 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

DC could have their latest 100°F day in 44 years with a record breaking day tomorrow, before some cooler air comes off the Atlantic on Thursday night & Friday. We'll bubble back up for the weekend (hot...but not extreme) before another round of fall weather comes in on Tuesday!

DC could have their latest 100°F day in 44 years with a record breaking day tomorrow, before some cooler air comes off the Atlantic on Thursday night & Friday. We'll bubble back up for the weekend (hot...but not extreme) before another round of fall weather comes in on Tuesday!

23,442 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Haven't done something like this in years, but when BEYONCÉ comes to DC, it's a special occasion! 👑🐝 Enjoy the concert! :)

Haven't done something like this in years, but when BEYONCÉ comes to DC, it's a special occasion! 👑🐝 Enjoy the concert! :)

18,389 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

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