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Mike Thomas

@MikeTFox5 • 21,366 subscribers

@Fox5DC Evening Meteorologist. Forecast & Graphics Production lead. Former forecasting expert @CommodityWX. DeMatha & Penn State Alumni

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Alright I've never seen this model handle a storm of this size, so not sure how well it will do...but for any who want an idea here is what the "Fox Model" is showing though 1pm Sunday (as far out as it goes). It does give you an idea of the scale of this system. Big time storm.

Alright I've never seen this model handle a storm of this size, so not sure how well it will do...but for any who want an idea here is what the "Fox Model" is showing though 1pm Sunday (as far out as it goes). It does give you an idea of the scale of this system. Big time storm.

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GRAF model now captures the full storm and is pretty similar to a lot of the other guidance I've seen out there. Snow starts late Saturday night (midnight-ish around DC) and then is heaviest Sunday morning. Pulls that sleet line up by lunchtime. Nasty winter storm front-to-back.

GRAF model now captures the full storm and is pretty similar to a lot of the other guidance I've seen out there. Snow starts late Saturday night (midnight-ish around DC) and then is heaviest Sunday morning. Pulls that sleet line up by lunchtime. Nasty winter storm front-to-back.

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Sorry for the delay! Here is the new 0z EURO model. Still a good "thumping" snow for most in the morning, with the sleet/freezing rain line fighting during the afternoon of Sunday. I'll put totals out from this run right below this. Heaviest northwest, less southeast!

Sorry for the delay! Here is the new 0z EURO model. Still a good "thumping" snow for most in the morning, with the sleet/freezing rain line fighting during the afternoon of Sunday. I'll put totals out from this run right below this. Heaviest northwest, less southeast!

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It may have just missed us here in DC, but the Blizzard of 2026 will be remembered for a long time in the coastal Northeast! What a storm.

It may have just missed us here in DC, but the Blizzard of 2026 will be remembered for a long time in the coastal Northeast! What a storm.

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GRAF showing just how close the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast came to a major storm this weekend. Liquid forecasts in those heaviest offshore bands in the 1-2" range, so that's around a 10-20" snowstorm had it been farther west. Whether you wanted it or not, we did just miss a big one!

GRAF showing just how close the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast came to a major storm this weekend. Liquid forecasts in those heaviest offshore bands in the 1-2" range, so that's around a 10-20" snowstorm had it been farther west. Whether you wanted it or not, we did just miss a big one!

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Here's the new American model. Devil is still in the details between the EURO and the GFS. The GFS has the heaviest snows DC & North...while the European has it just south of DC. Which are you rooting for? (Totals from this run below this)

Here's the new American model. Devil is still in the details between the EURO and the GFS. The GFS has the heaviest snows DC & North...while the European has it just south of DC. Which are you rooting for? (Totals from this run below this)

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You want a winter to remember? ❄️ How about four systems in 11 days back in 1966! Four systems in 11 days, 50 years ago! ☃️ DCA: Trace (Jan 22), 7.5" (Jan 26), 13.8" (Jan 29), 1.7" (Feb 1) IAD: 3.2" (Jan 22), 6.0" (Jan 26), 9.8" (Jan 29), 2.1" (Feb 1) BWI: 2.1" (Jan 22), 7.2" (Jan 26), 12.1" (Jan 29), 2.7" (Feb 1) What a wintry stretch! ❄️

You want a winter to remember? ❄️ How about four systems in 11 days back in 1966! Four systems in 11 days, 50 years ago! ☃️ DCA: Trace (Jan 22), 7.5" (Jan 26), 13.8" (Jan 29), 1.7" (Feb 1) IAD: 3.2" (Jan 22), 6.0" (Jan 26), 9.8" (Jan 29), 2.1" (Feb 1) BWI: 2.1" (Jan 22), 7.2" (Jan 26), 12.1" (Jan 29), 2.7" (Feb 1) What a wintry stretch! ❄️

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GRAF now goes out through 1pm Monday, so here is its initial solution for the upcoming system. A lot of mixing at first around DC, when it goes over to snow in DC it's probably "white rain" for a little bit prior to rates overcoming ground warmth for accumulation later Sunday. Totals below 🔽

GRAF now goes out through 1pm Monday, so here is its initial solution for the upcoming system. A lot of mixing at first around DC, when it goes over to snow in DC it's probably "white rain" for a little bit prior to rates overcoming ground warmth for accumulation later Sunday. Totals below 🔽

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Wednesday is an interesting one in the DC region. Deepening wave passing over the DC region. Morning round of showers seems likely, but several models show afternoon destabilization and a round of severe storms. Many times this second line struggles though. Marginal risk for now.

Wednesday is an interesting one in the DC region. Deepening wave passing over the DC region. Morning round of showers seems likely, but several models show afternoon destabilization and a round of severe storms. Many times this second line struggles though. Marginal risk for now.

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Now THAT'S what you call an arctic air outbreak. Yikes!

Now THAT'S what you call an arctic air outbreak. Yikes!

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Also if winter weather is what you want to see...watch out as early as THIS Sunday in our region. All depends on if moisture makes it in early enough in the morning...but if it does, cold air is entrenched enough that it may briefly start as snow/mix before going over to rain!

Also if winter weather is what you want to see...watch out as early as THIS Sunday in our region. All depends on if moisture makes it in early enough in the morning...but if it does, cold air is entrenched enough that it may briefly start as snow/mix before going over to rain!

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Definitely a day where the full potential of the severe setup was (thankfully) not realized. That being said, yes, I do agree with everyone that the moderate risk was too high and the forecast was a bust relative to what a moderate risk should be. One more line between 8-10pm.

Definitely a day where the full potential of the severe setup was (thankfully) not realized. That being said, yes, I do agree with everyone that the moderate risk was too high and the forecast was a bust relative to what a moderate risk should be. One more line between 8-10pm.

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Early GRAF projections out far enough to capture the Sunday system. Starts as a bit of mix Saturday night then goes over to snow. It develops a nice band across DC and along the I-95 corridor in Maryland, putting down 1-3"+ by Sunday morning. Razors edge though! Pretty thin band!

Early GRAF projections out far enough to capture the Sunday system. Starts as a bit of mix Saturday night then goes over to snow. It develops a nice band across DC and along the I-95 corridor in Maryland, putting down 1-3"+ by Sunday morning. Razors edge though! Pretty thin band!

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WATCH: Can clearly see the polar origins of the upcoming cold outbreak coming straight out of the Arctic Circle. Subfreezing temperatures could reach all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. A true to name arctic blast early this weekend into early next week!

WATCH: Can clearly see the polar origins of the upcoming cold outbreak coming straight out of the Arctic Circle. Subfreezing temperatures could reach all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. A true to name arctic blast early this weekend into early next week!

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After nearly a full day of snow and sleet here in DC...the biggest and most impactful winter storm of the winter (so far!) is coming to a close...

After nearly a full day of snow and sleet here in DC...the biggest and most impactful winter storm of the winter (so far!) is coming to a close...

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Changed it over to the high-resolution (3km) GRAF simulations for the remainder of the night here. Here is how much more snow the model os showing for the remainder of the night (through 6am Monday). Based on ground reports certainly seems like those outside the banding are coming in on the lower end. So far 0.56" of liquid reported at DCA today, that would have been 5.6" of snow under ideal conditions today had this been all snow!

Changed it over to the high-resolution (3km) GRAF simulations for the remainder of the night here. Here is how much more snow the model os showing for the remainder of the night (through 6am Monday). Based on ground reports certainly seems like those outside the banding are coming in on the lower end. So far 0.56" of liquid reported at DCA today, that would have been 5.6" of snow under ideal conditions today had this been all snow!

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Hot off the presses, brand new high-resolution GRAF fresh into the weather center. Trying to pick up on some of the colder temperatures tonight around the region. Gets the first flakes into DC between 3-4am, with the worst of snow/mix around the Beltway between 4-7am before a change over to all rain. Northwest holds onto snow/mix into the 9-10am window for the most part. Model did go up with totals a bit! Check tweet below! (1/2)

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It may have just missed us here in DC, but the Blizzard of 2026 will be remembered for a long time in the coastal Northeast! What a storm.

It may have just missed us here in DC, but the Blizzard of 2026 will be remembered for a long time in the coastal Northeast! What a storm.

346,998 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

You want a winter to remember? ❄️ How about four systems in 11 days back in 1966! Four systems in 11 days, 50 years ago! ☃️ DCA: Trace (Jan 22), 7.5" (Jan 26), 13.8" (Jan 29), 1.7" (Feb 1) IAD: 3.2" (Jan 22), 6.0" (Jan 26), 9.8" (Jan 29), 2.1" (Feb 1) BWI: 2.1" (Jan 22), 7.2" (Jan 26), 12.1" (Jan 29), 2.7" (Feb 1) What a wintry stretch! ❄️

You want a winter to remember? ❄️ How about four systems in 11 days back in 1966! Four systems in 11 days, 50 years ago! ☃️ DCA: Trace (Jan 22), 7.5" (Jan 26), 13.8" (Jan 29), 1.7" (Feb 1) IAD: 3.2" (Jan 22), 6.0" (Jan 26), 9.8" (Jan 29), 2.1" (Feb 1) BWI: 2.1" (Jan 22), 7.2" (Jan 26), 12.1" (Jan 29), 2.7" (Feb 1) What a wintry stretch! ❄️

150,282 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Remember in the winter when we talk about "overrunning" for snow events? Same process happening here in the days ahead. Warm, moist air streaming in above our heads, while high pressure to the north pushes down cool air at the surface. Result? Round after round of rain showers.

Remember in the winter when we talk about "overrunning" for snow events? Same process happening here in the days ahead. Warm, moist air streaming in above our heads, while high pressure to the north pushes down cool air at the surface. Result? Round after round of rain showers.

19,747 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

Here's how the GRAF sees the TWO storms hitting the DC region on Tuesday-Wednesday this week. -Has snow starting 12-1pm in DC. -Note temperatures...likely above freezing at onset. We will "lose" some snow initially to ground melt. Recall the January storm, we had VERY cold temperatures leading up to it. Not quite this time. -I still worry the northern end of the I-81 corridor (Winchester up to Hagerstown zone) could underperform due to lighter precip and "mountain dry slotting" you can see this model, like the HRRR, trying to pick up on that a bit. -Snow exits around/after midnight in immediate DC area. We're then dry most of the first half of Wednesday. -Second system approached Wednesday afternoon. This one has much warmer mid-levels, and should be a moderate to heavy rain event for DC. -Cold may lag at the surface west of town. Some freezing rain may mix in, some icing is possible in higher elevations. -Rains will help wash away a lot of Tuesday's snowfall. This snow will NOT last as long as January's did. -Rain exits after midnight, Thursday & Friday are dry.

Here's how the GRAF sees the TWO storms hitting the DC region on Tuesday-Wednesday this week. -Has snow starting 12-1pm in DC. -Note temperatures...likely above freezing at onset. We will "lose" some snow initially to ground melt. Recall the January storm, we had VERY cold temperatures leading up to it. Not quite this time. -I still worry the northern end of the I-81 corridor (Winchester up to Hagerstown zone) could underperform due to lighter precip and "mountain dry slotting" you can see this model, like the HRRR, trying to pick up on that a bit. -Snow exits around/after midnight in immediate DC area. We're then dry most of the first half of Wednesday. -Second system approached Wednesday afternoon. This one has much warmer mid-levels, and should be a moderate to heavy rain event for DC. -Cold may lag at the surface west of town. Some freezing rain may mix in, some icing is possible in higher elevations. -Rains will help wash away a lot of Tuesday's snowfall. This snow will NOT last as long as January's did. -Rain exits after midnight, Thursday & Friday are dry.

40,971 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

DC could have their latest 100°F day in 44 years with a record breaking day tomorrow, before some cooler air comes off the Atlantic on Thursday night & Friday. We'll bubble back up for the weekend (hot...but not extreme) before another round of fall weather comes in on Tuesday!

DC could have their latest 100°F day in 44 years with a record breaking day tomorrow, before some cooler air comes off the Atlantic on Thursday night & Friday. We'll bubble back up for the weekend (hot...but not extreme) before another round of fall weather comes in on Tuesday!

23,435 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

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