Milk Road
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Jim Bianco: the market has been wrong about the Strait of Hormuz for 90 days straight. Everyone keeps assuming this is temporary - and that assumption is driving reckless inventory drawdowns globally. "The market expects this to be a temporary situation, no more than 30 to 60 more days." "I don't think the Iranians have the incentive to cut a deal like everybody else thinks." FT Jim Bianco John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth Milk Road Macro.
Milk Road124,324 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen
Raoul Pal: $BTC dropping from $126K to $60K is NOT a bear market. "It's a nasty correction in a bull market. I've been in crypto since 2013. I've seen many corrections, non-bear markets of 50% in Bitcoin." "But people forget this every time." Solana dropped 80% in 2021 - during a bull market with liquidity flowing - before its massive run. FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road141,688 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen
David Hoffman: "The decision to sell my $ETH came from seeing a difficulty in the Ethereum network being market competitive." ETH went from 90%+ smart contract dominance to 60%, and that gap is the difference between "ETH is money" and "ETH is just another L1 asset." What's missing is a killer instinct at the top (the EF). FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth David Hoffman Camila Russo The Defiant.
Milk Road51,643 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
Raoul Pal: The "economic singularity" is when the system can no longer keep up with the speed of technology. We're used to a max population of 9 billion humans. But "we can go to 18 billion, 100 billion, a trillion people. We can make infinite agents." Silicon is the second most common thing on Earth. We're putting electricity through it and producing intelligence at "six orders of magnitude faster" than a human neuron. A million times the speed. FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road157,707 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen
Raoul Pal: The AI race cannot be stopped. Not by governments, not by markets, not by anyone. "There is no world in which you can allow one superpower to have AGI." Game theory means neither the US nor China can slow down. And if OpenAI blew up tomorrow? The US would auction off its assets in seconds to Microsoft and Google. "The game is so big that nobody will stop." FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road123,902 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen
![Raoul Pal: "Price keeps going up because of debasement (the price of a stock), but earnings grow with GDP growth." "Unless you happen to be in the intelligence business, and then your f*cking earnings are going vertical." "Don't forget - the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time." "It's [been] three years! It's gone from zero to a hundred billion dollars in revenues." And it did most of it last year (from ~$10B to ~$100B). Nothing has ever come close. FT Raoul Pal Julien Bittel, CFA Real Vision.](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2058684030279991375/amplify_video_thumb/2058683974348922880/img/NBBi1cPmVPIvj7g7.jpg)
Raoul Pal: "Price keeps going up because of debasement (the price of a stock), but earnings grow with GDP growth." "Unless you happen to be in the intelligence business, and then your f*cking earnings are going vertical." "Don't forget - the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time." "It's [been] three years! It's gone from zero to a hundred billion dollars in revenues." And it did most of it last year (from ~$10B to ~$100B). Nothing has ever come close. FT Raoul Pal Julien Bittel, CFA Real Vision.
Milk Road231,099 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen
Arthur Hayes: the thing that ends this bull market isn't a recession or a Fed pivot... It's AOC. "I think she is going to be the Democratic nominee for 2028. And I think investors are going to freak the f*ck out." If she starts polling well, investors holding AI stocks at 100x revenue will have to start asking what a 50% AI tax will do to valuations. "And once you start asking questions about the future like that - it's over." FT Arthur Hayes Illia (root.near) (🇺🇦, ⋈) Andy Robbie Klages The Rollup.
Milk Road166,732 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen
Raoul Pal: "Just own the f*cking token... It's so obvious. It's the big trade." The largest infrastructure investment in history is about to happen. Data center buildout will employ millions in construction and services. "That money gets saved, spent or invested and people will come to the casino as they always do in the crypto market." The layer 1 trade is so simple. FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road99,315 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen
Raoul Pal: Retail didn't abandon crypto. They lost their stake and went to a different casino (AI). They're in their 20s, can't afford a house, working 3 jobs, and looking for a way out. They'll be back the moment crypto outperforms. We need to stop painting their rationality as 'disloyalty.' FT Raoul Pal LG DOUCET
Milk Road123,635 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen
Raoul Pal: "By 2030, the entire economic system has changed." AI will rewrite the GDP formula... The old formula: GDP = population growth (humans) + productivity growth (human output) + debt growth The new formula: GDP = population growth (humans + robots + agents) + productivity growth (energy density + compute efficiency) + debt growth. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision
Milk Road223,886 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen
Bitwise CEO: this is the most bullish moment in Bitwise's entire 7-8 year history in crypto. A major U.S. bank recently told Bitwise they were planning to go "from zero to 500 miles an hour on crypto." Another bank gave its divisions 100 days to map out their crypto roadmap. "I don't know that a bank has ever gone from zero to 500 miles an hour on anything." 2026 is absolutely a new chapter - every corporate and financial institution will be in the space within 12 months. FT Hunter Horsley MR SHIFT 🦁 Bitwise.
Milk Road34,540 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen
Raoul Pal: "If we're going from $2.5T to $100T, why the f*ck would you sell anything??" The entire financial system is rebuilding on crypto rails, agents are everywhere, robots are incoming, the CLARITY Act is crossing the line... "And you're going to sell it because Raoul and Julian think the liquidity cycle is going to slow down for a bit?" "F*cking bananas." We're at the fastest acceleration of technology in all of human history. Trying to time it is stupid FT Raoul Pal Julien Bittel, CFA Real Vision.
Milk Road120,033 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen
Raoul Pal: AI costs $200/month. Feeding a human costs $10K/year just to get to human-level compute. "I'm paying 200 bucks a month for Claude" "I get PHD-level intelligence on every single subject know to humanity." The cost to produce this intelligence is collapsing. And it's already "more capable than any human could ever be." This changes everything about labor, value, and what skills even mean. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision
Milk Road142,731 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen
John Gillen: Tom Lee posted something this weekend that barely got attention - and it should have. The inverse correlation between Ethereum and oil prices has never been this high in history. As oil goes up, $ETH goes down, moving in near lockstep. "It's not that capital is not going to other places. One of the other places it seems like it would have been going would be to crypto digital assets, Ethereum." It's a tug of war over capital - and right now, the energy crisis is winning. FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth LG DOUCET.
Milk Road125,146 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen
Raoul Pal on his recent Zcash allocation: "In the world of store-of-value there is only one - or there was only one, really." "But now we've got another one which is a sub-section of that." "Privacy, in the world, has value." "I think people will understand that more, so therefore, it's a very easy trade. It's $BTC w/ privacy." FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road41,915 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen
Raoul Pal: No major financial institution will use public blockchains at scale without privacy. That's the blocker. Ethereum and Sui are both now building permissioned privacy into their base chains. Privacy that regulators can unlock when needed, but nobody else can see. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision Jamie Coutts CMT
Milk Road173,979 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen
Raoul Pal: How do you actually value Ethereum? Invert it. "Say, ok, I'm going to turn the switch off - that's all stablecoins, all of DeFi, every layer two, every NFT, all going to zero..." The total loss? "That's the value of Ethereum." FT Raoul Pal Real Vision Jamie Coutts CMT
Milk Road191,327 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Raoul Pal: "Buy the f*cking dip when you can. If you don't do that simple thing, you do not compound." The big 50% sell-offs aren't things to fear - they're the moments you should be saving cash specifically for. Crypto is a $2.5T asset class today heading to $100T by 2034. "That would be the largest wealth accumulation event in all of human history." FT Raoul Pal Real Vision.
Milk Road62,855 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen
Raoul Pal: "The probability of a super cycle is getting reasonably high now." "We thought that after this cycle would be a super cycle. And now we're kind of starting to think... maybe we don't get a full liquidity down cycle here." "Sure, we'll get market corrections, we'll get sideways trends..." "But really speaking - we could see an extended, extremely hot business cycle that runs." The only thing that kills it? The bond market saying no. That's why Bessent is in Japan and China right now trying to stop exactly that. FT Raoul Pal Julien Bittel, CFA Real Vision.
Milk Road67,450 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen
Mark Newton: the tech rally has been "far choppier" than people expected - and Mag 7 hasn't kept pace with the rest of tech. Mark is watching for "a 3-5% correction after our run up." Nothing devastating. Just normal digestion. The bigger tell? Semis have had a lot of
Milk Road93,880 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat