Milk Road
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Jim Bianco: the market has been wrong about the Strait of Hormuz for 90 days straight. Everyone keeps assuming this is temporary - and that assumption is driving reckless inventory drawdowns globally. "The market expects this to be a temporary situation, no more than 30 to 60 more days." "I don't think the Iranians have the incentive to cut a deal like everybody else thinks." FT Jim Bianco John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth Milk Road Macro.
Milk Road124,324 次观看 • 3 天前
Raoul Pal: $BTC dropping from $126K to $60K is NOT a bear market. "It's a nasty correction in a bull market. I've been in crypto since 2013. I've seen many corrections, non-bear markets of 50% in Bitcoin." "But people forget this every time." Solana dropped 80% in 2021 - during a bull market with liquidity flowing - before its massive run. FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road141,688 次观看 • 7 天前
David Hoffman: "The decision to sell my $ETH came from seeing a difficulty in the Ethereum network being market competitive." ETH went from 90%+ smart contract dominance to 60%, and that gap is the difference between "ETH is money" and "ETH is just another L1 asset." What's missing is a killer instinct at the top (the EF). FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth David Hoffman Camila Russo The Defiant.
Milk Road51,643 次观看 • 2 天前
Raoul Pal: The "economic singularity" is when the system can no longer keep up with the speed of technology. We're used to a max population of 9 billion humans. But "we can go to 18 billion, 100 billion, a trillion people. We can make infinite agents." Silicon is the second most common thing on Earth. We're putting electricity through it and producing intelligence at "six orders of magnitude faster" than a human neuron. A million times the speed. FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road157,707 次观看 • 8 天前
Jim Bianco: When the oil shock hits, America won't see empty gas stations - but it will still feel the pain. Asia gets hit first (Japan is already running on strategic reserves), then Europe, then the US. "You'll never go to a gas station and it'll have a sign that says out of gas, but you won't like the price you will see." Oil is priced globally. A shortage anywhere raises prices everywhere. FT Jim Bianco John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth Milk Road Macro.
Milk Road57,404 次观看 • 3 天前
Raoul Pal: The AI race cannot be stopped. Not by governments, not by markets, not by anyone. "There is no world in which you can allow one superpower to have AGI." Game theory means neither the US nor China can slow down. And if OpenAI blew up tomorrow? The US would auction off its assets in seconds to Microsoft and Google. "The game is so big that nobody will stop." FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road123,902 次观看 • 7 天前
![Raoul Pal: "Price keeps going up because of debasement (the price of a stock), but earnings grow with GDP growth." "Unless you happen to be in the intelligence business, and then your f*cking earnings are going vertical." "Don't forget - the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time." "It's [been] three years! It's gone from zero to a hundred billion dollars in revenues." And it did most of it last year (from ~$10B to ~$100B). Nothing has ever come close. FT Raoul Pal Julien Bittel, CFA Real Vision.](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2058684030279991375/amplify_video_thumb/2058683974348922880/img/NBBi1cPmVPIvj7g7.jpg)
Raoul Pal: "Price keeps going up because of debasement (the price of a stock), but earnings grow with GDP growth." "Unless you happen to be in the intelligence business, and then your f*cking earnings are going vertical." "Don't forget - the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time." "It's [been] three years! It's gone from zero to a hundred billion dollars in revenues." And it did most of it last year (from ~$10B to ~$100B). Nothing has ever come close. FT Raoul Pal Julien Bittel, CFA Real Vision.
Milk Road231,099 次观看 • 14 天前
James Seyffart: Many people buying Bitcoin ETFs aren't trading in and out - they're parking 2-5% in a retirement account and walking away. "Bitcoin goes through 50-70% drawdowns every four years. A lot of times 50% plus intra period." Those people came in knowing the risk. The ones selling right now are mostly hedge funds running the basis trade - not long-term believers. FT James Seyffart LG DOUCET.
Milk Road29,517 次观看 • 1 天前
Jim Bianco: The Iran deal has been labelled "done" six or seven times so far, but it keeps falling apart. Global inventories are being aggressively drawn down to keep oil prices stable, and we'll hit operational minimums. "We can't run every inventory to zero and then we're going to have to have real demand destruction." That could arrive in as little as 30 days. FT Jim Bianco John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth Milk Road Macro.
Milk Road49,211 次观看 • 3 天前
Arthur Hayes: the thing that ends this bull market isn't a recession or a Fed pivot... It's AOC. "I think she is going to be the Democratic nominee for 2028. And I think investors are going to freak the f*ck out." If she starts polling well, investors holding AI stocks at 100x revenue will have to start asking what a 50% AI tax will do to valuations. "And once you start asking questions about the future like that - it's over." FT Arthur Hayes Illia (root.near) (🇺🇦, ⋈) Andy Robbie Klages The Rollup.
Milk Road166,854 次观看 • 12 天前
Raoul Pal: "Just own the f*cking token... It's so obvious. It's the big trade." The largest infrastructure investment in history is about to happen. Data center buildout will employ millions in construction and services. "That money gets saved, spent or invested and people will come to the casino as they always do in the crypto market." The layer 1 trade is so simple. FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road99,315 次观看 • 8 天前
Raoul Pal: Retail didn't abandon crypto. They lost their stake and went to a different casino (AI). They're in their 20s, can't afford a house, working 3 jobs, and looking for a way out. They'll be back the moment crypto outperforms. We need to stop painting their rationality as 'disloyalty.' FT Raoul Pal LG DOUCET
Milk Road123,635 次观看 • 12 天前
Raoul Pal: "By 2030, the entire economic system has changed." AI will rewrite the GDP formula... The old formula: GDP = population growth (humans) + productivity growth (human output) + debt growth The new formula: GDP = population growth (humans + robots + agents) + productivity growth (energy density + compute efficiency) + debt growth. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision
Milk Road223,886 次观看 • 22 天前
Bitwise CEO: this is the most bullish moment in Bitwise's entire 7-8 year history in crypto. A major U.S. bank recently told Bitwise they were planning to go "from zero to 500 miles an hour on crypto." Another bank gave its divisions 100 days to map out their crypto roadmap. "I don't know that a bank has ever gone from zero to 500 miles an hour on anything." 2026 is absolutely a new chapter - every corporate and financial institution will be in the space within 12 months. FT Hunter Horsley MR SHIFT 🦁 Bitwise.
Milk Road34,540 次观看 • 3 天前
Raoul Pal: "If we're going from $2.5T to $100T, why the f*ck would you sell anything??" The entire financial system is rebuilding on crypto rails, agents are everywhere, robots are incoming, the CLARITY Act is crossing the line... "And you're going to sell it because Raoul and Julian think the liquidity cycle is going to slow down for a bit?" "F*cking bananas." We're at the fastest acceleration of technology in all of human history. Trying to time it is stupid FT Raoul Pal Julien Bittel, CFA Real Vision.
Milk Road120,033 次观看 • 13 天前
Raoul Pal: AI costs $200/month. Feeding a human costs $10K/year just to get to human-level compute. "I'm paying 200 bucks a month for Claude" "I get PHD-level intelligence on every single subject know to humanity." The cost to produce this intelligence is collapsing. And it's already "more capable than any human could ever be." This changes everything about labor, value, and what skills even mean. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision
Milk Road142,785 次观看 • 21 天前
John Gillen: Tom Lee posted something this weekend that barely got attention - and it should have. The inverse correlation between Ethereum and oil prices has never been this high in history. As oil goes up, $ETH goes down, moving in near lockstep. "It's not that capital is not going to other places. One of the other places it seems like it would have been going would be to crypto digital assets, Ethereum." It's a tug of war over capital - and right now, the energy crisis is winning. FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth LG DOUCET.
Milk Road125,146 次观看 • 19 天前
Raoul Pal on his recent Zcash allocation: "In the world of store-of-value there is only one - or there was only one, really." "But now we've got another one which is a sub-section of that." "Privacy, in the world, has value." "I think people will understand that more, so therefore, it's a very easy trade. It's $BTC w/ privacy." FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road41,915 次观看 • 6 天前
Raoul Pal: No major financial institution will use public blockchains at scale without privacy. That's the blocker. Ethereum and Sui are both now building permissioned privacy into their base chains. Privacy that regulators can unlock when needed, but nobody else can see. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision Jamie Coutts CMT
Milk Road173,979 次观看 • 28 天前
Raoul Pal: How do you actually value Ethereum? Invert it. "Say, ok, I'm going to turn the switch off - that's all stablecoins, all of DeFi, every layer two, every NFT, all going to zero..." The total loss? "That's the value of Ethereum." FT Raoul Pal Real Vision Jamie Coutts CMT
Milk Road191,327 次观看 • 1 个月前