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فيصل ابراهيم الشمري

@Mr_Alshammeri45,555 subscribers

كاتب ومحلل سياسي مختص في الشأن الأمريكي. العربية نت، مركز سمت للدراسات، صحيفة مكة، عرب نيوز. Political analyst and columnist Arab News, Makkah News Paper.

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My latest article So the Revolutionary Guard Does Not Emerge Victorious from a Losing War By Faisal Alshammeri The most important question in Iran today is not when the war will end, but what kind of regime will emerge afterward. Wars do not only reshape external balances of power; they expose internal fragility, redistribute authority among state institutions, and push the most organized actors to the center of decision-making. In Iran’s case, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears best positioned to fill the vacuum created by war. Not because Iran will necessarily become an openly military regime, but because real authority is likely to shift further from the republic’s religious and political institutions toward its security apparatus. That is the real danger of the postwar phase: Iran may emerge weaker externally while the IRGC becomes stronger internally. Since 1979, the Islamic Republic has rested on a delicate balance between three sources of legitimacy: religious authority embodied by the Supreme Leader, republican institutions that provide electoral legitimacy, and the revolutionary-security legitimacy represented by the IRGC. In times of crisis and war, however, that balance narrows. Survival, deterrence, and internal control become priorities, empowering the institution that possesses weapons, intelligence, organization, and coercive capacity. This transformation did not begin with war, but war accelerates it. Long before the conflict, Iran was already suffering from economic decline, social frustration, and a growing crisis of legitimacy. The clerical establishment retained symbolic authority, but its ability to command consensus weakened significantly. In such moments, regimes rely less on persuasion and more on security. The result may not be a completely new system, but a hybrid one: a familiar religious and constitutional façade masking a more openly security-driven state. The language of revolution, resistance, and elections may remain, yet governance itself becomes increasingly militarized. The deeper problem is that the IRGC is not merely a military institution. It is an ideological, economic, and intelligence empire embedded across the state. Its influence extends from foreign policy and regional proxy networks to domestic security and major sectors of the economy. For decades, it functioned as a “state within a state.” After war, it could become the state itself. Yet militarization does not guarantee stability. Security institutions can preserve regimes, but they rarely regenerate legitimacy. A state governed primarily through coercion gradually loses its political flexibility and its capacity to rebuild trust with society. That is why weakening Iran without dismantling the IRGC’s dominance may produce a more dangerous outcome: a regime less ideological in rhetoric, but more militarized in practice, more repressive at home, and less capable of reform. The real question, therefore, is not simply whether Iran will survive the war, but whether the Revolutionary Guard will transform national exhaustion into complete control over the state.

فيصل ابراهيم الشمري

40,522 次观看 • 2 个月前

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Tulsi #Gabbard’s Referral: A Whisper Turned Into a Legal Thunderclap By Faisal Al-Shammeri Published in صحيفة الوئام In Washington, silence is rarely neutral. It is strategy, shield, and signal. So when Tulsi Gabbard, now Director of National Intelligence, walked into the White House briefing room on July 23 and accused former President Obama and his senior team of orchestrating a political operation disguised as national security — and then submitted a criminal referral — the response from the accused was deafening in its absence. No denials. No legal rebuttals. Not even a token media counter-narrative. Just silence. That silence tells us two things: First, the accusations hit close to home. Second, Washington still believes that what can’t be refuted can be ignored — and outlasted. The Referral That Broke the Ritual Gabbard didn’t simply stir the pot. She overturned the table. Her referral to the DOJ, backed by over 100 pages of declassified intelligence and congressional memos, targets the most protected names of the Obama era: Obama himself, Brennan, Clapper, Comey, Rice, Lynch, and others. She alleges not misjudgment, but manipulation — a deliberate distortion of intelligence to sabotage Trump’s 2016 campaign and then undercut his presidency. The so-called “Russia hoax,” she argues, wasn’t a theory — it was a project. Within hours, the DOJ under Attorney General Pam Bondi announced the formation of a special strike force to assess the claims. In a town where delays are the default, that’s a statement in itself Gabbard’s Real Message: The Gloves Are Off This is not just about reopening #Russiagate. Gabbard’s move signals a quiet rebellion within the national security state — and perhaps a reckoning long overdue. She’s not speaking as a fringe voice from outside the establishment. She is the establishment. And that’s what makes this referral dangerous to its targets. Her timing is surgical. In an election year. At a moment when faith in institutions is crumbling. And in the same week Trump launched yet another wave of AI-generated propaganda portraying Obama in handcuffs. Coincidence? No. It’s coordinated pressure. Gabbard provided the documents. Trump provided the megaphone. Obama Responds — Too Late, Too Thin Obama finally broke his silence, calling the accusations “outrageous.” But his words came days late — and lacked substance. No data, no refutation, no context. Just dismissal. And that, perhaps more than anything, reinforces Gabbard’s point: the expectation of impunity. That legacy names don’t answer questions — they brush them aside. Accountability or Amnesia? If the DOJ moves forward, we’re looking at the most significant legal challenge to a former Democratic president’s inner circle since Watergate. If it doesn’t, the argument that America has a two-tier justice system — one for the powerful, one for the rest — will gain dangerous traction. This is the real test: not of guilt, but of whether America still has the political courage to investigate its own protectors. Conclusion: Washington’s Old Games, New Stakes Gabbard has cracked the silence that once protected the most untouchable names in American politics. The question now is whether that crack widens — or is quickly sealed. The documents are on the table. The DOJ has its marching orders. The public is watching. And Washington? For now, it’s holding its breath.

فيصل ابراهيم الشمري

24,613 次观看 • 1 年前

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📰📰 حين يوقّع البعض دون أن يقرأ، ويقرأ البعض ما لم يُكتب: المفارقة بين الرئيس الصربي و #الملك_فهد في عالم السياسة، التوقيع ليس مجرد حركة قلم، بل موقف، وقرار، وتاريخ. وبين من يوقع دون أن يقرأ، ومن يقرأ حتى ما لم يُكتب، تظهر الفروقات التي تصنع القادة وتكشف حدودهم. أحد أبرز الأمثلة الحديثة جاء من صربيا، حين جلس رئيسها ألكسندر فوتشيتش أمام الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب في حفل توقيع ما عُرف بـ”اتفاقيات البيت الأبيض عام 2020، المتعلقة بالتطبيع الاقتصادي بين صربيا وكوسوفو. جلس الرجل على طاولة بيضاء وثيره، ووقع وثيقة وُضعت أمامه دون أن يدقق فيها علنًا. لتمر اللحظات، ويكتشف لاحقًا أن الورقة تتضمن بندًا حول نقل السفارة الصربية إلى القدس، وهو ما لم يكن في حساباته ولا في تصريحاته السابقة. أظهرت الكاميرات ارتباكه، ونقلت ملامحه دهشة من وقع في فخ دبلوماسي دون أن يدرِ. في المقابل، يحتفظ التاريخ بمشهد معاكس تمامًا، بطله الملك فهد بن عبدالعزيز – الرجل الذي لم يكن يوقّع فقط، بل كان يُراجع، ويُراجع، ويُعيد تشكيل الكلمات إن لزم الأمر. في زيارة للولايات المتحدة، أراد الرئيس الأميركي الأسبق رونالد ريغان أن يُلقي خطابًا أمام الملك فهد. ووفقًا للبروتوكول الأميركي، لم يكن مسموحًا للضيوف بالحصول على نسخة مسبقة من الخطاب. لكن الملك فهد طلب من سفيره ، الأمير بندر بن سلطان، أن يطلع على النسخة العربية، وكان المترجم الأميركي يرفض. الملك فهد حينها التفت إلى الرئيس الأمريكي وأخبره برغبته في الاطلاع على خطابه، ليأمر ريجان المترجم بمنح الملك فهد النسخة العربية من الخطاب. قرأ الملك فهد الخطاب، فوجد فيه فقرة تتحدث عن الشرق الأوسط وتلمّح إلى أن السعودية يجب أن تحذو حذو السادات وتوقّع اتفاقًا مع إسرائيل. طلب الملك حذف هذه الفقرة. وبعد شد وجذب، تم تعديل الخطاب بما يتماشى مع الثوابت السعودية، وجرى إلقاؤه من قبل الرئيس الأميركي دون أن يحتوي على ما يُخالف سياسة المملكة أو يُستغل ضدها لاحقًا. ما الفرق بين المشهدين؟ الأول لرئيس وقّع تحت عدسات الإعلام دون أن يعرف تفاصيل ما يوقّع عليه. والثاني لملك أصرّ على أن يقرأ، أن يراجع، وأن يوجّه حتى رئيس أقوى دولة في العالم ليعيد النظر في كلماته. ليست المسألة في من هو ذكي بل في الفارق الجوهري بين من يدير السياسة كإجراء، ومن يفهمها كمسؤولية. الملك فهد لم يكن فقط رجل دولة، بل كان رجل موقف. يقرأ ما بين السطور، ويعرف أن الكلمات قد تصبح قيدًا إن لم يُحسن ضبطها. وفي زمن تتسارع فيه الصور والمؤتمرات والوثائق، تظل تلك المفارقة شاهدة: البعض يوقّع لأن الورقة وُضعت أمامه، والبعض لا يسمح للورقة أن تُكتب إلا على طريقته

فيصل ابراهيم الشمري

13,045 次观看 • 1 年前

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