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Tuomas Malinen

@mtmalinen • 94,021 subscribers

Economist, forecaster, associate professor, CEO, PhD. Expert of financial crises and geopolitics. MACA. Newsletter: https://t.co/brrLzzBJqM

Shorts

And so, the Oreshnik is back. It reportedly was used to strike the largest underground gas storage in Europe, located in Stryi in the Lviv region. Play stupid games, receive stupid prizes Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський , CIA .

And so, the Oreshnik is back. It reportedly was used to strike the largest underground gas storage in Europe, located in Stryi in the Lviv region. Play stupid games, receive stupid prizes Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський , CIA .

24,700 Aufrufe

I have published a short analysis on the tremors in the Japanese bond markets (see below), but today it's about the Weekly Forecasts of GnS Economics . We are facing a conundrum. Our U.S. recession call (Q3/Q4) is challenged by our forecasts on U.S. bank lending, which imply that the credit recession would be ending. This also implies that the U.S. economy would recover. We are not altering our recession call, yet, because of the uncertainties concerning the forecasts. But this is a very intriguing conundrum. I hope next week will shed some more light on this when we continue to develop forecasts for the leading indicators of the OECD and bank lending of China.

I have published a short analysis on the tremors in the Japanese bond markets (see below), but today it's about the Weekly Forecasts of GnS Economics . We are facing a conundrum. Our U.S. recession call (Q3/Q4) is challenged by our forecasts on U.S. bank lending, which imply that the credit recession would be ending. This also implies that the U.S. economy would recover. We are not altering our recession call, yet, because of the uncertainties concerning the forecasts. But this is a very intriguing conundrum. I hope next week will shed some more light on this when we continue to develop forecasts for the leading indicators of the OECD and bank lending of China.

18,217 Aufrufe

Daily Thoughts: Crash. GnS Economics

Daily Thoughts: Crash. GnS Economics

12,567 Aufrufe

I started to construct inflation forecasts for GnS Economics . While these are just preliminary results, the forecasts show something that the Federal Reserve would not like to see.

I started to construct inflation forecasts for GnS Economics . While these are just preliminary results, the forecasts show something that the Federal Reserve would not like to see.

11,141 Aufrufe

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Yesterday, I co-authored a piece with Patricia Marins for GnS Economics on the likely change in the strategy of Iran. It looks like Iran was also looking for a ceasefire due to missile-related issues but also to move the war onto a different footing. In other words, Iran is looking for naval and ground battles next.

Yesterday, I co-authored a piece with Patricia Marins for GnS Economics on the likely change in the strategy of Iran. It looks like Iran was also looking for a ceasefire due to missile-related issues but also to move the war onto a different footing. In other words, Iran is looking for naval and ground battles next.

25,371 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

In the second section, Patricia Marins updates the military capabilities of Iran. While her analysis suggests a notable depletion of the ballistic missile stock, Iran's cruise missile and drone stock is almost untouched. Moreover, the ground forces of Iran are likely to be in full readiness. These suggest defeat for any U.S. ground campaign. 2/3

In the second section, Patricia Marins updates the military capabilities of Iran. While her analysis suggests a notable depletion of the ballistic missile stock, Iran's cruise missile and drone stock is almost untouched. Moreover, the ground forces of Iran are likely to be in full readiness. These suggest defeat for any U.S. ground campaign. 2/3

34,944 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

I now conclude that, most likely, Iran is the target of a covert war. This is done in an effort to destabilize the nation and to enact a regime without a war, which would be very destructive to Israel and for the world economy. President Donald J. Trump JD Vance Secretary Marco Rubio Ht Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️

I now conclude that, most likely, Iran is the target of a covert war. This is done in an effort to destabilize the nation and to enact a regime without a war, which would be very destructive to Israel and for the world economy. President Donald J. Trump JD Vance Secretary Marco Rubio Ht Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️

59,001 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

The failure of President Donald J. Trump in Ukraine is now nearly total. His brilliant move on Tuesday came too late, and it was not played as it should have been. We are at a point where Ukraine is likely to cease to exist completely, at the end. The question remaining is, can President Donald J. Trump stop a WWIII commencing from Europe? Link to the article in bio. JD Vance

The failure of President Donald J. Trump in Ukraine is now nearly total. His brilliant move on Tuesday came too late, and it was not played as it should have been. We are at a point where Ukraine is likely to cease to exist completely, at the end. The question remaining is, can President Donald J. Trump stop a WWIII commencing from Europe? Link to the article in bio. JD Vance

71,228 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Based on the information I've gathered during the past 30 hours, it looks more and more likely that the operation extracting President Maduro was a delicate, pre-planned, and agreed-upon operation. Moreover, evidence suggests it may have included the swapping of Venezuela for Ukraine. JD Vance

Based on the information I've gathered during the past 30 hours, it looks more and more likely that the operation extracting President Maduro was a delicate, pre-planned, and agreed-upon operation. Moreover, evidence suggests it may have included the swapping of Venezuela for Ukraine. JD Vance

46,749 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Haastatteluni Venäjän ykköskanavalla (suomenkielinen tekstitys).

Haastatteluni Venäjän ykköskanavalla (suomenkielinen tekstitys).

103,268 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Today, I explained why negotiations in Islamabad will, most likely, fail. The U.S. (President Trump) simply cannot sign onto a surrender, and Iran really does not need to budge. To my knowledge, this is the first time the U.S. is negotiating from a losing position. The likelihood of the parties finding a common ground from these positions is slim to none. There are also indications that negotiations are just a ploy. Patricia Marins

Today, I explained why negotiations in Islamabad will, most likely, fail. The U.S. (President Trump) simply cannot sign onto a surrender, and Iran really does not need to budge. To my knowledge, this is the first time the U.S. is negotiating from a losing position. The likelihood of the parties finding a common ground from these positions is slim to none. There are also indications that negotiations are just a ploy. Patricia Marins

18,224 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Over the weekend, Ukraine struck a Russian refinery in Primorsk (Koivisto) just 150 kilometers from Helsinki. It is almost certain that the targeting data came from U.S. troops in Finland. After the collapse of U.S. military might in the Middle East and pressure toward President Putin growing in Russia, such "games" are extremely dangerous. I have warned you about this time and time again. After the collapse of the U.S. military might in the Middle East, our leaders are playing chess with just pawns. You malevolent idiots! Alexander Stubb Petteri Orpo Riikka Purra Elina Valtonen PVKOM Janne Jaakkola

Over the weekend, Ukraine struck a Russian refinery in Primorsk (Koivisto) just 150 kilometers from Helsinki. It is almost certain that the targeting data came from U.S. troops in Finland. After the collapse of U.S. military might in the Middle East and pressure toward President Putin growing in Russia, such "games" are extremely dangerous. I have warned you about this time and time again. After the collapse of the U.S. military might in the Middle East, our leaders are playing chess with just pawns. You malevolent idiots! Alexander Stubb Petteri Orpo Riikka Purra Elina Valtonen PVKOM Janne Jaakkola

22,296 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The most likely scenario in the Weekly Forecasts of GnS Economics published yesterday was that President Putin and President Donald J. Trump reach a secret deal that Russia will gain control of the five regions under invasion. Publicly the outcome would be presented as "no deal." I am now quite confident that this is what we saw play out yesterday. The unresolved "one to two details" likely pertain to the security guarantees provided to both Ukraine and Russia. I also am rather confident that we are very close to ending the conflict, while the 'War Triad,' with the help of European leaders and the mainstream media, will do their utmost to derail this still. Good job! 👍 Vice President JD Vance Secretary Marco Rubio

The most likely scenario in the Weekly Forecasts of GnS Economics published yesterday was that President Putin and President Donald J. Trump reach a secret deal that Russia will gain control of the five regions under invasion. Publicly the outcome would be presented as "no deal." I am now quite confident that this is what we saw play out yesterday. The unresolved "one to two details" likely pertain to the security guarantees provided to both Ukraine and Russia. I also am rather confident that we are very close to ending the conflict, while the 'War Triad,' with the help of European leaders and the mainstream media, will do their utmost to derail this still. Good job! 👍 Vice President JD Vance Secretary Marco Rubio

48,721 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

What almost every Western analyst gets wrong with President Putin is that he's a moderate leader and that there's a "Russian neocon" clique of hardliners. There will come a point when Putin is forced to 'take off the gloves' in Ukraine or risk a hardliner coup. What I fear is that this point is rapidly approaching. President Donald J. Trump Vice President JD Vance Secretary Marco Rubio

What almost every Western analyst gets wrong with President Putin is that he's a moderate leader and that there's a "Russian neocon" clique of hardliners. There will come a point when Putin is forced to 'take off the gloves' in Ukraine or risk a hardliner coup. What I fear is that this point is rapidly approaching. President Donald J. Trump Vice President JD Vance Secretary Marco Rubio

47,281 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

If you look at everything the West is currently doing, it's hard to argue that it would NOT be pushing for a nuclear confrontation with Russia, which would destroy Europe (utterly) and engulf the world.

If you look at everything the West is currently doing, it's hard to argue that it would NOT be pushing for a nuclear confrontation with Russia, which would destroy Europe (utterly) and engulf the world.

38,907 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

With a very delicate move, Moscow is about to hand Iran a victory over the U.S. Just one more practical yet nuanced step is needed. GnS Economics

With a very delicate move, Moscow is about to hand Iran a victory over the U.S. Just one more practical yet nuanced step is needed. GnS Economics

14,912 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The Weekly Forecasts of GnS Economics deal with the extremely troubling prospect of a thermonuclear war erupting in Europe. We consider the likelihood of such an extreme event unfolding to be much higher than most understand. The free-to-read section goes through the recent economic indicators. 1/3

The Weekly Forecasts of GnS Economics deal with the extremely troubling prospect of a thermonuclear war erupting in Europe. We consider the likelihood of such an extreme event unfolding to be much higher than most understand. The free-to-read section goes through the recent economic indicators. 1/3

26,490 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Expect an utter failure in Istanbul (while some may try to present it as "progress," etc.). GnS Economics President Donald J. Trump Vice President JD Vance Steve Witkoff Secretary Marco Rubio

Expect an utter failure in Istanbul (while some may try to present it as "progress," etc.). GnS Economics President Donald J. Trump Vice President JD Vance Steve Witkoff Secretary Marco Rubio

40,278 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

President Trump over-played his hand in Ukraine, in Taiwan and now, existentially, in Iran. You reap what you sow, President Donald J. Trump . You reap what you sow.

President Trump over-played his hand in Ukraine, in Taiwan and now, existentially, in Iran. You reap what you sow, President Donald J. Trump . You reap what you sow.

13,636 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

John Cleese There's no revolution in Iran, but many displeased people because of the massive price hikes, which actually are related to the U.S.-led coup in Venezuela.

John Cleese There's no revolution in Iran, but many displeased people because of the massive price hikes, which actually are related to the U.S.-led coup in Venezuela.

19,111 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

I issue a warning of a possible NATO false flag attack targeting Finland. President Donald J. Trump Vice President JD Vance Alexander Stubb Elina Valtonen Petteri Orpo Emmanuel Macron Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz Donald Tusk Elon Musk Tucker Carlson Helsingin Sanomat Ilta-Sanomat Iltalehti Juho Hirvelä Diana Panchenko 🇺🇦 Joe Rogan Mark Rutte Dmitry Medvedev

I issue a warning of a possible NATO false flag attack targeting Finland. President Donald J. Trump Vice President JD Vance Alexander Stubb Elina Valtonen Petteri Orpo Emmanuel Macron Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz Donald Tusk Elon Musk Tucker Carlson Helsingin Sanomat Ilta-Sanomat Iltalehti Juho Hirvelä Diana Panchenko 🇺🇦 Joe Rogan Mark Rutte Dmitry Medvedev

37,571 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I spent most of last evening and parts of the night piecing together the strategy of the Kremlin. I was essentially pushed into this by the insightful notions of Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️ and Patricia Marins (tnx!). Kremlin exerts strategic patience (to the extreme). However, the plays conducted by President Donald J. Trump and the European Coalition for War against Russia are essentially Russian roulette. JD Vance Secretary Marco Rubio Special Envoy Steve Witkoff Emmanuel Macron Elina Valtonen

I spent most of last evening and parts of the night piecing together the strategy of the Kremlin. I was essentially pushed into this by the insightful notions of Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️ and Patricia Marins (tnx!). Kremlin exerts strategic patience (to the extreme). However, the plays conducted by President Donald J. Trump and the European Coalition for War against Russia are essentially Russian roulette. JD Vance Secretary Marco Rubio Special Envoy Steve Witkoff Emmanuel Macron Elina Valtonen

27,111 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Today, I analyzed the recent corrupted actions by the Federal Reserve and the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen . Their recent actions do not survive any scrutiny, and especially if the financial theft of the European Commission goes through, there will be grave consequences.

Today, I analyzed the recent corrupted actions by the Federal Reserve and the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen . Their recent actions do not survive any scrutiny, and especially if the financial theft of the European Commission goes through, there will be grave consequences.

19,347 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

The European leaders need to start to "mold" the attitude of Europeans towards the war against Russia, which they are strongly against at the moment. This implies that they would target civilians with these attacks, which are possibly being prepared by European intelligence agencies as I write these lines. 2/2 Emmanuel Macron Ursula von der Leyen Keir Starmer

The European leaders need to start to "mold" the attitude of Europeans towards the war against Russia, which they are strongly against at the moment. This implies that they would target civilians with these attacks, which are possibly being prepared by European intelligence agencies as I write these lines. 2/2 Emmanuel Macron Ursula von der Leyen Keir Starmer

22,218 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten