nextbigfuture
@nextbigfuture • 19,207 subscribers
Brian Wang | NextBigFuture: Deep Tech Insights on AI, Drones, Space, Energy & Investments | Proven prediction track record (Metaculus rank 8 + Grok citations
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In 3 DAYS EVERYTHING CHANGES FOR SPACEX A new SpaceX vehicle will be demonstrated on Tuesday June 23 2026. SpaceX Elon Musk Aaron Burnett Vlad Saigau ARK Invest It changes everything. SpaceX will be able to deliver anywhere on Earth. They will be able to take anything up and down from space and put it anywhere on Earth. This opens up multiple huge revenue streams. Deliver even without catch towers or drones ships. ANYWHERE. In future, variants will deliver people ANYWHERE.
nextbigfuture21,463 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen
$TSLA can go over $500 this week. I predict a big announcement during the Trump trip to China. Elon Musk would not go to China unless there was a major deal to be announced. I expect is either full Tesla FSD approval in China which would double the FSD TAM (Total addressible market) or some factory expansion announcements. Randy Kirk
nextbigfuture65,220 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Finally, the Tesla Model Q is revealed. I checked video evidence from Met God in the Wilderness drone footage. I used AI to analyze it. It is a compact Model Y and probably costs $35000 in the USA before incentives and $25,000 in China. $TSLA See the evidence and the analysis. Randy Kirk Ale𝕏andra Merz 🇺🇲 Herbert Ong FutureAzA Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Sawyer Merritt
nextbigfuture349,964 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Tesla now has 72 robotaxi in Austin. This is twice as much as 2 weeks ago and 22 were added in the last 3 days. There are 232 cars in Austin and the Bay Area. Only 137 different license plates for Waymos have been seen in Austin. Tesla can pass Waymo in number of cars in Austin. Tesla has registered 1655 cars in the Bay Area. Tesla can add those cars and they have over 700 registered drivers if they wanted to to deploy cars with safety drivers. Tesla has over 50,000 miles of driving needed for safety submission in California. 1500+ in SF Bay Area and 500+ is possible for Tesla robotaxi in February or March. Elon Musk Jo Bhakdi
nextbigfuture81,752 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
TESLA ROBOTAXI TIMELINE REVEALED Elon Musk has said that Tesla will have over 1000 robotaxi in the SF bay area and over 500 robotaxi Austin by the end of 2025 and they will 6-8 more cities with small fleets with about 100-200 cars. Those new cities will have safety monitors or drivers for 3 months. This means we could scale to 10 cities with 500-3000 cars each in Q2. 2026. So 10000-20000 robotaxi in Q2 2026. Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Herbert Ong Randy Kirk Jo Bhakdi Sawyer Merritt Farzad Dave Lee Emmet Peppers
nextbigfuture94,988 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten
ROBOTRUCKING (Tesla semi + FSD 14) can be more profitable than robotaxi. Everyone is missing the potential profitability and stock impact of Tesla's Semi truck equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD), transforming it into a robotruck. FSD is making solid progress in Austin and FSD 14 will be released in September with 10X the parameters. Test pilot production has started for Tesla Semi as the factory in Nevada is done. Farzad Herbert Ong Dave Lee Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Randy Kirk stevenmarkryan Sawyer Merritt ARK Invest Elon Musk Robotrucks could generate 10x the profit of Tesla's Cybercab robo taxis, with each truck potentially yielding $650,000 in annual profit compared to $50,000–$70,000 per year for a robotaxi. This is driven by trucks' ability to operate 22 hours/day, covering 200,000–350,000 miles/year (4–7x more than taxis), while maintaining similar revenue per mile ($2–$2.60) and lower costs (32–34 cents/mile total ownership cost without drivers). Production is ramping up to 50,000 units/year, and FSD is progressing rapidly. Unlike robo taxis, which may face revenue drops competing with personal cars (down to 70 cents/mile), trucking is purely commercial with a stable $2 trillion global market. This will drive massive Tesla valuation growth: conservative estimates add $3,000–$6,000 to share price by 2030, while capturing the full market could reach $80 trillion (including robotaxis) in share value. Optimus robots could further boost efficiency and demand by 4x, enabling new logistics and economic growth.
nextbigfuture63,012 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten
TARGETING 490K-510K for TESLA Q3 DELIVERIES Awaiting Tesla Q3 delivery numbers on October 2nd (hoping for 500k+ vehicles and 13 GWh energy storage). A potential surge to $500–$520 this week on strong results, amplified by FSD rollout and options activity. Fibonacci analysis points to $600 by November, with $2T market cap as resistance. Sustained growth needs robotaxi/FSD progress or Model Y/3 sales ramps. The new 6-seater Model Y Long Range (YL) in China jumped from ~1k/week to 4k in week 4 which mean potentially 50K-70K Model YL units in Q4. This guarantees Q4 numbers will show solid global production. Randy Kirk Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸
nextbigfuture34,496 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten
MISUNDERSTANDING TESLA CEO PLAN- $20 TRILLION NOT $8.5 TRILLION Most important goals in the 2025 Tesla CEO compensation plan for Elon Musk is the $400 Billion EBITDA target. Hitting that target and holding it for 36 months will make Tesla worth $20 trillion. Nvidia is worth $4-$4.5 trillion with Adjusted EBITDA of $83 billion. A five times larger EBITDA (correlated to true profit potential) will enable a $20 trillion valuation. Adjusted EBITDA is a better measure of long term profit. Removes one time charges to get true earning of core businesses. Elon Musk Tesla Royden D'Souza Tesla Robotaxi
nextbigfuture35,635 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten
Dojo 2, Dojo 3 Chips and AI5 Chips Are Critical for Tesla and Battle for Future of AI. Tesla and XAI are buying about one million AI GPUs this year. This would be about 20% of the entire Nvidia production of B200/B300 chips that will be made in 2025. If XAI were to buy a mix of half Dojo 2/3 chips in 2025 and 2026 this could make them bigger than AMD. AMD is making about 400,000 AI GPU chips. Tesla will switch to AI5 chips for driving its cars but those chips will also act as inference chips with about 500 Teraflops of compute. Tesla could make 3-4 million AI5 chips in 2026. This would make Tesla the largest maker and user of AI inference chips in the world. Tesla could become the number 2 maker of AI training chips just by supplying a lot of those chips to XAI and Tesla internal use. Tesla is and will be the number one maker and user of AI inference chips. Sawyer Merritt Elon Musk Randy Kirk Herbert Ong Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Ale𝕏andra Merz 🇺🇲 Ray Emmet Peppers Bradford Ferguson
nextbigfuture23,809 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Tesla lower priced car model and solving FSD this quarter will massively pressure other car makers over the next 2 years. I have a video below of the problems this will and weakness of BYD and china car companies and the tiny size of the robotaxi companies. BYD is probably unprofitable now. Definitely its EV business is unprofitable. Claimed profit margin 4% but 275 days to pay suppliers. Likely 3% interest charges being avoided. Tesla launching a 20-25% lower cost model would be $24K China start model 3 (yuan 185k) US $34.5K before $7.5 credit NOW $31K China start model 3 (yuan 235k) US $42.5K Model 3 before $7.5 credit $36K China start model Y (yuan 264K) US $49k Model Y before $7.5k credit Average Price US Cars $50K Average Full size pickup $64K Average Used car US $25K With tax credit and US made interest deduction on car loan, Tesla $27K after credit is about price of an average used car. Far larger TAM in china where it is mostly lower priced cars. A lot of pressure on BYD, Xiaomi, Nio, Li Auto and other china car makers. Pressure on legacy auto who are already losing car sales and market share. Volkswagen dropped about 10% in cars sales in China and profits declining. Tariffs of 10-25% also cause problems.
nextbigfuture17,805 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
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