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Oguz Erkan

@oguzerkan • 121,166 subscribers

Investor | The founder & writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter read in +180 countries

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Considering entering $ORCL again. Here's why: Brad Gerstner said last month that Anthropic and OpenAI combined were doing ~$80 billion in revenue. That puts OpenAI around $30 billion ARR, since Anthropic is reportedly near $50 billion. If so, OpenAI is ahead of its own numbers. Its winter 2025 projection had FY2026 revenue at $25 billion. That derisks $ORCL, whose backlog is 54% OpenAI, and makes the risk/reward attractive again at 18x forward earnings.

Considering entering $ORCL again. Here's why: Brad Gerstner said last month that Anthropic and OpenAI combined were doing ~$80 billion in revenue. That puts OpenAI around $30 billion ARR, since Anthropic is reportedly near $50 billion. If so, OpenAI is ahead of its own numbers. Its winter 2025 projection had FY2026 revenue at $25 billion. That derisks $ORCL, whose backlog is 54% OpenAI, and makes the risk/reward attractive again at 18x forward earnings.

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$AMD CEO: “We are 2 years into 10-year AI buildout.” Lisa Su said this last year and $AMD reached an all-time high this year as GPU and CPU demand is skyrocketing. We are still at just year 3 of a decade-long infrastructure buildout. McKinsey estimates AI infrastructure spending will reach $5-$8 trillion by 2030. And then we’ll still have at least a few more years of rapid buildout to reach sufficient capacity to train next-gen models and serve every inference demand at attractive prices. Then all this infrastructure will need to be renewed every 4-5 years. Selling $AMD here means selling it just at the beginning of the largest IT buildout.

$AMD CEO: “We are 2 years into 10-year AI buildout.” Lisa Su said this last year and $AMD reached an all-time high this year as GPU and CPU demand is skyrocketing. We are still at just year 3 of a decade-long infrastructure buildout. McKinsey estimates AI infrastructure spending will reach $5-$8 trillion by 2030. And then we’ll still have at least a few more years of rapid buildout to reach sufficient capacity to train next-gen models and serve every inference demand at attractive prices. Then all this infrastructure will need to be renewed every 4-5 years. Selling $AMD here means selling it just at the beginning of the largest IT buildout.

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2/ Global trade was the biggest driver of prosperity in the last 80 years. Marks likens it to a wave that lifted all boats. United States also massively benefited from this. How? It turned from an manufacturing economy to a service economy.

2/ Global trade was the biggest driver of prosperity in the last 80 years. Marks likens it to a wave that lifted all boats. United States also massively benefited from this. How? It turned from an manufacturing economy to a service economy.

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$OSCR CFO: “It’s a great time to enter the stock.” They are guiding for $750 million operating income this year and CEO said their stock price should be $45-$55. Even if his target is off by 50%, there is at least 70% upside from here. Why wouldn’t $OSCR work from here?

$OSCR CFO: “It’s a great time to enter the stock.” They are guiding for $750 million operating income this year and CEO said their stock price should be $45-$55. Even if his target is off by 50%, there is at least 70% upside from here. Why wouldn’t $OSCR work from here?

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Bill Ackman: “If a company is increasing growth capex while earning above average returns, you should applaud.” This is why $AMZN is my biggest position. Invests $25 billion in Anthropic to get it to commit to $100 billion in AWS spending over the next decade, while the investment itself will likely double as well. $AMZN execution has been elite since early 2025. More to come. Long $AMZN.

Bill Ackman: “If a company is increasing growth capex while earning above average returns, you should applaud.” This is why $AMZN is my biggest position. Invests $25 billion in Anthropic to get it to commit to $100 billion in AWS spending over the next decade, while the investment itself will likely double as well. $AMZN execution has been elite since early 2025. More to come. Long $AMZN.

698,870 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

$OSCR CEO: “Our stock should be between $45-$55 a share by the end of 2026.” Yesterday, he disclosed his purchase of almost $12 million worth of shares. An insider putting a large sum of his own money where his mouth is. That’s all you need to know.

$OSCR CEO: “Our stock should be between $45-$55 a share by the end of 2026.” Yesterday, he disclosed his purchase of almost $12 million worth of shares. An insider putting a large sum of his own money where his mouth is. That’s all you need to know.

758,868 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

If you are wondering why asset prices are tanking watch this interview of Kevin Warsh. He dislikes quantitative easing as he believes it inflates asset prices and increases inequality between workers and asset owners. Expect a tighter Fed balance sheet, so less liquidity.

If you are wondering why asset prices are tanking watch this interview of Kevin Warsh. He dislikes quantitative easing as he believes it inflates asset prices and increases inequality between workers and asset owners. Expect a tighter Fed balance sheet, so less liquidity.

1,122,008 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Ray Dalio said we are in a bubble, but we need something to prick it for it to deflate. This is what pricks it. Japan has just approved a $265 billion stimulus package while the Yen is at its weakest in a year. They'll have to hike rates eventually, and those who borrowed Yen and bought US stocks will have to exit their positions to cover increased borrowing costs, a classic unwind of the carry trade. Time to get defensive rather than offensive. You should still buy no-brainers if the market gives them away for cheap, but be careful, keep your cash pile large and your systematic risk exposure low.

Ray Dalio said we are in a bubble, but we need something to prick it for it to deflate. This is what pricks it. Japan has just approved a $265 billion stimulus package while the Yen is at its weakest in a year. They'll have to hike rates eventually, and those who borrowed Yen and bought US stocks will have to exit their positions to cover increased borrowing costs, a classic unwind of the carry trade. Time to get defensive rather than offensive. You should still buy no-brainers if the market gives them away for cheap, but be careful, keep your cash pile large and your systematic risk exposure low.

1,553,466 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

$AMZN AWS CEO: “All Anthropic models out today were trained on Trainium.” Trainium 2 has been sold out, Trainium 3 is almost completely subscribed and a part of Trainium 4 is already reserved. Chip division is now at $20bn annual run rate. How can’t you be bullish on $AMZN?

$AMZN AWS CEO: “All Anthropic models out today were trained on Trainium.” Trainium 2 has been sold out, Trainium 3 is almost completely subscribed and a part of Trainium 4 is already reserved. Chip division is now at $20bn annual run rate. How can’t you be bullish on $AMZN?

663,175 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Charlie Munger: “I have had my Berkshire stock decline by 50% three times and it doesn’t bother me.” Drawdowns are natural consequences of owning stocks. An average stock swings by 100% from peak-to-trough every year. If you own good businesses, there is nothing to worry about.

Charlie Munger: “I have had my Berkshire stock decline by 50% three times and it doesn’t bother me.” Drawdowns are natural consequences of owning stocks. An average stock swings by 100% from peak-to-trough every year. If you own good businesses, there is nothing to worry about.

453,315 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Stanley Druckenmiller on Copper: “It’s in the tightest position I have ever studied.” He said this in 2023 but didn’t take a position because he believed a hard landing was coming. He was wrong about the hard landing, but right about copper. Demand is exploding.

Stanley Druckenmiller on Copper: “It’s in the tightest position I have ever studied.” He said this in 2023 but didn’t take a position because he believed a hard landing was coming. He was wrong about the hard landing, but right about copper. Demand is exploding.

611,177 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

$AMZN CEO: “If you are building a big inference business and want decent margings, not having your custom chips is a disadvantage.” 40% of $AMZN compute comes from its custom chips. Result? AWS margins climb higher while peers lag, according to SemiAnalysis.

$AMZN CEO: “If you are building a big inference business and want decent margings, not having your custom chips is a disadvantage.” 40% of $AMZN compute comes from its custom chips. Result? AWS margins climb higher while peers lag, according to SemiAnalysis.

203,673 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Ray Dalio: “Debt problem is followed by devaluation of the currency.” Looks like this is exactly how the US will handle its debt problem. Kevin Warsh’s Fed will peg short-term rates to artificially low levels, and buy treasuries to keep them down, inflating the debt away. We saw this play out in the three decades following World War II, and it’s plausible that the US is preparing for a similar maneuver as Debt/GDP is currently over 120%. This is why central banks are dumping US debt and buying gold instead.

Ray Dalio: “Debt problem is followed by devaluation of the currency.” Looks like this is exactly how the US will handle its debt problem. Kevin Warsh’s Fed will peg short-term rates to artificially low levels, and buy treasuries to keep them down, inflating the debt away. We saw this play out in the three decades following World War II, and it’s plausible that the US is preparing for a similar maneuver as Debt/GDP is currently over 120%. This is why central banks are dumping US debt and buying gold instead.

548,785 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Elon Musk: "We'll have the chip shortage now, voltage transformer shortage in a year, followed by electricity shortage." Elon said this two years ago, and we are now seeing it play out. Transformer lead times have stretched from weeks to 1-2 years, so grid connection wait times have also jumped to years. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are predicting a power shortage by 2028. Energy is the AI trade now. $TLN $CEG $ET $SEI $DY $BE $MTZ $PWR $MTZ

Elon Musk: "We'll have the chip shortage now, voltage transformer shortage in a year, followed by electricity shortage." Elon said this two years ago, and we are now seeing it play out. Transformer lead times have stretched from weeks to 1-2 years, so grid connection wait times have also jumped to years. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are predicting a power shortage by 2028. Energy is the AI trade now. $TLN $CEG $ET $SEI $DY $BE $MTZ $PWR $MTZ

589,782 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

$AMZN CEO: “There is a power shortage in the US and the world.” For new data centers, the most optimistic grid connection wait time is 3 years as power transformer lead times stretch to 12-24 months. So, most of the developers and hyperscalers are resorting to natural gas as it’s the fastest option. But even then, permitting is still an issue and risks delays and cancellations as is the case for $NBIS New Jersey data center. Power is now a bigger bottleneck for scaling AI than it’s ever been.

$AMZN CEO: “There is a power shortage in the US and the world.” For new data centers, the most optimistic grid connection wait time is 3 years as power transformer lead times stretch to 12-24 months. So, most of the developers and hyperscalers are resorting to natural gas as it’s the fastest option. But even then, permitting is still an issue and risks delays and cancellations as is the case for $NBIS New Jersey data center. Power is now a bigger bottleneck for scaling AI than it’s ever been.

293,900 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

$AMD CEO: “We will need to add 100x more compute in the next 4-5 years.” McKinsey predicts that semiconductor market will double to $1.6 trillion by 2030. Lisa Su guides for 35% annual revenue growth for $AMD by 2030. $AMD is the most compelling opportunity in the chip space.

$AMD CEO: “We will need to add 100x more compute in the next 4-5 years.” McKinsey predicts that semiconductor market will double to $1.6 trillion by 2030. Lisa Su guides for 35% annual revenue growth for $AMD by 2030. $AMD is the most compelling opportunity in the chip space.

286,606 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Ray Dalio: "Global monetary order is breaking." Dalio thinks the US and the allies are losing trust in one another, so central banks don't want to hold the US bonds. This is why commodities are skyrocketing, and it's not going to reverse anytime soon. His advice? Buy gold.

Ray Dalio: "Global monetary order is breaking." Dalio thinks the US and the allies are losing trust in one another, so central banks don't want to hold the US bonds. This is why commodities are skyrocketing, and it's not going to reverse anytime soon. His advice? Buy gold.

491,137 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

$NVDA CEO: “Demand for inference will go up by a billion times.” $AMD will be one of the biggest winners as it has the upper hand in inference thanks to larger memory bandwith and capacity of its chips. Stock is still at 22x 2027 earnings. How can’t you be bullish on $AMD?

$NVDA CEO: “Demand for inference will go up by a billion times.” $AMD will be one of the biggest winners as it has the upper hand in inference thanks to larger memory bandwith and capacity of its chips. Stock is still at 22x 2027 earnings. How can’t you be bullish on $AMD?

282,229 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Charlie Munger: "I've had my Berkshire stock decline by 50% three times and it doesn't bother me that much. It's a part of the game." Volatility is a part of the game. Just stay calm, and don’t make decisions in panic. Remember, we are just 6% away from the all-time high.

Charlie Munger: "I've had my Berkshire stock decline by 50% three times and it doesn't bother me that much. It's a part of the game." Volatility is a part of the game. Just stay calm, and don’t make decisions in panic. Remember, we are just 6% away from the all-time high.

616,817 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

$NVDA CEO: “Inference demand will go up by a billion times.” We are just in the very early innings. Compute demand will likely grow by another 10x over the next decade and current TAM projections for GPU/CPU will look too conservative in hindsight. $AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM

$NVDA CEO: “Inference demand will go up by a billion times.” We are just in the very early innings. Compute demand will likely grow by another 10x over the next decade and current TAM projections for GPU/CPU will look too conservative in hindsight. $AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM

198,500 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

No wonder Jensen got so defensive over $NVDA GPUs against custom chips. $GOOG will start using different custom chips for inference and training. $AMZN has already adopted this approach as they have Trainium for training and Inferentia for inference. Hyperscalers obviously see better price/performance in this approach, and this is where the industry is headed. $AVGO and $MRVL are poised to be big winners, while $NVDA dominance will be under increasing pressure.

No wonder Jensen got so defensive over $NVDA GPUs against custom chips. $GOOG will start using different custom chips for inference and training. $AMZN has already adopted this approach as they have Trainium for training and Inferentia for inference. Hyperscalers obviously see better price/performance in this approach, and this is where the industry is headed. $AVGO and $MRVL are poised to be big winners, while $NVDA dominance will be under increasing pressure.

223,244 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Peter Thiel says the quiet part loud: AI chips will get commoditized. This is why I avoid $NVDA. It made an immense amount of money marking up its GPUs by 10x and others had to pay as alternatives weren’t good enough. Now they are getting good enough. $AMD has already caught up with $NVDA in hardware performance, and ASICS are proving unexpectedly competitive due to their efficiency. $GOOG trained Gemini 3 solely on TPUs, and Anthropic is running a significant part of its training and inference workloads on Trainium clusters. As alternatives become even stronger, $NVDA margins and volumes will erode, and profits will shift from hardware to the application layer.

Peter Thiel says the quiet part loud: AI chips will get commoditized. This is why I avoid $NVDA. It made an immense amount of money marking up its GPUs by 10x and others had to pay as alternatives weren’t good enough. Now they are getting good enough. $AMD has already caught up with $NVDA in hardware performance, and ASICS are proving unexpectedly competitive due to their efficiency. $GOOG trained Gemini 3 solely on TPUs, and Anthropic is running a significant part of its training and inference workloads on Trainium clusters. As alternatives become even stronger, $NVDA margins and volumes will erode, and profits will shift from hardware to the application layer.

460,614 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

$SOFI CEO: “We didn’t raise the guidance because we don’t expect any rate cuts this year.” This is a great time to enter $SOFI at a discount. They are always more conservative than the consensus, so they tend to surprise on the upside if macro conditions end up being better than they expected. We get a single cut this year and $SOFI will go brrr.. The upside vastly outstrips the downside here. Long $SOFI.

$SOFI CEO: “We didn’t raise the guidance because we don’t expect any rate cuts this year.” This is a great time to enter $SOFI at a discount. They are always more conservative than the consensus, so they tend to surprise on the upside if macro conditions end up being better than they expected. We get a single cut this year and $SOFI will go brrr.. The upside vastly outstrips the downside here. Long $SOFI.

176,313 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Ray Dalio: “If you don’t own gold, you know neither history, nor economics.” He says that gold becomes attractive when other currencies are unreliable. This is what we are seeing now. If private investors increase their average gold allocation from 3% to 4.5% in response to eroding trust in fiat, gold price can spike to $8,000, according to JPMorgan. Insane..

Ray Dalio: “If you don’t own gold, you know neither history, nor economics.” He says that gold becomes attractive when other currencies are unreliable. This is what we are seeing now. If private investors increase their average gold allocation from 3% to 4.5% in response to eroding trust in fiat, gold price can spike to $8,000, according to JPMorgan. Insane..

337,551 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад