Patricia Marins
@pati_marins64 • 400,214 subscribers
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One of the Houthis’ tactics is ambushing convoys on mined routes, opening fire with machine guns and a rain of mortars to create panic and turn the columns into easier targets. This has significantly slowed the advance of Saudi-backed troops, who, even with substantial air support, are struggling to consolidate positions. Clashes continue nonetheless, with casualties on both sides. The attacks on Saudi infrastructure are obviously worrying their allies in Yemen and lowering troop morale. But did the Houthis really mine routes in the desert? Who was the crazy one? Rommel did it, and he used ambush tactics very similar to these. As I said earlier, any real pacification of the region depends on an understanding between Trump and the IRGC, which is unlikely. Everyone else is a secondary actor. The Saudis don’t have enough bombs or interceptors for a conflict lasting months. Even if they did, it wouldn’t change much. The chances of intercepting saturated waves of drones plus more than one type of missile are not high. But even if the Saudis decided to go all-in against the Houthis, mobilize their own army, add another 250,000 men to the front, and get drawn into a deeper war, what would Saudi Arabia actually gain? That equation doesn’t add up for me.
Patricia Marins98,113 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce
JD Vance has entered the talks with the Yemenis. What everyone already knew would happen has happened: the war in Yemen has sent oil prices soaring. But there is nothing Vance can do, because this is a situation that can only be resolved in Tehran. Talks between Riyadh and Tehran began yesterday to deal with the problem. And why did the Trump administration allow the situation to get this far? Because it calculated that the GCC would fear a drawn-out conflict and accept a deal with Iran in which it picked up the bill for the war. (Now it’s all about who pays the bills.) That did not happen, and the administration now fears that oil prices will weigh even more heavily on Trump’s already eroded popularity. There is no problem to be solved in the Middle East today that was not created by the war itself. No one talks anymore about those original war aims.
Patricia Marins291,444 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Japan has just rendered an entire generation of conventional submarines obsolete, and the world hasn’t fully realized it yet. With the Taigei class and its lithium-ion batteries, Tokyo already set a new benchmark: up to three weeks submerged without ever raising a snorkel. That, however, was merely the opening act. Today, Toyota and Panasonic are leading the global race in solid-state batteries, with prototypes arriving in 2027–2028, mass production after 2030, and Japan’s next submarine class will be the first to use them, either in pure battery form or as a hybrid with a small reactor for onboard recharging. This hybrid would be similar to what the Chineses are developing. The leap is staggering. A 4,000 ton conventional submarine will patrol for 40 to 60 days without surfacing, sprint well above 20 knots for hours on end, and do it all more quietly than many nuclear subs, thanks to being significantly lighter and running solely on battery power. Solid-state cells weigh roughly one-third as much, generate 40 % less heat, and eliminate half the cooling systems. The result is a faster, stealthier hull that can travel thousands of kilometers without ever breaking the surface. Those hundreds of saved tons translate directly into more powerful electric motors, extra torpedoes and missiles, cutting-edge sensors, or greater crew comfort. The same hull now carries twice the energy or twice the weapons. It means that by 2035–2040, Japan will field conventional submarines with the endurance and sprint performance of today’s 8,000-ton nuclear boats, at one-third the cost and without the political baggage of uranium.
Patricia Marins2,734,802 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
The United States has handed the Chinese an encyclopedia on its military doctrines. The war involving the US and Israel is being monitored and recorded in real time by LEO satellite constellations such as Jilin-1, which are even capable of capturing 4K UHD video. Today, China operates at least three LEO constellations comprising at least 300 satellites dedicated to espionage or dual-use purposes. From the images constantly released about American bases, it is clear that the Chinese are building a true encyclopedia on U.S. naval and air doctrines. Every ship positioning, fiend tactics, refueling time, ammunition resupply, everything is being monitored by Chinese satellites. This includes the exact location and behavior of air defenses, their mapped reaction times, missile trajectories, and reprogramming durations. Nothing escapes the Chinese gaze. In this conflict, they have already mapped and publicly released data on multiple American bases in the region, even identifying the exact number and models of aircraft on the ground. The war against Iran is giving the Chinese something they never had in the Ukrainian theater: the opportunity to study and document American forces in detail. To give you an idea, in 2025 the Chinese recorded a video of Atlanta’s airport purely to demonstrate their capability. I believe the same kind of videos are being produced daily on the American front against Iran. Never in history has a U.S conflict been observed from the skies at this level, both tactically and strategically. The price of the Iran war is high in many ways, as I have always said. And this single episode is giving the Chinese decades of planning and improvement in one go. (Atlanta Airport)
Patricia Marins1,512,877 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce
Trump has already given the green light and a plan is underway Iranian intelligence is exceptional inside Iraq, especially in the Kurdish region along the border between the two countries. Iran knows exactly what this plan entails and has launched its harshest wave of strikes yet against Kurdish forces in Iraq and American installations. Several Kurdish ammunition depots have been destroyed, while Iranian troops have been reinforced and deployed to Khuzestan province, the energy heart of Iran and the site of Saddam’s historic defeat. U.S. forces have now carried out their seventh consecutive day of strikes on Iran, entirely focused on destroying its defenses in preparation for the next phase of action. Follow us on
Patricia Marins572,738 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
The situation is highly complicated for the Pakistanis and the Turks. While these countries want to operate only through diplomatic pressure, Saudi Arabia is invoking clauses of the Mecca Pact and is at its limit, under attacks that are already restricting and even halting Saudi exports. What is taking shape today is an agreement for the supply of equipment and the secret financing of military personnel from both countries. Some doubt the Saudis will actually take that step with this offensive, but I would say every piece is already being moved in that direction. And that will obviously involve Iranian action and direct involvement by the Gulf states, exactly what Trump has been seeking for months, without success. The one thing that does not fit any clause of the Mecca Pact is that it was the Saudis who struck the Yemenis, hitting their airport, not the other way around. Which clause of the Mecca Pact covers that? Obviously, no one here is saying the Houthis operate outside Iranian influence. Independence for this movement does not exist today, and is unlikely in the near future, given its dependence on Iranian military technology and political support. As I have said here before, everything involving Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Iraqi PMF bears Iran’s hand. If the Saudis go ahead, as everything indicates they will, the war will resume with more actors on the field. Once Iran intervenes on behalf of the Houthis, will the GCC fight alongside Israel against Iran?
Patricia Marins65,571 görüntüleme • 12 gün önce
Why I say Japanese submarines are so dangerous and quieter than many nuclear submarines Conventional diesel-electric submarines are normally quieter than nuclear ones only at very low speeds, typically up to around 2-7 knots. Above that speed they quickly become noisy, while modern nuclear submarines can maintain excellent stealth up to about 20 knots. The British Astute-class, the Virginia Class and probably the French Suffren-class are said to remain among the quietest submarines in the world even at speeds close to 22-25 knots, behind only of the super quieter SeaWolf. So what does this have to do with Japanese submarines? The latest Japanese Subs represent such a leap in technology that they can stay extremely quiet up to 15 knots or more, a figure that gets remarkably close to modern nuclear submarines and is clearly superior to older nuclear classes. On top of that, these Japanese submarines are equipped with AIP and advanced lithium-ion batteries in the Taigei-class, allowing them to remain submerged for 15–20 days at low speed. When solid-state batteries enter service in the next generation, that endurance will practically double and this is scheduled to happen before 2030. Imagine how many daily patrols an adversary would need to track something that can disappear for weeks and need only few hours to recharge on surface. In regional scenarios (Indo-Pacific, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait), the Japanese strategy is perfectly suited, and maintenance costs are far lower than those of nuclear submarines. It is no coincidence that Israel has become a customer and ordered several of these boats. Submarines are a state of art for Japanese.
Patricia Marins1,451,286 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
An operation planned entirely for a 5-day war As we’ve been discussing over the past few days, the shortage of interceptors is already critical and is directly affecting the United States, Israel, and their allies, who are now openly accusing the U.S. of turning its back on them and prioritizing Israel’s protection instead. Not to mention the failure to evacuate the bases, with soldiers reportedly hiding in hotels in the face of such obvious bombardment in a conflict of this scale. Very soon these countries will be left completely defenseless. In the best-case scenario, there will only be enough ammunition left for another 4 days if Iran returns to its initial pace of attacks. But that’s not even the main concern. In the configuration most oriented toward anti-missile defense, which is almost certainly the loadout of the two Carrier Strike Groups currently stationed in the region, the number of Tomahawks should range between 300 and 500 missiles. Since hundreds have already been expended in the last 3 days, it’s quite possible that no more than 100–150 remain o even less. So, in addition to the interceptor shortage, the Tomahawk inventory is also dropping fast, and they can only be reloaded in port. Although the Navy is working on at-sea reload capability, it is still not operational. Everything was planned for a lightning war that never materialized. Now we’re seeing chaos: soldiers dying, aircraft and drones being shot down, critical shortages of both interceptors and Tomahawks, and none of the main objectives achieved yet. On top of that, only a small portion of those Tomahawks are anti-ship variants, and at least 20 of them have already been used to sink Iranian vessels. Why is this so serious? Iran still operates a navy with more than 30 ships and hundreds of fast attack boats armed with missiles, forces that have not yet entered the fight. Could they simply be shadowing the U.S. fleet and waiting for the American VLS cells to run dry? I’m raising a very real possibility: the United States could soon find itself exposed, lacking land-based missile defenses and with no meaningful firepower left at sea. My impression is that the entire operation was designed for just 5 days of war.
Patricia Marins950,983 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce
The US and Israel are carrying out intense bombing raids on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex, which accounts for 85% of the country’s production in this sector. The damage is massive, yet the complex covers 54,000 hectares and would require many days of sustained heavy bombing to achieve its total destruction. Even so, the losses are certainly in the range of tens of billions of dollars in destroyed infrastructure and lost profits.
Patricia Marins668,880 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
I'm not here analyzing the capabilities of the Chinese J-50. I just want to point out the level of detail and craftsmanship in Chinese engineering. Less than 20 years ago, almost everything Chinese was remembered for low quality, and yet, they have not only advanced technologically but also improved in aesthetic refinement.
Patricia Marins1,290,846 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Will Iran maintain its launch capacity? No, Iran will likely not sustain the same volume of missile launches as it did in the first two days of the war. This helps extend the lifespan of Air Defenses used by the US, Israel, and their allies. Let me explain how this works. During the previous 12-day war, Israel had already mapped many of Iran's launch sites. This time, those sites were among the first to be bombed. Every time Iran conducts a launch, Israeli and American drones equipped with sensors can detect smoke and heat signatures, pinpointing hidden sites. Coordinates are quickly passed on, followed by strikes. This process steadily degrades Iran's capabilities, forcing them to clear debris, reopen tunnel entrances, resume patrols, and repair sites after each attack. Iran is known to operate around 25 underground missile cities, plus about 65 bunkers and tunnels with launch capability (based on what has been publicly identified so far, the real number is likely higher). Iran also operates hundreds of mobile launchers and at least 120 known silos (again, the actual total is probably significantly greater). There is no such thing as a quick war against Iran. Contrary to what some US and Israeli officials are claiming, I do not see evidence of an imminent shortage of Iranian launchers. It would take weeks or even months to fully deplete Iran's stockpile of launchers, which have been built up and accumulated over the past 25–30 years. What is more likely happening is that Iran is unwilling to risk exposing high-value assets while US and Israeli drones maintain full-spectrum surveillance over its territory. Iran's arsenal remains robust, but its operations are being severely constrained by highly effective drone and LEO satellite monitoring from the US and Israel. This massive surveillance effort is reducing Iran's launch rate, not primarily by destroying assets outright, but by making it extremely difficult to operate undetected. Another key point: there has never been air superiority over Tehran itself. Israeli and American aircraft operate mainly by launching from Iraqi territory or western Iran border areas. No B-2 bombers have overflown Iran either, as Iran still maintains operational MiG-29s and Yak-130s. While these are not cutting-edge fighters, they would pose a sufficient threat to deter low-observable bombers like the B-2. Regarding naval losses, Iran has demonstrably lost 8 ships, only 2 of which were modern vessels. Estimates suggest the Iranian navy still operates at least 30 ships overall. The greater long-term threat, hundreds of missile-armed fast attack craft and 25–30 submarines, remains largely intact and unaccounted for in public reporting. As I mentioned in my previous post, US–Israeli bombings will continue to inflict heavy damage on Iran, but they remain far from achieving the stated objectives: complete destruction of the nuclear program or regime change. The trend now is for Iran to intensify efforts to shoot down or disrupt drones overflying its territory in order to regain its earlier launch tempo. However, those drones are also a high priority for the US and Israel, especially since interceptor stocks are running low, making every incoming launch a critical concern. In the end, the costs will reach tens of billions of dollars, global inflation will spike, and none of the primary objectives will have been met. This aligns with the Iran-style model of warfare: make the conflict so expensive and protracted that the opponent eventually collapses under the strain, even if it can technically endure.
Patricia Marins681,904 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce
The Chinese were very well in this tank biathlon , but…
Patricia Marins807,505 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce
The war exposed the collapse of American protection In less than one hour after being hit by the US and Israel, Iran responded with surgical precision, striking 17 American installations across the Middle East. Successive waves of missiles and drones forced US troops to abandon their bases and scramble for shelter in luxury hotels, which, ironically, quickly became targets themselves. It has now been 12 straight days of continuous bombardment, with multiple waves every single day and no sign of fatigue. The strikes are not limited to the bases: they are hammering roads, airports, ports, hotels, and power plants. Evacuation orders exist on paper, but they are being carried out at a snail’s pace, because security is nonexistent and far too many troops are still trapped under fire. Almost no one remains at the American bases anymore. Even the refueling aircraft that operated out of Saudi Arabia have been pulled out and relocated to Germany. The message to the Gulf countries is crystal clear: the US cannot even protect its own bases. You’re on your own. The sense of invincibility that lasted for decades has been shattered. Critical radars destroyed, interceptors running on fumes, bases bombed, Iranian missiles still launching, the Strait of Hormuz still closed, and Gulf allies left completely exposed. All of this is being watched in real time by Asian countries that, until yesterday, were betting everything on American power to contain China. The red light is flashing bright. If the US couldn’t defend the Gulf against Iran… what real chance do they have of protecting anyone against Beijing? Up until February 28, American protection felt absolute. Today it feels like something else entirely. The collapse of that decades-long myth of absolute security is the deepest and most lasting indirect effect of this war.
Patricia Marins627,067 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce
There's no one who doesn't praise the F-22. When the program began, the cost estimates were set at around $34 billion, but they increased exponentially, reaching $64 billion. This may seem high, but it isn't if you consider that in the last 20 years, the United States has wasted over $200 billion on canceled military projects. This is what I will talk about tomorrow.
Patricia Marins916,375 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
Why is this so interesting? Ukrainians have started using this equipment to move around in frontline areas. This is interesting because it’s silent, it helps with micro‑logistics, and, with a lane sensor system, you can be trained to shoot while practicing moving with this equipment.
Patricia Marins838,424 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
It is in the details that we truly understand the real situation. The USS George H.W. Bush and its carrier strike group are currently off the coast of Namibia as they take the long route to avoid the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. If the American CSG is afraid to pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and risk being targeted by the Houthis, what kind of security can possibly be provided to cargo ships? The Houthis’ equipment is of Iranian origin, but inferior to what Iran itself uses. Following this reasoning, how does this force intend to enter the Strait of Hormuz, which is infinitely more challenging? Illustrative video
Patricia Marins510,144 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
People who think aircraft carriers are slow are dead wrong. These massive ships need tremendous power to execute even the simplest maneuvers. And they've always been that way. From World War II to the present day, aircraft carrier speeds haven't changed much at all.
Patricia Marins776,999 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
