Patricia Marins
@pati_marins64 • 404,266 subscribers
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IRAN: War continues and Drone losses seem to worry pentagon Trump knows what he is doing and it has nothing to do with Netanyahu’s good patience, but rather with logistical issues regarding equipment and ammunition. One of these issues refers to drones. Reaper drone losses in 2026 alone already exceed US$ 1 billion, with losses of more than 30 drones, which represents almost 20% of the entire U.S. pre-war Reaper inventory. But if we consider only the operational drones in inventory, this percentage certainly approaches ⅓ of the total pre-war fleet. These stocks were already suffering losses. At least 28 Reaper drones have been shot down in Yemen since the beginning of regional tensions in 2023. The loss of 1 MQ-4 drone was also confirmed, and there are strong suspicions regarding the loss of a second one that allegedly fell into the Gulf sea. Read more:
Patricia Marins160,797 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce
Imagine countless mountain ranges pierced by tunnels, like this one in Lorestan, where trucks enter and disappear inside to unload. There is even a full infrastructure in place so that identical trucks are quickly released and exit through the other side, avoiding any suspicion if the traffic is being monitored by drones. Completely destroying Iran’s military ecosystem is a difficult task and I would say almost impossible. There will always be something, somewhere, still functioning and producing components and missiles.
Patricia Marins171,283 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce
The United States has handed the Chinese an encyclopedia on its military doctrines. The war involving the US and Israel is being monitored and recorded in real time by LEO satellite constellations such as Jilin-1, which are even capable of capturing 4K UHD video. Today, China operates at least three LEO constellations comprising at least 300 satellites dedicated to espionage or dual-use purposes. From the images constantly released about American bases, it is clear that the Chinese are building a true encyclopedia on U.S. naval and air doctrines. Every ship positioning, fiend tactics, refueling time, ammunition resupply, everything is being monitored by Chinese satellites. This includes the exact location and behavior of air defenses, their mapped reaction times, missile trajectories, and reprogramming durations. Nothing escapes the Chinese gaze. In this conflict, they have already mapped and publicly released data on multiple American bases in the region, even identifying the exact number and models of aircraft on the ground. The war against Iran is giving the Chinese something they never had in the Ukrainian theater: the opportunity to study and document American forces in detail. To give you an idea, in 2025 the Chinese recorded a video of Atlanta’s airport purely to demonstrate their capability. I believe the same kind of videos are being produced daily on the American front against Iran. Never in history has a U.S conflict been observed from the skies at this level, both tactically and strategically. The price of the Iran war is high in many ways, as I have always said. And this single episode is giving the Chinese decades of planning and improvement in one go. (Atlanta Airport)
Patricia Marins1,508,979 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Japan has just rendered an entire generation of conventional submarines obsolete, and the world hasn’t fully realized it yet. With the Taigei class and its lithium-ion batteries, Tokyo already set a new benchmark: up to three weeks submerged without ever raising a snorkel. That, however, was merely the opening act. Today, Toyota and Panasonic are leading the global race in solid-state batteries, with prototypes arriving in 2027–2028, mass production after 2030, and Japan’s next submarine class will be the first to use them, either in pure battery form or as a hybrid with a small reactor for onboard recharging. This hybrid would be similar to what the Chineses are developing. The leap is staggering. A 4,000 ton conventional submarine will patrol for 40 to 60 days without surfacing, sprint well above 20 knots for hours on end, and do it all more quietly than many nuclear subs, thanks to being significantly lighter and running solely on battery power. Solid-state cells weigh roughly one-third as much, generate 40 % less heat, and eliminate half the cooling systems. The result is a faster, stealthier hull that can travel thousands of kilometers without ever breaking the surface. Those hundreds of saved tons translate directly into more powerful electric motors, extra torpedoes and missiles, cutting-edge sensors, or greater crew comfort. The same hull now carries twice the energy or twice the weapons. It means that by 2035–2040, Japan will field conventional submarines with the endurance and sprint performance of today’s 8,000-ton nuclear boats, at one-third the cost and without the political baggage of uranium.
Patricia Marins2,730,344 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
Chinese aviation has evolved significantly in recent years, and this is clearly evident in the quality of the aircraft finishes and in the development of new engines. But don’t think this hasn’t made these products more expensive. The J-10C is priced in several contracts even above the F-16 Block 70. And I’d dare say that the J-20 and possibly the J-35 have already entered the price range of some F-35 contracts. Until the Chinese manage to bring these costs down, as they usually do with most of their products, they have to pay the development costs that the Americans have already covered.
Patricia Marins63,844 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce
The US and Israel are carrying out intense bombing raids on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex, which accounts for 85% of the country’s production in this sector. The damage is massive, yet the complex covers 54,000 hectares and would require many days of sustained heavy bombing to achieve its total destruction. Even so, the losses are certainly in the range of tens of billions of dollars in destroyed infrastructure and lost profits.
Patricia Marins668,265 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
It is in the details that we truly understand the real situation. The USS George H.W. Bush and its carrier strike group are currently off the coast of Namibia as they take the long route to avoid the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. If the American CSG is afraid to pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and risk being targeted by the Houthis, what kind of security can possibly be provided to cargo ships? The Houthis’ equipment is of Iranian origin, but inferior to what Iran itself uses. Following this reasoning, how does this force intend to enter the Strait of Hormuz, which is infinitely more challenging? Illustrative video
Patricia Marins509,864 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
An operation planned entirely for a 5-day war As we’ve been discussing over the past few days, the shortage of interceptors is already critical and is directly affecting the United States, Israel, and their allies, who are now openly accusing the U.S. of turning its back on them and prioritizing Israel’s protection instead. Not to mention the failure to evacuate the bases, with soldiers reportedly hiding in hotels in the face of such obvious bombardment in a conflict of this scale. Very soon these countries will be left completely defenseless. In the best-case scenario, there will only be enough ammunition left for another 4 days if Iran returns to its initial pace of attacks. But that’s not even the main concern. In the configuration most oriented toward anti-missile defense, which is almost certainly the loadout of the two Carrier Strike Groups currently stationed in the region, the number of Tomahawks should range between 300 and 500 missiles. Since hundreds have already been expended in the last 3 days, it’s quite possible that no more than 100–150 remain o even less. So, in addition to the interceptor shortage, the Tomahawk inventory is also dropping fast, and they can only be reloaded in port. Although the Navy is working on at-sea reload capability, it is still not operational. Everything was planned for a lightning war that never materialized. Now we’re seeing chaos: soldiers dying, aircraft and drones being shot down, critical shortages of both interceptors and Tomahawks, and none of the main objectives achieved yet. On top of that, only a small portion of those Tomahawks are anti-ship variants, and at least 20 of them have already been used to sink Iranian vessels. Why is this so serious? Iran still operates a navy with more than 30 ships and hundreds of fast attack boats armed with missiles, forces that have not yet entered the fight. Could they simply be shadowing the U.S. fleet and waiting for the American VLS cells to run dry? I’m raising a very real possibility: the United States could soon find itself exposed, lacking land-based missile defenses and with no meaningful firepower left at sea. My impression is that the entire operation was designed for just 5 days of war.
Patricia Marins950,099 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Trump prepares to invade Cuba. Can the island Resist? Following the difficulties encountered in Iran, despite expenditures exceeding $100 billion, Donald Trump is betting on a victory through military action against Cuba. On the 20th, the USS Nimitz and its carrier strike group, which includes the destroyer USS Gridley, officially arrived in the Caribbean. The official justification was that the movement is part of Operation Southern Seas 2026, but U.S. Southern Command emphasized that the presence serves as a strategic advantage and combat readiness. The arrival occurred on the same day the U.S. formally indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for homicide, escalating fears of a military intervention similar to the one in Venezuela months earlier. This aligns with flight tracking data confirming that the U.S. has established a constant surveillance siege of Cuba with MQ-4C Triton drones; at least three of these high-altitude, long-endurance drones were detected operating near the island. At least five P-8A Poseidon aircraft are also participating in patrols, alongside Rivet Joint (RC-135) planes used for electronic eavesdropping to intercept communications and radar signals from Cuban defenses. The Trump administration justified this mobilization by citing intelligence that Cuba had acquired over 300 military drones from Russia and Iran. According to Washington, these drones could be used to attack the Guantanamo base or even U.S. territory, a fanciful claim that rings the alarm for a military operation. The intended action is expected to unfold similarly to what happened in Venezuela, but can Cuba resist? Cuba is going through a difficult period, marked by power outages, a high cost of living, fuel shortages, and low tourism activity, in addition to the strangulation caused by the Trump administration’s embargo. Regarding air defenses, the Cubans recently contracted the Belarusian company ALEVKURP to upgrade their Pechora systems to the S-125-2BM standard, replacing old analog components with modern digital processors. The system can now attack not only aircraft but also land and maritime targets with known coordinates. There have also been improvements to radars for operation under heavy electronic warfare and the capability to track targets using thermal and TV cameras. This allows for firing without turning on the radar, avoiding detection by anti-radiation missiles. Furthermore, the upgrade allows the system to identify drones visually or by heat without emitting radar signals, much like Iranian systems. The Pechora-2BM standard uses radars mounted on high-mobility vehicles; the idea is to activate the radar, fire the missile, and change positions in less than 25 minutes. Despite all these improvements, the Pechora remains a limited system. I would say Cuba will face great difficulty in containing U.S. aviation, but it will force caution upon enemy pilots. The Cuban strategy focuses on being an aerial guerrilla defense: not trying to defeat the U.S. Air Force, but rather increasing the political cost of an invasion by imposing losses. Cuban forces are also betting on Electronic Warfare. They possess many Cold War-era systems that were also recently modernized by Russian and Belarusian companies. Cuba tested these systems to perform spoofing and jamming of satellite signals, generating magnetic anomalies in the Caribbean reported this May 2026. Several mobile EW units are scattered across the island and camouflaged, making it difficult for spy planes and drones to locate them. Full article:
Patricia Marins105,186 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce
Why I say Japanese submarines are so dangerous and quieter than many nuclear submarines Conventional diesel-electric submarines are normally quieter than nuclear ones only at very low speeds, typically up to around 2-7 knots. Above that speed they quickly become noisy, while modern nuclear submarines can maintain excellent stealth up to about 20 knots. The British Astute-class, the Virginia Class and probably the French Suffren-class are said to remain among the quietest submarines in the world even at speeds close to 22-25 knots, behind only of the super quieter SeaWolf. So what does this have to do with Japanese submarines? The latest Japanese Subs represent such a leap in technology that they can stay extremely quiet up to 15 knots or more, a figure that gets remarkably close to modern nuclear submarines and is clearly superior to older nuclear classes. On top of that, these Japanese submarines are equipped with AIP and advanced lithium-ion batteries in the Taigei-class, allowing them to remain submerged for 15–20 days at low speed. When solid-state batteries enter service in the next generation, that endurance will practically double and this is scheduled to happen before 2030. Imagine how many daily patrols an adversary would need to track something that can disappear for weeks and need only few hours to recharge on surface. In regional scenarios (Indo-Pacific, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait), the Japanese strategy is perfectly suited, and maintenance costs are far lower than those of nuclear submarines. It is no coincidence that Israel has become a customer and ordered several of these boats. Submarines are a state of art for Japanese.
Patricia Marins1,448,555 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
The war exposed the collapse of American protection In less than one hour after being hit by the US and Israel, Iran responded with surgical precision, striking 17 American installations across the Middle East. Successive waves of missiles and drones forced US troops to abandon their bases and scramble for shelter in luxury hotels, which, ironically, quickly became targets themselves. It has now been 12 straight days of continuous bombardment, with multiple waves every single day and no sign of fatigue. The strikes are not limited to the bases: they are hammering roads, airports, ports, hotels, and power plants. Evacuation orders exist on paper, but they are being carried out at a snail’s pace, because security is nonexistent and far too many troops are still trapped under fire. Almost no one remains at the American bases anymore. Even the refueling aircraft that operated out of Saudi Arabia have been pulled out and relocated to Germany. The message to the Gulf countries is crystal clear: the US cannot even protect its own bases. You’re on your own. The sense of invincibility that lasted for decades has been shattered. Critical radars destroyed, interceptors running on fumes, bases bombed, Iranian missiles still launching, the Strait of Hormuz still closed, and Gulf allies left completely exposed. All of this is being watched in real time by Asian countries that, until yesterday, were betting everything on American power to contain China. The red light is flashing bright. If the US couldn’t defend the Gulf against Iran… what real chance do they have of protecting anyone against Beijing? Up until February 28, American protection felt absolute. Today it feels like something else entirely. The collapse of that decades-long myth of absolute security is the deepest and most lasting indirect effect of this war.
Patricia Marins625,777 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Will Iran maintain its launch capacity? No, Iran will likely not sustain the same volume of missile launches as it did in the first two days of the war. This helps extend the lifespan of Air Defenses used by the US, Israel, and their allies. Let me explain how this works. During the previous 12-day war, Israel had already mapped many of Iran's launch sites. This time, those sites were among the first to be bombed. Every time Iran conducts a launch, Israeli and American drones equipped with sensors can detect smoke and heat signatures, pinpointing hidden sites. Coordinates are quickly passed on, followed by strikes. This process steadily degrades Iran's capabilities, forcing them to clear debris, reopen tunnel entrances, resume patrols, and repair sites after each attack. Iran is known to operate around 25 underground missile cities, plus about 65 bunkers and tunnels with launch capability (based on what has been publicly identified so far, the real number is likely higher). Iran also operates hundreds of mobile launchers and at least 120 known silos (again, the actual total is probably significantly greater). There is no such thing as a quick war against Iran. Contrary to what some US and Israeli officials are claiming, I do not see evidence of an imminent shortage of Iranian launchers. It would take weeks or even months to fully deplete Iran's stockpile of launchers, which have been built up and accumulated over the past 25–30 years. What is more likely happening is that Iran is unwilling to risk exposing high-value assets while US and Israeli drones maintain full-spectrum surveillance over its territory. Iran's arsenal remains robust, but its operations are being severely constrained by highly effective drone and LEO satellite monitoring from the US and Israel. This massive surveillance effort is reducing Iran's launch rate, not primarily by destroying assets outright, but by making it extremely difficult to operate undetected. Another key point: there has never been air superiority over Tehran itself. Israeli and American aircraft operate mainly by launching from Iraqi territory or western Iran border areas. No B-2 bombers have overflown Iran either, as Iran still maintains operational MiG-29s and Yak-130s. While these are not cutting-edge fighters, they would pose a sufficient threat to deter low-observable bombers like the B-2. Regarding naval losses, Iran has demonstrably lost 8 ships, only 2 of which were modern vessels. Estimates suggest the Iranian navy still operates at least 30 ships overall. The greater long-term threat, hundreds of missile-armed fast attack craft and 25–30 submarines, remains largely intact and unaccounted for in public reporting. As I mentioned in my previous post, US–Israeli bombings will continue to inflict heavy damage on Iran, but they remain far from achieving the stated objectives: complete destruction of the nuclear program or regime change. The trend now is for Iran to intensify efforts to shoot down or disrupt drones overflying its territory in order to regain its earlier launch tempo. However, those drones are also a high priority for the US and Israel, especially since interceptor stocks are running low, making every incoming launch a critical concern. In the end, the costs will reach tens of billions of dollars, global inflation will spike, and none of the primary objectives will have been met. This aligns with the Iran-style model of warfare: make the conflict so expensive and protracted that the opponent eventually collapses under the strain, even if it can technically endure.
Patricia Marins681,050 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Oil production in Iran may have been reduced, but the trolling with LEGOs is at an all-time high.
Patricia Marins440,601 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Iranian Missile Technology: A Leap Ahead of the West Iran has once again struck Israel in retaliation for the death of its leader, resulting in pockets of destruction and casualties in Tel Aviv and its surrounding areas. While Israel appears undeterred, given that the damage to Iranian infrastructure has been immense and arguably far greater than its own, the conflict has hit a technical turning point. Today, Iran deployed Fattah-2 missiles, which are sophisticated Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs). The Footage reveals the projectile’s unique capability to alter its trajectory by igniting a second-stage motor upon reentry into the atmosphere. This level of missile technology is currently not operational in any Western nation. Although Iran's HGV arsenal may be limited in numbers, it showcases an incredibly advanced aerospace industry, a remarkable feat for a country under decades of crippling sanctions. The Fattah-2 HGV can reach speeds of Mach 14(approximately 18,000 km/h) and strike targets with high precision. Its maneuverability makes it virtually immune to modern air defenses and air-to-air missiles. This breakthrough is the culmination of a dedicated, four-decade-long effort by Iran to achieve military and technological sovereignty. Join my Substack:
Patricia Marins503,303 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Is Israel using a base in Azerbaijan to attack Iran again? In the last few hours, the Israeli Air Force released footage showing attacks on Iranian ships and an installation on the Caspian Sea. This brings us right back to the strong suspicion that these flights are taking off from Azerbaijan. The Israeli journalist Ariel Oseran confirmed that the strikes were carried out by fighter jets and not drones. In 2024, Iran already suspected that Azerbaijan might be helping Israel. Then, during the 12-day war in 2025, they gathered evidence and directly confronted Azerbaijan. In 2026 the situation became tense again, with Azerbaijan moving troops to the border. After a few days the tension eased and Azerbaijan sent an amount of humanitarian aid to Iran. But this latest publicized attack leaves Azerbaijan with no explanation. Israeli aircraft do not have the range to reach the Caspian Sea unless they are taking off from Azerbaijan, where they reportedly operate a secret air base, something already reported by the Israeli media. Tensions between the two countries may rise once more.
Patricia Marins456,347 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
The Chinese were very well in this tank biathlon , but…
Patricia Marins807,319 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
