Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape • 175,106 subscribers

UChicago Professor of Political Science directs Chicago Project on Security & Threats, author Bombing To Win and writes substack: The Escalation Trap.

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Robert A. Pape

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Everyone should see this: since “ceasefire” over 75 US logistics flights into the Gulf. Notice how much depends on Europe’s bases. Shows US preparing for more escalation and its global power would decline markedly without Europe.

Iran crossed another escalation threshold. Cluster-munition missiles against Israel. These scatter dozens of submunitions across wide areas — designed for terror. Unavoidable conclusion: Iran is not crushed. It is escalating. The war is entering a far more dangerous phase.

Videos

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Iran making clear, it will not give up Hormuz or enriched uranium for 10+ working nuclear bombs. Iran will soon become 4th world power center. US under big pressure to escalate. Join my live substack briefing at 7pm ET to get ahead of the coming risks

Iranian navy seized the oil tanker "Ocean Koi" in the Gulf of Oman This is Iran’s answer to Trump, effectively: “We control Hormuz— take it if you can” Iran’s power is growing by the day

Everyone should see how the 3 US carriers are positioning for the next round of the Escalation Trap:

Everyone watch senior military advisor to Iran supreme leader’s chilling interview to CNN. He makes clear: Iran wants $24 billion up front and in return… keeps Hormuz &amp; charges “fees” Iran is Trump’s Vietnam, the choice: capitulation or escalation

On Fox, Trump says: “We’re taking the Strait…we’re gonna get paid” Iran vows revenge against Americans worldwide Not even pretense of negotiations Full scale war coming

Multiple signs new US strikes on Iran imminent in the coming days: —leaks of new military briefings to Trump —US hypersonic missiles deployed to Gulf —3 US carriers poised to strike —US-Iran talks going nowhere The Escalation Trap has Trump in its grip

Everyone should see the impossible “scale” problem And why the US is nowhere near victory in opening Hormuz

Iran came out of the bombing more powerful The MOU even as Trump describes it hands Iran even more power Even in the next 60 days. Here’s why #EscalationTrap

Piers Morgan and I discuss why we’re celebrating the deal too early And Iran is now entering its period of maximum leverage

Recently Rick Sanchez and I had a lengthy conversation on the big implications of the Iran war. Here is a key moment:

On The Left Hook with Waj

On The Left Hook with Waj

How could the US underestimate Iran’s drones? Major unanswered question

On The Left Hook with Waj

Who’s really winning the Iran war. The live conversation that explains how Iran is gaining power

On The Left Hook with Waj

Who wins when America bleeds? China, Russia, and Iran

Tremendous live conversation on the Iran war and what to expect as the Escalation Trap gets worse

Trump’s illusion of control in the Iran war

Why leaders around the world should see the frameworks in The Escalation Trap Substack

Everyone watch senior military advisor to Iran supreme leader’s chilling interview to CNN. He makes clear: Iran wants $24 billion up front and in return… keeps Hormuz & charges “fees” Iran is Trump’s Vietnam, the choice: capitulation or escalation