Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI • 1,508,456 subscribers
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
Shorts
Videos
The democratisation of financial intelligence has driven pretty much everything Ive done. For years I paid Bloomberg and Refinitiv to build business cycle indicators and dashboards... then AI arrived and I thought... why not just give it to people? Let them play with it, the same way a generation of investors got used to TradingView and technical analysis. So I built the GMI dashboards on Real Vision myself. Every layer compresses down to one question: what do we need to do now? I walk through all of it in this weeks episode of The Journeyman. Full episode on my YouTube. As ever, please enjoy!
Raoul Pal125,503 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen
The next four years are going to feel very different to anything we've lived through. Your wages havent kept up with the cost of living for years now. That's the Everything Code. Governments have to keep debasing the currency to fund everything, and it's eating into your pay every single year. That part isnt new. What is new is that we have maybe four years before the world as we know it stops working the way it does now. The exponential technologies... AI, robotics, energy, crypto... are moving so fast that the systems built for the old world cant keep up. Politics gets angrier and more divided. You cant trust what you see or hear anymore. Even the idea of running a business stops meaning what it means today. Nobody knows yet what it becomes. This is The Economic Singularity, and The Exponential Age is pulling it towards us faster than anyone is ready for. The window to get ahead of it all is closing.
Raoul Pal211,093 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen
There are now more agents than humans on the internet in the space of 10 months. Wild. That's why I think the Economic Singularity arrives around 2030, faster than I thought. And after that it gets weird. You can still invest, but you'll be competing with agents and markets won't be the same thing anymore. So the next four years really matter... it's the time to get set up while the economy still works the way we recognise. I laid all of it out in The Everything Code, in the clearest way I could, to help as many people as possible navigate this.
Raoul Pal123,778 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen
There isnt enough excess liquidity to fund the AI build out and push crypto at the same time... so it rotates. Weve seen it recently. The AI trade slowed down and Bitcoin went up. This is why tech stocks have had such a big run while crypto has been struggling. From my talk at TOKEN2049 Singapore.
Raoul Pal85,009 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen
Everyone is looking at the roadblocks to AI... not enough energy, not enough data centres, not enough chips... and assuming this is all going to be slow. It isnt. All of that compute gets built in 27. By 28, 29 we have electricity at scale, robots at scale, new chips... at that point the price of everything will collapse. Thats The Economic Singularity... the point where intelligence and labour get so cheap and abundant that the old rules of the economy stop working. The window before all of this hits is miniscule, and it's the best opportunity most of us will ever get. The Everything Code is the roadmap for it... where the liquidity flows, which assets outrun debasement, and what the world looks like on the other side.
Raoul Pal74,120 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen
Volatility is how you understand how risky an asset is so you can size your positions accordingly. Everybody sizes differently depending on their risk tolerance, but the principle is the same... the more volatile the position, the less of it you hold. This is from the workshop I ran at the Real Vision Festival of Trading... two days of workshops from me Jamie Coutts CMT Dale Pinkert The Factor Report Nathan Batchelor Caleb Franzen and many more, all free to watch inside Real Vision with a free account.
Raoul Pal59,379 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen
In the drawdown from last year’s highs, SUI fell about 80%, SOL about 70%, ETH about 60%. Brutal. But the charts missed what was underneath. On all three, economic density didn’t move. Users left, as they always do in a bear market, but the capital each remaining user had deployed stayed exactly where it was... the tourists and the bots went, and the people who stayed kept doing what they’d been doing. I spent a lot of time measuring this: stablecoin float, DeFi TVL and applications shipped per daily user, across every major L1. Why? Because I think it’s the truest measure of longevity there is. Every other L1 I measured lost density along with price. Adoption hadn’t taken hold yet. Doesn’t mean it won’t, but it hasn’t...
Raoul Pal133,777 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen
In the next two or three years, every human could have a hundred... maybe a thousand agents working for them onchain. Arpan Nanavati breaks it down perfectly in this clip... the whole thing is a cost curve. Right now, it costs about $10 a day in inference to run an agent... hedge fund territory. But inference costs have already dropped 100x in three years, and every step down changes who can afford to play: At $1 a day, every protocol is running agents At cents a day, your wallet has agents built in, managing your idle capital At microcents, you get agent swarms Jevons paradox... every time the cost of something collapses, usage explodes. Intelligence is scaling, and theres no reason the number of agents executing onchain cant scale near infinitely. Madness.
Raoul Pal566,335 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
The rails of the agent economy will end up concentrated in a handful of L1s... As agents do more of the transacting, all of that economic activity has to get coordinated somewhere, and very few networks can actually carry it. So your whole job is to figure out which chains are capable of hosting the agent economy... and then just accumulate as much a possible.
Raoul Pal99,470 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen
How do you value a blockchain? Most people try to run a discounted cash flow model on it, like its a company. Ive had that argument plenty of times over the years and its nonsense. Invert it instead. Imagine you switch Ethereum off tomorrow. Every stablecoin on it, all of DeFi, every layer 2, every NFT... all of it goes to zero in an instant. Everything that would disappear is what Ethereum is actually worth. The reason these networks attract so much capital is that they are dense with intelligence. Ethereum has the most developers, its programmable, it has the deepest markets and the whole ecosystem built on top of it. Solana and Sui are faster, cheaper, more efficient, with different feature sets... Turn it off and see what breaks. Thats the valuation.
Raoul Pal69,676 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen
There might be a great trade in bonds right now... and I'm going to reject it because it doesnt match my hypothesis. Governments keep running more debt. That debt gets paid for by debasing the currency, and your savings lose ground to it every year. That's the core of The Everything Code and it makes my job simple... own the assets that outperform debasement. The easy trades are the long-term secular trends in technology and crypto. A bond rally might even help my book through falling rates elsewhere. But a good trade that sits outside your hypothesis is still the wrong trade for you... This week's Journeyman is a recording of the workshop I ran earlier today on Real Vision all about my trading philosophy. As ever, please enjoy!
Raoul Pal79,742 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen
Most agents wont care which chain they're on. vati and I had a great chat about this recently Humans pick chains a bit like football teams... philosophy, ideology, community. But agents dont give a crap about any of that. As Arpan put it, a rational agent will execute on any chain that is, say, 10 milliseconds faster. Play it forward and the chains end up competing on efficiency for machine users. Cheaper, faster rails make it worth running more agents onchain, and more agents push the rails to get cheaper again. More agentic activity onchain makes the whole thing go exponential
Raoul Pal65,868 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen
Demographics, debt, debasement. Three words that drive everything. It starts with an aging population. Fewer workers means slower growth, so governments borrow to keep the economy moving. The debt keeps growing because the demographics leave them no other option. That debt was never going to be paid back. So it gets managed instead... by debasing the currency. More money created every year, each unit worth a little less than the last. Slowly enough that most people never notice. That is The Everything Code. Debasement sets the real hurdle rate for your money, and over the long run only two assets have cleared it... crypto and technology. But thats only the first part of the story. The Exponential Age is where everything goes vertical at once. And the end state is The Economic Singularity, where everything changes. I've never had all of it written down in one place before. Now it's in one book, out November 3rd. Thank you to everyone who has already pre-ordered. If youre going to read it, Id be honoured if youd consider pre-ordering... it helps the rankings, and the rankings are what get the book in front of people who have never heard any of this. Kevin Follonier - MR SHIFT 🦁 thanks for having me on mate, pleasure as always
Raoul Pal69,586 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen
Most stuff in crypto goes to zero because of adoption... A network gets more useful as more people use it, and that usefulness pulls in the next wave of users. Persistent attention keeps that loop running long enough to matter. But we don't see that persistence in many things. I wrote up my full thoughts on this today: why most chains die, and how to weed out the survivors. As ever, please enjoy!
Raoul Pal80,516 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen
The NASDAQ is 97.5% correlated to total global liquidity. It has almost nothing to do with earnings or how good the companies are, and everything to do with how much money the world's central banks are printing. The small slice that liquidity doesn't explain is the NASDAQ's own adoption curve sitting on top. This is why everyone keeps saying equities are expensive. They're using a measure that stopped working the moment we started debasing currency. A high valuation doesn't really tell you a company is doing well anymore, it tells you how much money has been printed. This is the heart of my Everything Code framework. Once you understand that liquidity is the key driver of all asset prices, the market stops behaving like a mystery and starts running like clockwork.
Raoul Pal664,092 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
The cost of intelligence is collapsing. The cost of energy is collapsing. The cost of a token, the cost of a watt, the amount of intelligence you get out of every unit of energy... all of it is falling at once. And cheaper is what makes the whole thing go exponential. Jevons paradox... make something cheaper and the world finds a thousand new uses for it. Every time intelligence gets cheaper, we use more of it, which pays for the next round of getting cheaper. Wrights Law and Metcalfes Law running into each other. We're at the very start of that and AI is already building AI... Play it forward a few turns of the wheel and the speed of it goes beyond anything we can picture... intelligence being used in volumes we cant imagine, to build things we haven't even dreamed up yet.
Raoul Pal108,082 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen
The next crypto cycle won't be driven by humans. It'll be driven by billions of AI agents transacting 24/7. I sat down with Ran Neuner to explore why this is the first real bull market, and why the convergence of AI and blockchain is the bigger opportunity. As ever, please enjoy!
Raoul Pal133,282 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen
Data centres are going to eat all the electricity and you'll be left eating stale bread in the street, begging for the water they use... Thats the political narrative building right now and every part of that gets the direction wrong. Agents are billions of new economic participants added on top of us. They run 24/7 at silicon speed, and every one of them is demanding something... data, compute, storage, energy, tokens. Demand is about to go through the roof. That is the Economic Singularity... synthetic labour removing the old limits on growth, and GDP as we measure it stops meaning anything. The real fear underneath is that somebody else makes all the money. Except for the first time in history, unlike the internet, the substrate is ownable by everybody. All that activity has to coordinate on the L1s. So own the fucking rails.
Raoul Pal126,338 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen
If you’re sweating short time horizons you’re fucking everything up. Crypto hasn't been through a cycle. A cycle needs liquidity to drive it, and what we got was liquidity being dampened while a massive bull market ran in something else. The actual driver hasn't changed. Central banks and the banking system have to keep financing interest payments by issuing money to offset the ageing population. That is The Everything Code. It’s been playing out like this for decades and it doesnt care about your quarter. Own Nasdaq, own crypto, go to the beach.
Raoul Pal207,702 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
CZ said it better than anyone: "The currency for AI is crypto. AI is not gonna swipe a card, enter an SMS code. That doesn't work for AI." That was our conversation at Token2049 in Dubai last year. Every month since has made it truer... more agents arriving, all needing to hold value, receive value and move it without a person in the loop. Think about what those payments actually look like. Instant and tiny, thousands of them a second, between counterparties that are not human. Two day bank settlement doesn't work for that. Card rails don't work for that. Theres only one set of rails on earth built for that. Its staggeringly clear.
Raoul Pal308,473 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten