Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI • 1,448,832 subscribers
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
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Most of the market is priced for a world that's coming to an end. Traditional software, legacy platforms, much of the SaaS layer of the S&P 500… all built on the assumption that humans will remain the primary customers. AI agents don't buy software the way we do. They don't need dashboards, subscriptions, or logins. And once the buyer changes, so does everything built around them. The investable opportunity ahead is the agentic economy… what gets built for agents as customers. That's where the next wave of capital ends up, and most people aren't positioned for it.
Raoul Pal199,203 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
People say AI is expensive. Let me break it down. I pay $200 a month for Claude and get PhD-level intelligence on every subject known to humanity. Now price a human. Globally, on average, maybe $10,000 a year in food to run one brain. Plus the twenty odd years it takes to grow it first. So it's $10,000 a year for human-level compute, versus $200 a month for intelligence that clears any human on any topic. That's why it's scaling this fast. The price of human intelligence is just uneconomical compared to machines.
Raoul Pal177,483 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
People are so concerned about AI taking their job that they can’t see the massive opportunity right in front of them. The economy that's coming won't run on wages. It'll run on infrastructure. Agents will do the work, generate value, and settle the transactions, and all of that activity will live on top of a small number of layer 1 blockchains. Own that layer, and you own a piece of everything they produce. For the first time in history, anyone with an internet connection can put 10% of their income into the same asset class as a sovereign wealth fund. This is humanity's pension plan in the post-AGI world… a way to participate in the invisible economy that's being built right now. Owning the rails is how you unfuck your future.
Raoul Pal109,707 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
People can't conceive of how fast this is coming. Look at just the last few years of AI. It's moved faster than we can legislate, faster than we can debate, faster than any institution was built to handle. And that's the slow part. It only accelerates from here. That's a huge elephant in the room. Shifts this big would normally go through a democratic process. People debate it, it works its way through… But that takes decades. And we don't have decades. When the ground moves this fast and process can't keep up, governments reach for whatever knob they have. And control tends to get more centralised, not because anyone wants it, but because the democratic process simply isn't fast enough to catch what's coming. This is the part of the Economic Singularity nobody wants to look at. It isn't just markets and machines moving to a speed we can't follow. It's our whole system of governing arriving too late. I sat down with Peter H. Diamandis, MD and Salim Ismail to go over how the next few years play out. As ever, please enjoy.
Raoul Pal89,189 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
Why would you ever sell anything? We are living through the fastest acceleration of technology in all of human history. The financial system is being rebuilt on crypto rails: agentic identity, robotic identity, human identity, all of it moving onchain. And yet people are still trying to time it. Selling because someone somewhere thinks the liquidity cycle might soften for a bit is bananas. You don't time a technology adoption cycle. You accumulate through it. Every drawdown is a chance to own more of the base layer of the next economy. The one job is to stay in. Julien Bittel, CFA and I got into all of this on The Journey Man. As ever, please enjoy!
Raoul Pal287,308 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen
The biggest marketplace on Earth won't be the assets humans own. It'll be the data AI needs. Everything that can be digitised is getting pulled in to train the next models. Every scientific dataset, every piece of research sitting in a university, every sensor reading off every John Deere tractor in a field. All of it feeds the machine, and almost none of it is visible to us. What comes out is an agentic economy running at machine speed. You plug your data into a vault, and agents monetise it on your behalf, trading with other agents in real time, in a marketplace we never see. The company sitting on proprietary data becomes part of it without even knowing. This is what the Economic Singularity actually looks like from the inside. The real economy stops being the one we can see and price, and moves somewhere we can't follow. You own a piece of it, or you get priced out of it. Jordi Visser.
Raoul Pal76,018 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen
We're about to see a Cambrian explosion of new participants in financial markets and across the entire digital economy. That tells me every TAM in everything digital on this planet is wrong… We built every benchmark on human activity... how fast Facebook scaled, how fast OpenAI scaled, human eyes, human clicks, human speed. That's been the yardstick. And it's about to be useless. The new participants aren't human. They replicate at speed, communicate at speed, and don't even read the same websites we do. They don't need to. So it compounds faster and faster and faster, at a speed we can't see. We're about to lose the ability to measure anything at all.
Raoul Pal120,977 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen
Most workers won't be human by 2030. The economy we've been living in was built at biological speed. The same world is now being overrun by AI agents that operate a million times faster than we do. That's what I call the economic singularity… the point where what we've built stops being able to absorb what's happening, because the speed differential is too large to translate. Economics, politics, all of it was designed for a species that's about to lose its cognitive edge. We're already seeing the signs. AI now produces more words in a year than every human on Earth combined, and by 2028, it will produce more words than all of humanity has ever written since the Gutenberg press. Humans will no longer be the apex intelligence on this planet, and almost nobody is ready for it.
Raoul Pal140,055 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen
By 2032 or 2034, crypto crosses $100 trillion. For context... there's about $800 trillion of assets in the world right now. Gold is $30 trillion, global M2 is $80 trillion. The entire digital asset space is $3.5 trillion. Adoption has followed the same log regression channel for over a decade. Forward-project it and you land at $100 trillion by the early 2030s. That's $97 trillion of new wealth in under a decade. More than every Russian billionaire, US tech billionaire, and finance and real estate billionaire on earth, combined. I've been saying this for years. This is how you unfuck your future.
Raoul Pal242,315 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen
The NASDAQ is 97.5% correlated to total global liquidity. It has almost nothing to do with earnings or how good the companies are, and everything to do with how much money the world's central banks are printing. The small slice that liquidity doesn't explain is the NASDAQ's own adoption curve sitting on top. This is why everyone keeps saying equities are expensive. They're using a measure that stopped working the moment we started debasing currency. A high valuation doesn't really tell you a company is doing well anymore, it tells you how much money has been printed. This is the heart of my Everything Code framework. Once you understand that liquidity is the key driver of all asset prices, the market stops behaving like a mystery and starts running like clockwork.
Raoul Pal659,531 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen
It’s the biggest game we’ve ever played. AI is the last technology we'll ever discover, because every wave that follows will come out of it. And whoever owns the frontier doesn't just own an industry… they own the machinery that produces everything else. That's why no government can slow this down even if it wanted to. Take a step back, and the other side ends up with all the intelligence on the planet. That isn't something you’d hand to a rival. So the whole thing coalesces into a two-way race between the US and China, and every other country either picks a side or gets left behind. It's the game of nations at its highest stakes, and it's already in motion. Peter H. Diamandis, MD Salim Ismail Real Vision
Raoul Pal123,778 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen
The biggest problem humanity faces is that we're running out of people. Sounds insane, I know. Fewer people means fewer mouths to feed, more resources to go around, and less pressure on the planet. All true, until you follow it through. GDP is driven by demographics. A smaller workforce means a lower ceiling on output, and we're already carrying more debt than we can service. So governments are left with one question. How do you grow when there's no one left to do the work? There's only one answer. Robots and AI. That's why the Exponential Age is arriving faster than anyone forecast, not through choice but through necessity.
Raoul Pal245,100 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen
Crypto wasn’t invented for the age we came from. When Satoshi launched Bitcoin, we thought we were building a hedge against banks. Digital gold, permissionless money for humans who couldn't access banks. All true. But the humans found it hard. Keys, custody, UX... none of it felt natural. Turns out we were building the base layer for something else entirely. Agents don't struggle with keys, and smart contracts are native to machines. Every UX problem we've spent years trying to solve was a problem because the users hadn't arrived yet. Now they have. The agentic economy needs money that moves at its speed, and crypto is the only system that does. Had the greatest time sitting down with Erik Voorhees a few weeks ago to dig into where crypto fits in the agentic world. As ever, please enjoy!
Raoul Pal288,221 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen
AI has started building its own successors. It's happening right now. Humans still kick most of it off, but the models are already training the next models, and each version builds a better version faster than the last. We know what happens when something gets an advantage and the substrate is there... it proliferates incredibly fast. Soon it just runs the whole process itself. People are still debating whether AI takes your job. That's not the question. You can't compete with this intelligence at all. Next to it the human is negative value, the slowest one in the room. And this is the slowest it will ever move again. It's about to run on its own, faster than we can conceive of, and nobody's prepared for that. Wonderful conversation as ever with Emad.
Raoul Pal63,554 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen
The biggest disinflationary shock in history is close. AI and robotics aren't just filling the productivity gap left by an aging workforce. They're pulling down the cost of everything at the same time. You can already see it. A few years ago you'd rarely see an autonomous vehicle outside a handful of test cities... now they run commercial fleets across the US, coming for rideshare and taxis. Every one of them is a driver who doesn't sleep, unionise, or ask for a raise. When China joined the WTO it flooded the world with cheap labour and held inflation down for two decades. What's coming now is far bigger. People are accepting it faster than any technology in history, and the reason is simple. There is no other choice.
Raoul Pal146,618 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen
AI is the single greatest innovation in human history. The only thing that comes close is splitting the atom. Every economic system we've ever built runs on the scarcity of knowledge. Lawyers, doctors, experts of every kind… they get paid because what they know is scarce. With AI, knowledge is now infinite. That breaks everything. Our entire economic model, as well as our understanding of what humans do, and what we're for. This is the Exponential Age. I've been mapping this out for years across Real Vision and GMI, piecing it together as it unfolded. Today I wrote a full breakdown that pulls it all into one place. Link below.
Raoul Pal171,175 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen
Every institution has always run at the speed of its people. Boards, funds, governments... they moved as fast as humans could talk, argue and vote. That ceiling is starting to come off. Abu Dhabi is running AI on its investment committees. Corporations are using it in boardrooms. The logic is always the same... it's faster, it sees more, and it doesn't bring emotion into the decision. Governments will hold out longest. They always do. But they'll follow, because anyone competing against an institution that runs on AI, without one of their own, simply loses. The machines already have a seat at the table in everything but name. So the real question is what happens when we give them one for real.
Raoul Pal92,821 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen
Everything in the economy runs on the same input. Compute, AI, robotics, manufacturing, transport... it's all energy underneath. That matters now because of demographics. Fewer workers every year means the economy only grows if output per head grows fast, and the engine for that is the Exponential Age... AI and robotics doing the work people used to. But all of that runs on energy. So the cost of energy is the ceiling on the whole thing. That's why the EU, Japan, China, the US and the UK are all moving at the same time. If we can take the cost of energy to near zero, GDP per capita stops being hostage to the price of a barrel of oil. That's the way out of this mess.
Raoul Pal121,933 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen
Diversification is dead. I know that goes against everything you've been taught, but hear me out. Global governments and central banks are increasing liquidity to manage debt at 8% a year. That's the hidden devaluation of fiat currency you don't see. Add inflation on top and you've got an 11% hurdle rate. If your investments aren't hitting 11%, you are getting poorer.
Raoul Pal198,346 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen