Samuel Doveri Vesterbye
@SamuelJsdv • 14,705 subscribers
Director @ENC_Europe | Author of Security Threats along EU’s 🇪🇺 Eastern Flanks (Palgrave: London) | #CentralAsia #Caucasus #Türkiye #MENA #Balkans | Indep. |
Videos
![What’s behind #GeoPolitical developments this week & #Zelenskyy’s 🇺🇦 terrible visit to 🇺🇸 Washington👇 🔸 #Ukraine 🇺🇦 President Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 signs (and un-signs apparently) a preliminary mineral agreement with US 🇺🇸, but #Trump 🇺🇸 does not provide security guarantees in return casting doubts over relationship. 🔸The press meeting is a PR disaster for Ukraine 🇺🇦 and highly humiliating for Zelenskyy 🇺🇦. 🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 and #France 🇫🇷 now appear to be indirectly competing over support for #Ukraine 🇺🇦. They are both offering to put boots on the ground and to be guarantors, provided that America supply some logistical help and intel, while the UK 🇬🇧 and Germany 🇩🇪 could be co-supporters. 🔸Türkiye 🇹🇷 met with a British security delegation yesterday, while simultaneously meeting with Russian officials and delegations. 🔸#Macron 🇫🇷🇪🇺 and #Merz 🇩🇪🇪🇺 had dinner together last night, while Berlin and Paris have entered a new phase of highest level military, industrial and intelligence cooperation. 🔸Here’s the problem: Russia 🇷🇺 doesn’t want Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺, US 🇺🇸nor UK 🇬🇧anywhere near Kiev 🇺🇦, while Paris 🇫🇷🇪🇺and Ankara 🇹🇷 are perceived slightly more neutral. 🔸In addition, Trump 🇺🇸 remains unconvinced about supporting Europeans in providing security guarantees. 🔸Trump intelligently waits for Ankara, Paris and London to become - seperately - more desperate so that they start to outbid each other, while #Washington gains the negotiation-upper-hand from them on other policy portfolios like Syria 🇸🇾, energy-LNG etc. 🔸 This is where the negotiations get interesting, since each country (Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Türkiye 🇹🇷, France/Germany 🇪🇺 and UK 🇬🇧) travel to Washington to offer different deals or formulas to Trump in order to establish a peaceful solution in Ukraine 🇺🇦 which also protects their own interests and increases their regional geo-economic and geo-political ambitions. 🔸It’s clear (especially after tonight) that Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 is lowest on the food chain at the moment. Starmer 🇬🇧 is also very dependent on Trump and Four Eyes, therefore also making the UK 🇬🇧 weak. Macron 🇫🇷🇪🇺 and Erdogan 🇹🇷 are the only two European powers in positions of strength as both have channels to Russia 🇷🇺 , China 🇨🇳 and #India 🇮🇳(Türkiye less so) which provide a counterweight to Trump 🇺🇸. Paris 🇫🇷🇪🇺 is a nuclear power ☢️🚀 and now has Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺 under its wing, since Merz was elected. Increasingly this applies for Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺, Baltics🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇺, Nordics 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴🇪🇺, Spain 🇪🇸🇪🇺, Portugal 🇵🇹🇪🇺 and others 🇪🇺. 🔸Highest on the “Trump food chain” is Israel 🇮🇱, at odds with Ankara 🇹🇷, and also in coordination with Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦. Erdogan 🇹🇷 is in a semi-vulnerable situation: if he only aims for Syria 🇸🇾 stability he may loose his ambitions in #CentralAsia, #Caucasus or the #Gulf, while the Eastern Mediterranean tensions could be brewing, which risk putting at peril Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 natural economic and geo-strategic home: Continental Europe 🇪🇺. [END].](https://image.24vids.com/tw-1895543153530151017/amplify_video_thumb/1895540104828968960/img/PICuL7RTX6eOzdst.jpg)
What’s behind #GeoPolitical developments this week & #Zelenskyy’s 🇺🇦 terrible visit to 🇺🇸 Washington👇 🔸 #Ukraine 🇺🇦 President Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 signs (and un-signs apparently) a preliminary mineral agreement with US 🇺🇸, but #Trump 🇺🇸 does not provide security guarantees in return casting doubts over relationship. 🔸The press meeting is a PR disaster for Ukraine 🇺🇦 and highly humiliating for Zelenskyy 🇺🇦. 🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 and #France 🇫🇷 now appear to be indirectly competing over support for #Ukraine 🇺🇦. They are both offering to put boots on the ground and to be guarantors, provided that America supply some logistical help and intel, while the UK 🇬🇧 and Germany 🇩🇪 could be co-supporters. 🔸Türkiye 🇹🇷 met with a British security delegation yesterday, while simultaneously meeting with Russian officials and delegations. 🔸#Macron 🇫🇷🇪🇺 and #Merz 🇩🇪🇪🇺 had dinner together last night, while Berlin and Paris have entered a new phase of highest level military, industrial and intelligence cooperation. 🔸Here’s the problem: Russia 🇷🇺 doesn’t want Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺, US 🇺🇸nor UK 🇬🇧anywhere near Kiev 🇺🇦, while Paris 🇫🇷🇪🇺and Ankara 🇹🇷 are perceived slightly more neutral. 🔸In addition, Trump 🇺🇸 remains unconvinced about supporting Europeans in providing security guarantees. 🔸Trump intelligently waits for Ankara, Paris and London to become - seperately - more desperate so that they start to outbid each other, while #Washington gains the negotiation-upper-hand from them on other policy portfolios like Syria 🇸🇾, energy-LNG etc. 🔸 This is where the negotiations get interesting, since each country (Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Türkiye 🇹🇷, France/Germany 🇪🇺 and UK 🇬🇧) travel to Washington to offer different deals or formulas to Trump in order to establish a peaceful solution in Ukraine 🇺🇦 which also protects their own interests and increases their regional geo-economic and geo-political ambitions. 🔸It’s clear (especially after tonight) that Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 is lowest on the food chain at the moment. Starmer 🇬🇧 is also very dependent on Trump and Four Eyes, therefore also making the UK 🇬🇧 weak. Macron 🇫🇷🇪🇺 and Erdogan 🇹🇷 are the only two European powers in positions of strength as both have channels to Russia 🇷🇺 , China 🇨🇳 and #India 🇮🇳(Türkiye less so) which provide a counterweight to Trump 🇺🇸. Paris 🇫🇷🇪🇺 is a nuclear power ☢️🚀 and now has Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺 under its wing, since Merz was elected. Increasingly this applies for Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺, Baltics🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇺, Nordics 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴🇪🇺, Spain 🇪🇸🇪🇺, Portugal 🇵🇹🇪🇺 and others 🇪🇺. 🔸Highest on the “Trump food chain” is Israel 🇮🇱, at odds with Ankara 🇹🇷, and also in coordination with Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦. Erdogan 🇹🇷 is in a semi-vulnerable situation: if he only aims for Syria 🇸🇾 stability he may loose his ambitions in #CentralAsia, #Caucasus or the #Gulf, while the Eastern Mediterranean tensions could be brewing, which risk putting at peril Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 natural economic and geo-strategic home: Continental Europe 🇪🇺. [END].
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye185,631 次观看 • 1 年前
Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 closes Belarus-Polish 🇵🇱🇪🇺🇧🇾 border & terminates 30 daily Chinese 🇨🇳 freight trains worth over €25 billion in trade. As the #NorthernCorridor ends, the #MiddleCorridor will likely expand👇 ✅ Military exercises (Zapad 2025 🇧🇾🇷🇺) & drone attack by Russia 🇷🇺 on Polish/EU territory pushes Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 to close it’s borders with Belarus 🇧🇾 for security reasons. ✅ On an average day in 2025 approximately 25-30 freight trains carrying cargo from China 🇨🇳 arrive at or cross the Polish-Belarus 🇵🇱🇪🇺🇧🇾 border (primarily at the Brest-Terespol/Małaszewicze crossing point). ✅ The shutdown of the border has halted all rail traffic, including 🇨🇳 China-origin trains, leading to significant backlogs of westbound trains on the Belarusian 🇧🇾 side. ✅ This rail route handled freight volume as part of broader China-Europe Railway Express (Belt & Road Initiative) representing 90% of all Chinese 🇨🇳 land-exports to Europe 🇪🇺. ✅ Trains departed from major Chinese hubs (e.g. Xi'an, Chongqing, Yiwu, Zhengzhou) via Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 and Russia 🇷🇺 entering Belarus 🇧🇾 at Orsha and reaching Brest. Due to differing track gauges (Russian/Soviet 🇷🇺 system broad gauge in Belarus vs. standard European gauge in Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺) cargo was transshipped at terminals like Małaszewicze before continuing to destinations in Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Netherlands 🇳🇱🇪🇺, Belgium 🇧🇪🇪🇺 and rest of EU. ✅ This border is main EU 🇪🇺 entry point for 90% of China-Europe rail freight with transit times from China averaging 12-18 days. ✅ Volume Data for 2025: China-Europe rail freight reached 19.000 annual trips in 2024 (a 10% year-on-year increase from 2023) carrying 2.07 million TEUs valued at €25 billion. ✅ Projections and early 2025 data indicate continued growth to 21.000-22.000 trips annually, driven by demand for electronics, machinery and consumer goods. ✅ The advantage of rail - to date - has been speed and avoidance of maritime blocks/disruptions (Suez/Red Sea). Maritime freight East to West takes 30-40+ days whereas train could take as little as 12 days. If the closure continues at Belarusian-Polish border, it will push trade through the #TransCaspianCorridor #MiddleCorridor. ✅ #InvestorForum in November this year will increase in importance due to infrastructural investors and logistics needs being amplified (rail, road & sea) both in terms of containerisation and critical infrastruture along Caspian to hedge and diversify trade routes into Caucasus 🇦🇿🇦🇲🇬🇪, Black Sea 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇴🇧🇬 and Türkiye 🇹🇷. ✅ As trade routes increasingly get closer down or blocked due to political, conflict & natural reasons, the EU & it’s partners continue to protect the “open and free navigation and exportation of goods and services”. Links 🔗 • • •
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye28,339 次观看 • 9 个月前
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