What’s behind #GeoPolitical developments this week & #Zelenskyy’s 🇺🇦 terrible visit to 🇺🇸 Washington👇 🔸 #Ukraine 🇺🇦 President Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 signs (and un-signs apparently) a preliminary mineral agreement with US 🇺🇸, but #Trump 🇺🇸 does not provide security guarantees in return casting doubts over relationship. 🔸The press meeting is... a PR disaster for Ukraine 🇺🇦 and highly humiliating for Zelenskyy 🇺🇦. 🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 and #France 🇫🇷 now appear to be indirectly competing over support for #Ukraine 🇺🇦. They are both offering to put boots on the ground and to be guarantors, provided that America supply some logistical help and intel, while the UK 🇬🇧 and Germany 🇩🇪 could be co-supporters. 🔸Türkiye 🇹🇷 met with a British security delegation yesterday, while simultaneously meeting with Russian officials and delegations. 🔸#Macron 🇫🇷🇪🇺 and #Merz 🇩🇪🇪🇺 had dinner together last night, while Berlin and Paris have entered a new phase of highest level military, industrial and intelligence cooperation. 🔸Here’s the problem: Russia 🇷🇺 doesn’t want Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺, US 🇺🇸nor UK 🇬🇧anywhere near Kiev 🇺🇦, while Paris 🇫🇷🇪🇺and Ankara 🇹🇷 are perceived slightly more neutral. 🔸In addition, Trump 🇺🇸 remains unconvinced about supporting Europeans in providing security guarantees. 🔸Trump intelligently waits for Ankara, Paris and London to become - seperately - more desperate so that they start to outbid each other, while #Washington gains the negotiation-upper-hand from them on other policy portfolios like Syria 🇸🇾, energy-LNG etc. 🔸 This is where the negotiations get interesting, since each country (Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Türkiye 🇹🇷, France/Germany 🇪🇺 and UK 🇬🇧) travel to Washington to offer different deals or formulas to Trump in order to establish a peaceful solution in Ukraine 🇺🇦 which also protects their own interests and increases their regional geo-economic and geo-political ambitions. 🔸It’s clear (especially after tonight) that Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 is lowest on the food chain at the moment. Starmer 🇬🇧 is also very dependent on Trump and Four Eyes, therefore also making the UK 🇬🇧 weak. Macron 🇫🇷🇪🇺 and Erdogan 🇹🇷 are the only two European powers in positions of strength as both have channels to Russia 🇷🇺 , China 🇨🇳 and #India 🇮🇳(Türkiye less so) which provide a counterweight to Trump 🇺🇸. Paris 🇫🇷🇪🇺 is a nuclear power ☢️🚀 and now has Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺 under its wing, since Merz was elected. Increasingly this applies for Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺, Baltics🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇺, Nordics 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴🇪🇺, Spain 🇪🇸🇪🇺, Portugal 🇵🇹🇪🇺 and others 🇪🇺. 🔸Highest on the “Trump food chain” is Israel 🇮🇱, at odds with Ankara 🇹🇷, and also in coordination with Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦. Erdogan 🇹🇷 is in a semi-vulnerable situation: if he only aims for Syria 🇸🇾 stability he may loose his ambitions in #CentralAsia, #Caucasus or the #Gulf, while the Eastern Mediterranean tensions could be brewing, which risk putting at peril Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 natural economic and geo-strategic home: Continental Europe 🇪🇺. [END].show more

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

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