SecureZero
@securezer0 • 5,805 subscribers
Arbitrage Opinion ⇄ Kalshi ⇄ Polymarket with https://t.co/ZONuKpwiea Trading Bot.
Shorts
![This is what Polymarket Arbitrage looks like [ SPED UP ] Watch as AlertPilot Arbitrageurs bid YES / NO to collect +EV as spread opens and closes The strategy is simple: 2 markets, same outcome, different platform, different odds. No bots, all manual!](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2011505459589697924/amplify_video_thumb/2011505080324005888/img/kzAWw3nhzFoFGgY1.jpg)
Videos
![Just finished a huge UPGRADE to my Polymarket Arbitrage Trading Bot 📈 $41,514 +EV - [ Right Now] ✳️ 1,032% Spread - [ Right Now] #⃣ 3X More Arbitrage Opportunities I had to break a lot of rules to get this to work, If Polymarket finds out I might be in trouble... But it was worth it! I was able to bypass the restrictions that are holding back other Arbitrage Trading Bots Here’s how it all works... MARKET MATCHING The bot is looking for arbitrages across 5 different Prediction Markets To do that we are indexing millions of individual markets To try to find the few thousand functionally identical pairs between platforms That's billions of potential matches To find the few thousand market pairs that are functionally equivalent between platforms we are using a four part matching system: 1. Keyword extraction, ranking & matching 2. Trigram, Jaccard & Vector hybrid matching algorithm of the market titles, close conditions, alternative titles & outcomes 3. LLM Prompt matching checking for functional equivalence of market rules -> Incredibly inconsistent, hence the need for part 4, building a system like this at scale will open your eyes to the shortcomings of AI 4. Human verification + 99.8% Accuracy + 6,320 Markets Matched Once we have our markets, we move onto.. ARBITRAGE DETECTION - [ UPGRADED ] To detect if there is an arbitrage we need two things Market Odds & Orderbooks Market Odds: This will show us the ‘Spread’, if the sum of Market A YES & Market B NO is less than $1, or vice versa, we have a potential arbitrage Orderbooks: This will show us the "EV", much we can arbitrage profit we can extract, according to the available liquidity and slippage of both orderbooks This is where we had been severely limited in the past, due to inadequacies of the WebSocket feeds and API rate limits Polymarket: Orderbook initial dumps & entire orderbook price levels missing when connecting hundreds of markets to the WS feed, undisclosed multi-WS rate limits Opinion: API rate limits, WS delta updates missing, WS delta updates sent in wrong order, asks sent below best bid, airdrop farming bots posting and filling their own orders breaking WS feed. Kalshi: Rate limits and minor book inaccuracies at scale PredictFun & Probable: Surprisingly accurate as of current, monitoring how they handle increasing volumes To get past these limits and scale the Arbitrage Finder we built some advanced new systems 1. Multiple Instances Instead of scaling vertically we moved to scaling horizontally, a central controller handles the deployment & management of multiple proxied worker instances that each keep a local record of a subset of the market orderbooks and detect arbitrage opportunities as soon as dif updates are received These worker instances feed the orderbook data back to the main controller which aggregates all information in one place and formats along them with relevant metadata to be fetched by our trading interfaces and applications 2. Handling “Junk Data” One of the most challenging parts of scaling this application is dealing with the inaccuracies of the data provided by the APIs that we refer to as ‘Junk Data’ Some are easy to deal with: - Book updates returned in the wrong order required an additional ‘lastTimestamp’ value at each book level which was referenced before any future updates are applied, if diff update timestamp was prior to lastTimestamp the dif update is ignored. - Missing book dumps / levels reduced almost entirely by reducing the number of CLOB tokens per WS connection - Dif ask/bid flips appearing at impossible levels are not applied Some were a lot more challenging: - Missing book updates were only detectable with revalidation & comparison, we don’t know what we don't know until we know we don't know it. More complex revalidation triggers and short recycling periods minimize the issue With these updates we can scale the number of local orderbooks we are handling at one time: Before: ~4,000 orderbooks After: ~10,000 orderbooks This, along with the improvements in orderbook accuracy, has increased arb density by 3X Meaning we’re finding 3X the amount of opportunities as before 3. Rate limit bypass To bypass the API limits that limit the quantity of markets we can subscribe to at once we had to ██████ ███ █ ██████ █████ █████████ TRADING SYSTEMS - [ NEW ] The data is only as good as you can display it, ultimately the format in which the data is served will determine how efficiently it can be acted upon We’ve created a system of interconnected tools that enable us to trade these opportunities, each with a different specific use case 1. AlertPilot Trading Terminal A dashboard displaying all the hundreds of arbitrage opportunities the bot has found across 5 different prediction markets in real time + Arbitrage Calculator, showing you exactly how much to bid to take advantage of the arbitrage according to your bankroll, fees & slippage + Double Price Chart, which helps traders to estimate how long their arbitrage take to close + Strategy Guide, explaining how to execute arbitrage trades most effectively to maximize profits + Position Manager, connect your wallets to see your open arbitrage positions, EV, profits & exits 2. AlertPilot Telegram Bot A system for getting alerts on all new arbitrage opportunities immediately, EV, Spreads & market links + Custom Settings, only see the arbitrages you’d want to take with user specific settings + Position Sell Alerts, connected to the AlertPilot Position Manager, get alerts to your phone when its time to sell your arbitrage positions + All 5 Markets, alerts on all 5 supported prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, Probable & PredictFun 3. AlertPilot Discord Bot Private chat rooms and arbitrage alerts on the AlertPilot Discord Group + Custom Alerts, the best arbitrage alerts are sent to the discord channel + Support, traders answering your questions on Arbitrage Trading 4. Arbitrage Trading Terminal [ SOON ] A trading terminal built specifically for Arbitrage + Atomic Execution, enter positions on two platforms at the same time + Visualize the Arbitrage, trade with both charts in one place, see the gap close as you take your positions + Manage positions across multiple prediction markets in one place](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2026018560112496857/amplify_video_thumb/2025965629879336960/img/rZKwoiFtxbpy426d.jpg)
Just finished a huge UPGRADE to my Polymarket Arbitrage Trading Bot 📈 $41,514 +EV - [ Right Now] ✳️ 1,032% Spread - [ Right Now] #⃣ 3X More Arbitrage Opportunities I had to break a lot of rules to get this to work, If Polymarket finds out I might be in trouble... But it was worth it! I was able to bypass the restrictions that are holding back other Arbitrage Trading Bots Here’s how it all works... MARKET MATCHING The bot is looking for arbitrages across 5 different Prediction Markets To do that we are indexing millions of individual markets To try to find the few thousand functionally identical pairs between platforms That's billions of potential matches To find the few thousand market pairs that are functionally equivalent between platforms we are using a four part matching system: 1. Keyword extraction, ranking & matching 2. Trigram, Jaccard & Vector hybrid matching algorithm of the market titles, close conditions, alternative titles & outcomes 3. LLM Prompt matching checking for functional equivalence of market rules -> Incredibly inconsistent, hence the need for part 4, building a system like this at scale will open your eyes to the shortcomings of AI 4. Human verification + 99.8% Accuracy + 6,320 Markets Matched Once we have our markets, we move onto.. ARBITRAGE DETECTION - [ UPGRADED ] To detect if there is an arbitrage we need two things Market Odds & Orderbooks Market Odds: This will show us the ‘Spread’, if the sum of Market A YES & Market B NO is less than $1, or vice versa, we have a potential arbitrage Orderbooks: This will show us the "EV", much we can arbitrage profit we can extract, according to the available liquidity and slippage of both orderbooks This is where we had been severely limited in the past, due to inadequacies of the WebSocket feeds and API rate limits Polymarket: Orderbook initial dumps & entire orderbook price levels missing when connecting hundreds of markets to the WS feed, undisclosed multi-WS rate limits Opinion: API rate limits, WS delta updates missing, WS delta updates sent in wrong order, asks sent below best bid, airdrop farming bots posting and filling their own orders breaking WS feed. Kalshi: Rate limits and minor book inaccuracies at scale PredictFun & Probable: Surprisingly accurate as of current, monitoring how they handle increasing volumes To get past these limits and scale the Arbitrage Finder we built some advanced new systems 1. Multiple Instances Instead of scaling vertically we moved to scaling horizontally, a central controller handles the deployment & management of multiple proxied worker instances that each keep a local record of a subset of the market orderbooks and detect arbitrage opportunities as soon as dif updates are received These worker instances feed the orderbook data back to the main controller which aggregates all information in one place and formats along them with relevant metadata to be fetched by our trading interfaces and applications 2. Handling “Junk Data” One of the most challenging parts of scaling this application is dealing with the inaccuracies of the data provided by the APIs that we refer to as ‘Junk Data’ Some are easy to deal with: - Book updates returned in the wrong order required an additional ‘lastTimestamp’ value at each book level which was referenced before any future updates are applied, if diff update timestamp was prior to lastTimestamp the dif update is ignored. - Missing book dumps / levels reduced almost entirely by reducing the number of CLOB tokens per WS connection - Dif ask/bid flips appearing at impossible levels are not applied Some were a lot more challenging: - Missing book updates were only detectable with revalidation & comparison, we don’t know what we don't know until we know we don't know it. More complex revalidation triggers and short recycling periods minimize the issue With these updates we can scale the number of local orderbooks we are handling at one time: Before: ~4,000 orderbooks After: ~10,000 orderbooks This, along with the improvements in orderbook accuracy, has increased arb density by 3X Meaning we’re finding 3X the amount of opportunities as before 3. Rate limit bypass To bypass the API limits that limit the quantity of markets we can subscribe to at once we had to ██████ ███ █ ██████ █████ █████████ TRADING SYSTEMS - [ NEW ] The data is only as good as you can display it, ultimately the format in which the data is served will determine how efficiently it can be acted upon We’ve created a system of interconnected tools that enable us to trade these opportunities, each with a different specific use case 1. AlertPilot Trading Terminal A dashboard displaying all the hundreds of arbitrage opportunities the bot has found across 5 different prediction markets in real time + Arbitrage Calculator, showing you exactly how much to bid to take advantage of the arbitrage according to your bankroll, fees & slippage + Double Price Chart, which helps traders to estimate how long their arbitrage take to close + Strategy Guide, explaining how to execute arbitrage trades most effectively to maximize profits + Position Manager, connect your wallets to see your open arbitrage positions, EV, profits & exits 2. AlertPilot Telegram Bot A system for getting alerts on all new arbitrage opportunities immediately, EV, Spreads & market links + Custom Settings, only see the arbitrages you’d want to take with user specific settings + Position Sell Alerts, connected to the AlertPilot Position Manager, get alerts to your phone when its time to sell your arbitrage positions + All 5 Markets, alerts on all 5 supported prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, Probable & PredictFun 3. AlertPilot Discord Bot Private chat rooms and arbitrage alerts on the AlertPilot Discord Group + Custom Alerts, the best arbitrage alerts are sent to the discord channel + Support, traders answering your questions on Arbitrage Trading 4. Arbitrage Trading Terminal [ SOON ] A trading terminal built specifically for Arbitrage + Atomic Execution, enter positions on two platforms at the same time + Visualize the Arbitrage, trade with both charts in one place, see the gap close as you take your positions + Manage positions across multiple prediction markets in one place
SecureZero 33,200 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
In 2025 I created an Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi Polymarket Opinion The results were actually quite surprising I will share how much I've been able to make using the bot at the end of the thread! But first, how does it even work? 1. The Strategy A lot of the viral trading bots on X for Prediction Markets are trying to trade just within Polymarket, mostly on highly volatile markets. Buying quickly / selling quickly, this works great if you’re a VC with an infinite budget for development and the fastest infrastructure positioned right next to Polymarkets servers, but doesn't work great for regular traders. I knew building a bot here is like trying to out sprint Usain Bolt wearing flip flops So instead if i wanted to make a bot it would have to be doing something I haven't seen anyone else do So after engaging 100% of my brain I remembered how I'd seen many of the same markets when browsing Kalshi that I'd previously seen on Polymarket. If the odds were different I'd actually be able to arbitrage the two platforms. After checking 20 or so pairs I found a few examples where the odds were different, proving my theory. So i started building 2. The Bot I began crafting an algorithm that collects all the Polymarket, Kalshi & Opinion markets and identifies any that are the same. In total that's over 6,000,000 markets, billions of potential combinations, from that i found around 6,000 that match. A lot of markets have the same title, but slight differences in the rules that means an arbitrage is not possible. For example ‘Will Trump meet XYZ person before ABC date’ - many of these exist between Poly Kalshi but Kalshi defines ‘meeting’ as online, or in real life, whilst Polymarket defines it strictly as in real life. To verify the matches I first used an algorithm that sees if the titles / rules are similar, then I feed every one of those potential pairs into an LLM that is prompted to approve / reject the potential match. This part sounds like it should be easy, but the LLMs were all so inconsistent. I’d pass the same market 10 times and it would reject it twice and approve it eight times. After a lot of prompt engineering I finally got it to a stage where it's at least 99% accurate. The bot then recreates locally all the orderbooks for the matched markets and looks for any pairs with YES + NO values of < $1 & calculate how much you can profitably buy of each side ( your EV ) 3. An Example ‘SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap? 900B to 1T' This market exists on both Poly & Opinion, but right now the odds are different. YES / NO 4% / 97% - Polymarket 10% / 92% - Opinion Lets say you told the bot you wanted to trade $100 You’d split it $3.85 into Polymarket YES for 104.743 Shares $96.15 into Opinion NO for 104.743 Shares You spent $100, and you got 104.7 shares of each side And because 1 YES + 1 NO = $1 ( when the markets are identical ) Your expected profit is $4.7, because: value ( 104.7 shares * $1 ) - cost ( $100 ) = profit ( 4.7 Shares / $4.7 ) Then once the odds rebalance, usually a few days to a week, you can sell both sides and use the principal + the profit to take another arbitrage $100 isn't much, but imagine if you did $1000, or $10,000 every few days. Since creating the bot it has been finding around $350,000 in arbitrages from over 5,000 matching market pairs every month. That's more than I could ever take my self Assuming an average of 4% per arb (often more), It would take over $8,750,000 deployed to capture them all simultaneously That's why I initially shared the bot with some sharp sportsbook bettors for commission on their trades, eventually making it a public version that's on AlertPilot for anyone to use. 4. The Longevity Will this work forever? No, eventually a VC will come and eat our free lunch, it will become more competitive and the spreads wont be as high as they are now (+10% at times). My mantra here is just to make the most of it whilst I can, and release consistent updates so that it remains competitive against the competition. I already have a head start in that regard. I will say over the last 3 months of using the bot myself, plus adding traders / syndicates to the platform to trade as well, the amount of Arbitrages found has only increased. In large part no doubt to the huge increase in volume on PM’s, especially Opinion where many of the more profitable arbitrages have been. 5. The Profit So how much did I make? I started with a bankroll of $1,000 as I was skeptical initially how well the bot would work, first week I was able to close two 5% arbs. I then increased my bank roll and started sharing the bot with other traders. Since then I've been averaging five figures every month from my own trades + commissions. Anywhere between 12% to 20% per month in closed arbs, personally. To anyone reading this that wants to arbitraging these markets, i've released a version of the bot on AlertPilot! And for any VCs or betting syndicate that wants to trade these markets, my DMs are open. Aspiring trading bot makers, there is money out there if you can be creative in your strategies Have lots of plans for AlertPilot + the Arbitrage bot going into 2026. Happy new year everybody!
SecureZero 13,598 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Больше нет контента для загрузки