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Dr. Tamitha Skov

@TamithaSkov • 91,478 subscribers

Space Weather Physicist. Forecasting aurora, GPS, HF radio & radiation issues during solar storms. On TV: @HISTORY, @weatherchannel, @PopSci, @NASA, @techreview

Shorts

The solar storm is affecting GPS signal reception in the auroral zones in the latest GEOCHRON map update. Watch the burgundy splotches in the auroral zone and on the nightside of Earth grow as the storm intensity increases. That is where GPS reception may not be trustworthy right now.

The solar storm is affecting GPS signal reception in the auroral zones in the latest GEOCHRON map update. Watch the burgundy splotches in the auroral zone and on the nightside of Earth grow as the storm intensity increases. That is where GPS reception may not be trustworthy right now.

22,203 Aufrufe

Direct Hit! An Earth-directed #solarstorm is on its way. NASA & NOAA predictions show the time window for impact begins the afternoon of February 17. Once the storm hits, #aurora is possible to mid-latitudes. Expect amateur #radio & #GPS reception issues on Earth's nightside.

Direct Hit! An Earth-directed #solarstorm is on its way. NASA & NOAA predictions show the time window for impact begins the afternoon of February 17. Once the storm hits, #aurora is possible to mid-latitudes. Expect amateur #radio & #GPS reception issues on Earth's nightside.

355,446 Aufrufe

Aurora isn't just beautiful, it also impacts radio communications! Looking at HF/VHF propagation during the peak of the recent G4 #solarstorm, we can see #auroral propagation occurs quite far south even during the daylight hours in Europe and the USA.

Aurora isn't just beautiful, it also impacts radio communications! Looking at HF/VHF propagation during the peak of the recent G4 #solarstorm, we can see #auroral propagation occurs quite far south even during the daylight hours in Europe and the USA.

134,906 Aufrufe

A whole train of big #solarstorms are on their way, along with some smaller storms hitting now, and some fast solar wind! It is an #aurora photographers dream starting now and lasting at least through the weekend. Right now, the biggest of the storms should hit late Thursday or early Friday morning and is well-represented in NOAA's prediction model. You can also get a 3D view of the coming solar storm in my earlier post. G3 to G4 storm levels are possible by Friday.

A whole train of big #solarstorms are on their way, along with some smaller storms hitting now, and some fast solar wind! It is an #aurora photographers dream starting now and lasting at least through the weekend. Right now, the biggest of the storms should hit late Thursday or early Friday morning and is well-represented in NOAA's prediction model. You can also get a 3D view of the coming solar storm in my earlier post. G3 to G4 storm levels are possible by Friday.

51,937 Aufrufe

Official NOAA prediction shows the main four of TEN #solarstorms on their way to Earth. At this point, I can see them upping expectations to G4-level by July 31. #Aurora deep to mid-latitudes with this extended storming. #GPS, #PrecisionAG farmers & HF/VHF #radio operators expect degraded performance starting July 30.

Official NOAA prediction shows the main four of TEN #solarstorms on their way to Earth. At this point, I can see them upping expectations to G4-level by July 31. #Aurora deep to mid-latitudes with this extended storming. #GPS, #PrecisionAG farmers & HF/VHF #radio operators expect degraded performance starting July 30.

121,081 Aufrufe

Direct Hit: NOAA predictions show the coming #solarstorm will hit Earth early April 24. Easily a G2-level storm at mid-latitudes, #aurora chances are high. The storm must still have the right magnetic orientation for sustained shows. Expect #HFradio & #GPS issues on the nightside

Direct Hit: NOAA predictions show the coming #solarstorm will hit Earth early April 24. Easily a G2-level storm at mid-latitudes, #aurora chances are high. The storm must still have the right magnetic orientation for sustained shows. Expect #HFradio & #GPS issues on the nightside

110,946 Aufrufe

A Triple Play! Back-to-back #solarstorm direct hits chase a third storm to Earth. First impact begins midday May 10. NOAA models show the direct hits should arrive by early May 11. Expect #aurora chances well into mid-latitudes. G2+ conditions possible. Expect #GPS, #HF radio issues on Earth's nightside once the storms hit.

A Triple Play! Back-to-back #solarstorm direct hits chase a third storm to Earth. First impact begins midday May 10. NOAA models show the direct hits should arrive by early May 11. Expect #aurora chances well into mid-latitudes. G2+ conditions possible. Expect #GPS, #HF radio issues on Earth's nightside once the storms hit.

80,873 Aufrufe

Here is a 3D visualization of the coming solar storm using model parameters from NASA's run, NOAA's run (shown below), and the coronagraph views from STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO. The storm is expected to hit Earth early December 9. The 3D visualization clearly shows the low inclination orientation of the solar slinky core inside the larger storm envelope. Of course, the earlier eruption that erupted to the northeast, might deflect this structure a little bit, but likely that will only make the structure move more towards the ecliptic plane, which will give us a larger chance of crossing through the solar slinky core. One nice thing about low inclination flux rope cores is that they almost ALWAYS have southward field in them at some point. So this is good news for aurora photographers-- as long as this solar storm stays true to its launch trajectory and inclination, we could see some organized southward pointed magnetic field. Considering this solar storm is fast-- that usually indicates the storm will not deviate much from its original launch trajectory! Here is the link to a static frame of the 3D frame visualization so you can fly around it yourself:

Here is a 3D visualization of the coming solar storm using model parameters from NASA's run, NOAA's run (shown below), and the coronagraph views from STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO. The storm is expected to hit Earth early December 9. The 3D visualization clearly shows the low inclination orientation of the solar slinky core inside the larger storm envelope. Of course, the earlier eruption that erupted to the northeast, might deflect this structure a little bit, but likely that will only make the structure move more towards the ecliptic plane, which will give us a larger chance of crossing through the solar slinky core. One nice thing about low inclination flux rope cores is that they almost ALWAYS have southward field in them at some point. So this is good news for aurora photographers-- as long as this solar storm stays true to its launch trajectory and inclination, we could see some organized southward pointed magnetic field. Considering this solar storm is fast-- that usually indicates the storm will not deviate much from its original launch trajectory! Here is the link to a static frame of the 3D frame visualization so you can fly around it yourself:

18,429 Aufrufe

We may have some #aurora fun coming! More than 4 solar storms have been launched in the past few days from Region 4334. Some of them are headed to Earth! Along with the fast solar wind picking up by January 9, we could see a bumpy ride with storm conditions peaking January 11. G1 conditions expected thus far, but another storm just launched so forecasts may be changing rapidly! The first video highlights storms launched since January 6. The second video shows a closeup of Storms 3 and 4, which launched today in the Earth-Strike Zone. More analysis is coming.

We may have some #aurora fun coming! More than 4 solar storms have been launched in the past few days from Region 4334. Some of them are headed to Earth! Along with the fast solar wind picking up by January 9, we could see a bumpy ride with storm conditions peaking January 11. G1 conditions expected thus far, but another storm just launched so forecasts may be changing rapidly! The first video highlights storms launched since January 6. The second video shows a closeup of Storms 3 and 4, which launched today in the Earth-Strike Zone. More analysis is coming.

15,099 Aufrufe

Space Weather picks up in a big way! Region 4246 launches 4 solar storms towards Earth. Region 4248 &4250 are now entering the same hot longitudes & getting more active. Expect big flares, HF radio blackouts & storm launches to continue! Strong Earth-impacts peak October 15-17.

Space Weather picks up in a big way! Region 4246 launches 4 solar storms towards Earth. Region 4248 &4250 are now entering the same hot longitudes & getting more active. Expect big flares, HF radio blackouts & storm launches to continue! Strong Earth-impacts peak October 15-17.

18,174 Aufrufe

Our Sun rapid-fire launched multiple #solarstorms today, but they were so close together in time that they look as if they are one structure in coronagraphs. Here is a thread 🧵that discusses the event in detail. The first animation shows the past 48 hours on the Earth-facing Sun. Late on July 22, you can see a slight "puff" just to the east of Region 4150. This launches the first solar storm, destabilizes the area between Region 4149 and 4150, and sets the whole chain of events in motion. Next, early on July 23, the filament near center disk launches slowly. This is the main Earth-directed eruption, which was already unstable, but the first eruption pushed the filament past the tipping point. Then finally, by mid-afternoon on July 23, Region 4149 finally lets go of the remaining material connected to the filament. It is a three-part process that is deceptively complex.

Our Sun rapid-fire launched multiple #solarstorms today, but they were so close together in time that they look as if they are one structure in coronagraphs. Here is a thread 🧵that discusses the event in detail. The first animation shows the past 48 hours on the Earth-facing Sun. Late on July 22, you can see a slight "puff" just to the east of Region 4150. This launches the first solar storm, destabilizes the area between Region 4149 and 4150, and sets the whole chain of events in motion. Next, early on July 23, the filament near center disk launches slowly. This is the main Earth-directed eruption, which was already unstable, but the first eruption pushed the filament past the tipping point. Then finally, by mid-afternoon on July 23, Region 4149 finally lets go of the remaining material connected to the filament. It is a three-part process that is deceptively complex.

20,862 Aufrufe

As this solar storm series intensifies again, sadly Europe is under heavy clouds. But that doesn't stop #auroral propagation on the radio bands! You can see it pick up shortly after 14:00 UTC and it is still going strong, despite high scintillation conditions (shown by ROTI).

As this solar storm series intensifies again, sadly Europe is under heavy clouds. But that doesn't stop #auroral propagation on the radio bands! You can see it pick up shortly after 14:00 UTC and it is still going strong, despite high scintillation conditions (shown by ROTI).

10,458 Aufrufe

Solar activity just keeps coming! We've had two X-class flares today from Region 3947. The first one, (the X1.2) was eruptive but the #solarstorm that was launched was not Earth-directed. HF #radio operators expect the R3-level #RadioBlackout risk to stay high this week.

Solar activity just keeps coming! We've had two X-class flares today from Region 3947. The first one, (the X1.2) was eruptive but the #solarstorm that was launched was not Earth-directed. HF #radio operators expect the R3-level #RadioBlackout risk to stay high this week.

18,483 Aufrufe

A partly Earth-directed #solarstorm launch gives us a new chance for #aurora. NOAA predictions show impact by early July 15. Sporadic aurora views could reach down to mid-latitudes. Mild amateur #radio disruptions & #GPS reception issues expected on Earth's nightside.

A partly Earth-directed #solarstorm launch gives us a new chance for #aurora. NOAA predictions show impact by early July 15. Sporadic aurora views could reach down to mid-latitudes. Mild amateur #radio disruptions & #GPS reception issues expected on Earth's nightside.

20,965 Aufrufe

Over the past 12 hours, the #aurora has been quite strong, but it only began to really build after the magnetic field flipped southward. The timing was near midnight to 1 am for most folks in New Zealand and Tasmania. That's when we began building to G3+ levels. Sadly, we might be seeing another reversal in field conditions now and a weakening of shows.

Over the past 12 hours, the #aurora has been quite strong, but it only began to really build after the magnetic field flipped southward. The timing was near midnight to 1 am for most folks in New Zealand and Tasmania. That's when we began building to G3+ levels. Sadly, we might be seeing another reversal in field conditions now and a weakening of shows.

10,752 Aufrufe

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Four Earth-directed solar storms are on the way thanks to Region 4455. Catch my full forecast out tomorrow!

Four Earth-directed solar storms are on the way thanks to Region 4455. Catch my full forecast out tomorrow!

Dr. Tamitha Skov

12,741 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

Despite being a reasonably mild storm thus far, it sure impacted aviation when it first hit. Check out how much the vertical position accuracy in the WAAS precision GPS system for the FAA was affected! Watch the red drop down over the Canadian provinces and down into Kansas and Colorado!

Despite being a reasonably mild storm thus far, it sure impacted aviation when it first hit. Check out how much the vertical position accuracy in the WAAS precision GPS system for the FAA was affected! Watch the red drop down over the Canadian provinces and down into Kansas and Colorado!

Dr. Tamitha Skov

35,470 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

A partially Earth-directed #solarstorm is coming! Expect G1 to G2 storm conditions by March 5. #Aurora may be visible down to mid-latitudes where skies are clear. HF radio operators, GPS users, & drone pilots expect degraded signal performance, especially on Earth's nightside.

A partially Earth-directed #solarstorm is coming! Expect G1 to G2 storm conditions by March 5. #Aurora may be visible down to mid-latitudes where skies are clear. HF radio operators, GPS users, & drone pilots expect degraded signal performance, especially on Earth's nightside.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

76,686 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Here is a 3D visualization of the coming solar storm using model parameters from NASA's run, NOAA's run (shown below), and the coronagraph views from STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO. The storm is expected to hit Earth early December 9. The 3D visualization clearly shows the low inclination orientation of the solar slinky core inside the larger storm envelope. Of course, the earlier eruption that erupted to the northeast, might deflect this structure a little bit, but likely that will only make the structure move more towards the ecliptic plane, which will give us a larger chance of crossing through the solar slinky core. One nice thing about low inclination flux rope cores is that they almost ALWAYS have southward field in them at some point. So this is good news for aurora photographers-- as long as this solar storm stays true to its launch trajectory and inclination, we could see some organized southward pointed magnetic field. Considering this solar storm is fast-- that usually indicates the storm will not deviate much from its original launch trajectory! Here is the link to a static frame of the 3D frame visualization so you can fly around it yourself:

Here is a 3D visualization of the coming solar storm using model parameters from NASA's run, NOAA's run (shown below), and the coronagraph views from STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO. The storm is expected to hit Earth early December 9. The 3D visualization clearly shows the low inclination orientation of the solar slinky core inside the larger storm envelope. Of course, the earlier eruption that erupted to the northeast, might deflect this structure a little bit, but likely that will only make the structure move more towards the ecliptic plane, which will give us a larger chance of crossing through the solar slinky core. One nice thing about low inclination flux rope cores is that they almost ALWAYS have southward field in them at some point. So this is good news for aurora photographers-- as long as this solar storm stays true to its launch trajectory and inclination, we could see some organized southward pointed magnetic field. Considering this solar storm is fast-- that usually indicates the storm will not deviate much from its original launch trajectory! Here is the link to a static frame of the 3D frame visualization so you can fly around it yourself:

Dr. Tamitha Skov

18,429 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

The big X-flare yesterday manifested in a two-part eruption, which is proving tough to model. As such, NOAA & NASA predictions are different. Both are shown. Note the NASA run has both "shock" and "bulk" runs superposed in a single composite. For details see

The big X-flare yesterday manifested in a two-part eruption, which is proving tough to model. As such, NOAA & NASA predictions are different. Both are shown. Note the NASA run has both "shock" and "bulk" runs superposed in a single composite. For details see

Dr. Tamitha Skov

16,521 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Curious how many aviators flying over North America and precision farmers in the USA had impacts to #GPS/GNSS and or #RTK during this New Year's #solarstorm? According to the FAA Test Center, WAAS suffered severe degradation during the storm's peak. (In the video, deep red = bad)

Curious how many aviators flying over North America and precision farmers in the USA had impacts to #GPS/GNSS and or #RTK during this New Year's #solarstorm? According to the FAA Test Center, WAAS suffered severe degradation during the storm's peak. (In the video, deep red = bad)

Dr. Tamitha Skov

31,837 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Heads Up! A new, emerging region likely to be named 3820 destabilized a filament & it launched as an Earth-directed #solarstorm. NOAA & NASA predictions show impact either late September 10 or early September 11. We may see G1 to G2 levels. #Aurora possible to mid-latitudes.

Heads Up! A new, emerging region likely to be named 3820 destabilized a filament & it launched as an Earth-directed #solarstorm. NOAA & NASA predictions show impact either late September 10 or early September 11. We may see G1 to G2 levels. #Aurora possible to mid-latitudes.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

31,870 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

We have multiple #solarstorms hitting Earth this week, which could bring us #aurora filled skies over the next few days. Even though over 18 active regions are in Earth-view, the risk for big flares and #RadioBlackouts decreases slightly this week. The 5-Day Outlooks are below.

We have multiple #solarstorms hitting Earth this week, which could bring us #aurora filled skies over the next few days. Even though over 18 active regions are in Earth-view, the risk for big flares and #RadioBlackouts decreases slightly this week. The 5-Day Outlooks are below.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

28,755 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Our Sun and Earth have finally calmed down and we are back to low level solar storms and some minor fast solar wind. Here is a nice 4-day view of the Sun from SUVI in 284 Angstroms with the latest GONG magnetic field line model overlay. Old region 4274 is still up to its tricks, firing off the last big flare before rotating off the west limb, and later, launching another storm on the farside! For us, right now we are still getting a little fast wind from a northern coronal hole but that will wane over the next 24 hours. Expect another pocket of fast wind from the coronal hole passing center disk to arrive in about 3 to 4 days. Outside of that, conditions are reasonably calm Earthside, even with the new regions rotating into view in the southeast. Cannot say the same for the farside though!

Our Sun and Earth have finally calmed down and we are back to low level solar storms and some minor fast solar wind. Here is a nice 4-day view of the Sun from SUVI in 284 Angstroms with the latest GONG magnetic field line model overlay. Old region 4274 is still up to its tricks, firing off the last big flare before rotating off the west limb, and later, launching another storm on the farside! For us, right now we are still getting a little fast wind from a northern coronal hole but that will wane over the next 24 hours. Expect another pocket of fast wind from the coronal hole passing center disk to arrive in about 3 to 4 days. Outside of that, conditions are reasonably calm Earthside, even with the new regions rotating into view in the southeast. Cannot say the same for the farside though!

Dr. Tamitha Skov

11,744 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Several #solarstorms are coming along with more fast solar wind this week. The first storm could hit late today March 23 or early March 24. The second could graze Earth late March 25. Fast wind to follow. I will have a forecast out shortly that goes into these events in detail.

Several #solarstorms are coming along with more fast solar wind this week. The first storm could hit late today March 23 or early March 24. The second could graze Earth late March 25. Fast wind to follow. I will have a forecast out shortly that goes into these events in detail.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

19,756 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Twin Filaments launch while crossing through the Earth-Strike Zone! These #solarstorms will likely travel slowly, but they are dense and thus could pack a decent punch! Still waiting for coronagraph data to inform model runs, but impact could be late April 15 or early April 16.

Twin Filaments launch while crossing through the Earth-Strike Zone! These #solarstorms will likely travel slowly, but they are dense and thus could pack a decent punch! Still waiting for coronagraph data to inform model runs, but impact could be late April 15 or early April 16.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

18,790 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

A set of #solarstorms comes in time for the holiday festivities! A wispy storm is expected on the 24th, with bigger impacts following. #Aurora possible to mid-latitudes on Christmas Day. Amateur #radio & #GPS operators expect moderate noise on the dayside radio bands this week.

A set of #solarstorms comes in time for the holiday festivities! A wispy storm is expected on the 24th, with bigger impacts following. #Aurora possible to mid-latitudes on Christmas Day. Amateur #radio & #GPS operators expect moderate noise on the dayside radio bands this week.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

20,692 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Activity ramps up due to some fast #solar wind from a coronal hole entering the Earth strike zone now. #AuroraAustralis chasers at high latitudes could get a decent show through June 28. Expect views to be more sporadic at mid-latitudes. Expect a full forecast for Field Day.

Activity ramps up due to some fast #solar wind from a coronal hole entering the Earth strike zone now. #AuroraAustralis chasers at high latitudes could get a decent show through June 28. Expect views to be more sporadic at mid-latitudes. Expect a full forecast for Field Day.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

13,381 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Fast #solar wind continues throughout this week. Strong #aurora possibilities at high latitudes with sporadic shows at mid-latitudes. #RadioBlackouts on Earth's dayside at the R1-level level will continue and slowly increase. HF radio & GPS effects should be minor to moderate.

Fast #solar wind continues throughout this week. Strong #aurora possibilities at high latitudes with sporadic shows at mid-latitudes. #RadioBlackouts on Earth's dayside at the R1-level level will continue and slowly increase. HF radio & GPS effects should be minor to moderate.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

14,901 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Here is your #SpaceWeather Snapshot ahead of my new forecast out tomorrow: An Earth-directed #solarstorm expected to hit Earth June 12-13. Also, new regions are rotating into view that will raise noise on the dayside radio bands & increase the risk for #RadioBlackouts this week.

Here is your #SpaceWeather Snapshot ahead of my new forecast out tomorrow: An Earth-directed #solarstorm expected to hit Earth June 12-13. Also, new regions are rotating into view that will raise noise on the dayside radio bands & increase the risk for #RadioBlackouts this week.

Dr. Tamitha Skov

12,107 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

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