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. Cem Karsan 🥐 is calling a 20-30% drawdown.Not before the midterms...after: full convo linked below!

. Cem Karsan 🥐 is calling a 20-30% drawdown.Not before the midterms...after: full convo linked below!

34,213 görüntüleme

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25 to 40% decline. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 is putting timing and price on the record. The only thing holding it together right now is Bessent keeping the plates spinning for six more weeks. After the midterms, the incentive disappears.

25 to 40% decline. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 is putting timing and price on the record. The only thing holding it together right now is Bessent keeping the plates spinning for six more weeks. After the midterms, the incentive disappears.

278,185 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce

If you've been trading for any amount of time, you're probably already aware of the concept of volatility and the impact it can have on the broader market. However, a concept that traders of all levels often miss is volatility supply. Volatility has a supply and demand curve, just like any other product, and it can be created or destroyed through a number of different means. Here's Cem Karsan 🥐 giving a great explanation of vol supply in response to a (very eloquent) YouTube comment asking about it! #StockMarket #Volatility #Investing #Finance #OptionsTrading

If you've been trading for any amount of time, you're probably already aware of the concept of volatility and the impact it can have on the broader market. However, a concept that traders of all levels often miss is volatility supply. Volatility has a supply and demand curve, just like any other product, and it can be created or destroyed through a number of different means. Here's Cem Karsan 🥐 giving a great explanation of vol supply in response to a (very eloquent) YouTube comment asking about it! #StockMarket #Volatility #Investing #Finance #OptionsTrading

282,821 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Everyone left Jackson Hole convinced Warsh is about to hike. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 is calling the opposite right here. His read is that the hawkish talk was never about policy, it was a defense of the dollar. Bessent said the quiet part out loud yesterday: you do not raise rates into a supply shock.

Everyone left Jackson Hole convinced Warsh is about to hike. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 is calling the opposite right here. His read is that the hawkish talk was never about policy, it was a defense of the dollar. Bessent said the quiet part out loud yesterday: you do not raise rates into a supply shock.

158,938 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

WAKE UP. Cem Karsan says this is where the U.S. is heading. A massive sovereign wealth fund. Strategic investment flowing into AI, infrastructure and power. And potentially trillions moving through the equity market. Cem Karsan 🥐 breaks down what could be coming next.

WAKE UP. Cem Karsan says this is where the U.S. is heading. A massive sovereign wealth fund. Strategic investment flowing into AI, infrastructure and power. And potentially trillions moving through the equity market. Cem Karsan 🥐 breaks down what could be coming next.

59,045 görüntüleme • 27 gün önce

Dealers know what they're short. So does everyone on the other side of them. Cem Karsan 🥐 joined Mike Butler and Jermal Chandler to discuss who pushed Nvidia after the close. 🍒🥐👇 $NVDA #options

Dealers know what they're short. So does everyone on the other side of them. Cem Karsan 🥐 joined Mike Butler and Jermal Chandler to discuss who pushed Nvidia after the close. 🍒🥐👇 $NVDA #options

85,875 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

The index is at a record high. Most of the stocks in it are already in a bear market. Cem Karsan 🥐: 59% of the S&P 500 is in a bear market right now, and 45% of it trades negative beta. 134 names are down 40% or more. A handful of giants are holding up the tape. When those rich calls decay and dealers are forced to sell, the question isn’t if it cracks, it’s when.

The index is at a record high. Most of the stocks in it are already in a bear market. Cem Karsan 🥐: 59% of the S&P 500 is in a bear market right now, and 45% of it trades negative beta. 134 names are down 40% or more. A handful of giants are holding up the tape. When those rich calls decay and dealers are forced to sell, the question isn’t if it cracks, it’s when.

16,361 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce

Midterms are coming up, and all traders know that they will have some bearing on the stock market; the only question is to what degree. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 has decades of experience in the markets and lots of expertise on trading through headline events like midterms, and he has shared numerous opinions about the upcoming midterm cycle in his regular appearances on tastylive. We decided to ask him for the biggest risks that traders should be aware of ahead of this upcoming midterm cycle, and his answer was insightful as always. #StockMarket #Investing #Finance #Election #Midterms

Midterms are coming up, and all traders know that they will have some bearing on the stock market; the only question is to what degree. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 has decades of experience in the markets and lots of expertise on trading through headline events like midterms, and he has shared numerous opinions about the upcoming midterm cycle in his regular appearances on tastylive. We decided to ask him for the biggest risks that traders should be aware of ahead of this upcoming midterm cycle, and his answer was insightful as always. #StockMarket #Investing #Finance #Election #Midterms

31,145 görüntüleme • 23 gün önce

65% of S&P daily volume is now zero DTE. On the Nasdaq, 82% expires in five days or less. Brent Kochuba SpotGamma says that is why the old relationships stopped working. Warsh signals a hike, which should send stocks lower, and the market barely blinks. Then a new AI model out of China knocks 15% off Nvidia. When everything is short dated, liquidity disappears the moment something unexpected shows up.

65% of S&P daily volume is now zero DTE. On the Nasdaq, 82% expires in five days or less. Brent Kochuba SpotGamma says that is why the old relationships stopped working. Warsh signals a hike, which should send stocks lower, and the market barely blinks. Then a new AI model out of China knocks 15% off Nvidia. When everything is short dated, liquidity disappears the moment something unexpected shows up.

61,687 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

When negative deltas begin to stack up in the market, yields continue to rise, and the tape remains generally weak, it can be hard to fathom how it's possible that we continue to drift upward. There are, of course, multiple answers to this question, and SpotGamma's Brent Kochuba dove into a number of those answers this morning on air with Mike Butler and Jermal Chandler. Using SpotGamma's HIRO Indicator, Brent is able to identify the flows of delta in the broader market, and isolate the reasons why that flow may not match the market's performance on any given day. #StockMarket #OptionsTrading #Education #Finance #Investing

When negative deltas begin to stack up in the market, yields continue to rise, and the tape remains generally weak, it can be hard to fathom how it's possible that we continue to drift upward. There are, of course, multiple answers to this question, and SpotGamma's Brent Kochuba dove into a number of those answers this morning on air with Mike Butler and Jermal Chandler. Using SpotGamma's HIRO Indicator, Brent is able to identify the flows of delta in the broader market, and isolate the reasons why that flow may not match the market's performance on any given day. #StockMarket #OptionsTrading #Education #Finance #Investing

34,858 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce

We’re traders!

We’re traders!

865,015 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

The S&P 500 looks like one market. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 sees two. By his count, roughly 58% of its stocks are down more than 20%, while 45% have had negative beta over the past three months. If you only watch the index, you miss the split underneath.

The S&P 500 looks like one market. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 sees two. By his count, roughly 58% of its stocks are down more than 20%, while 45% have had negative beta over the past three months. If you only watch the index, you miss the split underneath.

15,863 görüntüleme • 12 gün önce

So that just happened, Cem Karsan 🥐 joined Christopher Vecchio, CFA and Ilya Spivak to talk the fed hiking rates for the first time in three years

So that just happened, Cem Karsan 🥐 joined Christopher Vecchio, CFA and Ilya Spivak to talk the fed hiking rates for the first time in three years

38,710 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Will the Fed hike in September? Cem Karsan 🥐 told Jermal Chandler that he's calling a hard no. Not in September, not at all 👇🍒🥐

Will the Fed hike in September? Cem Karsan 🥐 told Jermal Chandler that he's calling a hard no. Not in September, not at all 👇🍒🥐

49,842 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Is the AI boom becoming a bubble that's too dependent on debt? Cem Karsan 🥐 thinks the warning signs are already emerging. As hyperscalers continue borrowing billions to fund AI infrastructure, rising debt costs and credit risk could threaten the very spending that's been driving earnings growth and pushing markets higher. Cem Karsan joined tastylive's Overtime to explain why this creates a dangerous cycle for the broader market, and what could happen when that spending starts to slow. 👇 #AI #StockMarket #Investing

Is the AI boom becoming a bubble that's too dependent on debt? Cem Karsan 🥐 thinks the warning signs are already emerging. As hyperscalers continue borrowing billions to fund AI infrastructure, rising debt costs and credit risk could threaten the very spending that's been driving earnings growth and pushing markets higher. Cem Karsan joined tastylive's Overtime to explain why this creates a dangerous cycle for the broader market, and what could happen when that spending starts to slow. 👇 #AI #StockMarket #Investing

15,565 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

Cem Karsan is sounding the alarm on volatility. Skew is rising. Vol compression may be running out of room. And as we get closer to the midterms, the setup could get a lot more violent. “You sure as hell want to own the tail.” This is one traders should watch 👀

Cem Karsan is sounding the alarm on volatility. Skew is rising. Vol compression may be running out of room. And as we get closer to the midterms, the setup could get a lot more violent. “You sure as hell want to own the tail.” This is one traders should watch 👀

31,824 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

“A real tail event in the index is similar to COVID.” Cem Karsan 🥐 warning: If correlation snaps toward 1, index volatility could explode. And the setup may already be forming.

“A real tail event in the index is similar to COVID.” Cem Karsan 🥐 warning: If correlation snaps toward 1, index volatility could explode. And the setup may already be forming.

19,674 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce

Everyone's watching bonds break and bracing for the crash. Cem Karsan 🥐 flips it: bonds are breaking SO badly that the fear itself is pulling money back into them. That's why the auction didn't fail. Timestamps: 00:00 A surprisingly strong bond auction 02:02 The counterintuitive flight to safety 03:27 France vs the US, the least dirty shirt 05:11 Why overnight risk is back on the menu 05:54 The wall of worry and the cliff ahead 09:00 The pressure on regional banks 13:00 The hyperscalers' two-customer problem 17:00 The AI capex catch-22 19:00 Where the market could run next 23:00 The setup into year-end 25:00 What he's watching now

Everyone's watching bonds break and bracing for the crash. Cem Karsan 🥐 flips it: bonds are breaking SO badly that the fear itself is pulling money back into them. That's why the auction didn't fail. Timestamps: 00:00 A surprisingly strong bond auction 02:02 The counterintuitive flight to safety 03:27 France vs the US, the least dirty shirt 05:11 Why overnight risk is back on the menu 05:54 The wall of worry and the cliff ahead 09:00 The pressure on regional banks 13:00 The hyperscalers' two-customer problem 17:00 The AI capex catch-22 19:00 Where the market could run next 23:00 The setup into year-end 25:00 What he's watching now

12,681 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

The S&P looks calm. The stocks inside it are anything but. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 says that gap is the whole story right now. When index volatility gets compressed this hard, correlation between the individual names starts breaking down, and the index quietly masks how much those names are actually moving. That calm surface is not real. It is compression hiding what is underneath.

The S&P looks calm. The stocks inside it are anything but. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 says that gap is the whole story right now. When index volatility gets compressed this hard, correlation between the individual names starts breaking down, and the index quietly masks how much those names are actually moving. That calm surface is not real. It is compression hiding what is underneath.

44,430 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

What could cause the next major market melt-up that almost nobody is positioned for? Cem Karsan 🥐 explains why he believes the bigger story may be continued liquidity, policy support and an economy increasingly dependent on equities moving higher. While a meaningful decline could still come first, Cem says the ultimate path could lead to an inflationary and productivity-driven boom. #Markets #Trading #Macro #StockMarket #Investing #Liquidity

What could cause the next major market melt-up that almost nobody is positioned for? Cem Karsan 🥐 explains why he believes the bigger story may be continued liquidity, policy support and an economy increasingly dependent on equities moving higher. While a meaningful decline could still come first, Cem says the ultimate path could lead to an inflationary and productivity-driven boom. #Markets #Trading #Macro #StockMarket #Investing #Liquidity

11,899 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce

This isn’t your usual rally tape. Upside volatility is now running hotter than downside volatility in both the Nasdaq and S&P, something SpotGamma’s Brent Kochuba says is far from normal. Add quarter-end FOMO and realized vol picking up after OPEX, and things could get interesting fast.

This isn’t your usual rally tape. Upside volatility is now running hotter than downside volatility in both the Nasdaq and S&P, something SpotGamma’s Brent Kochuba says is far from normal. Add quarter-end FOMO and realized vol picking up after OPEX, and things could get interesting fast.

22,851 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce