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. Cem Karsan 🥐 is calling a 20-30% drawdown.Not before the midterms...after: full convo linked below!

. Cem Karsan 🥐 is calling a 20-30% drawdown.Not before the midterms...after: full convo linked below!

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If you've been trading for any amount of time, you're probably already aware of the concept of volatility and the impact it can have on the broader market. However, a concept that traders of all levels often miss is volatility supply. Volatility has a supply and demand curve, just like any other product, and it can be created or destroyed through a number of different means. Here's Cem Karsan 🥐 giving a great explanation of vol supply in response to a (very eloquent) YouTube comment asking about it! #StockMarket #Volatility #Investing #Finance #OptionsTrading

If you've been trading for any amount of time, you're probably already aware of the concept of volatility and the impact it can have on the broader market. However, a concept that traders of all levels often miss is volatility supply. Volatility has a supply and demand curve, just like any other product, and it can be created or destroyed through a number of different means. Here's Cem Karsan 🥐 giving a great explanation of vol supply in response to a (very eloquent) YouTube comment asking about it! #StockMarket #Volatility #Investing #Finance #OptionsTrading

261,004 views • 2 days ago

Will the Fed hike in September? Cem Karsan 🥐 told Jermal Chandler that he's calling a hard no. Not in September, not at all 👇🍒🥐

Will the Fed hike in September? Cem Karsan 🥐 told Jermal Chandler that he's calling a hard no. Not in September, not at all 👇🍒🥐

45,590 views • 1 day ago

Everyone left Jackson Hole convinced Warsh is about to hike. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 is calling the opposite right here. His read is that the hawkish talk was never about policy, it was a defense of the dollar. Bessent said the quiet part out loud yesterday: you do not raise rates into a supply shock.

Everyone left Jackson Hole convinced Warsh is about to hike. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 is calling the opposite right here. His read is that the hawkish talk was never about policy, it was a defense of the dollar. Bessent said the quiet part out loud yesterday: you do not raise rates into a supply shock.

147,786 views • 4 days ago

65% of S&P daily volume is now zero DTE. On the Nasdaq, 82% expires in five days or less. Brent Kochuba SpotGamma says that is why the old relationships stopped working. Warsh signals a hike, which should send stocks lower, and the market barely blinks. Then a new AI model out of China knocks 15% off Nvidia. When everything is short dated, liquidity disappears the moment something unexpected shows up.

65% of S&P daily volume is now zero DTE. On the Nasdaq, 82% expires in five days or less. Brent Kochuba SpotGamma says that is why the old relationships stopped working. Warsh signals a hike, which should send stocks lower, and the market barely blinks. Then a new AI model out of China knocks 15% off Nvidia. When everything is short dated, liquidity disappears the moment something unexpected shows up.

50,686 views • 4 days ago

Dealers know what they're short. So does everyone on the other side of them. Cem Karsan 🥐 joined Mike Butler and Jermal Chandler to discuss who pushed Nvidia after the close. 🍒🥐👇 $NVDA #options

Dealers know what they're short. So does everyone on the other side of them. Cem Karsan 🥐 joined Mike Butler and Jermal Chandler to discuss who pushed Nvidia after the close. 🍒🥐👇 $NVDA #options

59,814 views • 8 days ago

The S&P looks calm. The stocks inside it are anything but. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 says that gap is the whole story right now. When index volatility gets compressed this hard, correlation between the individual names starts breaking down, and the index quietly masks how much those names are actually moving. That calm surface is not real. It is compression hiding what is underneath.

The S&P looks calm. The stocks inside it are anything but. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 says that gap is the whole story right now. When index volatility gets compressed this hard, correlation between the individual names starts breaking down, and the index quietly masks how much those names are actually moving. That calm surface is not real. It is compression hiding what is underneath.

44,430 views • 18 days ago

The last three midterms each began a decline of 10% or more. Sept 19 2014. Sept 20 2018. Aug 16 2022. Every one started within a day of opex or VIX expiration. Cem Karsan 🥐 read? The positioning that matters is concentrated in quarterly expirations, so the risk clusters on those dates rather than spreading evenly. Support flows peak Monday, then drop off into August opex. Mike Butler Jermal Chandler react 👇 $ES $SPX #options #trading

The last three midterms each began a decline of 10% or more. Sept 19 2014. Sept 20 2018. Aug 16 2022. Every one started within a day of opex or VIX expiration. Cem Karsan 🥐 read? The positioning that matters is concentrated in quarterly expirations, so the risk clusters on those dates rather than spreading evenly. Support flows peak Monday, then drop off into August opex. Mike Butler Jermal Chandler react 👇 $ES $SPX #options #trading

31,893 views • 22 days ago

We’re traders!

We’re traders!

864,999 views • 2 years ago

They warned you. Nobody listened. Hank Paulson said months ago a treasury crisis was coming and they would need a facility to backstop the market. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 has been screaming about it since. Now the yen intervention hits, long end buybacks double, and he says a hard cap is next. QE infinity.

They warned you. Nobody listened. Hank Paulson said months ago a treasury crisis was coming and they would need a facility to backstop the market. Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 has been screaming about it since. Now the yen intervention hits, long end buybacks double, and he says a hard cap is next. QE infinity.

19,120 views • 15 days ago

Nobody has an edge. Larry Williams has been trading since 1962 and that is still his answer. His real point is the one most traders never hear. Watching a great trader and copying how they trade does not work, because what they are doing right has nothing to do with what you are doing wrong. He succeeds because he knows his own mistakes. You want to get faster, you do not copy the fastest sprinter alive. You find your weakness, fix it, then move to the next level.

Nobody has an edge. Larry Williams has been trading since 1962 and that is still his answer. His real point is the one most traders never hear. Watching a great trader and copying how they trade does not work, because what they are doing right has nothing to do with what you are doing wrong. He succeeds because he knows his own mistakes. You want to get faster, you do not copy the fastest sprinter alive. You find your weakness, fix it, then move to the next level.

26,659 views • 25 days ago

After 15 years at tastylive, Liz Dierking has decided to move on to her next chapter. Words could never do enough to express our gratitude for her many contributions over the years, from the Jade Lizard all the way to the naked put dance. We love Liz and wish her nothing but the very best in her future endeavors!

After 15 years at tastylive, Liz Dierking has decided to move on to her next chapter. Words could never do enough to express our gratitude for her many contributions over the years, from the Jade Lizard all the way to the naked put dance. We love Liz and wish her nothing but the very best in her future endeavors!

27,834 views • 29 days ago

"What I will say that no one is talking about is the more and more you get sucked into that vortex it becomes this pain trade that becomes more and more painful," Cem Karsan 🥐 joins Jermal Chandler and Mike Butler on the CBOE floor:

"What I will say that no one is talking about is the more and more you get sucked into that vortex it becomes this pain trade that becomes more and more painful," Cem Karsan 🥐 joins Jermal Chandler and Mike Butler on the CBOE floor:

82,249 views • 5 months ago

Dr. Jim Schultz has been at tastylive for a decade, and after ten years of crash courses, different hairstyles, and oh so many questions from the chat, he has decided to move on to his next venture. However, this is not the last that you'll be seeing of Dr. James Schultz! Hopefully we can announce more soon, but he is and will remain an important part of our live programming. Have a listen as he lays out the details of this transition, and remember, this is not "goodbye," just "see you later!"

Dr. Jim Schultz has been at tastylive for a decade, and after ten years of crash courses, different hairstyles, and oh so many questions from the chat, he has decided to move on to his next venture. However, this is not the last that you'll be seeing of Dr. James Schultz! Hopefully we can announce more soon, but he is and will remain an important part of our live programming. Have a listen as he lays out the details of this transition, and remember, this is not "goodbye," just "see you later!"

14,060 views • 28 days ago

Gold drops hard and everyone flips from ultra bullish to hating it overnight. Otavio (Tavi) Costa tells Ilya Spivak the thesis has not changed at all. Are central banks going to stop buying gold? Are we getting 5 to 7 rate hikes? If that is the bear case, it is nuts. This is what happens in gold cycles and the ones who lean on conviction when everybody panics are the ones who win.

Gold drops hard and everyone flips from ultra bullish to hating it overnight. Otavio (Tavi) Costa tells Ilya Spivak the thesis has not changed at all. Are central banks going to stop buying gold? Are we getting 5 to 7 rate hikes? If that is the bear case, it is nuts. This is what happens in gold cycles and the ones who lean on conviction when everybody panics are the ones who win.

33,581 views • 3 months ago

A message from Tom 🫳 🎤 🍒

A message from Tom 🫳 🎤 🍒

96,981 views • 11 months ago

People think stocks protect you from inflation. Cem Karsan 🥐 says look at 1968 to 1982. GDP growing at 3.8% a year. The economy was ripping. The S&P still lost 40% in real terms. Nick Battista and Cem Karsan

People think stocks protect you from inflation. Cem Karsan 🥐 says look at 1968 to 1982. GDP growing at 3.8% a year. The economy was ripping. The S&P still lost 40% in real terms. Nick Battista and Cem Karsan

31,898 views • 3 months ago

"I did not have the momentum battle on my bingo card," Cem Karsan 🥐 and Jermal Chandler go at Tasty x Crumbs preview 👇 Join them every Monday at 3pmCT for #TastyCrumbs !

"I did not have the momentum battle on my bingo card," Cem Karsan 🥐 and Jermal Chandler go at Tasty x Crumbs preview 👇 Join them every Monday at 3pmCT for #TastyCrumbs !

10,387 views • 29 days ago

Every shortage is followed by a glut. Eggs exploded and now they are down 99%. Oil hit $120 two months ago and is trading at $73 today. Jared Dillian Jared Dillian tells Christopher Vecchio, CFA the same thing is coming for chips. Nvidia has had pricing power because of the shortage. But it also applies to stocks. Buybacks reduced supply for years and now SpaceX, Google, Meta, and OpenAI are all adding shares right at the top of the market.

Every shortage is followed by a glut. Eggs exploded and now they are down 99%. Oil hit $120 two months ago and is trading at $73 today. Jared Dillian Jared Dillian tells Christopher Vecchio, CFA the same thing is coming for chips. Nvidia has had pricing power because of the shortage. But it also applies to stocks. Buybacks reduced supply for years and now SpaceX, Google, Meta, and OpenAI are all adding shares right at the top of the market.

18,622 views • 2 months ago

Credit card delinquencies just hit levels higher than the 2008 financial crisis. People are more afraid of losing their job than getting sick. Home prices are starting to fall. Henrik Zeberg tells Christopher Vecchio, CFA AI will change the world but every market top sounds exactly like this. The consumer is already cracking.

Credit card delinquencies just hit levels higher than the 2008 financial crisis. People are more afraid of losing their job than getting sick. Home prices are starting to fall. Henrik Zeberg tells Christopher Vecchio, CFA AI will change the world but every market top sounds exactly like this. The consumer is already cracking.

17,097 views • 3 months ago

Three million 0 DTE contracts traded in $SPX every single day. That is 62% of all daily volume in the most liquid options market on the planet. It started with indexes. Now Tesla, Nvidia, Apple and Amazon all have Monday and Wednesday expirations and traders piled in immediately. The way people use options has completely changed. Christopher Vecchio, CFA and Cboe VP Henry Schwartz on what comes next:

Three million 0 DTE contracts traded in $SPX every single day. That is 62% of all daily volume in the most liquid options market on the planet. It started with indexes. Now Tesla, Nvidia, Apple and Amazon all have Monday and Wednesday expirations and traders piled in immediately. The way people use options has completely changed. Christopher Vecchio, CFA and Cboe VP Henry Schwartz on what comes next:

14,319 views • 3 months ago