The Smart Ape 🔥
@the_smart_ape • 71,188 subscribers
Father | Pudgy Penguin #3588 | Building with AI | I do technical stuff hard to explain | Love you Mom | Nothing is financial advice | DM open 📩 |
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> be mark, stay-at-home dad > son gets an infection > pediatrician asks for a photo over telehealth > takes the pic on his android > photo auto-syncs to google photos. > doctor prescribes antibiotics. son recovers. > 48h later: "your google account has been disabled for harmful content" > google filed a CSAM report to NCMEC > sf police investigates. mark is cleared. > appeals to google. attaches the official police report. > "google stands by its decision." > loses 10 years of gmail > loses every photo of his son's childhood > loses his google fi number > can no longer sign into 30 services tied to his google login
The Smart Ape 🔥69,967 просмотров • 14 дней назад
My Polymarket bot is still running on my Raspberry Pi. 2 days ago: 26 trades triggered, 26 wins, 0 losses Now: 42 trades triggered, 42 wins, 0 losses I could change the parameters to increase the number of triggered orders, but that would make it less conservative. At these settings, I believe the bot can never lose, and each trigger guarantees ~1.5%. I could aim for more, but that would mean taking more risk. I prefer a guaranteed 1.5% per trade rather than higher returns with any chance of loss. I’ll keep the bot running until it reaches 200 triggered orders before scaling it with much more capital. In the meantime, I’m building an analysis tool for Polymarket, not a trading bot this time, but an analytics tool that doesn’t exist yet and could be very useful. Will keep you posted!
The Smart Ape 🔥674,053 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
i spent the morning tracing the whole thing on dune and the story is interesting + worth sharing. drainer wallet: 0xF7cFFC27732a5C9c4E2D592F3E33435F8dDb019A: fresh wallet, first tx ever was today 2026-05-11 at 00:52 utc. by 01:27 utc it had pulled ~$173k of assets + some memecoins from at least 5 different wallets on ethereum, base, and bsc. drained wallets: > 0x62acE10c…EE8A: ~$30k of priced assets (eth + bnb) + memecoins, drained across base / eth / bsc > 0x6131b5fae19ea4f9d964eac0408e4408b66337b5: ~$119k (eth), drained across eth + base it's clear that is not an approval/permit exploit. it's a private-key compromise. at 00:53 your wallet sent 5.8 eth to the drainer. 3 minutes later, the drainer sent 0.02 eth back to you. a few minutes after that, a 157k sat1 erc20 transfer left your wallet to the drainer. that 0.02 eth transfer was the attacker funding gas in the compromised wallet so it could keep signing transfers. the only way to make that happen is to control the wallet directly. so the attacker is signing transactions with your seed. and the part that really bothers me: among the wallets that sent funds INTO the drainer, 3 more share the exact same 8 hex chars at the same positions (62ac start, ee8a end): > 0x62ace0e0ecf70f62399b26e28eaf74cc455bee8a > 0x62ac07ae9242c354f6c307bbd9b36c749a5aee8a > 0x62ac6095d7e9189353bcbf17d439348ab7a1ee8a the 32 middle chars are completely different on each, so these are 4 genuinely distinct wallets. finding 4 wallets that all share the EXACT same 8 chars in the EXACT same positions by accident is statistically impossible. they were generated by a vanity tool specifically programmed to hunt for that shape. only your wallet sent priced assets to the drainer. the other three 62ac…ee8a wallets only sent worthless coins. these 3 don't look like victim wallets at all. looks like the attacker spent a few gpu-hours generating wallets that match the shape of your main address, then routed some of the worthless memecoins through them. why? idk, maybe: > address poisoning > trail confusion where the money is right now: most of it is still in the drainer wallet. the attacker is dumping the stolen memecoins (pod, sat1, fhe, bort, etc) into Kyberswap. but eth and bnb are just sitting there. nothing has been pushed to a cex deposit, bridged out, or sent to a mixer. once those funds hit binance/okx/bybit deposits or a tornado contract, recovery will be near-impossible. how the seed potentially leaked: > infostealer malware on the device (lumma, redline, atomic) grabbing the seed during one of the imports. these are extremely common right now and seeds in clipboard or saved as plaintext are easy pickings. > malicious browser extension intercepting the seed at paste-time into rabby or gmgn > fake support DM earlier tricking you into pasting a seed into a phishing page you didn't remember here is the dune dashboard that summarizes everything i’ve found.:
The Smart Ape 🔥51,911 просмотров • 27 дней назад
![My Polymarket bot is finished! It’s fully automated, I just run it and let the magic happen. At the start of each "Bitcoin Up or Down" round, the bot only watches the market during the first 2 minutes (configurable). If, during that time, either UP or DOWN drops fast enough, a price drop of at least 15% over 3 seconds (configurable), the bot triggers Leg 1 and immediately buys the side that dumped. After this first buy, the bot will never buy the same side again. Instead, it waits for a hedge opportunity on the opposite side. The hedge (Leg 2) is triggered only when: Leg1 entry price + current opposite ask price auto on [sum=0.95] [move=0.15] [windowMin=2] > shares: number of shares bought each time (for both Leg 1 and Leg 2) > sum: total price threshold that allows the hedge > move: dump threshold (e.g. 0.15 = 15%) > windowMin: number of minutes from the start of the round during which Leg 1 is allowed In this example, I ran: auto on 10 0.95 0.15 4 The bot watched the market for the first 4 minutes and bought 10 DOWN shares at $0.35 after a 17% drop in 3 seconds. A few seconds later, it bought 10 UP shares at $0.56, because: 0.56 + 0.35 = 0.91 < 0.95 That locked in a clean 9% profit. Why limit the strategy to the first 4 minutes of the round? Because early in the cycle, the market still has time to dump further and then stabilize. The closer you get to the end of the round, the lower the probability of seeing large corrective moves. Early on, there’s still time for volatility to play out. You can watch the video, the first order triggers at 2:50, and the second order at 3:02. If you’re interested in the bot, DM me.](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2002366558560211183/amplify_video_thumb/2002366504856428544/img/SMS8R4uyaZZ-fI8P.jpg)
My Polymarket bot is finished! It’s fully automated, I just run it and let the magic happen. At the start of each "Bitcoin Up or Down" round, the bot only watches the market during the first 2 minutes (configurable). If, during that time, either UP or DOWN drops fast enough, a price drop of at least 15% over 3 seconds (configurable), the bot triggers Leg 1 and immediately buys the side that dumped. After this first buy, the bot will never buy the same side again. Instead, it waits for a hedge opportunity on the opposite side. The hedge (Leg 2) is triggered only when: Leg1 entry price + current opposite ask price auto on [sum=0.95] [move=0.15] [windowMin=2] > shares: number of shares bought each time (for both Leg 1 and Leg 2) > sum: total price threshold that allows the hedge > move: dump threshold (e.g. 0.15 = 15%) > windowMin: number of minutes from the start of the round during which Leg 1 is allowed In this example, I ran: auto on 10 0.95 0.15 4 The bot watched the market for the first 4 minutes and bought 10 DOWN shares at $0.35 after a 17% drop in 3 seconds. A few seconds later, it bought 10 UP shares at $0.56, because: 0.56 + 0.35 = 0.91 < 0.95 That locked in a clean 9% profit. Why limit the strategy to the first 4 minutes of the round? Because early in the cycle, the market still has time to dump further and then stabilize. The closer you get to the end of the round, the lower the probability of seeing large corrective moves. Early on, there’s still time for volatility to play out. You can watch the video, the first order triggers at 2:50, and the second order at 3:02. If you’re interested in the bot, DM me.
The Smart Ape 🔥202,382 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
I built a Polymarket bot that generates a guaranteed 1.5% per trade. I’m not sure anyone has built a bot using this logic before. Since yesterday, the bot has triggered 26 times, and each time it delivered that net 1.5%. 26 trades. 26 wins. 0 losses. Check the video. The bot is still running. I was writing a guide to explain the logic, but some friends who are benefiting from it told me not to publish it. Still thinking…
The Smart Ape 🔥114,596 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
My Polymarket bot has reached 54 consecutive wins. 54 trades triggered, 54 wins, 0 losses. Each trade generates 1.5% of the traded amount. I coded the logic myself, so I know these 1.5% are guaranteed, but nothing beats testing it in real conditions. To truly confirm it, I need to go beyond 66 consecutive wins, which should happen in the coming days. But I won’t stop there, I plan to go to 200 consecutive wins to remove any doubt. For now, I’m only testing, so each trade is $10. After 200 trades, I’ll scale to $1,000 per trade, meaning $15 profit per trade. With an average of 20 trades triggered per day, that’s $300 per day. No, this isn’t a bot that will generate $1M per month. For now and for me $300 per day is enough, no need to be greedy, I try to scale step by step. While this runs, I’m working on another strategy that I’m not sure anyone has implemented yet. You’ll hear more about it soon!
The Smart Ape 🔥89,965 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
After 115 winning trades in a row with my Polymarket bot, I finally got my first loss. 116 trades total, 115 wins at +1.5%, 1 loss. I honestly didn’t think it could happen, but every downside comes with an upside. Thanks to this loss, I realized I could integrate a stop-loss into the bot. Instead of risking a full loss and losing 100% of the traded amount, I can now cap losses to 20–30% per trade. That’s a good improvement compared to the current setup. Current PnL: > 115 wins at 1.5% → +170% > 1 loss → -100%, but from now on each loss should be limited to -20–30% max A lot of people say that since Polymarket added fees to the 15-minute markets, targeting 1.5% doesn’t make sense anymore. I won’t go into details, but my implementation avoids paying those fees, and actually earns more now because I receive them instead. For the few who already have the bot, I’ll push the stop-loss update later today. If you’re interested in the bot or the logic, feel free to DM me. I don’t want to share it publicly for now to avoid losing the edge.
The Smart Ape 🔥55,276 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
Quick demo showing how to profit on Polymarket using a bot. The bot is already built, but it’s not fully automated yet, I’m still placing the orders manually for now, just to prove that the logic works. I’m trading the “Bitcoin Up or Down” 15-minute market, waiting for a strong move on either the UP or the DOWN side. After a sharp market move, I got 10 UP shares at $0.37 per share. A few seconds later, I bought 10 DOWN shares at $0.485 per share. Total spent: $9.30 Guaranteed payout after 15 minutes: $10 Net profit in 15 minutes: ~7% → ~240,000% APR This strategy must be executed early in the 15-minute cycle, so prices have enough time to rebalance. If you try this too late in the round, you risk ending up stuck with an unwanted UP or DOWN bag. Next (and final) step: fully automating the buy orders.
The Smart Ape 🔥59,842 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
My Polymarket bot takes 4 input parameters: > number of shares to buy > total price threshold that allows the hedge > dump threshold > number of minutes from the start of the round during which Leg 1 is allowed Profitability depends entirely on these parameters, so to determine the optimal parameter set, I need to backtest across many different configurations. The issue is that the API returns empty historical data for the “Bitcoin Up or Down” market (this happens for some markets). My solution is to build a bot that records live market data and saves it to a JSON file. I’ll let it run for a few days, then use this recorded data for backtesting. I’ll share the backtest results, so you can get a clear idea of the best-performing parameters.
The Smart Ape 🔥38,092 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
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