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Dr. Levi Cowan

@TropicalTidbits • 115,397 subscribers

Owner/developer of https://t.co/hrCHBENMTB. PhD in meteorology from FSU. Opinions are mine alone. Follow for expert, factual, no-hype hurricane analysis

Shorts

As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal. By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic. We can't guarantee no Atlantic storms in July, especially with the always-present risk of so-called "home grown" development along old cold fronts that drape across the SW Atlantic and Gulf region. But things seem likely to stay in check for a while.

As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal. By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic. We can't guarantee no Atlantic storms in July, especially with the always-present risk of so-called "home grown" development along old cold fronts that drape across the SW Atlantic and Gulf region. But things seem likely to stay in check for a while.

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🌀 Sunday afternoon video update on newly-formed Tropical Depression Two (#TD2), expected to impact the Gulf Coast this week. If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named #Bertha. 🌀 There is some uncertainty in the forecast and exact impacts expected in Gulf states. Stay tuned to the NHC forecast this week for any changes, and be prepared for potential hazards in your area.

🌀 Sunday afternoon video update on newly-formed Tropical Depression Two (#TD2), expected to impact the Gulf Coast this week. If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named #Bertha. 🌀 There is some uncertainty in the forecast and exact impacts expected in Gulf states. Stay tuned to the NHC forecast this week for any changes, and be prepared for potential hazards in your area.

26,588 views • 2 days ago

🌀 The 2026 hurricane season officially begins on Monday. Here's my top-level discussion on what to expect throughout the season and over the next couple weeks.

🌀 The 2026 hurricane season officially begins on Monday. Here's my top-level discussion on what to expect throughout the season and over the next couple weeks.

46,521 views • 1 month ago

🌀 Monday video update on Hurricane #Milton, now at Category 5 intensity and expected to bring major impacts to the #Florida Peninsula beginning Wednesday. 🌀 Please know your coastal flooding evacuation zone and leave if you are at risk. Storm surge flooding is likely to extend along a long section of Florida coastline regardless of the exact track of the eye.

🌀 Monday video update on Hurricane #Milton, now at Category 5 intensity and expected to bring major impacts to the #Florida Peninsula beginning Wednesday. 🌀 Please know your coastal flooding evacuation zone and leave if you are at risk. Storm surge flooding is likely to extend along a long section of Florida coastline regardless of the exact track of the eye.

134,389 views • 1 year ago

🌀 Tuesday video update on Tropical Storm #Helene, expected to impact #Florida as a significant hurricane beginning as early as Wednesday, with landfall expected on Thursday. 🌀 Dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding are expected. Visit the National Hurricane Center website and the National Weather Service for the latest expectation for hazards in your local area. 🌀Be prepared and stay safe this week!

🌀 Tuesday video update on Tropical Storm #Helene, expected to impact #Florida as a significant hurricane beginning as early as Wednesday, with landfall expected on Thursday. 🌀 Dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding are expected. Visit the National Hurricane Center website and the National Weather Service for the latest expectation for hazards in your local area. 🌀Be prepared and stay safe this week!

111,121 views • 1 year ago

🌀 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches 🌀 This video provides a brief overview of current expectations for how active the season will be 🌀 Remember that anyone can be hit by a hurricane in any given year 🌀 The best thing you can do is be prepared. Know your local vulnerability to storm surge, fresh water flooding, and wind exposure. Have a hurricane plan and adequate supplies stashed away just in case a storm comes your way. Everyone stay safe this season!

🌀 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches 🌀 This video provides a brief overview of current expectations for how active the season will be 🌀 Remember that anyone can be hit by a hurricane in any given year 🌀 The best thing you can do is be prepared. Know your local vulnerability to storm surge, fresh water flooding, and wind exposure. Have a hurricane plan and adequate supplies stashed away just in case a storm comes your way. Everyone stay safe this season!

75,766 views • 1 year ago

🌀 Monday video update on catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa, nearing its final approach to #Jamaica. Hoping everyone in the path finds shelter and stays safe.

🌀 Monday video update on catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa, nearing its final approach to #Jamaica. Hoping everyone in the path finds shelter and stays safe.

49,152 views • 8 months ago

🌀 Tuesday video update on Major Hurricane #Milton, expected to bring extreme impacts to portions of west-central #Florida on Wednesday/Thursday and significant impacts to much of the Florida Peninsula. 🌀 Please be smart and safe this week and heed evacuation orders from local officials. Storm surge inundation at the coastline is the most life-threatening hurricane hazard.

🌀 Tuesday video update on Major Hurricane #Milton, expected to bring extreme impacts to portions of west-central #Florida on Wednesday/Thursday and significant impacts to much of the Florida Peninsula. 🌀 Please be smart and safe this week and heed evacuation orders from local officials. Storm surge inundation at the coastline is the most life-threatening hurricane hazard.

97,031 views • 1 year ago

🌀 Friday (long!) video update on Hurricane #Humberto and Invest #94L (likely to develop and be named #Imelda) 🌀 While uncertainty in this complex forecast remains elevated, risk of life-threatening impacts to the southeastern US continues to increase. Follow your local National Weather Service forecast office and National Hurricane Center for the latest local and regional information. Be prepared and have a plan of action for safeguarding life and property.

🌀 Friday (long!) video update on Hurricane #Humberto and Invest #94L (likely to develop and be named #Imelda) 🌀 While uncertainty in this complex forecast remains elevated, risk of life-threatening impacts to the southeastern US continues to increase. Follow your local National Weather Service forecast office and National Hurricane Center for the latest local and regional information. Be prepared and have a plan of action for safeguarding life and property.

48,901 views • 9 months ago

🌀 Saturday video discussion on newly-formed Tropical Storm #Milton in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to intensify and hit #Florida as a hurricane next week. 🌀 There remains uncertainty in how strong the storm will be and exactly where it makes landfall, but significant impacts to much of the western Florida coastline are likely regardless of these details.

🌀 Saturday video discussion on newly-formed Tropical Storm #Milton in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to intensify and hit #Florida as a hurricane next week. 🌀 There remains uncertainty in how strong the storm will be and exactly where it makes landfall, but significant impacts to much of the western Florida coastline are likely regardless of these details.

85,542 views • 1 year ago

🌀 Monday video discussion on Invest #98L, expected to develop into a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea this week and raise flooding risks in the region.

🌀 Monday video discussion on Invest #98L, expected to develop into a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea this week and raise flooding risks in the region.

43,181 views • 9 months ago

🌀 Tuesday video discussion on Tropical Storm #Erin, tracking westward across the eastern Atlantic. 🌀 Erin's forecast track takes it north of but fairly close to the Leeward Islands of the northeastern Caribbean. This region should monitor the forecast and be prepared for potential impacts.

🌀 Tuesday video discussion on Tropical Storm #Erin, tracking westward across the eastern Atlantic. 🌀 Erin's forecast track takes it north of but fairly close to the Leeward Islands of the northeastern Caribbean. This region should monitor the forecast and be prepared for potential impacts.

41,987 views • 11 months ago

🌀 Monday video discussion on a new storm developing in the Caribbean that will eventually be named #Helene (currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine or #PTC9) 🌀 This storm is likely to become a significant hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, ultimately making landfall in #Florida 🌀 Impacts to #CaymanIslands, western #Cuba, and eastern #Mexico expected through Wednesday morning with Hurricane Watches issued 🌀 A quick track across the Gulf of Mexico could bring impacts from storm surge, wind, and rain to #Florida as soon as Wednesday morning, spreading northward through Thursday. There is still uncertainty in the exact locations of these impacts, but hurricane plans should be activated.

🌀 Monday video discussion on a new storm developing in the Caribbean that will eventually be named #Helene (currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine or #PTC9) 🌀 This storm is likely to become a significant hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, ultimately making landfall in #Florida 🌀 Impacts to #CaymanIslands, western #Cuba, and eastern #Mexico expected through Wednesday morning with Hurricane Watches issued 🌀 A quick track across the Gulf of Mexico could bring impacts from storm surge, wind, and rain to #Florida as soon as Wednesday morning, spreading northward through Thursday. There is still uncertainty in the exact locations of these impacts, but hurricane plans should be activated.

68,482 views • 1 year ago

🌀 Thursday video update on Tropical Storm #Melissa, expected to become a strong hurricane as it meanders slowly through the Caribbean

🌀 Thursday video update on Tropical Storm #Melissa, expected to become a strong hurricane as it meanders slowly through the Caribbean

34,036 views • 9 months ago

🌀 Thursday video update on Tropical Storm #Humberto and Invest #94L (would be named #Imelda if it develops). 🌀 These two storms are raising risks to the #TurksAndCaicos, #Bahamas, southeastern US, and #Bermuda this weekend and next week, though uncertainty remains high. Have a hurricane plan ready to activate just in case.

🌀 Thursday video update on Tropical Storm #Humberto and Invest #94L (would be named #Imelda if it develops). 🌀 These two storms are raising risks to the #TurksAndCaicos, #Bahamas, southeastern US, and #Bermuda this weekend and next week, though uncertainty remains high. Have a hurricane plan ready to activate just in case.

36,279 views • 9 months ago

🌀 Tuesday video update on a tropical disturbance (dubbed "Invest 93L") near #Florida that will be monitored for potential development as it crosses into the northern Gulf. 🌀 Regardless of development, heavy rains over central-northern Florida spreading westward along the north gulf coast will raise flash flooding risks in the region. Stay tuned to your local National Weather Service forecast office for the latest weather hazards in your particular area.

🌀 Tuesday video update on a tropical disturbance (dubbed "Invest 93L") near #Florida that will be monitored for potential development as it crosses into the northern Gulf. 🌀 Regardless of development, heavy rains over central-northern Florida spreading westward along the north gulf coast will raise flash flooding risks in the region. Stay tuned to your local National Weather Service forecast office for the latest weather hazards in your particular area.

39,506 views • 1 year ago

🌀 Friday video update on Tropical Storm #Melissa, now beginning its intensification run toward hurricane status, and bringing life-threatening hazards to multiple Caribbean countries:

🌀 Friday video update on Tropical Storm #Melissa, now beginning its intensification run toward hurricane status, and bringing life-threatening hazards to multiple Caribbean countries:

28,207 views • 9 months ago

🌀 New video update below on Tropical Depression Three (#TD3), which has formed off the southeast US coast with max winds 35 mph, and is expected to make landfall in #SouthCarolina early Sunday. 🌀 Vertical wind shear is keeping the storm broad and asymmetric, with most heavy weather east and northeast of the center. This will also prevent significant strengthening, but a slight increase in max winds could make TD3 a tropical storm (name would be "Chantal") before landfall. 🌀 Primary hazards will be strong winds and rip currents along the entire coastal Carolinas, along with potentially heavy rainfall, confined mostly northeast of the landfall point. Pay attention to information from NWS Charleston, SC, NWS Wilmington, NC, and other local NWS offices for the expected hazards in your particular area.

🌀 New video update below on Tropical Depression Three (#TD3), which has formed off the southeast US coast with max winds 35 mph, and is expected to make landfall in #SouthCarolina early Sunday. 🌀 Vertical wind shear is keeping the storm broad and asymmetric, with most heavy weather east and northeast of the center. This will also prevent significant strengthening, but a slight increase in max winds could make TD3 a tropical storm (name would be "Chantal") before landfall. 🌀 Primary hazards will be strong winds and rip currents along the entire coastal Carolinas, along with potentially heavy rainfall, confined mostly northeast of the landfall point. Pay attention to information from NWS Charleston, SC, NWS Wilmington, NC, and other local NWS offices for the expected hazards in your particular area.

30,069 views • 1 year ago

🌀 Wednesday video update on Hurricane #Rafael, now a Category 2 hurricane and strengthening as it approaches western #Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael's future remains more uncertain than usual due to complex steering currents.

🌀 Wednesday video update on Hurricane #Rafael, now a Category 2 hurricane and strengthening as it approaches western #Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael's future remains more uncertain than usual due to complex steering currents.

37,487 views • 1 year ago

🌀 Wednesday video update on two tropical systems expected to develop and bring impacts to the southwestern Atlantic region this week and next week:

🌀 Wednesday video update on two tropical systems expected to develop and bring impacts to the southwestern Atlantic region this week and next week:

20,543 views • 10 months ago