Truflation
@truflation • 141,175 subscribers
Independent macroeconomic signals provider & indexer | Aggregating 35M+ data points from 70+ providers daily
Videos
🚨 Introducing Truflation Predict Nacho Tracker 🚢 Daily 15-min snapshots of the Strait of Hormuz capturing every unique vessel: tugboats, cargo ships, tankers, container ships. More ships = higher activity = greater reopening probability. Real-time maritime data. Real economic intelligence! ➡️
Truflation40,288 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen
🚨Truflation on FOX Business again: "Kevin Warsh is all about looking for alternative sources for inflation, saying that the government's methods are somewhat outdated and lagging, so again you look at Truflation (...) 1.83% YoY CPI." 🙏 Mike Lee E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
Truflation42,632 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
🚨 So, where is US inflation heading now? 🇺🇸 Markets called it “lower than expected”. But here in the Truflation community, we knew better. It was -exactly- what we expected. But how did we know? 📽️ This video breaks it down—clear as day—showing you how we track inflation and what we expect in the coming months. At Truflation, we process tens of millions of data points daily to update our real-time inflation indicator. Every single day, we: ✅ Ingest fresh data ✅ Categorize & validate it ✅ Upload it to the blockchain ✅ Deliver it directly to you This relentless approach allows us to detect inflation trends an average of 45 days before the BLS prints their numbers. But let’s clear up a common misconception: We are not trying to replicate the BLS absolute values. We have our own methodology to measure inflation 📝—one that we firmly believe reflects REAL inflation. However, because government decisions are based on outdated government data, when we predict BLS CPI prints, we adjust our model in a specific way… How do we predict BLS CPI so accurately? ⛔️We apply a penalty to our own data—yes, essentially, we simulate a scenario where our real-time insights don’t exist. We strip away our immediate access to fresh data and align our weightings with those of the BLS. The result? Our BLS CPI predictions have been extremely accurate—over the past 10 months, our forecasts have had an average deviation of just 0.02% (excluding January, when the BLS changed weightings). 🎯 And while we are happy to know that our community and premium subscribers use our leading indicator for everything from Bitcoin trades and US treasury bonds to FX markets, one thing still amazes us: 🇺🇸 The biggest economy in the world spends over a billion dollars on an institution (BLS) that uses an outdated methodology—just to base one of the world’s most critical decisions (monetary policy changes) on its lagging numbers. Meanwhile, a team of 18 people (myself included—the Truflation intern 🙂), working with less than 1% of that budget, is beating them by almost two months. Why? We can only speculate... But one thing is certain: 🔹 We will always keep exposing real inflation. 🔹 We will always keep spreading the TRUF. Thank you for your support. 🤝 And to those saying prices are only going up… 🚨 Yes, prices are still rising. Lower inflation does NOT mean lower prices. It simply means that prices are increasing at a slower rate. The damage of the past five years of compounded inflation is still being felt—your groceries, rent, and everyday expenses are still far more expensive than they were. And that’s exactly why tracking real-time inflation matters—so we know where we’re heading and no one lies to us. Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸
Truflation293,420 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
🚨 Truflation has recorded a sharp drop (-0.73%) in U.S. inflation over the past few days. Yes, it is real. 🇺🇸 But what does this mean exactly, and how does it relate to upcoming BLS prints? 📽️ The video explains crystal clear how our inflation rate has consistently led BLS trend changes throughout 2024—and what this might signal for 2025. But first… why has this drop occurred? According to Truflation data, the biggest drivers behind this move were: 📉 Transportation Costs Stabilizing – Fuel prices, shipping costs, and logistical expenses have eased, reducing inflationary pressure. ⚡ Utilities Prices Cooling – Energy markets have become more stable, slowing the rise in electricity and gas costs. 🏡 Housing Market Adjustments – Rental price increases have moderated, and housing-related costs are no longer surging at the same pace. 🌍 Supply Chain Normalization – Global supply chains have improved, making pricing more predictable in previously disrupted sectors. 💳 Consumer Behavior Adjustments – Higher interest rates and economic conditions have slowed demand, reducing price pressures in key categories. Interpreting the Trend This decline signals a shift in inflationary momentum, but it does not necessarily indicate broad-based deflation. Instead, it reflects: ✅ Easing cost pressures in sectors that previously saw rapid price hikes. ✅ A mathematical effect from year-over-year calculations at the start of the month. To understand where inflation is heading, month-over-month trends will be crucial—determining whether this is part of a sustained disinflationary trend or just a temporary adjustment. So if history rhymes… The BLS typically catches up to us ~45 days later (sometimes even more), unless they get creative with the numbers 🧐. But here’s an important distinction to remember: We don’t aim to replicate BLS numbers—we have our own methodology for calculating CPI. While absolute values won’t match, the trends do. 📈📉 That’s why Truflation is a leading indicator (RT + 30 Million data points + uploaded in the blockchain), helping you anticipate where BLS inflation prints will pivot—and for how long they’ll stay on the same trend. Transparency and real-time data will be critical this year, especially for FED policy decisions. The government’s handling of tariffs and economic policy could have major implications.🌋 And we’ll be here to report it—up to two months before official data drops. — Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸
Truflation254,037 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Talking at Davos WEF, President Trump said core inflation is 1.6%. And indeed, according to our data, year-over-year core inflation was 1.6% yesterday, now even lower at 1.51%, while our headline CPI inflation is at 1.42% today. The official BLS data core CPI inflation is 2.6% for December and 2.7% for headline inflation. Is Donald J. Trump using the Truflation data?
Truflation67,048 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
Thanks for spreading the TRUF Cathie Wood! 🫡 Cathie to Bloomberg: "...If you look at an indicator called Truflation, it's probably the broadest measure of inflation out there... we could see 2 to 3 (rate) cuts" 📹 Interview with ARK Invest CEO by Bloomberg in 1st comment.
Truflation39,432 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
On a recent podcast, Coinbase 🛡️ CEO Brian Armstrong spoke about the importance of Truflation.
Truflation36,156 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Welcome in 2026! Great changes are on their way, promising fundamental shifts the world hasn't seen since the Industrial Revolution. This is the perfect time to learn, leverage AI and blockchain, and explore new avenues. Truflation's massive data is here to help identify, leverage, and build products around: - real-time market trends, - early buying signals, - business intelligence, - sector shifts, - emerging internet capital markets, and more. All MCP-enabled and ready to be fed into custom AI agents or onchain DeFi protocols. This year, FOMO is real. Don't get left behind.
Truflation12,461 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
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