President Zelenskyy is in Canada today. His visit is... primarily about air defense for Ukraine and how Ukraine can survive the winter. This is the right priority: the sky above Ukrainian cities is currently more important than any concepts. But I would look at this visit more broadly. Canada is currently restructuring its defense policy toward Europe, and Ukraine can take a significantly more important place in this restructuring than is visible from the list of aid packages. We are talking about the Canada–EU–Ukraine triangle. This is not an alternative to NATO, but rather an additional mechanism within Euro-Atlantic security. Why is this happening right now? There are four reasons: the lasting confrontation with Russia, growing threats in the Arctic and North Atlantic, Europe's need to take care of its own defense, and uncertainty regarding the duration, terms and conditions that the US will remain a guarantor of security. I will start with Canada. In 2025, PM Carney said that about 75 cents out of every dollar of Canadian capital defense spending goes to American suppliers. Therefore, Canada is now setting a course toward diversification. At the same time, there are no intentions to sever ties with Washington. Canadian defense-industrial strategy explicitly emphasizes strong relations with the United States. The second Canadian motive is the Arctic. Seven out of eight Arctic states are now in NATO. Russia remains the main military threat in the region, while China is increasingly taking an active interest in resources and routes. But for Ottawa, the North is also a matter of sovereignty. At the Canadian-Nordic Summit in Oslo in March, leaders specifically emphasized the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states. Against the backdrop of disputes surrounding Greenland and talk about a "51st state," a closer security partnership with Europe gives Canada more political support in these matters. And thirdly, let's be honest: in terms of military capabilities, Canada is not a giant. It only plans to reach 2% of GDP on defense this fiscal year. Canada's strength lies in geography and coalitions: in the fact that, together with the US, it secures NORAD while simultaneously building bridges to Europe. And why does Europe need Canada? Because Europe's need is not just weapons, but also the ability to move troops, equipment, and resources across the Atlantic. The JFC Norfolk command, which is responsible for maritime communications between North America and Europe, as of December 2025 also covers Denmark, Finland, and Sweden. The Atlantic, the North, and the East of Europe in NATO planning are increasingly becoming a single space. Canada in this scheme is the other shore of the Atlantic. The most interesting thing is that elements of the Canada-EU-Ukraine triangle are already working. SAFE is the first of them. This is a European concessional loan mechanism for joint defense procurement, worth EUR 150 billion. The main condition is that the money must work for the European defense industry. Therefore, at least 65% of the component value in a contract must be European. Under SAFE rules, items produced in Ukraine count as European, on equal footing with products from EU countries, Norway, or Iceland. Canada was also admitted to the mechanism, becoming the first non-European country to join. Joint production is the second one. In May, the defense ministries of Ukraine and Canada signed an agreement to produce Ukrainian reconnaissance drones in Canada for the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the Airlogix-Sentinel joint venture. Ukraine provides battle-tested technology; Canada provides manufacturing capacity and funding. This is no longer aid, it's a manufacturing partnership. The third one: money. The NATO Ankara Declaration recorded that European allies and Canada are already funding the vast majority of security assistance to Ukraine. The threats facing all three sides are also shared. The most vivid example is underwater infrastructure. According to Reuters that cites two Western officials, in the spring, Britain, Norway, and the US tracked Russian GUGI submersibles that were practicing the use of means for covertly disabling cables near Svalbard. For Canada, this concerns trans-Atlantic communications and Arctic surveillance. For the EU: cables, ports, and energy grids. For Ukraine: energy infrastructure and the Black Sea infrastructure. What does Ukraine bring to this arrangement? We bring experience that neither Canada nor most European armies possess: high-intensity warfare against Russia, mass deployment of drones, electronic warfare, intelligence, and protecting infrastructure under constant attack. Chatham House, in a May report, directly proposes integrating Ukraine into NATO's Eastern Sentry, as well as into the EU's Eastern Flank Watch and Drone Defense Initiative, arguing that Ukrainian solutions could make the defense of the continent against drones more cost-effective. Ukraine, without a full-fledged navy, forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw its main forces from Sevastopol, Crimea. This experience is directly relevant to both the Baltic and the North Atlantic. Shared maritime situational awareness from the Black Sea to the Arctic (Canadian space capabilities, European surveillance programs, and Ukrainian practical experience) would allow monitoring the Russian navy, shadow tankers, and underwater infrastructure as a single theater. Cooperation between Canada and the EU can reduce dependence on unstable supply chains. Canada possesses significant reserves of critical materials, important among other things for the defense industry, whereas the EU depends on China for critical raw materials. Combining Canadian resources, European manufacturing capacity, and Ukrainian technology could create a distinct trans-Atlantic supply chain. Energy cooperation should be long-term. Canada does not yet have sufficient infrastructure on its Atlantic coast to quickly replace Russian energy resources in Europe. However, it can gradually become one of the sources of the EU's energy security. This applies not only to LNG, but also to critical materials, nuclear fuel, and the protection of energy infrastructure. The role of the United Kingdom should not be underestimated, as well. It plays a significant role in the security of the North Atlantic, the GIUK gap, the protection of underwater infrastructure, and the development of the Atlantic Bastion concept, fitting naturally into a broader security system beyond the Canada–EU–Ukraine format. However, this specific triangle holds distinct significance because it combines Canada, European institutions, and Ukraine's gradual integration into the European defense market. Thus, Ukrainian president's visit to Canada does not create a triangle in itself. But it shows that there are elements that are already working: SAFE, where Ukrainian content is counted toward European content; JFC Norfolk, which stitches the Atlantic to the North and East of Europe; Ukrainian drones manufactured in Canada; and funding, the main share of which is already borne by Europe and Canada. The potential for deepening cooperation within the triangle lies in joint projects: air defense and counter-drone measures, maritime situational awareness from the Black Sea to the North Atlantic, protection of underwater infrastructure, and raw material supply chains.show more
