SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT ******1ST CALL MAP****** 🎄... Merry Christmas to YOU!!! A pretty sizable snowstorm is expected across the region Friday night, with snow developing as early as Friday evening. I am very confident in a widespread 6–10" snowfall for a large portion of the Tri-State area, with lower confidence closer to NYC, Long Island, and the Jersey Shore where mixing remains a concern. At this time, I am keeping some mixing in play in central NJ/Long Island, but I’m not totally sold on how aggressive it becomes. While 4–6" looks like a very solid floor, several areas could easily boom to 6"+ if colder air locks in faster and holds longer than currently modeled. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. I could easily pull this zone into NYC and Nassau County as we see more model data. ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates, keeping this mostly snow and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) and into Suffolk County, which would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts. 📺 On TV now with the latest on PIX11 Newsshow more

⭐️❄️ 1ST CALL SNOW MAP ❄️⭐️ I’m comfortable enough... now to put real numbers on a forecast map — not raw model output, but a forecast built from actual meteorological reasoning. This forecast is based on: • Snow ratios • Lower DGZ placement • Front-end focused snowfall • Dry dew points early • Mixing potential near 800 mb (~6,000 ft) as coastal redevelopment occurs 🩶 ZONE 1: 4–6" Lower Manhattan • Long Island • NJ Coast • Philadelphia The front end of this storm should deliver 4–6" of snow, with locally higher amounts, before a transition to sleet and possibly freezing rain. ⚠️ I do NOT see this turning into “just rain.” Ground temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20s — meaning freezing rain is a legitimate concern and should not be ignored. 🟦 ZONE 2: 6–10" Interior North/Central NJ • North Shore LI • Upper Boroughs • Lower Westchester • Lower Fairfield CT Soundings support some sleet here, but also a longer-duration front-end snowfall. This is a challenging transition zone — and there is still a realistic scenario where no meaningful changeover occurs due to strong dynamics. ➡️ Higher-end totals are very much on the table. 🟪 ZONE 3: 10–15" NW NJ • Poconos • Lower Hudson Valley • Central CT This area benefits from very high snow ratios for nearly 90% of the storm before eventually shifting to wetter snow. I am very confident that areas in purple do not switch to sleet or freezing rain. This is the jackpot zone. 📌 SIDE THOUGHTS This is my First Call. Adjustments will be made. Forecasting for more than 7+ million homes is never perfect — especially in a setup with this many microclimates and boundary-layer challenges. But this is the best possible forecast with the data we have right now. More updates coming. Stay tuned ON tv UNTIL 10AM PIX11 News ❄️📺show more

❄️ 2ND CALL SNOW MAP UPDATE ❄️ A few... key corrections south to account for slightly higher QPF in some model trends... I’ve made some adjustments to the snowfall map, shifting totals a bit farther south to better account for areas where the front end snowfall Sunday morning/afternoon will be higher due to increased moisture levels. This would still account for sleet and warm air intrusion around the 5,000-ft level which still may become an issue. That warm layer will cut into some late storm accumulations once the dry air is overcome. 🔹 Coastal Monmouth & Ocean Counties I now expect at least 6" in eastern Monmouth, with max potentials up to 10". This is the assumption of sleet mixing. 🔹 Long Island Included in the 6–10" range, with some mixing limiting higher totals in spots. 🔹 NYC & Northern Long Island The most common snowfall totals will be a 10–15" range which is not uniform across the entire area. Some locations will fall short due to brief mixing. 🔹 Snow Max Zone The highest potential remains over northern NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest CT, where: • Snow ratios will be higher • Frontogenesis banding is most likely • Lift will be strongest ➡️ Snowfall max potential: up to 18" in this corridor. Bottom line: This remains a high-impact winter storm. Small changes in the mid-level temperatures will make a big difference, especially near the coast. I’ll continue fine-tuning as we get closer. PIX11 Newsshow more

❄️ One thing that’s NOT being talked about enough:... Snow Ratios with this Storm could be WAY higher than 10:1, meaning there's a chance our Storm OVERPERFORMS A normal storm is around 10:1 (10 inches of snow from 1 inch of liquid). But when Arctic air is in place, snowflakes grow lighter, fluffier, and more efficient, and ratios SKYROCKET. Our Storm has: ✅ Arctic air firmly in place ✅ Ideal snow forming temps aloft (-12°F to -24°F) ✅ A very solid upper-level temperature profile ➡️ That supports 12:1 or even 15:1 snow ratios in spots. Every inch of liquid turns into WAY more snow. ⬇️ Bottom line: This is the kind of setup where storms *could OVERPERFORM. I would not be surprised if some areas push close to 1.5 FEET of Snow where ratios are highest. Now, I do think the Kuchera Snow Ratios are overdone, but they are likely closer than the simple 10:1 Snow ratios being show everywhere. Going to be VERY interesting to watch, my Snow-loving brotheren 👀❄️show more

❄️ SNOWFALL REPORT: Week of 1/18 – 1/25 ❄️... This is a another BIG one. A HIGH IMPACT Winter Storm could develop late this upcoming week, with the potential to bring Heavy Snow and Ice to parts of the country. 🌨️ The heaviest Snow will likely fall on the north side of this storm Friday - Sunday, wherever it ultimately tracks. As we move through the week, I would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches and Warnings issued as it becomes more clear where this storm will setup. ❄️When it comes to exact locations and Snow totals, we are still WAY too far out to pin that down. That said, the most likely SNOW ZONE appears to be somewhere within the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, though this will almost certainly shift as we get closer. ❄️Elsewhere, the Midwest will see a few rounds of light to moderate Snow Monday through Wednesday as a series of Alberta Clippers pass through. These should be minor systems, generally producing a few inches. ❄️ Boston, NYC, and parts of the Northeast will start the week with a healthy dose of Snow, with 4-5 inches possible by Monday morning. 🏔️ Out West, the Rocky Mountains from Colorado through Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho should pick up significant Mountain Snow, with over a foot possible in higher elevations. 🏔️The Cascades in Washington and Oregon will also see Snowfall, with a few feet possible in favored areas. ❄️The MAIN THING to remember this week: whoever gets hit by the late week Winter Storm could get A LOT of Snow, but there will also be plenty of busts nearby. That’s the nature of these storms. 👀 I’ll be watching this late week storm LIKE A HAWK 🦅and will post updated maps as details become clearer. ❄️ Get ready, my brotheren. This is shaping up to be an exciting week of weather tracking. May the odds of Snow be ever in your favorshow more

🚨 An absolutely LUDICROUS amount of Snow is about... to fall out West as a TRAIN of Storms pushes onshore. ❌This comes as our West Coast brotheren have been dealing with RECORD low Snowpack, with many ski resorts forced to close parts of their mountains due to a lack of Snow. That is ALL about to change next week as an Atmospheric River delivers a near constant FEED of moisture into the West. ❄️ The heaviest Snow remains on track to fall in the Sierra Nevada, where 4 to 8 FEET or more could pile up early this week. 🏔️ Heavy Snow will also dump into the Rockies, including Colorado and Utah. Here, 1 Foot or more could fall over several days. 🌲 The Cascades will see PLENTY of Snow as well, with 1 to 2 FEET likely in the higher elevations. 🌧️ Lower elevations along the West Coast, including Seattle, could see a few Snow Flakes mix in, but little to no accumulation is expected. ✅This is FANTASTIC news for our mountain loving brotheren out West who have been DYING for Snow. It will also do wonders for the California and Rocky Mountain Snowpack, which desperately needs the boost. 👊 Enjoy the Snow, my mountain loving brotheren.show more

🚨 People across the South need to start preparing... for a potentially HISTORIC Winter Storm this weekend. 🧊Models continues to point toward a Major Ice Storm combined with a multi day period of Snow and Freezing Rain, with wintry precipitation lasting from Friday into Monday morning in some areas. That duration alone raises MASSIVE red flags. 📊 Nearly every major weather model and its ensembles are now on board with this scenario, showing widespread Ice Accumulations that could reach 0.5 to 1 inch in spots. Anything over 0.25 inches is destructive, with a high risk of widespread power outages and roads that are undrivable. 🌨️ Snow Totals could also be significant, with areas that normally see NO SNOW ALL YEAR, picking up 6 inches or significantly more in parts of the South. 📍 The areas most at risk include Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. This is a serious setup with the potential for long lasting and far reaching impacts. I would start at least coming up with a plan in case roads are hazardous this weekend. 👀 I’ll stay on this closely, my brotheren.show more

🚨 The Western US is about to get RAILED... by Snow. This begins early next week as an Atmospheric River of Moisture absolutely BLASTS the West Coast. ❄️ The heaviest Snow will fall in the Sierra Nevada, where up to 100 inches, nearly 8 FEET, could pile up mainly Monday through Wednesday. 🏔️ Heavy Snow is also likely in the Rockies, where places like Colorado and Utah have been STARVED for Snow. Multiple waves of Moisture could bring 1 Foot or more over several days. 🏔️ The Cascades get in on the action too, with up to 1 Foot or more possible. Some Snow arrives this weekend, with another stronger round next Wednesday. 🌧️ Lower elevations in California and Washington could see Flooding Rain, with localized totals pushing 3 inches or more. Overall, this is WELCOME news for our West Coast brotheren who have seen very little Snow over the past month. 👊 Enjoy the Snow and Rain, my brotheren.show more

⬆️The NORTHERN TRENDS are holding (for now) in the... latest 12z model runs that came in just now. ❄️ Most Guidance now places the heaviest Snow Zone from Oklahoma through southern Missouri, Kentucky, southern Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and into the lower Northeast. 🌨️ Snow Totals in the hardest hit areas will likely accumulate to 6–12 inches, with someone likely topping a Foot+. ↕️More Shifts are still likely over the next 48 hours, so I’ll continue posting updates as trends evolve. 🧊 FREEZING RAIN STILL remains a major concern in the South, with devastating Ice Accumulations still possible in some areas. These northern shifts do NOT change the overall impact. This is still a HIGH IMPACT Winter Storm for millions. More updates to come. I’m pulling for EPIC Snow for all of you. 👊 See you on the next one, my brotherenshow more

❄️ SNOWFALL REPORT: This Week (12/1) More snow is... on the way as a series of storm systems sweeps across the country, bringing brutal cold temperatures behind them. Here’s a breakdown of each Storm ⬇️ 1️⃣Everything kicks off Tuesday morning with our first storm, bringing widespread accumulating snow from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The jackpot looks to be the interior Northeast, where 4-8” are possible. Along the coast (NYC, Boston, DC), expect mostly rain. 2️⃣Later in the week, a second storm may take a similar track, bringing another round of accumulating snow to the Northeast. Details are still TBD, but snow is definitely on the table. 🥶Behind both storms, the Polar Vortex will dip into the U.S., delivering a surge of very cold air - highs in the 20s, 30s, and 40s across the eastern U.S. It’s going to be a fun week 😎❄️show more

❄️An OBSCENE amount of Snow is about to DUMP... in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, with the heaviest still to come. Over 72 inches of snow could fall on Christmas Day alone. An almost nonstop stream of Pacific moisture will continue for the next 48 hours as an atmospheric river remains locked in. 🗻Some Mountain locations have already picked up 1–2 feet, with snow falling at 1–3 inches per hour at times. 🚗Travel in the mountains will remain difficult to impossible as heavy snow and strong winds create near blizzard conditions. 🎅When people asked for a White Christmas… this might be too much of a good thing. Merry Christmas, everybody🎄❄️show more

Weekend Storm Update Despite what you might have heard…... I am STILL tracking the potential for a significant snow event this weekend. If it happens, the snow would arrive Sunday afternoon/evening. Model Guidance has been all over the place but I’ve been fairly consistent with my message: This looks like a Miller B Nor’Easter. Miller B storms typically have a mix line that sets up along I-78/I-80 in eastern PA and NJ. The European Model suggests that mix changes over to heavy snow as this storm strengthens. Whether or not that actually happens is pure speculation at this point. There are some non-linear processes that need to go exactly correct for this storm to produce significant snow. If not, the storm could miss off to the south. So nothing is set in stone yet, but the threat remains. ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage #wxtwitter #wxX #PAwxshow more

⚠️ Our Storm is going into absolute LUDICROUS MODE... tonight as BOMBGENESIS is fully underway. ⬇️This Blizzard is DROPPING Pressure like Weight on a KETO Diet and is expected to shed another 18mb in just 12 hours. For context, meteorologists define rapid intensification as a 24mb drop in 24 hours. Our Storm is on pace to drop over 40mb in 24 hours. This is EXTREME Rapid Intensification 💨 As pressure PLUMMETS offshore, the Storm will begin SUCKING air toward its center like a vacuum, causing Winds to really CRANK. ❄️ As the Winds strengthen, a HUGE swath of Heavy Snow continues spreading across the Northeast, with snowfall rates SOARING up to 3 to 4 inches per hour. 📏Places in New Jersey have already picked up close to 10 inches of Snow, with DOUBLE that still possible before this is over. There's even LIGHTNING STRIKES near the center of the Storm, which is sign of rapid strengthening. The stronger this Storm gets, the worse the impacts become. 👊 Hang on tight tonight, my brotheren. The sun will rise tomorrowshow more

🔥 A MAJOR Thaw is coming NEXT WEEK for... our Eastern brotheren as the weather pattern completely flips. 🌡️Temperatures will FINALLY rise above freezing for many areas that have been dealing with Siberian level Cold and Snow for weeks. 🫠 Mountains of Snow that have been sitting in parking lots and along roads since the last storm will finally begin to melt away. 🥶 Meanwhile, the Western US turns colder, with increased chances for Snow as the pattern shifts west. 👀 This warmth arrives AFTER another Cold Blast this weekend, so one more punch of Cold is still on the way. 🤔 The big question is how long does the warmth last? Some models keep milder air in place into the middle to late part of February, while most suggest the Thaw is short lived with Winter returning to the East. Enjoy the Thaw next week, my brotheren 👊 It may not last.show more

🎿❄️ SERIOUS Mountain Snow incoming for the Cascades and... Sierra Nevada and skiers are about to be VERY happy. Up to 8 FEET or more of snow could fall in just a few days, creating extremely dangerous travel at higher elevations, especially through mountain passes. Strong winds will make conditions even worse, with gusts possibly reaching 70 mph, leading to near-zero visibility at times. I wouldn’t be surprised if some ski resorts temporarily close due to too much snow, especially around Lake Tahoe, where the biggest totals are expected. I’ve been there before. At least someone is getting a White Christmas 🎄❄️show more

🚨 A MASSIVE Shift happened overnight with the Weather... Models that has pushed the heaviest Snow Zone roughly 200 miles north ⬆️ ❄️ This means areas like Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and even parts of the Northeast may now see higher Snow totals than previously expected. 🧊 On the flip side, this shift also increases the risk of Sleet and Freezing Rain for areas that were hoping for Snow, including Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Virginia, and the Carolinas. ⚠️ IMPORTANT: These shifts DO NOT remove the threat of a CRIPPLING Ice Storm in the South. That risk has not changed. Places like Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Virginia, and the Carolinas should prepare NOW for potentially crippling ice accumulations. ‼️WE ARE STILL EXPECTING MORE SHIFTS IN THE FUTURE. But this is now a Trend we need to watch CLOSELY‼️ 👀 I’ll keep watching the models LIKE A HAWK 🦅 👊 See you on the next one, my brotherenshow more

⚠️A POWERFUL Bomb Cyclone is set to slam Europe... on Thursday as it tracks through the English Channel, bringing Heavy Snow, Strong Wind, and Rain. 💨 Hurricane force Wind Gusts are possible along parts of the French coast, with wind gusts expected to exceed 70mph as the storm rapidly "bombs out". ❄️ On the back side of the storm, Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions could develop across parts of England, as cold air wraps in behind the system and winds absolutely CRANK. ⚠️ This is a high impact, fast moving storm, capable of producing major travel disruptions, power outages, and dangerous conditions across multiple countries. Normally, I stick to US Weather, but this will be a very impactful Storm for our European Brotheren so I thought it was worth covering. Heads up my European Brotherenshow more

Trend towards some #snow around #Chicago for later Saturday... into Sunday is still on the board Now 4 of 5 models put some snow into the area as the monster winter storm passes well to our south Frosty fly in the ointment is the impact of lake effect snow materializing, or not. That’s the difference of a little to 3”, or the 8-9” advertised by the UK model Short range hi res models still 2 days out til we see that, but wording has dropped into the official long range NWS forecast for this chance of snow for the 2nd half of the weekend All of this of course follows our deepest freeze in 7 years that kicks in about midnight Thursday and will get some -30° and dare I say -40° wind chills by sunrise Friday. Talk about model agreement? 14 models all go at least -20°show more

⚠️A VERY ACTIVE Weather Pattern is setting up next... week, bringing MULTIPLE chances for major Winter Storms to sweep through the US. 🥶👊🔥This setup features a BATTLEGROUND of Warm Tropical Air clashing with Frigid Polar Air, creating an environment that is ripe for Winter Storm development. ❓Specific storm details are still VERY much up in the air, and we should not treat any single model run as gospel at this point. I'm only showing this GFS run as an example. 🌨️ The key takeaway is that the pattern is right, and Heavy Snow, Ice, and Wind are all on the table somewhere across the country. ❄️ Hang in there, my US Snow brotheren. More details to come....show more

‼️I don't think people are grasping how MISERABLE this... Winter Storm will be. This Winter Storm will be NOTHING like last week’s storm❌ 🥶 Portions of the Carolinas will turn into SIBERIA on Saturday, as Hurricane Force Wind gusts and close to a FOOT of Snow fall at the same time. 🌀 Our Storm is what’s called a BOMB CYCLONE, meaning it is a rapidly strengthening Low Pressure System. 💨 Instead of a calm, steady Snow, conditions will be ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL inside the core of the storm as Blizzard like Snow and Wind WHIP around. 🌡️ On top of that, Temperatures will be Frigid, with Wind Chills close to 0. I’ll have another update later tonight, but right now this is looking like a BIG ONE for our Carolina brotheren. More to come my brotheren. 👊❄️show more