The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by... both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation levelshow more

Backing Off on Attacks Against Iran At the request... of Arab countries and Israel, the US has decided to indefinitely postpone plans to attack Iran. There are three points in this equation: 1 - Missiles would fly toward Israel without the country having prepared for it; 2 - The Strait of Hormuz would be closed, causing immense losses to oil-producing countries; 3 - American assets in the region would not be sufficient. I’ve said it several times here: Iran is a big player. In the 12-day war, the Iranian navy stayed out of the conflict, but today, knowing that the attack would be aimed at regime change, the Iranians would use everything they have. In those 12 days they practically lost nothing of their arsenal; not even long-range defense systems were destroyed. They hid everything, from aircraft to long range batteries. But today they would fight with everything they have. And that mainly means their three primary anti-ship missiles: Abu Mahdi, Talaiyeh, and Ghadr-380 (Qadr-380). All three with a range of 1,000–1,700 km. That is power not only to close the Strait of Hormuz, but to do the same in the Gulf of Aden and the part of Arabian Sea, causing chaos in the markets. How to take the opportunity and support the riots, without risking the main global trade route? A country of 90 million inhabitants that is as well-armed as Iran is not one that external agents can decide overnight to attack and change its government. For more than 50 years, the CIA and Mossad have been trying to overthrow the Iranian government without success. Now the regime is in a fragile moment, under popular pressure, but when we talk about Iran, nothing is so clear. The US options are limited to selective strikes, far from anything that could implode the regime. The truth is that anything of greater magnitude would put the regime in survival mode, attacking Israel, American bases, closing ship transit, and halting global markets. But I don’t think the US and Israel will let this opportunity pass so easily. New chapters will follow.show more

Why Jamming the Venezuelan Systems Is Unlikely Well, when... I hear about jamming in Venezuela, I immediately picture the Americans talking about the EA-18G Growler with the NGJ. The NGJ is specifically designed to degrade advanced Russian radars, with high power and directional AESA beams. To cover an area the size of Caracas would require multiple squadrons, and there were indeed a lot of birds in the sky, but… jamming such a large area with diverse systems on high alert is extremely complex and improbable. The radars of the S-300VM use rapid frequency hopping to avoid continuous jamming, along with LPI modes that reduce the radar’s signature, making it difficult for jammers like the NGJ to detect and interfere. The Buk-M2 has similar ECCM capabilities, with high resistance to noise jamming. This isn’t to say the Americans can’t do it, but sustaining it continuously across so many dispersed batteries is unlikely. Additionally, both the Buk-M2 and the Pechora-2M have electro-optical/TV/IR channels as backups, allowing tracking without active radar in heavy jamming scenarios. If they were being operated, it would have been impossible for those helicopters to fly over Caracas. And finally, systems like the S-300 have Home-on-Jam (HOJ) capability, a mode in which the missile is fired directly at the jamming source (electronic interference) as a passive target. With so many aircraft in the sky, I’d say it would be impossible to shut down all the radars in perfect synchronization against a hypersonic missile. Lastly, there are the MANPADS that were not used. We saw helicopters flying extremely low with no reaction whatsoever from MANPADS, which would have been effective in that situation. Well, this has nothing to do with jammers and everything to do with orders not to fire. I’m not here saying that American EW with F-35 + Growler + NGJ cannot overcome these defenses in some scenarios, but rather stating that, given the scale and the conditions, it is unlikely that this is the reason for the silence of the Venezuelan air defenses.show more

Iran continues to wipe out Israeli and American assets... in the Middle East while Trump and the Epstein clique scramble to find an offramp. The Straight of Hormuz remains closed! The IRGC announced the launch of the 43rd missile wave targeting the U.S. Fifth Fleet, Tel Aviv, and Eilat. According to the IRGC, the strike involved Khorramshahr missiles with 2-ton warheads, as well as Emad and Kheibar Shekan missiles carrying 1-ton warheads. Iranian missile forces wrote “Vaccine for pedos – Made in Iran” on a ballistic missile before launching it toward a U.S. military base. Iran has stepped up attacks on American warships! US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the deployment of US warships to escort tankers in the Persian Gulf will happen "relatively soon, but not now". According to him, it's impossible to do this right now because the US is simply not ready for it. Given that the IRGC would consider it an honor to sink an American destroyer where it's easiest to reach it, the task facing the US is not trivial. Meanwhile the kosher mafia criminals continue to flee occupied Palestine like the rats they are! Check out this top gun pilot! An American F/A-18F aircraft crashed while attempting to land on the aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln" after returning from a bombing mission in Iran. The ejection seat failed to deploy, causing the plane to crash into the water. The pilot was successfully rescued!show more

Kudos to Kevin Kisner getting the REAL issue when... it comes to the modern golf ball… While discussing the ball Ray Floyd used to win the 1986 U.S. Open at Shinnecock, he correctly references SPIN more than SPEED. Yes, the modern ball flys WAY farther, but the easiest fix would be to mandate more spin on the ball. The worst part of the ball traveling insane distances is that, because of no real spin, the mishits do not go off line NEARLY as much as they used to. If the spin returned, hitting a 350 yard drive would carry with it the HUGE risk of a mishit heading for deep trouble, even bringing many out of bounds back into play. As a result, not only would hitting a driver create far more drama than it currently does, it would cause most players to self regulate by hitting 3-woods and irons off the tee to keep the ball in play. This would effectively solve the distance problem because it would cause significantly longer shots to be played into the greens. Please, USGA PGA of America PGA of AmericaTOUR The Masters The R&A THIS is the path!show more

‼️‼️🇷🇺⚔️🇪🇪 An expert report by European Council on Foreign... Relations outlines two possible scenarios for a Russian attack on Estonia. 1. Direct invasion — a rapid seizure of Narva and a potential advance toward Tallinn, aimed at shocking NATO and forcing negotiations over a so-called “pause.” • Around 40,000 Russian ground forces are deployed near the borders of the Baltic states, while Estonia’s armed forces number approximately 43,000 personnel in total. Experts assess that Russia would be unable to employ its full force, giving Estonia a numerical advantage. • Within two days, reinforced forces from neighboring NATO countries would arrive in Estonia. Within hours, allied air power—supported by air defense—would secure air superiority. • As a result, such an invasion would amount to a strategic catastrophe for Moscow. 🔴 Within days, Russia would face a choice: withdraw, face destruction, or escalate into a full-scale war with NATO, the report states. 2. Hybrid attack (annexation) — assessed by experts as the most likely scenario. This would be preceded by an information campaign and claims of discrimination against Russian-speaking populations, cyberattacks, and unrest in Narva. Subsequently, small special forces units or airborne troops could appear in the city. See the latest updates with us: NSTRIKEshow more

Elon just clarified the plan for building the TERAFAB.... The Advanced Technology Fab built at Giga Texas will not be “the TERAFAB.” It will be a smaller fab where they will iterate on chip designs. The TERAFAB wouldn’t even fit on the Giga Texas campus. Several sites for the TERAFAB are under consideration, and it will need thousands of acres and over 10 GW of power at full scale. My opinion: To put this in perspective, Tesla would need 2,000-5,000 acres for the entire TERAFAB lot. This would equal ~87-200 million square feet of available land space for power and battery backup with Megapacks, with ~20-60 million square feet of available space for the actual building. Just for reference, backing up a facility like this with a ~5-15 minute battery backup would require 168 Megapacks and it would for sure need its own power production such as natural gas turbines or maybe even its own dedicated power plant. Here's Grok's representation of the Tesla TERAFAB!show more

BREAKING: Iran fired ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv overnight... using cluster munitions. Process what that means. A conventional warhead hits one point. A cluster warhead releases dozens of submunitions, each weighing 2 to 5 kilograms of high-explosive fragmentation, scattering across a wide area after re-entry. One missile becomes dozens of weapons. The fire rate has collapsed from 90 missiles per day on Day 1 to approximately 10 on Day 24. Iran has 140 launchers remaining. The mathematics of 10 missiles per day sounds manageable until each missile contains a warhead that multiplies into dozens of independent kill zones across a city. Overnight impacts confirmed in the Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan area. Sirens across central Israel. Kiryat Shmona hit again in the north. Damage to buildings. Injuries reported. Magen David Adom responding. The IDF confirms cluster submunitions were deployed. Footage shows dispersal patterns consistent with Khorramshahr-4 warheads, each carrying 1,500 kilograms at Mach 8 to 16 with MIRV-capable cluster dispensers. Israel’s multi-layered defence is designed to intercept the parent missile before dispersal. Iron Dome handles short and medium range. David’s Sling covers the intermediate gap. Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 engage ballistic threats at altitude. The strategy works when the intercept happens above the dispersal altitude. When it does not, when a missile penetrates the outer layers and reaches its terminal phase, the submunitions scatter and no system can intercept dozens of 2-kilogram bomblets falling across a residential area simultaneously. Iran has lost 70 percent of its launchers. Its fire rate is 89 percent lower than Day 1. Its navy is destroyed. Its air force is gone. And it is still putting cluster munitions over Tel Aviv. That is not desperation. That is adaptation. Iran cannot match the volume of Day 1. So it changed the payload. Fewer missiles, each one carrying more weapons inside it. The fire rate declined. The lethality per round increased. The shift from conventional to cluster warheads is Iran compensating for launcher attrition with warhead complexity. The arithmetic of the war just changed from “how many missiles” to “how many submunitions per missile.” This is what makes the electricity ledger so dangerous. Iran has publicly absorbed strikes on hospitals, schools, and emergency centres without reciprocating against equivalent Israeli civilian infrastructure. It is conserving its 140 remaining launchers for the one target category it has reserved: electricity. If the 5-day power-plant pause collapses Saturday and Trump executes his threat, those 140 launchers will fire cluster-armed Khorramshahr-4s at Gulf and Israeli power stations, desalination plants, and grid nodes. A single cluster warhead detonating over a transformer yard does not damage it. It saturates it with dozens of bomblets that destroy equipment across the entire facility footprint. Cluster munitions are not designed for military targets. They are designed for area denial. And a power grid is the ultimate area target. Saturday is four days away. The launchers are armed with cluster warheads. The ledger is open. The targets are named. The only thing standing between the cluster munitions and the grid is a 5-day pause announced on a social media platform that Iran says does not correspond to any agreement it has made.show more

What if any preparations have you seen Iran make... ahead of the war? Can you discuss It’s missile capabilities? Any intelligence capabilities? Any surprises it might happen in store? When the 12-day war ended, I estimated that Iran would need about six months to recover, including its nuclear program. Contrary to popular belief, Iran did not lose its entire long-range or medium-range air defense network; while some launchers were damaged, the primary targets of the Israeli strikes were the radar systems. Once the radars were neutralized, Iran successfully hid the bulk of its remaining batteries, leaving much of its arsenal intact. In contrast, short-range systems like the Tor-M1 and domestic variants were heavily engaged against cruise missiles, often being lost or damaged only after their ammunition was completely exhausted. Since then, Iran has worked to rebuild its destroyed radar network and, above all, to implement a genuine counterintelligence doctrine. The Mossad operations against Iranian radars and air defense systems have shaped new perimeter defense and counterintelligence doctrines not only in Iran but in other countries as well. If we look at the quantity of weapons and the organization of armed groups during Iran’s most recent protests, I would say the problem of foreign intelligence operations inside the country remains severe. This seriously threatens much of Iran’s capabilities, and I foresee a wave of sabotage operations as a new war draws closer. Iran has begun receiving collaboration from China across multiple areas,from satellites to internal counterintelligence, but it may still take some time for this to produce tangible results. During the last years, the Mossad relied heavily on cell phones, using SMS for recruitment and accessing device GPS for target location. Iran has since focused intensely on preventing any repetition of this, and on this specific issue, the Chinese appear to have provided support. Although foreign intelligence services have operated extensively inside Iran, the scale of any armed opposition groups is negligible compared to the Iranian armed forces, which could still draw on allied paramilitaries and militias in neighboring countries, including the Houthis. Iran has become a missile power with a stockpile far larger than Western estimates suggest. As early as 1998, Iran was already producing missiles with ranges exceeding 1,000 km, and it has continued doing so ever since, developing 12 to 15 different models in that range - meaning all are capable of reaching Israel. That is nearly 30 years of continuous missile production, resulting in a stockpile of several thousands. Another area where Iran has emerged as a global power is drones, including underwater ones. Iran’s UUVs have evolved rapidly into mass-produced models with integrated AI, and I believe they hold some major surprises in reserve. A key point today is that the AN/TPY-2 radars, which played a critical role in tracking Iranian missiles, would be among the first targets to be engaged. These high-powered X-band radars are the backbone of regional missile defense, providing essential data to THAAD and Patriot batteries. However, because they are large, stationary, and emit high-energy signals, they are highly vulnerable to a first-strike or saturation attack, which would effectively 'blind' the entire defensive network. Obviously, a defense budget of nearly one trillion dollars cannot be compared to Iran’s, but the real question is whether the cost and effort are worth the potential casualties. Even without Israel, the Americans maintain an immense advantage in aerial operations over Iran; however, as I have stated before, this superiority does not translate to the maritime theater.show more

🇮🇱🇮🇷 The massive explosion in Beit Shemesh was at... the Tomer Company, Israel's government defense firm that builds the rocket engines for Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 missile interceptors. The systems Israel uses to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles. Here's why the "controlled explosion" explanation doesn't hold up: Controlled detonations require advance public notification. There was none. Emergency services were scrambled immediately to respond. You don't scramble emergency services to something that was planned. And the scale of the blast is consistent with one thing: rocket motor propellant or solid fuel igniting unexpectedly. Which makes complete sense for a facility that manufactures rocket propulsion systems. The most likely explanation: an accident during testing or production. But the timing is worth sitting with. Iran just escalated for the first time on its own terms, not in response to U.S. action, but initiating. A more emboldened Iran than the one that entered this ceasefire. An accident at Israel's most critical missile defense facility is the probable answer. Sabotage, at exactly this moment, at exactly this target, cannot be fully ruled out.show more

🇮🇷🇮🇱| A little more to understand... My opinion: The... war may end in a few days or last a lot longer—all depending on whether or not the US joins Israel. Israel is not able to fight against Iran for much longer; its interceptors have a certain capability threshold, and reports already suggest it is rationing its interceptor missiles, and we've seen how 12-17 interceptors were launched, yet Iranian missiles still made an impact. It all comes down to whether the US is willing to go to war with Iran or not; it's likely they will if you consider Trump's administrative behavior since he took office. But honestly, if they are smart, they will not. - A little about Iran's missile situation: Israel says it's conducting operations in northwestern and western Iran to prevent the reactivation of missile bases in Tabriz, Kermanshah, and Khorramabad. A significant portion of the Israeli Air Force is now focused on these 3 sites to prevent further missile launches from those locations. This suggests that the sites they claim they destroyed did not suffer strategic damage, and the destroyed hangars were of minimal value. As a result, Israel continuously carries out operations and remains engaged to prevent Iran from reactivating its capabilities in the west. If these 3 regions are abandoned, Israel will move on to target other strategic sites. These 3 missile bases are among Iran's key assets. The missiles are intact and untouched, it's the launchers that are affected, and they can easily be reactivated, but it's difficult under continuous attacks. Other missile bases in the south remain untouched and have so far not been used, as they are probably being reserved for strikes against the US. Missile launches are mainly launched from the center and north of Iran, some from the western regions as well. The reason for limited and isolated launches these past few days has several explanations, mainly that Iran is testing to recognize new patterns everytime a serious attack is carried out, as Israel continuously changes its defensive behavior to prevent Iran's intelligence from learning it; thus, isolated launches, followed by a bigger, deadlier, and more accurate attack with 30 launches as we saw today.show more

$IREN "we haven't disclosed the specific amount of GPUs"... 1. 🤮 reminds me of $NBIS 2. Setting a terrible precedent here for future deals 3. Making it purposely difficult, to not let analysts properly value your 2027 revenue 4. Increasing the polarized view on IREN by the market However: "approximately 60MW of air-cooled Blackwells" 1. You typically don't talk about gross capacity in a deployment like this 2. If it would be gross capacity, the GPU hour rate at IT level would be crazy high (at PUE 1.2, $680m / 50 = 13.6m/MW) 3. At 60MW IT load, and ~14kW draw at DGX server level, we can get to ~4,286 DGX systems with 8 GPUs per. 4. Based on this we can conclude that 60MW of IT load can run approximately 34k DGX B300. 5. 34k DGX B300 at $680m/yr, would represent a GPU hour price of $2.28 Now this is the problem with not disclosing your GPU quantity. You purposely make your business model look bad, because by approach, you get to a GPU hour price that would imply a payback period of 4 years, where only the last year of the contract is 100% margin. But of course, we can also take "the glass is half full" approach. IREN has ordered 50K B300s from Dell. They have 2 purchase orders for this, 1 between Dell Canada and IE CA Leasing Ltd for 4 phases, and 1 between Dell USA and IE US Hardware 1 Inc (amended from IE US Hardware 4 Inc on April 27, 2026). The order for Canada is divided in 4 phases, and are going to Mackenzie for 80MW of gross capacity, which happens to be 4 buildings of 20MW. The order for Childress is divided in 2 phases, and are going to DC35 and DC36, (as depicted in the earnings presentation) and those are 50MW gross. The purchase price of the order for Childress was $1.2B, and for Canada it was $2.3B If we go with 50,000 B300s for a total of $3.5B then $1.2 would represent 34.285% of the 50,000 GPUs, or 17,140 B300s rounded down. For this calculation I will consider that $IREN will deploy 17,140 GPUs in 50MW gross capacity in DC35 and DC36 of block 3 in Childress.. That would imply at 1.2 PUE, IREN can run 17,140 B300s in 41.67MW IT load. Now by that ratio, they can run 24,680 GPUs in 60MW IT load — a massive difference with 34k units through the Nvidia DGX reference calculation. If common sense is applied, you can still get to 2 completely different outcomes, that show a difference of more than 9k GPUs. The GPU hour rate at 24.68k GPUs would be $3.145 per B300, as MASSIVE difference from the earlier calculated $2.28. Sure, the DGX system may be a factor here. And I'm sure that the reality is somewhere in the middle. But I personally hate this as an investor, to be unable to calculate profitability on unit economic basis. After all, contracts are signed on a $/GPU hour basis. Why hide this from your investors? Not being able to calculate payback periods, unable to calculate ROIC. And most importantly, we cannot properly assess the $NVDA deal on a contract basis. I really hope the payback period of this contract is not 4 years. I want the glass to be half full, but by starting to censor the purchases, IREN is taking a step in the wrong direction. Not a fan of this.show more

Iran is improving and beginning to use more accurate... missiles. The Iranians destroyed an Arrow or David Sling launcher that had expended all its ammunition but was unable to intercept the Iranian missile. This indicates that Iran is now collecting intelligence on the positioning of Israeli air defense batteries and targeting them with the confidence of their missile superiority. Yesterday, I mentioned the low number of defensive missiles Israel has for both Arrow 2/3 and David Sling, leading me to believe that at the current rate, these systems would run out of ammunition in no more than 15 days. The production of David Sling missiles has been ongoing for the past seven years, with an estimated 100–200 missiles produced annually. The numbers of Arrow 2/3 interceptors are even lower—despite being older, their production is more expensive and slower. Concerned about this situation, Israel has requested support from the THAAD system and the Nimitz group to assist with interceptions. But this keep being a serious issue for Israel.show more

🇺🇦 Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr... Syrskyi, has approved the concept for the development of missile troops and artillery until 2030. 🔺 The document provides for the completion of work and the launch of mass serial production of domestically produced ballistic and cruise missiles. In combination with unmanned systems, this will make it possible to create a balanced long-range fire system capable of destroying targets at distances of up to 2,000 kilometers. This long-term concept is a clear strategic signal. Ukraine is systematically building its own high-precision, long-range strike capabilities. Achieving a 2,000 km range would allow Ukrainian forces to reach virtually any target in European Russia, fundamentally altering the balance of the war and reducing dependence on foreign partners for deep strikes. Video is generated by grok AIshow more

More Batteries vs. Submarines Now that the German TKMS... and the French Naval Group have massively adopted lithium-ion batteries, following the Japanese lead, this is consolidating as a major trend, just as I had predicted. The next stage will be solid-state batteries, and at that point, we'll essentially be discussing only speed and submerged endurance in comparison to nuclear submarines. Since solid-state batteries are lighter, they will allow for a greater number to be installed, freeing up space for more powerful propulsion systems. Naval Group has already sold a version of the Scorpène to Indonesia capable of remaining submerged for up to 80 days. That's with lithium-ion batteries. Imagine what this could exceed, more than double, with solid-state batteries. In practical terms, a more powerful engine combined with solid-state batteries in the proportions that Naval Group is now using in the Scorpène would provide three times the speed, meaning something like 10–15 knots at constant speed while maintaining around 50 days submerged. This would give a range of 40,000–50,000 km, requiring less than one hour on the surface for a fast recharge. For speeds above 25 knots, simply adding more batteries and a better engine would suffice, as the solid-state system has high power output. All this at 15–20% of the cost of a nuclear submarine. And if the choice is to power the batteries with a micro-reactor, it would cost 25–35% of a conventional nuclear one. Then someone will say: “But a nuclear sub can stay submerged for years.” That makes no difference at all, since even with around 60 days of endurance, the crew still needs to surface to resupply provisions. The big advantages remain: battery-powered subs are superior in silence, and speed can be addressed with larger battery packs.show more

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE BIG QUESTION: SHOULD TRUMP FINALLY HIT... IRAN'S INFRASTRUCTURE? History does not repeat, but it rhymes loud enough to hear. In 1945, Japan was finished. Its navy was gone. Its cities were burning. Its war machine could not replace what it lost. And still the leadership would not surrender. Iran today looks eerily familiar. Its radar sites keep getting flattened. Its small boats keep getting sunk. Its missile stockpiles keep getting hit. And still Tehran keeps shooting, mining, and lying its way through every ceasefire it signs. To be clear, nobody is talking about the weapon that finally ended Japan's war. Trump is not dropping a nuclear bomb on Iran, and nobody serious is suggesting he would. That is not the parallel. The parallel is the dilemma itself. What do you do with an enemy that is beaten by every rational measure, yet refuses to act like it? Trump has tried to solve that puzzle the hard way, the careful way. Hit the drone depots. Hit the coastal radar. Leave the power plants standing. Leave the water desalination facilities alone. Spare the bridges and highways ordinary families use every day. He said it himself. He does not want to punish a population for the sins of a regime they never chose, and he does not want American taxpayers footing the bill to rebuild a country we did not break in the first place. But restraint only works on an enemy capable of reading the signal. Iran keeps proving it cannot, or will not. So the real question is not whether Iran is beaten. It clearly is. The real question is what finally convinces a regime that will not admit defeat, without turning millions of ordinary Iranians into collateral damage for their leaders' stubbornness. That is the needle Trump has to thread. Escalate enough to end this, without becoming the very thing his restraint was designed to avoid. The world will be watching which targets he chooses next as closely as it watches whether Iran ever really surrenders at all.show more

MMTLP Next Wednsday there is House Financial Services Committee... Hearing Entitled: OVERSIGHT OF THE SEC It would be a REALLLLLL shame (for some out there) if we had another "Crapo moment", where Paul Atkins is put in the hot seat this time about the #MMTLPFiasco, under oath and not just a "brush off" on FOX Business. This is where it REALLY matters. We have effectively 4 business days to reach out to reps that either signed a letter, the open letter, both, or neither. WE HAVE EVIDENCE NOW! Why did Lisa McClain not mention MMTLP? Because it gave us a heads up to get on the PHONES! Put down the shovel for a moment, and PICK UP THE PHONE! I am sure as hell that: Notarighty would agree, Kurtis would agree, BusyBrands 🇺🇸 would agree, JunkSavvy would agree, Ann Vandersteel™️ would agree, General Mike Flynn would agree, Lara Logan would agree, John Brda would agree, George Palikaras would agree, GREG MCCABE would agree, RICHIE FOR G-D's SAKE IF HE WERE HERE... (REQUIESCAT IN PACE🙏) WOULD 100% AGREE, HELL HE'D PROBABLY BE ON THE WAY TO DC AS WE SPEAK! "I'MMMM GOING AND THERE IS NOTHING YOU CAN DO OR SAY THAT WILL STOP ME! DUBS GET THE CAR READY, I'M FLYING OUT TONIGHT!" 😎 We must not let all the work we and Richie did to build the relationships with Congress go to waste and deteriorate. Let's honor Richie and all by doing the work! MMTLPARMY, YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO - WHAT YOU DO BEST! BE RELENTLESS! .... but also be polite on the phones.... please...? LOL There's a way to be assertive and firm without being hostile. 👋📞😎⚖📚 -DÜKshow more

A little-known UEFA rule could damage Chelsea's Champions League... chances. The Blues qualified for the last-16 of the tournament with a 3-2 away win against Napoli on Wednesday night. But they might be forced to give up playing their home leg at Stamford Bridge in the next round in what would be a massive blow, should it come to pass. Instead, Chelsea would have to host the game at a neutral stadium due to one of UEFA's regulations that only allow for one game to be played in a city on any given night. Arsenal and Tottenham finished above Chelsea in the group stage, meaning they take priority for the Tuesday and Wednesday night fixtures on March 17 and 18. The reasoning behind the rule is so that games can be adequately policed without stretching the security too thin. So Chelsea would have to seek special dispensation from UEFA to discard their rule while also getting support from the authorities in London to host the clash. Given that plenty of London football matches are played on the same day at the weekend, that aspect should not be an issue. UEFA say teams cannot play in the same stadium, city or in cities within 30 miles on a matchday.show more

The IRGC are now hiding their remaining precious launchers... dressed up as civilian trucks and inside highway tunnels—a sort of Hamas-inspired strategy. Getting the last 10% was always going to be the hardest part. But how effective are they anyway? In the four rounds of “True Promise” attacks, they have fired around 1,500 ballistic missiles at Israel and continue to fire 5 to 10 per day. This is well over half their stock, even accounting for rebuilding. With this, they have managed to kill 48 Israelis and cause a few billion in property damage. If they have 500 missiles and 150 launchers left—it is probably less—they will be able to keep “resisting” for another month or so and kill a few more Israelis at random, but then it’s all over. Their grand “Axis of Resistance” will no longer be a strategic threat to Israel, just an irritant to be occasionally swatted at. In truth, this has been the case for a while.show more

ATTENTION! Iran Ballistic Missile capacity (SITREP)—how much longer can... they sustain these barrages? It’s just past 0200 local in Tel Aviv time now. Iran has over 3,000 ballistic missiles but cannot launch all simultaneously (they’ve already launched 8 waves). Current evidence leans toward a maximum of around 180-200 missiles launched at once in recent attacks. It seems very likely that infrastructure limits simultaneous launches to far below 3,000. Iran possesses a significant ballistic missile arsenal, estimated at over 3,000 missiles, making it the largest in the Middle East. However, the capacity to launch all these missiles at once is constrained by logistical and strategic factors, including the number of launch platforms and the nature of their deployment. Recent military actions show Iran launching up to 180-200 missiles in a single strike. These numbers are significantly lower than 3,000, indicating a limit to simultaneous launch capacity. Iran's infrastructure and launch capacity, including transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and underground facilities, does not support launching 3,000 missiles at once. The focus on sequential or ripple-fire systems further supports this limitation. My assessment is Iran is getting toward the end of their ballistic missile capacity (for a variety of reasons). They likely still retain hundreds but their ability to launch very large numbers is hindered by infrastructure destruction over the past several days as well as launch capabilities. That said, DO NOT underestimate Iran’s ability to do as much as humanly possible to attempt to destroy Israel. That has been their stated goal for years and until there is regime change to someone more aligned with Israel and the west, expect this war to continue. Iran's ballistic missile program has been a focal point of regional and international security discussions for many years, particularly given its implications for Middle Eastern stability and global non-proliferation efforts. Iran's ballistic missile inventory comprises a diverse array of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). One notable development is an automated missile launch system revealed since 2020, capable of positioning up to five fully fueled ballistic missiles on an underground railcar for sequential ripple-fire through a single vertical shaft. This is what Israel is facing now. Barrages of dozens of these simultaneously and my assessment is more to come. Strategic and Logistical Considerations Launching 3,000 missiles simultaneously would require an unprecedented number of launch platforms and coordination, likely exceeding Iran's current capabilities. Strategically, such an action would deplete Iran's entire arsenal, leaving it vulnerable to counterattacks. Our Israeli allies need to prepare for another round of massive amounts of missiles. Iran—you better get ready for a strategic counteroffensive. The Israelis have planned this war for a long time and my sense is that they are far more ready than you, particularly their population. The Iranian people DO NOT want to suffer any longer under their brutal tyrannical regime. This war will end with a clear victor. Donald J. Trump JD Vance DNI Tulsi Gabbardshow more

🚨 The last 24 hours didn’t change the war... in Iran. They clarified where it’s heading. *⃣ Israel struck inside Tehran again, with the IDF confirming a wide wave targeting regime infrastructure in the capital. Open-source reporting points to repeated explosions in western Tehran’s Chitgar area, including sites linked to IRGC aerospace activity, with indications of deeper penetration into command and operational systems. *⃣ Iran launched multiple coordinated barrages into central Israel, triggering nationwide alerts across Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and the coastal plain. A ballistic missile struck a residential area, while cluster munitions and interception debris caused localized damage and light injuries across multiple locations. *⃣ The U.S. paused energy-site strikes while preparing escalation options, extending the timeline for targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure while weighing deployment of up to 10,000 additional troops and potential expanded operations. Over the last 24 hours, the battlefield didn’t shift in a dramatic new direction. But the trajectory became clearer. Inside Iran, the campaign is now visibly centered on Tehran itself, not just peripheral military sites. Repeated strikes in western districts and areas associated with IRGC aerospace infrastructure point to a focused effort to degrade missile and operational command capabilities. Additional reporting suggests targeted eliminations remain part of the campaign, though confirmation remains mixed. On the Israeli side, Iran demonstrated it can still impose disruption at scale. The latest attacks included multiple waves in a single day, with at least one confirmed impact in a residential area and additional injuries caused by shrapnel and cluster dispersal. The operational effect is less about mass casualties and more about sustained pressure on Israel’s civilian core. The diplomatic picture also became clearer, not because of progress, but because of contradiction. Washington has paused strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days while pushing for a deal, even as Tehran denies requesting the pause and rejects key elements of the U.S. position. At the same time, Iran appears to be selectively modulating pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing limited passage in what U.S. officials have framed as a gesture, even as broader threats to Gulf energy infrastructure remain in place. At the same time, the U.S. is preparing for the opposite outcome. Planning continues for additional troop deployments and potential escalation scenarios, including operations targeting Kharg Island, the terminal responsible for the majority of Iran’s oil exports. Control of that node would directly threaten the regime’s primary revenue stream, but would also carry significant risk of wider regional retaliation. Israel, for its part, appears to be acting on the assumption that its window is limited. Reporting indicates directives to accelerate strikes against Iran’s military-industrial base, including missile and drone production, before any diplomatic outcome can constrain operations. Put together, the signal is this: ➡️The war is not expanding dramatically right now. It is tightening. ➡️Israel is pushing deeper into the infrastructure that sustains Iran’s military capability, now centered on Tehran. ➡️Iran is relying on intermittent but still disruptive strikes that continue to reach Israel’s population centers. And the United States is positioning between negotiation and escalation at the same time, preparing options that could decisively shift the war if chosen. ➡️The gap between what Washington says is happening and what Tehran is willing to accept is now as important as the fighting itself. **Special thanks to Michael W for his continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. If you aren't already, you need to give him a follow!show more