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10 consecutive cuts later, how is Kenya's output gap evolving & is it still deep in the red? That was my question to Governor, Dr. Kamau Thugge, during today's Monetary Policy Committee briefing following yesterday's 'hat trick' cut (see quoted tweet). The Governor makes a few important points: ·...

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Julians Amboko

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10,642 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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This is the first time the Central Bank of Kenya, the Governor no less, has spoken openly about the contentious & much debated Sec44 of the Banking Act. · Dr. Kamau Thugge says that as far as the Central Bank is concerned, there is no need for banks seeking approval from the CS National Treasury for interest rate adjustments · The stance taken by the Governor, & the Central Bank by extension, goes against the Supreme Court judgement on the matter Stanbic Bank Kenya Limited vs Santowels Limited which affirmed Sec44 of the Banking Act which dictates that no institution can increase its rate of banking or other charges without the National Treasury CS's approval · It is also important to note that the Governor emphasises that monetary policy adjustment should be transmitted IMMEDIATELY by banks. Four months ago, the question of immediate transmission was the cause of a storm between banks & their regulator (see quoted tweet)
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This is the first time the Central Bank of Kenya, the Governor no less, has spoken openly about the contentious & much debated Sec44 of the Banking Act. · Dr. Kamau Thugge says that as far as the Central Bank is concerned, there is no need for banks seeking approval from the CS National Treasury for interest rate adjustments · The stance taken by the Governor, & the Central Bank by extension, goes against the Supreme Court judgement on the matter Stanbic Bank Kenya Limited vs Santowels Limited which affirmed Sec44 of the Banking Act which dictates that no institution can increase its rate of banking or other charges without the National Treasury CS's approval · It is also important to note that the Governor emphasises that monetary policy adjustment should be transmitted IMMEDIATELY by banks. Four months ago, the question of immediate transmission was the cause of a storm between banks & their regulator (see quoted tweet)

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Dr Kamau Thugge giving some colour to the decision taken in yesterday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. · The adjustment of the Discount Window from 300.0bps to 75.0bps above the benchmark is a crucial move · This means that the Discount Window rate is now aligned with the upper limit of the interest rate corridor given that the width of the Interbank Rate corridor has been adjusted from +/- 150.0bps to +/- 75.0bps around the benchmark · Essentially, the Central Bank has addressed the misalignment of having a corridor in place while the Discount Window rate trends above it · The Central Bank is expected to conclude the on-site inspection of banks who are not transmitting the lower yields to end consumers by June 2025 after which banks found to be in contravention will be subject to fines
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Dr Kamau Thugge giving some colour to the decision taken in yesterday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. · The adjustment of the Discount Window from 300.0bps to 75.0bps above the benchmark is a crucial move · This means that the Discount Window rate is now aligned with the upper limit of the interest rate corridor given that the width of the Interbank Rate corridor has been adjusted from +/- 150.0bps to +/- 75.0bps around the benchmark · Essentially, the Central Bank has addressed the misalignment of having a corridor in place while the Discount Window rate trends above it · The Central Bank is expected to conclude the on-site inspection of banks who are not transmitting the lower yields to end consumers by June 2025 after which banks found to be in contravention will be subject to fines

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The basic picture has not changed — if the US doesn’t cut the deficit to 3% of the GDP, and soon, we risk facing an economic heart attack in the next three years. The good news is that these cuts are possible. If we change spending and income (tax returns) by 4% while the economy is still good, the interest rate will go down as a result and we’ll be in a much better situation. And we know this kind of balance is possible because it happened between 1991-1998. My fear is that we will probably not make these needed cuts due to political reasons, and will have even more debt and debt service encroaching on our spending that will ultimately lead to a serious supply-demand problem.
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The basic picture has not changed — if the US doesn’t cut the deficit to 3% of the GDP, and soon, we risk facing an economic heart attack in the next three years. The good news is that these cuts are possible. If we change spending and income (tax returns) by 4% while the economy is still good, the interest rate will go down as a result and we’ll be in a much better situation. And we know this kind of balance is possible because it happened between 1991-1998. My fear is that we will probably not make these needed cuts due to political reasons, and will have even more debt and debt service encroaching on our spending that will ultimately lead to a serious supply-demand problem.

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"What RBI governor is doing is more valuable than what Trump is doing" "Wont be surprised to see Nifty at 29k-30k in next 6-8 months" , says Vikas Khemani on the recent Diwali Special episode of The Money Mindset. He believes the liquidity surplus , interest rate cut and boost to credit growth reinforces faith that government and regulator is doing everything to boost growth in India
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"What RBI governor is doing is more valuable than what Trump is doing" "Wont be surprised to see Nifty at 29k-30k in next 6-8 months" , says Vikas Khemani on the recent Diwali Special episode of The Money Mindset. He believes the liquidity surplus , interest rate cut and boost to credit growth reinforces faith that government and regulator is doing everything to boost growth in India

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It has emerged that in its latest mission to Kenya early this month (see quoted tweet), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) took issue with the US$/Kes exchange rate. According to the KRA Chairman, the Fund argued that the exchange rate is "too stable" & is impairing "monetary policy transmission & inflation targeting". With this in mind, the next Article IV discussions & report should be interesting. The discussions were to kick off in September. Kenya is currently scouting for a new funded program with the Fund after prematurely terminating the US$3.6 billion 4-year program in March.
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I can’t forget the visualization below of the scale of a billion dollars. It is why I laugh when the number is carelessly thrown around by Nigerians. According to Mark Cuban, getting wealth at this scale is more about luck than skill or knowledge. You can’t get it linearly, only from exponential growth. The question we should ask if we seriously want to get wealth at this level is how many opportunities are open to an African to create exponential growth in any offering? In America and elsewhere, the market rewards people for creating that level of growth largely through valuation of future prospects and the probability of gaining more as exponential growth continues. We got a brief taste of those valuations in tech simply because foreign money decided to make some bets on entities that are still legally in their own country but operating in Africa. The way those companies are currently valued gives an idea of what they think about our markets but it is not always the reality on ground. The most objective measure is income and we are now slowly proving that previous valuations make sense. Getting to the point of creating individual billionaires is still far away unless we unlock further exponential growth opportunities. Speculation won’t create more billionaires. The government route has largely helped to create our current dollar billionaires by giving them advantage in areas where exponential demand was present. Those areas still have opportunities for growth. Someone sent me a deck and said he was trying to raise $10 Billion dollars, after laughing, I started to seriously look at the opportunities in the sector. The conclusion I reached with my cousin was that the only way to invest money and make money at that scale is to be in bed with the government. This is the bitter reality of Nigeria.
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