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10 consecutive cuts later, how is Kenya's output gap evolving & is it still deep in the red? That was my question to Governor, Dr. Kamau Thugge, during today's Monetary Policy Committee briefing following yesterday's 'hat trick' cut (see quoted tweet). The Governor makes a few important points: ·...

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Julians Amboko

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10,642 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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This is the first time the Central Bank of Kenya, the Governor no less, has spoken openly about the contentious & much debated Sec44 of the Banking Act. · Dr. Kamau Thugge says that as far as the Central Bank is concerned, there is no need for banks seeking approval from the CS National Treasury for interest rate adjustments · The stance taken by the Governor, & the Central Bank by extension, goes against the Supreme Court judgement on the matter Stanbic Bank Kenya Limited vs Santowels Limited which affirmed Sec44 of the Banking Act which dictates that no institution can increase its rate of banking or other charges without the National Treasury CS's approval · It is also important to note that the Governor emphasises that monetary policy adjustment should be transmitted IMMEDIATELY by banks. Four months ago, the question of immediate transmission was the cause of a storm between banks & their regulator (see quoted tweet)
1:12

This is the first time the Central Bank of Kenya, the Governor no less, has spoken openly about the contentious & much debated Sec44 of the Banking Act. · Dr. Kamau Thugge says that as far as the Central Bank is concerned, there is no need for banks seeking approval from the CS National Treasury for interest rate adjustments · The stance taken by the Governor, & the Central Bank by extension, goes against the Supreme Court judgement on the matter Stanbic Bank Kenya Limited vs Santowels Limited which affirmed Sec44 of the Banking Act which dictates that no institution can increase its rate of banking or other charges without the National Treasury CS's approval · It is also important to note that the Governor emphasises that monetary policy adjustment should be transmitted IMMEDIATELY by banks. Four months ago, the question of immediate transmission was the cause of a storm between banks & their regulator (see quoted tweet)

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68,190 次观看 • 1 个月前

Dr Kamau Thugge giving some colour to the decision taken in yesterday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. · The adjustment of the Discount Window from 300.0bps to 75.0bps above the benchmark is a crucial move · This means that the Discount Window rate is now aligned with the upper limit of the interest rate corridor given that the width of the Interbank Rate corridor has been adjusted from +/- 150.0bps to +/- 75.0bps around the benchmark · Essentially, the Central Bank has addressed the misalignment of having a corridor in place while the Discount Window rate trends above it · The Central Bank is expected to conclude the on-site inspection of banks who are not transmitting the lower yields to end consumers by June 2025 after which banks found to be in contravention will be subject to fines
1:34

Dr Kamau Thugge giving some colour to the decision taken in yesterday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. · The adjustment of the Discount Window from 300.0bps to 75.0bps above the benchmark is a crucial move · This means that the Discount Window rate is now aligned with the upper limit of the interest rate corridor given that the width of the Interbank Rate corridor has been adjusted from +/- 150.0bps to +/- 75.0bps around the benchmark · Essentially, the Central Bank has addressed the misalignment of having a corridor in place while the Discount Window rate trends above it · The Central Bank is expected to conclude the on-site inspection of banks who are not transmitting the lower yields to end consumers by June 2025 after which banks found to be in contravention will be subject to fines

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16,427 次观看 • 1 年前

The basic picture has not changed — if the US doesn’t cut the deficit to 3% of the GDP, and soon, we risk facing an economic heart attack in the next three years. The good news is that these cuts are possible. If we change spending and income (tax returns) by 4% while the economy is still good, the interest rate will go down as a result and we’ll be in a much better situation. And we know this kind of balance is possible because it happened between 1991-1998. My fear is that we will probably not make these needed cuts due to political reasons, and will have even more debt and debt service encroaching on our spending that will ultimately lead to a serious supply-demand problem.
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The basic picture has not changed — if the US doesn’t cut the deficit to 3% of the GDP, and soon, we risk facing an economic heart attack in the next three years. The good news is that these cuts are possible. If we change spending and income (tax returns) by 4% while the economy is still good, the interest rate will go down as a result and we’ll be in a much better situation. And we know this kind of balance is possible because it happened between 1991-1998. My fear is that we will probably not make these needed cuts due to political reasons, and will have even more debt and debt service encroaching on our spending that will ultimately lead to a serious supply-demand problem.

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#WATCH | Delhi | Economist Ved Jain says, "... IMF has projected that in 2025 and 2026, India will be growing at a rate of 6.5% compared to the global rate of 3%. Two important factors in the IMF report are that it will be crucial for India that private and foreign investment in India grow... The other is ease of doing business, which is also being improved in India... With the US policy on tariffs getting tougher, India will have to adjust their tariff structure to align with global expectations... When an economy grows at the fastest rate compared to the global rate, individuals' purchasing power will increase... Indian policy should continue to encourage private and foreign investments..."
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#WATCH | Delhi | Economist Ved Jain says, "... IMF has projected that in 2025 and 2026, India will be growing at a rate of 6.5% compared to the global rate of 3%. Two important factors in the IMF report are that it will be crucial for India that private and foreign investment in India grow... The other is ease of doing business, which is also being improved in India... With the US policy on tariffs getting tougher, India will have to adjust their tariff structure to align with global expectations... When an economy grows at the fastest rate compared to the global rate, individuals' purchasing power will increase... Indian policy should continue to encourage private and foreign investments..."

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12,440 次观看 • 1 年前

"What RBI governor is doing is more valuable than what Trump is doing" "Wont be surprised to see Nifty at 29k-30k in next 6-8 months" , says Vikas Khemani on the recent Diwali Special episode of The Money Mindset. He believes the liquidity surplus , interest rate cut and boost to credit growth reinforces faith that government and regulator is doing everything to boost growth in India
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"What RBI governor is doing is more valuable than what Trump is doing" "Wont be surprised to see Nifty at 29k-30k in next 6-8 months" , says Vikas Khemani on the recent Diwali Special episode of The Money Mindset. He believes the liquidity surplus , interest rate cut and boost to credit growth reinforces faith that government and regulator is doing everything to boost growth in India

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222,913 次观看 • 10 个月前

BREAKING: Blackrock CEO Fink says that he worries that Trump’s actions are much more inflationary than the markets expect, and the economy is weakening as we speak. He also says that he sees a 0% chance of four or five interest rate cuts this year, and sees a chance of interest rising. Additionally, he says that he is troubled that America is currently destabilizing, and doesn’t rule out another 20% market decline from here. He also warned that Trump’s tariffs will weaken the US Dollar and that we are probably in a recession right now.
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It has emerged that in its latest mission to Kenya early this month (see quoted tweet), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) took issue with the US$/Kes exchange rate. According to the KRA Chairman, the Fund argued that the exchange rate is "too stable" & is impairing "monetary policy transmission & inflation targeting". With this in mind, the next Article IV discussions & report should be interesting. The discussions were to kick off in September. Kenya is currently scouting for a new funded program with the Fund after prematurely terminating the US$3.6 billion 4-year program in March.
0:57

It has emerged that in its latest mission to Kenya early this month (see quoted tweet), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) took issue with the US$/Kes exchange rate. According to the KRA Chairman, the Fund argued that the exchange rate is "too stable" & is impairing "monetary policy transmission & inflation targeting". With this in mind, the next Article IV discussions & report should be interesting. The discussions were to kick off in September. Kenya is currently scouting for a new funded program with the Fund after prematurely terminating the US$3.6 billion 4-year program in March.

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Why is the rate of Alzheimer’s skyrocketing? Because we were taught in school cholesterol is BAD and we need to avoid it. I still remember my high school health teacher telling the class that 2 eggs a day puts you at the limit. This couldn’t be further from the truth…
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Why is the rate of Alzheimer’s skyrocketing? Because we were taught in school cholesterol is BAD and we need to avoid it. I still remember my high school health teacher telling the class that 2 eggs a day puts you at the limit. This couldn’t be further from the truth…

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🚨Florida CFO Blaise Ingoglia says FAFO Audits of School Boards across Florida ARE COMING! Says budgets have been going up EXPONENTIALLY with administrators being OVERPAID and teachers being SHAFTED like in Broward. “We are in the process of gathering information from school boards across the state of Florida, and we are putting into context not only the growth in general government, but the growth in school board budgets over time. What we have seen, generally is that the amount of the budgets for school districts are going up EXPONENTIALLY, similar to what we're seeing in general government. And the scary part about that is what we are seeing is that the number of administrators that we are seeing is really skyrocketing, and the pay for the administrators are skyrocketing. When the teacher pay is actually flatlining, not going up anywhere it needs to be, but seems to be finding student populations. So our job is to put that all into context of how a school board budgets are growing relative to the population that they serve, which is the students. I personally believe, and again, this is a general statement, but I believe this stands true against all the school districts. I believe that there is enough room in these school board budgets to cut their budget by cutting a lot of the fat and still give teachers pretty decent raises. And anyone who hasn't, who thinks that we can't, hasn't even tried to put pen to paper. It CAN be done, it's just a WILL, a political will, and a policy will to get it done.”

Chris Nelson 🏝️🇺🇸

26,233 次观看 • 3 个月前

I can’t forget the visualization below of the scale of a billion dollars. It is why I laugh when the number is carelessly thrown around by Nigerians. According to Mark Cuban, getting wealth at this scale is more about luck than skill or knowledge. You can’t get it linearly, only from exponential growth. The question we should ask if we seriously want to get wealth at this level is how many opportunities are open to an African to create exponential growth in any offering? In America and elsewhere, the market rewards people for creating that level of growth largely through valuation of future prospects and the probability of gaining more as exponential growth continues. We got a brief taste of those valuations in tech simply because foreign money decided to make some bets on entities that are still legally in their own country but operating in Africa. The way those companies are currently valued gives an idea of what they think about our markets but it is not always the reality on ground. The most objective measure is income and we are now slowly proving that previous valuations make sense. Getting to the point of creating individual billionaires is still far away unless we unlock further exponential growth opportunities. Speculation won’t create more billionaires. The government route has largely helped to create our current dollar billionaires by giving them advantage in areas where exponential demand was present. Those areas still have opportunities for growth. Someone sent me a deck and said he was trying to raise $10 Billion dollars, after laughing, I started to seriously look at the opportunities in the sector. The conclusion I reached with my cousin was that the only way to invest money and make money at that scale is to be in bed with the government. This is the bitter reality of Nigeria.
0:53

I can’t forget the visualization below of the scale of a billion dollars. It is why I laugh when the number is carelessly thrown around by Nigerians. According to Mark Cuban, getting wealth at this scale is more about luck than skill or knowledge. You can’t get it linearly, only from exponential growth. The question we should ask if we seriously want to get wealth at this level is how many opportunities are open to an African to create exponential growth in any offering? In America and elsewhere, the market rewards people for creating that level of growth largely through valuation of future prospects and the probability of gaining more as exponential growth continues. We got a brief taste of those valuations in tech simply because foreign money decided to make some bets on entities that are still legally in their own country but operating in Africa. The way those companies are currently valued gives an idea of what they think about our markets but it is not always the reality on ground. The most objective measure is income and we are now slowly proving that previous valuations make sense. Getting to the point of creating individual billionaires is still far away unless we unlock further exponential growth opportunities. Speculation won’t create more billionaires. The government route has largely helped to create our current dollar billionaires by giving them advantage in areas where exponential demand was present. Those areas still have opportunities for growth. Someone sent me a deck and said he was trying to raise $10 Billion dollars, after laughing, I started to seriously look at the opportunities in the sector. The conclusion I reached with my cousin was that the only way to invest money and make money at that scale is to be in bed with the government. This is the bitter reality of Nigeria.

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77,956 次观看 • 1 年前

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4:37

It is a Sad Narrative for Fubara to Be Struggling 001 With Wike - Fayose There's a difference between the office of the governor and the state's 001. In Ekiti, we believe that those who gave you life are the fathers of those who gave you money. Fubara should be able to manage this situation. If Wike says he is the leader, it is not for the mouth of Gov. Fubara to contest that. Ayo Fayose, Former Governor of Ekiti State

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64,485 次观看 • 7 个月前

Asked by Ben Smith about how he views the politics of AI and the data center build out, Governor Josh Shapiro says: "AI is being developed. The real question is, is it going to be developed here in the US or in communist China? My view is that all of us should want it developed in the US. The US should lead on this. This is a national security issue. I think this is an issue that threatens our freedom if we allow China to overtake us when it comes to AI development."
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Asked by Ben Smith about how he views the politics of AI and the data center build out, Governor Josh Shapiro says: "AI is being developed. The real question is, is it going to be developed here in the US or in communist China? My view is that all of us should want it developed in the US. The US should lead on this. This is a national security issue. I think this is an issue that threatens our freedom if we allow China to overtake us when it comes to AI development."

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0:59

🚨Chamath on why the Fed could keep holding off rate cuts: "The only answer is political." The FOMC's June rate cut decision is happening this week. It is expected they will keep rates unchanged. The chances of a Summer rate cut are extremely small. According to Polymarket: -- June: ~98% chance of "No change" -- July: ~87% chance of "No change" Chamath's take: "Let's just scenario play. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut right now?" "I'll tell you. So one part, which is mathematical, is the interest on the debt goes down. We save $300B." "But there's something else that happens, which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve." "Meaning how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years." "If you make that cheaper, it's a test as true as time, what happens is people borrow more money." "That fuels more growth. That will end up in GDP." "So what actually happens if you cut rates 100 basis points is not just the $300B, but you can get this reflexive positivity in the economy." "What that allows you to do is, even if that causes a little bit more inflation, you're actually growing yourself out of this whole thing." "If the numerical justification is there to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the United States economy, why don't (you) do it?" "The only answer is political."

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632,242 次观看 • 1 年前