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20 free Tembo runs/day sounds tiny until you actually do the math The stack: Opus 4.7, GPT 5.5, GLM 5.1. That means the "free tier" is not toy-model autocomplete It is frontier coding models doing real work 1 Bugfix - 1-3 runs 1 Refactor - 3-5 runs 1 PR...

14,241 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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A 67-year-old grandfather in Vermont built a trading bot during retirement - it earned him $290,000 in a single year without losing a single trade. 168 trades. 100% win rate. Zero drawdown across 365 days. The strategy is so safe it's basically a bond ladder - but with AI doing the probability math instead of credit Here's how it actually works: He only takes bets the model is >85% sure of. Everything else? Killed. 188 events scanned per day. ~12 pass the filter. ~1 actually deploy. AI algo waits. Most days he doesn't trade at all. The probability model is stolen from weather forecasting: 31 models vote on every outcome. 28 out of 31 saying "yes" = 90% conviction. Below 26 = automatic reject. That's the entire edge. Polymarket is full of 87-92¢ markets that almost always settle at $1. Most traders ignore them - upside per dollar looks tiny. The math: edge = model_p − market_p kelly = edge / (1 − token_price) size = bankroll x kelly x 0.15 The stack runs free: Polymarket Gamma API for discovery, ClickHouse + Redpanda for the pipeline, paper mode validation before live capital. Brier score 0.041 across all 168 predictions. Anything under 0.10 is institutional-grade. He's printing the academic numbers. Most boring account on Polymarket. Also the most profitable - so save this post. And if you’ve been looking for the most safest strategy to copy - you’ve definitely found it. You only need Claude + laptop + 1 hour/day. Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment Your thoughts . 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan

Marry Evan

16,414 views • 2 months ago