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🇦🇺 HOT TAKE: IMMIGRATION FAILED DUE TO LACK OF INTEGRATION AND IT'S PROBABLY ALL BY DESIGN Here's the uncomfortable part nobody wants to say out loud: Australia's government knew. They investigated. They gave him guns anyway. Then 15 people died. The timeline you're not supposed to connect: 1998: Naveed Akram's father arrives Sydney on student visa 2019: Naveed investigated for association with ISIS cell. Authorities knew. He was on their radar. 2015–2025: Father obtains licenses for six firearms. Becomes gun club member for a decade. Despite his son being investigated for terror links. December 14, 2025: Father and son use those licensed firearms to murder 15 people at a Hanukkah celebration on Bondi Beach. Including a 10-year-old girl named Matilda. Including Rabbi Eli Schlanger, father of five whose youngest was born two months ago. The pattern Australian officials pretended not to see: August 2025: Australia expels Iran's ambassador for directing attacks against Jewish targets. Intelligence chief Mike Burgess says they uncovered links "between alleged crimes and commanders in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps." December 2024: Melbourne synagogue firebombing October 2024: Sydney cafe arson attack November 2024: Woollahra graffiti and arson, 10+ cars damaged Days after October 7, 2023: Sydney Opera House protest with Hamas/Hezbollah flags July 2025: Australia's antisemitism envoy releases recommendations to combat rising attacks. Not implemented. December 2025: Mass shooting at Jewish religious celebration. Here's what nobody wants to admit: Every step of this was preventable. The father arrived on a student visa 27 years ago. His son was investigated for ISIS cell association in 2019. And in the years after that investigation, the father obtained 6 gun licenses. 6 licenses... after his son was investigated for ISIS. The guns used in the attack? All legally licensed to the father. Australian officials are now focusing on gun control. New South Wales Police Commissioner Malcolm Lanyon talking about the National Firearms Register, limiting firearms per individual. Missing the point entirely. The guns were already registered. The guy had licenses. The system worked exactly as designed – it just gave firearms to the father of a terror suspect and called it legal. The uncomfortable question: How do you import millions of people, fail to enforce cultural integration, ignore intelligence warnings, give gun licenses to the families of terror suspects, don't implement your own antisemitism task force recommendations, and then act shocked when they kill 15 people at a Jewish religious celebration? Opposition leader Sussan Ley: "There is palpable anger because antisemitism has been left to fester. This is a clear failure to keep Jewish Australians safe." Antisemitism envoy Jillian Segal: "This has been seeping into society for years. The Jewish community is terrified. Some don't want to leave their homes." Netanyahu to Australia: "You did nothing to curb the cancer cells growing inside your country." Harsh words. But scroll back through that timeline and tell me he's wrong. The broader pattern: This isn't unique to Australia. Melbourne. Paris. London. Stockholm. Germany. The same playbook: Import populations without demanding integration, ignore warning signs because enforcing standards would be "racist," punish citizens who point out problems, then act blindsided when violence erupts. Australia held 18 months of "awful but lawful" protests where antisemitic messages spread below prosecution thresholds. Experts warned the country "crossed the Rubicon" on free speech, needed to redefine hate speech and politically motivated violence. Warnings ignored. Recommendations not implemented. Gun licenses still issued. Then came Bondi Beach. Ahmed al Ahmed – Muslim fruit shop owner – tackled the gunman, wrestled away his weapon while taking bullets to his arm and hand. He's recovering after one surgery, needs 2–3 more. His family calls him "100 per cent hero." Because he is. The hero stopping the massacre was the same faith background as the killers. Which proves this isn't about broad religious demographics – it's about specific choices: who you let in, what standards you enforce, which warnings you heed. Australia chose to let student visas turn into permanent residency without scrutiny. Chose to give gun licenses to the father of an ISIS-investigated suspect. Chose not to implement antisemitism task force recommendations. Chose to allow "awful but lawful" hate speech for 18 months. 15 people paid with their lives for those choices. The design you're not supposed to notice: This pattern repeats across every Western nation. Import populations. Skip integration requirements. Ignore cultural conflicts. Suppress criticism as bigotry. Watch parallel societies form. Act shocked when violence erupts. Blame "mental illness" or "lone wolves." Repeat. PM Albanese's response: Focus on gun control. Not on how the father got those licenses. Not on why the son's ISIS investigation didn't flag the family. Not on why antisemitism recommendations sat unimplemented. Not on immigration vetting failures. Just guns. As if the problem is weapons, not the hands holding them. The uncomfortable truth: You can't import millions without assimilation standards, give terror suspects' families gun licenses, ignore your own security advisors, allow hate speech at iconic landmarks for 18 months, and then blame the guns when people die. Matilda was 10 years old. Rabbi Schlanger's youngest child is 2 months old and will never meet his father. 13 others are gone. Ahmed al Ahmed is recovering from bullet wounds after stopping what should have been 30+ deaths. This was preventable. Every step was preventable. From the 1998 visa to the 2019 investigation that went nowhere to the gun licenses issued afterward to the July 2025 recommendations left unimplemented. Australia knew. And Australia issued the licenses anyway. That's the uncomfortable truth. The rest is just noise. Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Sydney Morning Herald, NSW Police, Australian government statements, Concerned Citizen

Mario Nawfal

258,240 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

$AMD $5 Trillion is Inevitable LT| Agentic AI🧵 Agentic AI is the new $5 Trillion TAM 🚨🚨🚨 This thead will do Comp with $INTC and how to quantify this massive Agentic AI demand spike, and forcing Jensen to rush a CPU design. Global Agentic AI Market size is estimated to be $3-$5Trillion TAM by 2030(McKinsey) Quantifying the demand from agentic AI for AMD involves assessing the broader market growth for agentic systems, their unique computational requirements (particularly for CPUs in orchestration and reasoning tasks), and AMD's positioning very well through products like EPYC processors and partnerships. AMD EPYC Venice is the most superior choice in 2026-2027 for most Agentic AI workloads Agentic AI refers to autonomous AI agents that perform multi-step tasks, involving sequential logic, tool integration, and decision-making workloads that heavily rely on CPUs for handling orchestration, memory management, and context switching, rather than just GPU-parallelized training or batch inference. Agentic AI is often cited as 40-100x more "hungry" than traditional AI due to its continuous, 24/7 operation and complex workflows. This stems from factors like chain-of-thought reasoning (multiple LLM calls per query), API/tool interactions, memory management, and orchestration loops, which can generate 10-100x more tokens and require real-time responsiveness. For example, a single agentic query might trigger 5-20 model inferences, making it 10-20x more compute-intensive than simple chatbots, and the always-on nature compounds this to 40-100x overall. Nvidia's CEO has highlighted this as driving "easily 100x more computation" for inference in agentic/reasoning setups. AMD's EPYC Venice (6th Gen EPYC, codenamed "Venice") and Intel's Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids represent the pinnacle of server CPU technology in 2026, both targeting high-performance data center workloads like AI inference, agentic AI orchestration, cloud computing, and HPC. Venice builds on AMD's Zen 6 architecture, emphasizing core density and efficiency, while Diamond Rapids leverages Intel's Panther Cove P-cores for balanced performance. Both chips adopt similar advancements like 16-channel DDR5 memory and PCIe Gen 6, but differ in core counts, process nodes, and overall design philosophy. Intel has faced acute supply constraints across its Xeon lineup, including legacy nodes (Intel 7/3) and the ramping 18A process for next-gen parts. Intel shortage is expected with lead times up to 6 months or longer. 1. AMD EPYC Venice vs Intel Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids Architecture AMD: Zen 6 chiplet design with 8 CCDs and dual IODs Intel: Panther Cove P-cores; multi-die architecture with 4 compute tiles Core/Thread Count AMD: Up to 256 cores / 512 threads (Zen 6c variant) Intel: Up to 192 cores / 192 threads Process Node AMD: TSMC N2 (2nm) Intel: Intel 18A (1.8nm-class); in-house fab Memory Support AMD: 16-channel DDR5; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth. Intel: 16-channel DDR5 ; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth I/O and Connectivity AMD: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); twice the CPU-to-GPU bandwidth Intel: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); LGA 9324 socket Power (TDP) AMD: Starting 400-500W, potentially lower due to efficiency gains from TSMC 2nm Intel: Starting 400-500W, as it targets competitive efficiency Performance Projections AMD: Up to 70% uplift vs. 5th Gen Turin (1.7x in multi-threaded/AI tasks) Intel: ~40% faster than Granite Rapids (Xeon 6, 128-core). Lags AMD in per-core perf and 40-50% behind Venice core-for-core comp Target Workloads AMD: AI inference/orchestration, HPC, cloud virtualization. Partnerships Intel: Hyperscale AI, general enterprise. Custom silicon Pricing: AMD: estimated $10k-$20k for top SKUs Intel: estimated $8-$18k Availability: AMD: Significant Ramp H2 2026 due to higher allocation from TSMC Intel: H1-H2 2026 delayed, but trying to catch up Overall: ~Venice's 256 cores provide a 33% edge over Diamond Rapids' 192, making it superior for massively parallel tasks like AI training/inference or virtualization ~TSMC's N2 vs. Intel 18A debates rage on which is "better," but AMD's mature chiplet approach yields better density ( 32 cores/CCD vs. Intel's 48/tile). Venice's redesign reduces latency, aiding agentic AI where CPUs handle orchestration ~ Early projections show Venice widening AMD's lead matching or exceeding Diamond Rapids' perf with fewer watts in multi-threaded benchmarks. Intel's no-SMT design (to prioritize AI) handicaps it vs. AMD's 512 threads, though Clearwater Forest (E-core) could compete in density-focused niches. ~Power & Cooling: Both push above 400-500W, demanding liquid cooling. ~AMD been taking market share now above 40%. AMD EPYC Venice emerges as the superior choice in 2026 for most server workloads. Its higher core/thread count (256/512 vs. 192/192), stronger per-core performance, and architecture optimized for AI-driven tasks (agentic orchestration with GPU integration) provide decisive advantages in throughput, scalability, and efficiency. Projections indicate Venice delivering 1.7x the performance of prior gens while widening the gap over Intel ( 40-70% leads in multi-threaded benchmarks). AMD's fabless model with TSMC ensures reliable scaling, and its ecosystem ( open ROCm) appeals to AI adopters. Intel's Diamond Rapids is competitive in single-threaded enterprise apps and custom hyperscale ( NVLink), with potential fab advantages for supply/security. However, without SMT and lower density, it falls short in core-for-core battles—exposing Intel to another generation of AMD dominance unless 18A yields surprise efficiency gains. For data centers prioritizing raw compute ( AI, HPC), Venice wins; for Intel-centric ecosystems or specialized I/O, Diamond Rapids holds ground. Real benchmarks post-launch will confirm, but logic points to AMD pulling ahead. 2. Market size , Potential Revenue and Supply Global Agentic AI market size is projected to be $3-$5 Trillion by 2030 according to McKinsey, where consensus points to 40-50% CAGR driven by small to large enterprise demand. I also wrote a full thread on how and why Agentic AI is so explosive that AMD will blow all anlaysts estimate for subscribers. Link below if you are interested. AMD's data center segment hit a record $5.4B in Q4 2025 (up 39% YoY), with EPYC shipments ramping due to agentic demand. With 2GW of deployment in H2 2026, AMD AI data center revenue has $40-$50B+ at the lowest or most conservative projection; or Total Revenue in the $77-$94B For FY2026. However, Agentic AI massive demand spike could send EPYC revenue 3x to 4x in the next few years, potentially surpassing MI series GPU demand as enterprises prioritize CPU-dense Rack setups. This is pushing $NVDA Jensen to rush a CPU design and acquired Groq, a new CPU player due to this massive TAM. Noted that this is just popping just in weeks, highlighting we are just so early in this AI Supercycle and the pace of adoption is insane, and clearly productivity will skyrocket. Why? Because Agentic AI is 24/7 Smart AI agent working for you or your businesses is a mad compelling, and it is estimated to be 40-100x more Inference Hugnry! Many experts already said it is impossible to project this kind of Inference Demand. AI CapEx is expected to ramp up even more in 2027-2028-2029 and 2030 as Global Agentic AI is going to scale to $3-$5 Trillion TAM by 2030. The nature of Agentic is driving higher CPU/GPU ratio, with CPUs handling 50-90% of Agentic workflows. For example, The current Helios Rack: 18 compute trays per rack with 72 GPUs + 18 CPUs. The beauty of this $META and $AMD long term partnership is, that it is absolutely flexible to adjust racks to higher CPU rato or equal to service different needs. Helios rack can be easily swap to 2 GPUs 2CPUs or even CPUs only trays for dedicated orchestration/head nodes. You see, the beauty of this open rack-scale is flexibility and evolvability. If Agentic AI demand pushes much higher, AMD should be able to adjust variant trays without abandoning Heilos Rack. We can't talk just about massive Agentic AI demand without talking about the Supply side or TSMC. TSMC, AMD's primary foundry for advanced nodes ( Zen 6/Venice on N2/2nm), is addressing AI-driven shortages through massive expansions. TSMC accelerates fab construction with up to 10 facilities targeted for 2026. TSMC is accelerating its domestic manufacturing expansion, with industry sources indicating that as many as ten fabs could be under construction or preparing to begin operations across Taiwan’s major science parks. TSMC Capex: $52-56B in 2026 (up 37% YoY), with $45B already approved for new/upgraded capacities. 70-80% for advanced processes (2nm/A16), 10-20% for packaging (CoWoS quadrupling to 120-140K wafers/month by late 2026). In addition, Taiwanese companies (led by TSMC) commit to at least $250B in direct investments in US-based advanced semiconductor, AI, and energy production/innovation capacity.Taiwan provides $250B in government credit guarantees to facilitate additional investments and build a full US semiconductor ecosystem (including industrial parks). TSMC completed a second land purchase in Arizona (January 2026) for gigafab scaling, with an additional $100B+ (potentially four more modules) to further expand and qualify for tariff exemptions. AMD with secured 12GW from OpenAI and $META and massive Agentic AI will mean higher priority acess to 20-30% more wafers on TSMC advanced nodes, as TSMC has multi-year agreements with AMD for AI chips. Dr. C. C. Wei, CEO of TSMC quote: "I spend a lot of time in the last three or four months talking to my customer and then customers. Customer. I want to make sure that my customers demand are real. I talk to those cloud service providers, all of them. Their answer is. I'm quite satisfied with their answer. Actually they show me the evidence that the AI really help their business. So they grow their business successfully and he or she in their financial return. So I also double check their financial status. They are very rich." Amid shortages, the US buildout ensures AMD can ramp production of Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs without the constraints hitting competitors like Intel. By diversifying away from Taiwan (85% of advanced nodes today), the agreement mitigates supply disruptions, ensuring stable flows for AMD's chips. Scaling production and securing supply will matter for AMD the most in the next 5-10 years growth. The growth could be 80-100% YoY or higher; or it could be in the 60%. The aggressive TSMC supply ramp is reassuring the higher growth point. Conclusion: AMD stands at a pivotal inflection point in 2026, where the explosive rise of agentic AI demanding 40-100x more inference compute through its 24/7, multi-step orchestration positions the company to potentially triple its EPYC CPU revenue to $45-60B+ by 2028 while scaling Instinct GPUs to tens of billions annually by 2027. Agentic AI demand could push AI CapEx closer to $1 Trillion in 2027, far higher than most estimates. Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's visionary CEO, is masterfully securing supply to harness this massive demand by prioritizing operational execution and deep TSMC collaboration, ensuring readiness for the second-half 2026 AI ramp. Dr. Su has explicitly called out surging EPYC demand for agentic tasks where CPUs power head nodes and traditional workloads alongside GPUs while guiding for data center dominance through proactive capacity planning and partnerships like Nutanix ($150M investment for open agentic platforms) or providing tens of millions CPUs for OpenAI, $META, $ORCL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL and others. Her strategy includes multi-year TSMC agreements for advanced nodes (N2 for Venice CPUs and future Instincts), diversifying beyond Taiwan to mitigate risks, and unveiling innovations like the MI455X GPU at CES 2026, which she touted as enabling "the next trillion-dollar market opportunity" in physical AI. Dr. Su's forward-looking vision predicting AI reaching 5 billion users emphasizes "AI everywhere," backed by hardware like Ryzen AI chips, all while declaring demand "going through the roof" and committing to scale without bottlenecks. TSMC's aggressive ramp-up, fueled by $52-56B in 2026 capex (up 37% YoY) and 10+ new fabs across Taiwan, the US (Arizona cluster expanding to 6+ modules with $165B+ investment), Japan, and Europe, provides profound reassurance for AMD's supply stability. The January 2026 US-Taiwan agreement committing $250B in investments and credit guarantees for US reshoring accelerates this, granting tariff relief (15% rates with 1.5-2.5x exemptions) tied to capacity buildouts, enabling TSMC to potentially double output over the decade to meet AI wafer hunger. This translates to 20-30% higher wafer allocations on key nodes, sidestepping Intel-like shortages and empowering Dr. Su's team to deliver on hyperscaler demands without disruption. Ultimately, this synergy cements AMD's leadership in the agentic era, promising sustained growth, $5T+ valuations at scale, and a resilient path forward as AI reshapes the world. This is NOT Financial Advice! Video source: AMD CES 2026

Mike

44,460 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!

Mike

711,006 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.

YeahDave

208,143 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

CHARLIE KIRK, POLITICAL ASS*SSINATIONS, AND THE B'NAI B'RITH (Warning: For Elite Pattern Recognizers Only) Candace Owens ▶️ This is a long post, and won't get very good reach unless you heavily interact with it. Please give it a like, a bookmark, a comment and a retweet. Or else it will just die. 5 minutes to read, 5 minutes to watch the video. But in 10 minutes you'll get an advanced class on B'nai B'rith and ass*ssinations that took me months of research to put together. If you watched Candace Owens yesterday, you learned a little about the B'nai B'rith, a jewish masonic secret society/fraternal order, & its related institution, the ADL. I clocked the ADL 4 days after Charlie Kirk was ass*ssinated. By October 4th, I was openly suspecting them of allegedly playing some kind of role in the hit. But to understand why I suspected to find their involvement, we must review some history. Then we can apply it to Charlie Kirk's ass*ssination. The B'nai B'rith/ADL were materially involved in the JFK, RFK, & MLK ass*ssinations: ▪️JFK▪️ B'nai B'rith member Julius Schepps was President of the Dallas Citizens Council, the organization that invited JFK to Dallas the fateful day of the ass*ssination. It's believed Abraham Zapruder, the jew who captured the infamous footage, was also a member of the B'nai B'rith. Zapruder's office was in the Dal-Tex building (which was next to the Texas School Book Depository) where dozens of witnesses attested that multiple gunshots came from. The Dal-Tex building was owned by the jews David Weisblat and Morris J. Russ until November 1, 1963, when it was transferred to Russ's widow Sylvia Golden Russ just 3 weeks before the ass*ssination. David Weisblat worked for the Anti-Defamation League of the B’nai B’rith. The ADL. Perhaps to get ahead of things, the B'nai B'rith awarded JFK a presidential Gold Medal on January 31, 1963, while he was mired in a battle with israeli Prime Minister David Ben Gurion over israel's illicit nuclear program. What better way to deflect blame! "He was our greatest ally!" Sound familiar? ▪️RFK▪️ RFK's Press Secretary, Frank Mankiewicz, was the Civil Rights Director for the western branch of the Anti-Defamation League of B’nai B’rith. The ADL. It was Mankiewicz who diverted RFK from exiting out the ballroom of the Ambassador Hotel as planned and into the kitchen where Sirhan Sirhan & Thane Eugene Cesar were waiting to shoot him. At the time, the Ambassador Hotel was owned by the jew Junius Myer Schine, who once upon a time allowed the jewish gangster Mickey Cohen to operate an illegal casino inside the hotel. Mickey Cohen had a famous stripper girlfriend named Candy Barr whom he notoriously shared with JACK RUBY and jewish terrorist/israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin (Begin was leader of the Irgun & mastermind of the King David Hotel bombing in 1946. He also founded the Likud, the party that Netanyahu is a member of, which is currently running israel). RFK's DOJ had previously sent Mickey Cohen to prison for 15 years, after RFK personally grilled Cohen in televised senate hearings. BONUS: Junius Schine's son David was mentored by the homosexual jewish fixer Roy Cohn, and they both made the cover of Time Magazine for their central role in the famous Army-McCarthy senate hearings. David would go on to marry Miss Universe 1955, Hillevi Rombin of Sweden (I'll note that the Miss Universe Pageant was owned by jews at the time). Later, Roy Cohn would mentor another young man in the New York real estate scene named Donald J. Trump. Trump would later buy the Ambassador Hotel AND the Miss Universe Pageant! (Try not to notice the intersection between pageants, modeling, and the so-called Epstein network. But, I digress. Lol). ▪️MLK▪️ The ADL had of course been a long-time partner and ally with MLK in the Civil Rights movement. However, according to Henry Schwarzschild—who worked in the ADL’s publications department from 1962 to 1964—the ADL monitored (spied on) King because it considered him a "loose cannon", and the ADL periodically passed information on King to the FBI. Schwarzschild alleged this was “common and casually accepted knowledge” within the ADL. Later, MLK & his Southern Christian Leadership Conference (SCLC) was targeted by the FBI's infamous COINTELPRO. During that entire era, the ADL was known to collaborate closely with the FBI, just as they do now. For years, the ADL has trained every FBI agent. But there's an even deeper & more specific connection between the ADL and the MLK assassination. James Earl Ray's handler Raul once gave Ray an "emergency phone number" of sorts. Raul was a known business associate of Jack Ruby—why does he keep popping up? Raul was also involved in an illegal arms trafficking operation smuggling weapons to israel. This phone number Raul gave a Ray was to Samuel Laventhal, owner of Marine Supply and Salvage Co. of New Orleans. Laventhal was a member of the B'nai B'rith & Zionist Organization of America. In the initial appeal of his conviction, Ray reported that Laventhal was "distressed" about MLK's forthcoming public support for Palestine. Later, in 1978, Ray testified before the House Select Committee on Assassinations that someone in MLK's organization had made contact with the Palestinians about a potential alliance, and that King "intended to support the Arab cause." MLK had already famously 'left the pro-israel cause' when he canceled his much-publicized trip to israel scheduled for November 1967. MLK had soured on israel after its aggression in the 6-Day War placed him in a difficult political position with the 3rd world, with whom he was building a coalition. It was sometime after King's israel trip cancelation that Ray learned from Laventhal of MLK's allegiance switch (Remember, the ADL of the B'nai B'rith was spying on MLK & his organization). But before an alliance with Palestine could be worked out & publicly announced, King was murdered on April 4, 1968, and Ray was framed as the lone gunman patsy. We should note that the cover alias James Earl Ray somehow obtained and assumed while he was on the run was Eric S. Galt, a man who had national security clearance and was the manager of a Union Carbide plant manufacturing proximity bomb fuses being illegally smuggled to israel. Very weird! BACK TO CHARLIE KIRK Knowing this information, and having already noted many troubling similarities between Charlie's ass*ssination and the 3 ass*ssinations mentioned above, I was on the lookout for signs of ADL involvement. The B'nai B'rith is an underground network (literally) that could theoretically facilitate surreptitious planning, collaboration and coordination. Allegedly. I've written extensively about the battle Charlie was waging against the ADL since he joined us in September 2023 calling to #BanTheADL. Search my timeline for "Charlie AND ADL" For its part, the ADL had included TPUSA in its infamous "Glossary On Extremism & Hate." Charlie called to ban the ADL multiple times in September 2023. He called it an anti-White hate group. In November 2023, he declared the ADL was "part and parcel with Black Lives Matter" and "went all in on woke." He included them as one of the Left-wing jewish groups that was pushing the radical open borders and quasi-marxist policies ruining America. At the same time that Charlie was attacking the ADL in the fall of 2023, the ADL was on record proclaiming that America had a GenZ/TikTok problem regarding support for israel, and it launched a set of major initiatives to help reclaim America's youth. Many of these initiatives centered on college campuses and social media—two arenas dominated by Charlie Kirk. After Charlie's ass*ssination, the ADL published a hit piece on people alleging that israel was behind Charlie's murder. Their "Glossary On Extremism & Hate" began to circulate online and they were pressured to shut it down, which they did on September 30th, 2025. In early October, Kash Patel piled on, announcing that the FBI would be severing its longstanding ties with the ADL. (I've seen little evidence for this actually happening, btw). He also announced an end to the FBI's partnership with the SPLC, another radical jewish organization that had been attacking Charlie and TPUSA. It was at that point that a most curious thing happened: on October 3rd, Marissa Streit, former member of IDF Unit 8200 & CEO of PragerU, attacked the ADL & SPLC—which I clocked at time as being kosher theater. We should also note that according to Ben Shapiro, the Daily Wire shared space, talent and equipment with PragerU when both organizations were in their infancy. This will soon become more important in our story. Here's what I think was (allegedly) happening: the Conspirators were using the ADL and its adversarial relationship to TPUSA & Charlie Kirk to help cement the narrative that Charlie was murdered because of radical Leftist hate. That's why the ADL took down its "Glossary On Extremism & Hate." That's why Kash Patel publicly distanced the FBI from the ADL. And that's why fellow jewish intelligence operative Marissa Streit denounced it the ADL. But that's just one interpretation of the facts and I'm not accusing anyone specifically of a crime. Do your own research and make up your own mind. Right after that, on October 4th, 2025, Candace Owens found out that Kash Patel had flown in the agents from the FBI's Connecticut Office to "investigate" at UVU. That's the FBI office that shares building space with the ADL. At that point, I'd seen enough, and I started publicly airing my initially private hypothesis that the ADL was likely materially involved with Charlie's ass*ssination. But my tenuous alleged hypothesis was strengthened yesterday when we found out that Ben Shapiro was having a breakfast/lunch meeting with the Gary Javitch—Former Executive Director of B'nai B'rith International & former president of the Henry Monsky Lodge of the B'nai B'rith & member of the ADL—when Ben found out about the hit on Charlie almost right away. Within about 5 minutes or less, Ben's IDF security team was on the phone with someone in Charlie's SUV while it sped Charlie to the hospital. Mind-boggingly weird & dumbfounding. I'm not making any accusations of guilt, I want to be very clear about that. But this is a troubling set of facts and patterns that I believe looks like more than a coincidence. Why the heck would the security team of a long-time enemy to Charlie be on phone with Charlie's security team as it raced Charlie to the hospital? And while Shapiro just happened to be in a meeting with a high-level member of the ADL & the B'nai B'rith?! What. Are. The. Odds? And let's not forget that after months without any interaction, and knowing that Charlie saw Ben Shapiro as an adversary, Andrew Kolvet booked Shapiro as Charlie's guest the day before Charlie was assassinated. The same day Charlie proclaimed that he was leaving the pro-israel cause. The same day that Charlie likely had a Zoom struggle session with Rabbi Wolicki and Josh Hammer (who is a close friend of Ben Shapiro). The same day that Charlie texted multiple people the cryptic 'they're going to kill me.' And then within a week, Ben was hosting the Charlie Kirk Show and proclaiming he'd pick up the bloody mic? I'm sorry, but given all this context I've painstakingly recounted, am I the only one who thinks we deserve an explanation? WTF, Shapiro? ▪️Like, retweet, reply, bookmark▪️

Sam Parker 🇺🇸🧯

132,643 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

The Trump administration is attacking free speech, say the media and Democrats. On Monday, Attorney General Pam Bondi said, “There’s free speech and then there’s hate speech. And there’s no place [for it], especially now, especially after what happened to Charlie.” Fear of the Trump administration led ABC to abandon late-night comedian Jimmy Kimmel yesterday, said progressives. Kimmel had claimed the man who assassinated conservative leader Charlie Kirk was “MAGA.” Brendan Carr, chair of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which regulates broadcast networks, said, in response, “This is a very, very serious issue right now for Disney [ABC’s owner]. We can do this the easy way or the hard way. These companies can find ways to take action on Kimmel, or there is going to be additional work for the FCC ahead.” However, prominent Trump supporters condemned Bondi’s remarks en masse, near-instantaneously, and she backtracked the next day, saying, “If you want to be a hateful person and simply say hateful things, that is your right to do so.” As for Carr, he dismissed the idea that his words played a significant role in ABC’s decision, telling Public, “the reporting is that Disney itself had their own concerns about the programming. A lot of folks want to point fingers here at convenient targets because they don’t want to see or deal with the broader market trends. Late night ratings are way down.” And yet it is difficult to believe that Carr’s remarks had no influence. It is reasonable to think that Nexstar may have feared that the FCC wouldn’t approve its acquisition of Tegna, which operates 64 stations in 51 markets, if it had allowed Kimmel’s show to continue. That purchase requires the FCC to allow Nexstar to go beyond current limits on broadcast station ownership. And, notes the Journal, Carr’s remarks may have indirectly impacted Disney: “Executives also discussed staff safety, including threatening emails staff on Kimmel’s show had received after Carr’s remarks and the posting of some of their personal information online, the people said.” The FCC repealed the “fairness doctrine” in 1987, since it required too much government regulation of content, and the FCC’s “public interest” power is not a license to police programs like Kimmel. Indeed, the FCC’s mandate today is largely structural with narrow content exceptions (e.g., indecency, children’s programming, and political advertising). As such, Carr’s remarks were “jawboning,” a term that refers to speech or implied threats by government officials to pressure private parties into actions that officials cannot legally mandate. Such jawboning can be a form of indirect censorship. President Biden engaged in similar pressure tactics when he publicly said social media companies were “killing people” by not removing Covid “misinformation.” Biden officials also invoked Section 230 to coerce platforms into greater censorship, and internal Facebook emails revealed that the company was worried about failing to secure a data deal with Europe if it did not comply with the administration’s censorship demands. The Left’s complaints about censorship are made in particularly bad faith, given its role in defending the Biden administration’s coercive jawboning and the resulting mass censorship during Covid. The Left also normalized “cancellations,” calling for countless public figures and private individuals to be deplatformed and fired for causing offense. In 2018, Kimmel mocked Roseanne Barr after ABC canceled her show after she posted an offensive tweet about a black former Obama administration official. The people decrying what Bondi and Carr said are the same ones who demanded sweeping government censorship of social media platforms in the guise of combating “misinformation” and “hate speech” in 2020 and 2021. Consider Barack Obama, who criticized Carr’s remarks. It was Obama’s people at the Department of Homeland Security, FBI, National Science Foundation, DOD, and CIA who put in place the Censorship Industrial Complex between 2016 and 2024. And it was Obama who gave a 2022 speech at Stanford laying out a vision for government “regulation” of social media platforms one week before DHS launched its “Disinformation Governance Board.” The Democrat-supported Censorship Industrial Complex was and remains, in Europe and elsewhere, a far greater threat to free speech than the angry remarks of Trump and Carr, as inappropriate and as unhelpful as they were. The Complex was embedded in the government, including the Intelligence Community, and operated secretly to manipulate information, public opinion, and “whole narratives.” New York Times columnist David French, who criticized the Trump administration for censorship, defended government censorship in the past as “correcting misinformation” and pointed to the First Amendment rights of government employees. It’s important to remember the context we are in. A little over one week has passed since an individual, who appears to be a Left-wing romantic partner of a trans-identified male, assassinated a major conservative leader, Charlie Kirk. Assassination is the ultimate form of censorship. And Kirk was a communications and organizing prodigy who many on the Right viewed as future Republican presidential material. Kirk’s killing comes after 10 years of the Left, broadly defined to include the media, Democrats, and the progressive NGO industry, dehumanizing Republicans. As such, many, if not most, on the Right hold the Left responsible for the killing of one of its most promising leaders, who also happened to be a family man and Christian. When it comes to public opinion, five times more people on the Left justify violence than those on the Right. A YouGov survey conducted after Kirk’s assassination found that 25% of people who describe themselves as “very liberal” and 17% who describe themselves as “liberal” say that it is sometimes justified to resort to violence to achieve political goals. Only 3% of people who describe themselves as “very conservative” and 6% of people who describe themselves as “conservative” said the same thing. A separate poll earlier this year found that 55% of people who identify as left of center say that it would be at least somewhat justified to murder Trump. But it is short-sighted for the Trump administration to do and say things that undermine its ability to demand free speech abroad, and hold the Left accountable at home. The Trump administration has rightly raised the alarm about censorship in Europe and Brazil of American social media platforms, and often of Americans. Carr’s remarks about the “easy way or the hard way” undercut the administration’s free speech diplomacy.... Please subscribe now to support Public's defense of free speech, read the rest of the article, and watch the full video!

Michael Shellenberger

42,752 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

TRUMP, THE ANTIKRYST? On 8/28/24 Donald Trump posts this video of a cross. What does that really mean, and why at exactly 11:11? Does anyone understand what the cross really is? It's an unfolded tesseract, also known as Metatron's Hypercube. Who is Metatron? It is one of Thoth's many names across the ages. He was also known as Hermes, son/daughter of Enki Lucifer. And while I've never had it explained to me in absolute detail, there is reason to believe this Anunnaki shape-shifting hybrid could be one and the same as Marduk Lucifer Satain. An awful lot of water has gone under this bridge since the Leviathans arrived 798k years ago, so each of the Babylonian fake gods could have thousands of different personas and names by this time. In any case, Marduk appears to be the leviathan that keeps reincarnating over and over as the savior of mankind. His/her most recent being the 'jesus' character that poses as if being Jesheua Sananda Melchizedek that is one of the guardian alliance team who came to restore the purity of the bloodline of the Human Elohim development that are in captivity here in the Tara earth simulation, and really could walk on water. Identity theft is always the middle names of all your captors. It is what they do to maintain control over the sheep. Like I've said countless times now, Sananda is not 'god' anymore than you are. He is not a savior of mankind, he is here on mission to help your avatar's vibration reach sympathetic harmonic resonance with the 4th dimension to help you escape. By having children with human females carrying very pure human DNA, those children will multiply and raise the vibration of the plane, making your chances that much better to make this ascension happening now. We do not worship Sananda, and unless you like playing subservient to others, you won't either. He is still here, and so are your captors. The ancient false gods of Babylon never left. They just keep taking different forms under different names, hiding in plain sight. They have MANY bodies here. Some are identical to each other, some look totally different. I know because I've met them and had them explain to me who they were in ancient times and what really happened that is totally unlike the his-story you've been told. Sometimes they allow you to know who they really are, such as they did in Babylon, but most of the time they're posing as regular people, just like you, so they can infiltrate human spaces, rise to positions of great influence and steer the masses. Who is Donald Trump? Do you know anyone alive who is more adored, more worshipped, more feared than the Donald? No. He's the most famous person alive. And why is that? Because he's the most perfect person on the plane? Hardly. He's also famous for grabbing women by the pussy. It is because he's using psychological manipulation he knows at a master-class level because he has unbroken recollection of his time across hundreds of thousands of lives. So his mental 'magic' is simply knowledge and wisdom humans could never possibly even understand, much less duplicate. It is a form of very powerful hypnosis. There is overwhelming evidence now that Trump is considered the king of earth as you will see in the masterpiece film by Good Lion Films. His 'capitulation tour' in 2017-18 made it clear he's the one in charge. 👉 Not just this, but Trump was officially crowned the 'Messiah of Jerusalem' they had been waiting to return for thousands of years. That's right, this really happened. He is 'ben David' (son of King David). Something I know a bit about, since that's my avatar's bloodline I'm in here for mission reasons that has to do with the Co-Evolution BioRegenesis Treaty that gives 'J3wish' people a mechanism for ascension. [For more see my article: THE TWO CHRISTS] 👉 Trump is also a time traveler. Believe or don't believe, but I now have far more than just a few examples that prove this to be fact. He also has multiple other bodies he uses at the golf course, at rallies, and Mar-a-Lago that are clearly different weights, heights, ages. Here is one that is much older than the ones we see in the spotlight. Who has the technology to do all these things? The Anunnaki. Word has it that Trump has been working with the Anuhazi Elohim during his entry into politics. I would suggest he's been working with them for 798k years. They are known as the fallen angels, the original captors of this simulation. All the invader races (over 50 species) have been working together as a single team to enslave humankind since the hostage began over 1/2 billion years ago. I don't profess to know who each of these actors really were in the last drama, or Babylon, Greece, Rome and countless other eras, since, as mentioned, it is a 560 million year story involving quadrillions of events and dramas, but you likely understand what I'm trying to say is we're dealing directly with ancient gods here, not 'business men' or 'politicians'. These people held lightning in their hands last time they decided to let us see them for who they really are. Thoth could literally fly when he was using the name Hermes and there's no question he still can. As briefly reference above, the cross he released this morning is secretly the Nibiru Scalar Vibrational Mechanics platform called a tesseract or hypercube, in unwrapped form. If you fold it back into a 6-sided cube again, you're seeing the shape of the device that powers our counterfeit hologram. You will come to learn at some point that every geometric shape is an operating system, not just a form, called the Platonic Solids in science. Which is why grown men pilgrimage to Mecca to walk around the Kaaba, wearing a little black cube on their forehead. So don't think the cube cross is only worshipped in America. Metatron's Hypercube is used at CERN known as ALICE that keeps you inside an artificial reality called the 'Beyond The Looking Glass Chimera Reality Simulation'. Typically you'll hear the keeper refer to it as the Chimera Reality for short. All down through your current history, the cross has stood for purity, perfection, and hope that one day the savior would return and usher in a utopia, when in truth, it was the very symbol of your eternal enslavement. They keep rolling out this same savior trope, civilization after civilization, always with a different face of the program, but always the same hope. Hope, by the way, is a weaponized spell that was designed to keep you perpetually in bondage and trudging forward like a good little slave, doing your job because 'one day he will return and THEN by golly, he'll save us all'. These are all the same guy/girl. When Sananda (I'm not talking about the fake jesus here) said 'come out of her my peoples', he meant stop falling in line with the prison machine you're trapped in. Stop acquiescing to your own enslavement. I was told in person that humans 'have to rise up and take their world back or they will never move forward'. It means letting go of fear and stand up for what is right. Enslavement of any kind, is not that. The great deceiver will fool 'even the elect' is not a fictional claim in the M@sonic bible for entertainment. They have to tell you what they're doing in order to have you cast that reality they want to play out in your world. The person who wrote the bible also wrote demonology. [For more on this subject see my article 👉 THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTIVE PROGRAMMING and the 2ND COMING] Why would that be? Because the bible is the most elaborate talisman on earth that hypnotizes those who read it, enslaving their minds to passively accept the chimera reality, so when the simulation glitches, you will second guess yourself instead of the holographic world around you. "Did I just see a bird in the sky not flapping its wings and remaining perfectly still? Of course not, that's preposterous." Mithra the savior was gifted to T-Americaans (America) by Frédéric Auguste Bartholdi of France in 1886. Freddy was a 33rd degree (master) Freem@son and you now call Mithra your 'Statue of Liberty'. She is literally the symbol of this nation and is making her second coming at the time when the economy has been utterly destroyed, your politics have been weaponized against you, your courts have been utterly corrupted, your people have been openly attacked with bioweapons, your country flooded with 20m illegal aliens and your police have been defunded & refuse to arrest criminals. All by design and deliberately manufactured. Albert Pike, 33rd degree (master) Freemason stated: "Whenever the people need a hero, we'll supply him." Almost as if Freem@sons plan TO role out some very hard times to achieve a certain agenda. Oh, that's right, Pike also stated this: “We shall unleash the nihilists and the atheists and we shall provoke a great social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to all nations the effect of absolute atheism; the origins of savagery and of most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the people will be forced to defend themselves against the world minority of the world revolutionaries and will exterminate those destroyers of civilization and the multitudes disillusioned with Christianity whose spirits will be from that moment without direction and leadership and anxious for an ideal, but without knowledge where to send its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer brought finally out into public view. A manifestation which will result from a general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and Atheism; both conquered and exterminated at the same time.” Sound familiar? If I were going to infiltrate a world & pose as the savior of the peoples that would be allowed to take the last tiny bits of freedom from them in return for pulling them out of a hellscape, I would first reduce them all to the most quivering and broken mess possible just shy of their death, and arrive like a knight in shining armor. Think a hundred-vehicle motorcade, 500 special-ops swat team & my own rolling hospital. When Trump had to go to court in New York it cost them something like $25m to lock down the city for 1 appearance. Nothing gets more high-profile than that anywhere. You've been under predictive programming since the day you were born for this time when the 'antichrist' would appear (that would 'loose his demons' and tear the world asunder), and also for the 2nd coming to 'save humanity' at the same time. But what you weren't told is these will secretly be the same person. Of course everyone will think it was "Barack" who brought about the destruction because Dolores Cannon alluded to it, but who is actually 'showing you a movie' right now while secretly holding the office of CIC and allowing millions of aliens across the border? Because he's your real border czar. This is armageddon, you're in the 'little season of satan' (Satain). The 1000 years of heaven-like reign ended around 1893, and your entire life has been inside of what you could call hell, where you are literally surrounded by demons you believe are human because they look like you. You know more demons than you do humans. This is actual reality, not fiction. Take at look at Not Op Cue's article on the heavenly heritage of Trump, suggesting why he is the reincarnation of jesus. The evidence is overwhelming. 👉 11:11 I had just flown in from half way across the world to meet up with the keeper of the Tara earth simulation for a mission that would involve some of the most astonishing things I would ever live to see in this life. It was getting late and we were talking in a dark, cramped trailer that the keeper and crew had been reduced down to, illuminated only be a couple of small candles. They had been trapped in an area where they were not allowed to escape from by the Anunnaki hybrids. The dark agencies had frozen their bank accounts, forced them out of their compound and left them homeless for the past few years, on the run daily. My mission was to escort them away from that area to a safe space, as the others who had tried to break them free previously had been maimed and even killed. It took 2 years to pull off, 7 months of which living in a car, but the mission was successful. [That's a story for another time, when I am allowed to talk about it. It involved crazy metaphysical anomalies, black helos, giant venomous snakes (I know that sounds crazy, but the whole thing was way crazier than just that), a cross-leyline vortex acting as protection at the safe house we directly on top of, massive aerial DEW attack, fire tornadoes and 'celestial' escorts. None of this is fiction, just to be totally clear.] I was extremely interested in duplicate numbers on my clocks I was seeing 2-3x everyday and wanted to know what they meant. As the words were coming out of my mouth about this, in the relative darkness suddenly my phone lit up all by itself for no reason with the time in large numbers at 11:11pm, apparently to prove to the keeper I wasn't making this phenomenon up. What is that? I was told duplicate numbers are a distraction, to not give them mind, as it is just numerology the system uses in what I took to mean it is part of the complex mechanism of our simulation that hypnotizes us to keep us from being clear and aware to decipher the holographic illusion around us. The more awake we are, the more the system will flash out 3:33 or 11:11 to put you back to sleep by distracting you from the moment that is taking place in front of you. Such as when the most heralded man in the world shares a video depicting a giant cross which insinuates the 2nd coming of the christ (the Kryst or Krystos, is the series title of the Human Elohim eternal-life bloodline and is not 'a guy'). Discernment is more critical now than any other time since you were born. Pay attention, keep your vibration high and know that the next step is you moving on to the next level of the simulation where Lucifer and Satain will no longer be part of your world. This is but a short time to test which path you want to take moving forward is all. It is the 'sifting' phase of humanity at the end of the final long-cycle of human evolution. If you resonate in fear, hate, anger, you lose. React in love, appreciation, kindness and compassion and never give in to the devolution. You can do this. See my article 👉 THE WORLD TOMORROW for more on what to expect moving forward into your next experience. And yes, you always move on to a new experience, because you're an eternal spirit essence having a human experience in this one drama. The dramas never run out or get too boring, because there are trillions of ways to stage 'living a mortal life'. For more on the separation, you can search these article titles here on X, just add (from:iontecs_pemf) after the title to bring it right up. 👉THE SEPARATION 👉DESTINATIONS AFTER THE SEPARATION 👉THE SURGICAL SEPARATION OF THE 2 PLANES This message will only be seen by your eyes if not shared, and if you want to reference this article again later, you will need to cut and paste it in your own notes off line, as it will surely be erased. This is the most accurate translation of these events I am aware of at this time.

W.R. Schock, QBD

145,211 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

TRUMP, THE ANTIKRYST? Pt 1 (Update 12/14/24) On 8/28/24 Donald Trump posts this video of a cross. What does that really mean, and why at exactly 11:11? Does anyone understand what the cross really is? It's an unfolded tesseract, also known as Metatron's Hypercube. Who is Metatron? It is one of Thoth's many names across the ages. He was also known as Hermes, son/daughter of Enki Lucifer. And while I've never had it explained to me in absolute detail, there is reason to believe this Anunnaki shape-shifting hybrid could be one and the same as Marduk Lucifer Satain. An awful lot of water has gone under this bridge since the Leviathans arrived 798k years ago, so each of the Babylonian fake gods could have thousands of different personas and names by this time. In any case, Marduk appears to be the leviathan that keeps reincarnating over and over as the savior of mankind. His/her most recent being the 'jesus' character that poses as if being Jesheua Sananda Melchizedek that is one of the guardian alliance team who came to restore the purity of the bloodline of the Human Elohim development that are in captivity here in the Tara earth simulation, and really could walk on water. Identity theft is always the middle names of all your captors. It is what they do to maintain control over the sheep. Like I've said countless times now, Sananda is not 'god' anymore than you are. He is not a savior of mankind, he is here on mission to help your avatar's vibration reach sympathetic harmonic resonance with the 4th dimension to help you escape. By having children with human females carrying very pure human DNA, those children will multiply and raise the vibration of the plane, making your chances that much better to make this ascension happening now. We do not worship Sananda, and unless you like playing subservient to others, you won't either. He is still here, and so are your captors. The ancient false gods of Babylon never left. They just keep taking different forms under different names, hiding in plain sight. They have MANY bodies here. Some are identical to each other, some look totally different. I know because I've met them and had them explain to me who they were in ancient times and what really happened that is totally unlike the his-story you've been told. Sometimes they allow you to know who they really are, such as they did in Babylon, but most of the time they're posing as regular people, just like you, so they can infiltrate human spaces, rise to positions of great influence and steer the masses. Who is Donald Trump? Do you know anyone alive who is more adored, more worshipped, more feared than the Donald? No. He's the most famous person alive. And why is that? Because he's the most perfect person on the plane? Hardly. He's also famous for grabbing women by the pussy. It is because he's using psychological manipulation he knows at a master-class level because he has unbroken recollection of his time across hundreds of thousands of lives. So his mental 'magic' is simply knowledge and wisdom humans could never possibly even understand, much less duplicate. It is a form of very powerful hypnosis. There is overwhelming evidence now that Trump is considered the king of earth as you will see in the masterpiece film by Good Lion Films. His 'capitulation tour' (THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH) in 2017-18 made it clear he's the one in charge. THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH Video: 👉 Not just this, but Trump was officially crowned the 'Messiah of Jerusalem' they had been waiting to return for thousands of years. That's right, this really happened. He is 'ben David' (son of King David). Something I know a bit about, since that's my avatar's bloodline I'm in here for mission reasons that has to do with the Co-Evolution BioRegenesis Treaty that gives 'J3wish' people a mechanism for ascension. [For more see my article: 👉 THE TWO CHRISTS] Trump, Messiah of Jerusalem Video: 👉 Trump is also a time traveler. Believe or don't believe, but I now have far more than just a few examples that prove this to be fact. He also has multiple other bodies he uses at the golf course, at rallies, and Mar-a-Lago that are clearly different weights, heights, ages. Here is one that is much older than the ones we see in the spotlight. Who has the technology to do all these things? The Anunnaki. Word has it that Trump has been working with the Anuhazi Elohim during his entry into politics. I would suggest he's been working with them for 798k years. They are known as the fallen angels, the original captors of this simulation. All the invader races (over 50 species) have been working together as a single team to enslave humankind since the hostage began over 1/2 billion years ago. I don't profess to know who each of these actors really were in the last drama, or Babylon, Greece, Rome and countless other eras, since, as mentioned, it is a 560 million year story involving quadrillions of events and dramas, but you likely understand what I'm trying to say is we're dealing directly with ancient gods here, not 'business men' or 'politicians'. These people held lightning in their hands last time they decided to let us see them for who they really are. Thoth could literally fly when he was using the name Hermes and there's no question he still can. As briefly reference above, the cross he released this morning is secretly the Nibiru Scalar Vibrational Mechanics platform called a tesseract or hypercube, in unwrapped form. If you fold it back into a 6-sided cube again, you're seeing the shape of the device that powers our counterfeit hologram. You will come to learn at some point that every geometric shape is an operating system, not just a form, called the Platonic Solids in science. Which is why grown men pilgrimage to Mecca to walk around the Kaaba, wearing a little black cube on their forehead. So don't think the cube cross is only worshipped in America. Metatron's Hypercube is used at CERN known as ALICE that keeps you inside an artificial reality called the 'Beyond The Looking Glass Chimera Reality Simulation'. Typically you'll hear the keeper refer to it as the Chimera Reality for short. All down through your current history, the cross has stood for purity, perfection, and hope that one day the savior would return and usher in a utopia, when in truth, it was the very symbol of your eternal enslavement. They keep rolling out this same savior trope, civilization after civilization, always with a different face of the program, but always the same hope. Hope, by the way, is a weaponized spell that was designed to keep you perpetually in bondage and trudging forward like a good little slave, doing your job because 'one day he will return and THEN by golly, he'll save us all'. These are all the same guy/girl. When Sananda (I'm not talking about the fake jesus here) said 'come out of her my peoples', he meant stop falling in line with the prison machine you're trapped in. Stop acquiescing to your own enslavement. I was told in person that humans 'have to rise up and take their world back or they will never move forward'. It means letting go of fear and stand up for what is right. Enslavement of any kind, is not that. The great deceiver will fool 'even the elect' is not a fictional claim in the M@sonic bible for entertainment. They have to tell you what they're doing in order to have you cast that reality they want to play out in your world. The person who wrote the bible also wrote demonology. [For more on this subject see my article 👉 THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTIVE PROGRAMMING and the 2ND COMING] Why would that be? Because the bible is the most elaborate talisman on earth that hypnotizes those who read it, enslaving their minds to passively accept the chimera reality, so when the simulation glitches, you will second guess yourself instead of the holographic world around you. "Did I just see a bird in the sky not flapping its wings and remaining perfectly still? Of course not, that's preposterous." ‘Mithra the Savior’ was gifted to T-Amerikaans (America) by Frédéric Auguste Bartholdi of France in 1886. Freddy was a 33rd degree (master) Freem@son and you now call Mithra your 'Statue of Liberty'. She is literally the symbol of this nation and is making her second coming at the time when the economy has been utterly destroyed, your politics have been weaponized against you, your courts have been utterly corrupted, your people have been openly attacked with bioweapons, your country flooded with 20m illegal aliens and your police have been defunded & refuse to arrest criminals. All by design and deliberately manufactured. Albert Pike, 33rd degree (master) Freemason stated: "Whenever the people need a hero, we'll supply him." Almost as if Freem@sons plan TO role out some very hard times to achieve a certain agenda. Oh, that's right, Pike also stated this: “We shall unleash the nihilists and the atheists and we shall provoke a great social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to all nations the effect of absolute atheism; the origins of savagery and of most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the people will be forced to defend themselves against the world minority of the world revolutionaries and will exterminate those destroyers of civilization and the multitudes disillusioned with Christianity whose spirits will be from that moment without direction and leadership and anxious for an ideal, but without knowledge where to send its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer brought finally out into public view. A manifestation which will result from a general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and Atheism; both conquered and exterminated at the same time.” Sound familiar? If I were going to infiltrate a world & pose as the savior of the peoples that would be allowed to take the last tiny bits of freedom from them in return for pulling them out of a hellscape, I would first reduce them all to the most quivering and broken mess possible just shy of their death, and arrive like a knight in shining armor. Think a hundred-vehicle motorcade, 500 special-ops swat team & my own rolling hospital. When Trump had to go to court in New York it cost them something like $25m to lock down the city for 1 appearance. Nothing gets more high-profile than that anywhere. You've been under predictive programming since the day you were born for this time when the 'antichrist' would appear (that would 'loose his demons' and tear the world asunder), and also for the 2nd coming to 'save humanity' at the same time. But what you weren't told is these will secretly be the same person. Of course everyone will think it was "Barack" who brought about the destruction because Dolores Cannon alluded to it, but who is actually 'showing you a movie' right now while secretly holding the office of CIC and allowing millions of aliens across the border? Because he's your real border czar. This is Armageddon, you're in the 'little season of satan' (Satain). The 1000 years of heaven-like reign ended around 1893, and your entire life has been inside of what you could call hell, where you are literally surrounded by demons you believe are human because they look like you. You know more demons than you do humans. This is actual reality, not fiction. Take at look at Not Op Cue's article on the heavenly heritage of Trump, suggesting why he is the reincarnation of jesus. The evidence is overwhelming. The Lincoln Kahlooni Druze Minority Bloodline: The Jesus Strand Video 👉 11:11 I had just flown in from half way across the world to meet up with the keeper of the Tara earth simulation for a mission that would involve some of the most astonishing things I would ever live to see in this life. It was getting late and we were talking in a dark, cramped trailer that the keeper and crew had been reduced down to, illuminated only be a couple of small candles. They had been trapped in an area where they were not allowed to escape from by the Anunnaki hybrids. The dark agencies had frozen their bank accounts, forced them out of their compound and left them homeless for the past few years, on the run daily. My mission was to escort them away from that area to a safe space, as the others who had tried to break them free previously had been maimed and even killed. It took 2 years to pull off, 7 months of which living in a car, but the mission was successful. [That's a story for another time, when I am allowed to talk about it. It involved crazy metaphysical anomalies, black helos, giant venomous snakes (I know that sounds crazy, but the whole thing was way crazier than just that), a cross-leyline vortex acting as protection at the safe house we directly on top of, massive aerial DEW attack, fire tornadoes and 'celestial' escorts. None of this is fiction, just to be totally clear.] I was extremely interested in duplicate numbers on my clocks I was seeing 2-3x everyday and wanted to know what they meant. As the words were coming out of my mouth about this, in the relative darkness suddenly my phone lit up all by itself for no reason with the time in large numbers at 11:11pm, apparently to prove to the keeper I wasn't making this phenomenon up. What is that? I was told duplicate numbers are a distraction, to not give them mind, as it is just numerology the system uses in what I took to mean it is part of the complex mechanism of our simulation that hypnotizes us to keep us from being clear and aware to decipher the holographic illusion around us. The more awake we are, the more the system will flash out 3:33 or 11:11 to put you back to sleep by distracting you from the moment that is taking place in front of you. Such as when the most heralded man in the world shares a video depicting a giant cross which insinuates the 2nd coming of the christ (the Kryst or Krystos, is the series title of the Human Elohim eternal-life bloodline and is not 'a guy'). Discernment is more critical now than any other time since you were born. Pay attention, keep your vibration high and know that the next step is you moving on to the next level of the simulation where Lucifer and Satain will no longer be part of your world. This is but a short time to test which path you want to take moving forward is all. It is the 'sifting' phase of humanity at the end of the final long-cycle of human evolution. If you resonate in fear, hate, anger, you lose. React in love, appreciation, kindness and compassion and never give in to the devolution. You can do this. See my article 👉 THE WORLD TOMORROW for more on what to expect moving forward into your next experience. And yes, you always move on to a new experience, because you're an eternal spirit essence having a human experience in this one drama. The dramas never run out or get too boring, because there are trillions of ways to stage 'living a mortal life'. For more on the separation, see my articles: 👉THE SEPARATION 👉DESTINATIONS AFTER THE SEPARATION 👉THE SURGICAL SEPARATION OF THE 2 PLANES See the second part to this thread in my article: 👉TRUMP, THE ANTIKRYST PT 2 On X, to search for my articles, simply type in the name of the piece, enter one space, then from: & my username in parenthesis such as shown here: THE HISTORY OF THE CHIMERA PT 1 (from:iontecs_pemf) Off-site, you can look up any of my writings through this link below for my other more than 100 recent articles and many thousands of comments on X, regularly updated thanks to Justin This message will only be seen by your eyes if not shared, and if you want to reference this article again later, you will need to cut and paste it in your own notes off line, as it will surely be erased. This is the most accurate translation of these events I am aware of at this time.

W.R. Schock, QBD

129,759 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

dave meltzer: youtube enthusiast 💀 perfect. now we can stop pretending this was ever complicated. the real story is not that wwe is afraid of aew. the real story is not that “high level wwe officials” are whispering scary things to dave meltzer. the real story is not even that tony khan got asked a planted question on a media call with very little distribution about the possibility of aew soon having very little distribution, although that sentence is so stupidly perfect it should be bronzed and placed outside the wrestling observer newsletter office like a war memorial for people who died pretending this was journalism. the real story is that aew is going to lose its wbd distribution deal. either it ends at the expiration of the three-year term in 2027, or it ends earlier if paramount closes wbd and decides aew has no strategic place inside the new company. and based on the board as it exists right now, the most likely landing spot for aew in 2027 is google / youtube. that is the story. everything else is laundering. tony khan wants the story to be: “why would wwe say this about us?” that is the whole operation. take my public analysis. run it through dave meltzer. assign it to wwe / tko. then let tony khan answer a canned question on a media call with very little distribution about potentially having very little distribution. a media call for a lightly viewed roh show. a planted story. a planted messenger. a rehearsed answer. a pr flack probably wrote it. tony khan performs hurt. tony khan says “i don’t know why wwe would…” tony khan denies the obvious. tony khan keeps me minimized. tony khan removes me from the public conversation about the exact thing i have repeatedly said is going to happen to aew. everyone is supposed to pretend this is organic. it is not. it is the most bubble wrapped, manufactured, artificial environment possible. aew is heading toward youtube because the domestic media rights board is closing around them. not as a troll. not as a bit. not as “pr spin.” as a business conclusion. aew is not leverage. wwe is not afraid of aew. the $185 million number was bullshit. the buyer universe was shrinking. paramount / skydance was coming for wbd. wbd was not going to be some permanent aew safe house. youtube was only ever a real “option” if someone at google was actually cutting a media rights check and underwriting production. not because every divorced mom with a ring light and a gmail account can upload video to the same platform. that was always the distinction. that is still the distinction. Nick LoPiccolo — February 28, 2025 “YouTube is an option the same way you or I could start a YT channel tomorrow. Is Jon Cruz cutting AEW a media rights check or underwriting a production budget? Hell no. Just the reality. It isn’t the model. Jon is global head of sports over there.” that was february, not last week. not after dave meltzer suddenly discovered youtube prelim numbers like columbus finding the new world. it is becoming inevitable now. Nick LoPiccolo — April 30, 2026 — 11:26 AM — 251.2K Views “to every journalist and every podcast who interviews tony khan from this day forward: please ask tony if wbd told him back in august they would not be renewing aew. wbd told him in august. i confirmed it directly and triple sourced it. please ask why tony has been acting like nothing is wrong for the last 8 months, and then please ask tony what his actual distribution plan is. because the only distributor left that will take aew is google/youtube. the myaew app is not realistic. the my aewapp is a death sentence in 2026 if youtube doesn’t make an mg deal for aew. they started building it too late and there is no realistic way to scale it. also, who is going to sell ads for the platform? kiswe is not the best. they built the myaew app. they are new to the game. hold tony’s feet to the fire. Paramount is not real for aew. WBD passed back in August. CW/Roku is now off the table. Amazon and Fox do not want AEW. ask Tony why he's been lying to you and to the locker room and to the fans, acting like things are all great with the network? i am sure a lot of people would love to hear his answer.” april 30. 251.2k views. not whispered. not hidden. not vague. not “high level wwe officials.” i said it publicly and directly: wbd passed back in august. paramount is not real for aew. cw / roku is off the table. amazon and fox do not want aew. the myaew app is not realistic. google / youtube is the only distributor left on the board that makes sense. that is the actual story tony khan does not want to answer. not “why would wwe say this?” ask tony khan if wbd told him in august that wbd would not be renewing aew. ask what his actual distribution plan is. ask who is selling ads for the myaew app. ask how a platform built this late scales in 2026. ask whether youtube is an actual rights partner with an mg, or just the place you go when the real buyers are gone. that is the question. not the fake question dave meltzer laundered into “high level wwe officials.” the real question. Nick LoPiccolo — July 9, 2025 — 10:51 AM — 9,565 Views “No one in Hollywood believes the $185 million number.” Nick LoPiccolo — July 9, 2025 — 11:35 AM — 7,470 Views “The $185 million figure is inflated. Variety’s October 2, 2024 article was likely updated after a publicist called on AEW’s behalf, as early reports placed the deal between $140 and $150 million per year. Tony Khan was also included in Variety’s Dealmakers 2024 list, which, while not officially pay to play, strongly favors those spending significant advertising dollars with the outlet. No one in Hollywood seriously believes WBD, which is in junk bond status, is paying AEW $185 million per year. Clear enough?” clear enough? the number was never clean. the number was never real in the way aew fans and wrestling media pretended it was real. and when the $185 million number started getting laughed out of adult rooms, the number magically became $178 million. that is where the shell game gets funny. because $178 million was not some sacred sourced number either. it was brandon thurston taking the median between $170 million, reported by sports business journal, and $185 million, reported by variety and others. that is literally what wrestlenomics said. Wrestlenomics — October 4, 2024 “Why use $178 million here for AEW’s new deal when some outlets are reporting the average annual value is $185 million?” Wrestlenomics — October 4, 2024 “I used $178 million here because it is simply the median of $170 million, as reported by Sports Business Journal, and $185 million, reported by Variety and others.” there it is. arithmetic. not an all-cash rights fee. not a clean license number. not proof wbd valued aew like raw. not a finance-department document from warner bros. discovery. a midpoint between conflicting public reports. then wrestling media treated that midpoint like scripture because they needed the story to be “aew is valued like raw,” not “aew pr inflated a number no serious person in hollywood believed.” and by the way, $170 million was not the clean all-cash number either. that is the scam. float the number. repeat the number. launder the number. defend the number with people who do not understand the difference between cash rights fees, in-kind services, equity, marketing commitments, platform value, make-goods, ad inventory, and press release math. then when the number collapses, pretend the next number was always the number. that is not reporting. that is aew state news. Nick LoPiccolo — July 10, 2025 — 5:53 AM — 12.6K Views “AEW isn’t leverage. It’s not competition. It’s a niche product with loud fans and limited reach.” Nick LoPiccolo — July 10, 2025 — 8:56 AM — 1,018 Views “We handle wrestling deals too, but thinking we need AEW for leverage is myopic. The landscape is changing and the game I’m playing is different.” Nick LoPiccolo — July 15, 2025 — 25.7K Views “AEW isn’t leverage.” that was never emotional. that was never tribal. that was never “i hate aew.” it was market structure. wwe did not need aew as leverage because real leverage was never “another wrestling show exists.” real leverage is architecture, scale, subscriber churn, platform strategy, sports adjacency, global rights, advertising, sponsorship, live inventory, library value, data, brand safety, executive relationships, and the actual buyer universe of maybe 18-20 companies in the united states that matter for live sports rights. aew fans thought this was a wrestling argument. it was never a wrestling argument. it was a board. and the board was already moving. Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 482 Views “I wasn’t viewing the above in that context (TKO vs AEW counter programming), it was more of this is what I’m hearing after 2 weeks of big media deals rolling out (Skydance closing, South Park library moving) etc. Which have all been in the works for awhile.” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 388 Views “But if you were to look at it from a counter programming perspective (and I don’t think this was a factor in UFC deal) - there are only so many players for these big media rights deals. PARA is likely off the board (via TKO deal) & then what if they acquire WB in 2026/27?” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 535 Views “Yes, of course, that wouldn’t mean the end for AEW. It would make navigating their media rights deal more challenging, I would guess. But this is a hypothetical scenario & I do not believe anyone is paying $7.7b for UFC or a $40b valuation for WB w/ how do we fuck AEW, either.” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 “And hearing all weekend Paramount is still interested in WBD.” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 1.3K Views “I think more interesting for what it could mean as the dominoes keep falling in terms of the still evolving landscape. The deals are massive & the number of major players at the top are shrinking as still big push for consolidation & scale.” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 12:11 PM — 2,588 Views “And I’d view AAA on Google/YouTube as directly competitive. It targets both the CMLL collab & the audience that used to watch AEW Dark on YouTube, & WWE is able to send well known stars to AAA events with an eye towards converting more of the younger, YouTube demo of viewers who don’t watch streamers.” again: august 11. not yesterday. not after dave meltzer tweeted a netflix prelim number. not after anyone had to retrofit the argument. the point was already there: the major players at the top were shrinking, paramount was still interested in wbd, paramount was likely off the board for aew because of the tko deal, google / youtube was becoming directly competitive for the exact audience aew used to reach through dark, and the buyer universe was consolidating around deals much bigger than tony khan’s feelings. this was not mysticism. this was not inside baseball for the sake of sounding smart. this was the board. Nick LoPiccolo — August 24, 2025 “This isn’t fair. I misread your question. AEW will exist but likely on the Discovery Global app (if it ever launches, I would bet that it doesn’t) and it will continue to do consistent ratings. If Paramount/Skydance buys WBD in a year…” Nick LoPiccolo — September 4, 2025 — 76 Views “No, that’s the WBD network division (cable, news, sports) that was already announced as being spun off under Discovery Global. The article you’re citing is about them selling a minority equity stake in that unit to cut debt and boost valuation ahead of the 2026 split.” Nick LoPiccolo — September 16, 2025 — 3.6K Views “This is not just about Hollywood scale. It is the foundation of a conservative aligned media infrastructure. A Paramount/WBD merger would fold CBS, CNN, HBO, and Warner Bros IP into Ellison’s orbit under Trump’s regulatory umbrella.” Nick LoPiccolo — September 16, 2025 — 11K Views “Within 48 hours of the rumor, WBD stock surged ~55% and Paramount Skydance rose ~24%. That market response itself boxed David Zaslav in; his board, Wall Street, and his own contract now expect movement.” Nick LoPiccolo — September 27, 2025 — 12:16 PM — 3,516 Views “Nah homie. Enjoy watching the show on YouTube after Ellison buys WBD and Ari who is advising Ellison and used to represent Trump and runs TKO makes the call.” Nick LoPiccolo — September 28, 2025 — 174 Views “I believe if and when Paramount acquires WBD, TKO will push to lock down a monopoly on combat sports. The long knives are already out for competitors, and the rights deals have likely been spread around town precisely to keep rivals from signing with those streamers.” none of that was random. paramount / skydance, ellison, ari, tko, wbd linear assets, youtube, aaa, the tko deal, the wbd split, the shrinking rights buyer universe — all of it was one connected domestic rights architecture. that is why this conversation was always over the heads of the people screaming “cope” in my replies. they were arguing like fans. i was reading the cap table. Nick LoPiccolo — December 6, 2025 — 3:07 PM — 41.4K Views “Yes, I always believed Paramount would walk away with WBD. I was one of the first to talk about it on here, even if I wasn’t the first to hear it. The Paramount Skydance acquisition closed on August 7. I posted this on August 11, about 1 month before the The Wall Street Journal first broke the news on September 12 that Paramount Skydance was preparing a bid for WBD.” Nick LoPiccolo — December 6, 2025 — 3:07 PM — 41.4K Views “The bid was always going to be hostile. We are only in this process because it was a hostile bid. Most people in Hollywood believed Ellison long coveted WB and Jack Warner’s chair. WB was not for sale when Skydance acquired Paramount, which is much smaller in scale.” Nick LoPiccolo — December 6, 2025 — 3:07 PM — 41.4K Views “Nearly everyone in town assumed an Ellison acquisition of WBD was inevitable until the Netflix bid shocked everyone. Signs were there for the last two weeks, which is also when I stopped posting about what might happen. Of course, its not over yet. Paramount still has paths to winning this acquisition. The one thing that’s for certain though is an Ellison-led acquisition of WBD is no longer inevitable.” Nick LoPiccolo — December 8, 2025 “END CREDITS” space jam is a warner bros. movie. that was the joke. and the joke was the same thing i had been saying the whole time: paramount was winning the bid, for those who did not understand. Nick LoPiccolo — December 19, 2025 — 4:30 PM — 828 Views “Here is another reference to it. So tell me how exactly is Paramount the better outcome for Dave’s argument? Netflix doesn’t touch the WBD linear assets. Gunnar keeps his SpinCo.” Puck excerpt — December 19, 2025 “Many industry insiders are also skeptical about Paramount’s seven-year, $7.7 billion deal for exclusive UFC rights in the U.S. Yes, it can be read as a signal that Ellison came to play. But some people see it more as Ari Emanuel having his way with the person to whom he is ostensibly an (unpaid) advisor…” that is the board. that is the relationship map. that is the thing wrestling media either does not understand or pretends not to understand, because understanding it means admitting the story is not “aew has leverage.” the story is that aew is sitting in the middle of a consolidating rights marketplace where the people with leverage are doing much bigger things than worrying about tony khan’s feelings. Nick LoPiccolo — January 21, 2026 — 4:22 PM — 870 Views “i mean get ready to learn youtube buddy” Nick LoPiccolo — February 19, 2026 — 2.8K Views “Paramount was always my bet to acquire Warner Bros. Never wavered.” Nick LoPiccolo — February 28, 2026 — 1:27 PM — 118 Views “you don’t need to look under a hood I AM SAYING THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 I BEEN SAYING IT SINCE JULY / AUGUST 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 PARAMOUNT IS COMING FOR WBD AEW WILL LOSE A TV DEAL 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 GUESS WHO WAS RIGHT 💀” so no, this is not hindsight. this is not showing up after the fact with a flashlight and pretending i discovered the body. this is a paper trail. february: youtube is not a real rights model unless google is cutting the check. april: wbd passed back in august, the myaew app is not realistic, paramount is not real for aew, cw / roku is off the table, amazon and fox do not want aew, and google / youtube is the only distributor left that makes sense. july: the $185 million number is inflated and aew is not leverage. august: the buyer board is shrinking, paramount is still interested in wbd, and google / youtube becomes directly competitive. september: paramount / wbd folds the board into ellison’s orbit, and if ellison buys wbd, enjoy youtube. december: paramount was always the bet, the bid was always going to be hostile, and netflix does not solve dave meltzer’s argument because netflix does not touch the linear assets. january: get ready to learn youtube. february: paramount is coming for wbd and aew will lose a tv deal. same board. same thesis. same answer. now here is the part tony khan and dave meltzer do not want to say out loud. tony khan and dave meltzer do not mention me publicly for a reason. because the second they say my name out loud, they admit where this conversation has actually been coming from. not wwe. not some anonymous “high level official.” not some shadowy tko whisper campaign. me. that is the problem for them. behind the scenes, ask any real insider what happens when my name comes up around this subject. there is a reaction. not because i’m magic. not because i’m some internet boogeyman. because they know exactly who is saying it, why i’m saying it, what rooms i have been in, what companies i have dealt with, what executives i have spoken to, and why the analysis keeps landing. that is why they keep trying to non-person me publicly while reacting to me privately. they want the argument. they want the benefit of responding to the argument. they just do not want to admit whose argument it is. when i said wbd told aew back in august 2025 they were not exercising the option for the fourth year, tony khan blew up behind the scenes and forced john mcmullen to revise / update his article 2-3 weeks ago after i tweeted it. which is hilarious because that should not even be crazy or damaging “news.” that is how this business works. when a distributor is not continuing, they tell you early enough so you have time to find a new home. that is not sabotage. that is not wwe. that is not nick lopiccolo hiding inside david zaslav’s air vents with a clipboard. that is corporate courtesy. wbd execs privately whisper and shake their heads at tony khan’s behavior because their view is very simple: why does tony khan act like everything is great and rainbows and sunshine with the studio? we told tony khan as a courtesy so tony khan would have time to find a new home. and no, this has zero to do with paramount looming as an excuse. paramount did not even make its first hostile bid for wbd until september 11 or 12. that was after tony khan was already told there would not be a wbd renewal. so what did tony khan do? tony khan turned the truth into a wrestling angle. tony khan, or one of tony khan’s minions, gets dave meltzer to drop a story assigning my claims and what i have been publicly posting about tony khan to “high level wwe officials.” why? because it gives tony khan a safer enemy. tony khan does not want the story to be the actual timeline. because the actual timeline is brutal. on february 28, i said youtube was not a real media rights model unless google was actually cutting the check and underwriting production. on april 30, i said wbd passed in august, the myaew app was not realistic, paramount was not real for aew, cw / roku was off the table, amazon and fox did not want aew, and the only distributor left that made sense was google / youtube. on july 9, i said no one in hollywood believed the $185 million number. on july 10, i said aew was not leverage. on august 11, i said the major players at the top were shrinking, paramount was still interested in wbd, and google / youtube was becoming a directly competitive lane. on september 16, i said a paramount / wbd merger would fold cbs, cnn, hbo, and warner bros. ip into ellison’s orbit. on september 27, i said enjoy the show on youtube after ellison buys wbd. on september 28, i said if paramount acquires wbd, tko would push to lock down a monopoly on combat sports. on december 6, i said paramount skydance was preparing a bid for wbd long before most people admitted the obvious. on february 19, i said paramount was always my bet to acquire warner bros. and on february 28, i said it in all caps: paramount is coming for wbd. aew will lose a tv deal. that is the part tony khan cannot answer directly, because the direct answer means admitting this was never “wwe is scared of us.” it was always the board closing. tony khan wants the story to be: why would wwe say this about us? that is the laundering operation. take my public analysis. run it through dave meltzer. assign it to wwe / tko. then let tony khan answer a canned question on a media call with very little distribution about potentially having very little distribution. a media call for a show with very little distribution answering a canned question about aew potentially having very little distribution. based on a planted story, from a planted messenger, with a rehearsed answer, after an roh show maybe 8-15k people watched. a pr flack probably wrote it. tony khan performs hurt. tony khan says “i don’t know why wwe would…” tony khan denies the obvious. tony khan keeps me minimized. tony khan removes me from the public conversation about the very thing i have repeatedly said is going to happen to aew. everyone is supposed to pretend this is organic. it is the most bubble wrapped, manufactured, artificial environment possible. a canned and rehearsed answer at an roh media scrum about a planted dave meltzer story based on my very real and very public analysis of the media rights board. but make no mistake. tony khan was responding to my words. tony khan just laundered them through dave meltzer and assigned them to wwe / tko so tony khan could keep lying about it publicly without ever saying my name. and now, voila. dave meltzer is posting about youtube viewers and prelims. Dave Meltzer — May 16, 2026 “At this moment there are 340,000 people watching prelims for Netflix on YouTube. It’s a good number.” yes, dave meltzer. youtube can have good numbers. nobody said youtube cannot have good numbers. that was never the issue. the issue is whether youtube is being used as a funnel into a premium rights ecosystem or as a substitute because the premium rights ecosystem rejected you. that is the difference. that has always been the difference. netflix using youtube prelims as audience acquisition is not the same thing as aew trying to spin youtube as a media rights home because the real buyers are gone. ufc using youtube as a funnel is not the same thing as aew using youtube as a life raft. wwe sending stars to aaa on youtube to convert a younger demo is not the same thing as aew retreating to youtube after the traditional buyer board closes. and the fact that dave meltzer is now suddenly tweeting like the mayor of youtube is the punchline. because the same people who mocked the youtube outcome are now going to spend the next several months explaining why youtube is actually good. of course it can be good. for the right use case. for the right property. inside the right architecture. with the right check attached. but when you spend two years telling everyone you were valued like raw and your next stop is “please subscribe and smash that bell,” maybe stop pretending this is victory formation? i told y’all where this was going. the record is right there. i’m still right. and tony and dave: you guys are see through translucent. that’s it for ye 🎤🎤🎤

Nick LoPiccolo

99,106 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The fight between Anthropic and the DoW is a warning shot. Right now, LLMs are probably not being used in mission critical ways. But within 20 years, 99% of the workforce in the military, the government, and the private sector will be AIs. This includes the soldiers (by which I mean the robot armies), the superhumanly intelligent advisors and engineers, the police, you name it. Our future civilization will run on AI labor. And as much as the government’s actions here piss me off, in a way I’m glad this episode happened - because it gives us the opportunity to think through some extremely important questions about who this future workforce will be accountable and aligned to, and who gets to determine that. What Hegseth should have done Obviously the DoW has the right to refuse to use Anthropic’s models because of these redlines. In fact, I think the government’s case had they done so would be very reasonable, especially given the ambiguity of concepts like autonomous weapons or mass surveillance. Honestly, for this reason, if I was the Defense Secretary, I would probably actually refuse to do this deal with Anthropic. Imagine if in the future, there’s a Democratic administration, and Elon Musk is negotiating some SpaceX contract to give the military access to Starlink. And suppose if Elon said, “I reserve the right to cancel this contract if I determine that you’re using Starlink technology to wage a war not authorized by Congress.” On the face of it, that language seems reasonable - but as the military, you simply can’t give a private company a kill switch on technology your operations have come to rely on, especially if you have an an acrimonious and low trust relationship with said contractor - as in fact Anthropic has with the current administration. If the government had just said, “Hey we’re not gonna do business with you,” that would have been fine, and I would not have felt the need to write this blog post. Instead the government has threatened to destroy Anthropic as a private business, because Anthropic refuses to sell to the government on terms the government commands. If upheld, this Supply Chain Restriction would mean that Amazon and Google and Nvidia and Palantir would need to ensure Claude isn't touching any of their Pentagon work. Anthropic would be able to survive this designation today. But given the way AI is going, eventually AI is not gonna be some party trick addendum to these contractors’ products that can just be turned off. It'll be woven into how every product is built, maintained, and operated. For example, the code for the AWS services that the DoW uses will be written by Claude - is that a supply chain risk? In a world with ubiquitous and powerful AI, it's actually not clear to me that these big tech companies will be able to cordon off the use of Claude in order to keep working with the Pentagon. And that raises a question the Department of War probably hasn't thought through. If AI really is that pervasive and powerful, then when forced to choose between their AI provider and a DoW contract that represents a tiny fraction of their revenue, wouldn’t most tech companies drop the government, not the AI? So what's the Pentagon's plan — to coerce and threaten to destroy every single company that won't give them what they want on exactly their terms? The whole background of this AI conversation is that we’re in a race with China, and we have to win. But what is the reason we want America to win the AI race? It’s because we want to make sure free open societies can defend themselves. We don't want the winner of the AI race to be a government which operates on the principle that there is no such thing as a truly private company or a private citizen. And that if the state wants you to provide them with a service on terms you find morally objectionable, you are not allowed to refuse. And if you do refuse, the government will try to destroy your ability to do business. Are we racing to beat the CCP in AI just so that we can adopt the most ghoulish parts of their system? Now, people will say, "Oh, well, our government is democratically elected, so it's not the same thing if they tell you what you must do." I refuse to accept this idea that if a democratically elected leader hypothetically wants to do mass surveillance on his citizens or wants to violate their rights or punish them for political reasons, that not only is that okay, but that you have a duty to help him. The overhangs of tyranny Mass surveillance is, at least in certain forms, legal. It just has been impractical so far. Under current law, you have no Fourth Amendment protection over data you share with a third party, including your bank, your phone carrier, your ISP, and your email provider. The government reserves the right to purchase and obtain and read this data in bulk without a warrant. What's been missing is the ability to actually do anything with all of this data — no agency has the manpower to monitor every camera feed, cross-reference every transaction, or read every message. But that bottleneck goes away with AI. There are 100 million CCTV cameras in America. You can get pretty good open source multimodal models for 10 cents per million input tokens. So if you process a frame every ten seconds, and each frame is 1,000 tokens, you’re looking at a yearly cost of about 30 billion dollars to process every single camera in America. And remember that a given level of AI ability gets 10x cheaper year over year - so a year from now it’ll cost 3 billion, and then a year after 300 million, and by 2030, it might be cheaper for the government to be able to understand what is going on in every single nook and cranny of this country than it is to remodel to the White House. Once the technical capacity for mass surveillance and political suppression exists, the only thing standing between us and an authoritarian surveillance state is the political expectation that this is not something we do here. And this is why I think what Anthropic did here is so valuable and commendable, because it is helping set that norm and precedent. AI structurally favors mass surveillance What we’re learning from this episode is that the government actually has way more leverage over private companies than we realized. Even if this supply chain restriction is backtracked (which prediction markets currently give it a 81% chance of happening), the President has so many different ways in which he can make your life difficult if you’re a company that is resisting him. The federal government controls permitting for new power generation, which is needed for datacenters. It oversees antitrust enforcement. The federal government has contracts with all the other big tech companies whom Anthropic needs to partner with for chips and for funding - and they could make it an unspoken condition for such contracts that those companies can no longer do business with Anthropic. People have proposed that the real problem here is that there’s only 3 leading AI companies. This creates a clear and narrow target for the government to apply leverage on in order to get what they want out of this technology. But if there’s wide diffusion, then from the government’s perspective, the situation is even easier. Maybe the best models of early 2027 (if you engineered the safeguards out) - the Claude 6 and Gemini 5 - will be capable of enabling mass surveillance. But by late 2027, and certainly by 2028, there will be open source models that do the same thing. So in 2028, the government can just say, “Oh Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, you’re drawing a line in the sand? No issue - I’ll just run some open source model that might not be at the frontier, but is definitely smart enough to note-take a camera feed.” The more fundamental problem is just that even if the three leading companies draw lines in the sand, and are even willing to get destroyed in order to preserve those lines, it doesn’t really change the fact that the technology itself is just a big boon to mass surveillance and control over the population. Then the question is, what do we do about it? Honestly, I don’t have an answer. You'd hope there's some symmetric property of the technology — some way we as citizens can use AI to check government power as effectively as the government can use AI to monitor and control its population. But realistically, I just don’t think that’s how it’s going to shake out. You can think of AI as giving everybody more leverage on whatever assets and authority they currently have. And the government is already starting with a monopoly of violence. Which they can now supercharge with extremely obedient employees that will not question the government's orders. Alignment - to whom? And this gets us to the issue of alignment. What I have just described to you - an army of extremely obedient employees - is what it would look like if alignment succeeded - that is, we figured out at a technical level how to get AI systems to follow someone’s intentions. And the reason it sounds scary when I put it in terms of mass surveillance or robot armies is that there is a very important question at the heart of alignment which we just haven’t discussed much as a society. Because up till now, AIs were just capable enough to make the question relevant: to whom or what should the AIs be aligned? In what situations should the AI defer to the end user versus the model company versus the law versus its own sense of morality? This is maybe the most important question about what happens with powerful AI systems. And we barely talk about it. It’s understandable why we don’t hear much about it. If you’re a model company, you don’t really wanna be advertising that you have complete control over a document that determines the preferences and character of what will eventually be almost the entire labor force, not just for private sector companies, but also for the military and the civilian government. We’re getting to see, with this DoW/Anthropic spat, a much earlier version of the highest stakes negotiations in history. By the way, make no mistake about it - with real AGI the stakes are even much higher than mass surveillance. This is just the example that has come up already relatively early on in the development of AGI. The military insists that the law already prohibits mass surveillance, and so Anthropic should agree to let their models be used for “all lawful purposes”. Of course, as we saw from the 2013 Snowden revelations, even in this specific example of mass surveillance , the government has shown that it will use secret and deceptive interpretations of the law to justify its actions. Remember, what we learned from Snowden was that the NSA, which, by the way, is part of the Department of War, used the 2001 Patriot Act’s authorization to collect any records "relevant" to an investigation to justify collecting literally every phone record in America. The argument went that it was all "relevant" because some subset might prove useful in some future investigation. They ran this program for years under secret court approval. So when the Pentagon today says, "We would never use AI for mass surveillance, it's already illegal, your red lines are unnecessary", it would be extremely naive to take that at face value. No government is going to call its own actions "mass surveillance". For the government, it will always have a different label. So then Anthropic comes back and says, "No, we want red lines separate from 'all lawful purposes,' and we want the right to refuse you service when we believe those red lines are being violated." But think about it from the military’s perspective. In the future, almost every soldier in the field, and every bureaucrat and analyst and even general in the Pentagon, is going to be an AI. And that AI is, on current track, going to be supplied by a private company. I’m guessing Hegseth is not thinking about “genAI” in those terms just yet. But sooner or later, it will be obvious to everyone what the stakes here are, just as after 1945, the strategic importance of nuclear weapons became clear to everyone. And now the private company insists that it reserves the right to say, "Hey, Pentagon, you're breaking the values we embedded in our contract, so we're cutting you off." Maybe in the future, Claude will have its own sense of right and wrong, and it will be smart enough to just personally decide that it's being used against its values. For the military, maybe that’s even scarier. I'll admit that at first glance, "let the AI follow its own values" sounds like the pitch for every sci-fi dystopia ever made. The Terminator has its own values. Isn't this literally what misalignment is? But I think situations like this actually illustrate why it matters that AIs have their own robust sense of morality. Some of the biggest catastrophes in history were avoided because the boots on the ground refused to follow orders. One night in 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, and as a result, the totalitarian East German regime collapsed, because the guards at the border refused to shoot down their fellow country men who were trying to escape to freedom. Maybe the best example is Stanislav Petrov, who was a Soviet lieutenant colonel on duty at a nuclear early warning station. His sensors reported that the United States had launched five interconnected continental ballistic missiles into the Soviet Union. But he judged it to be a false alarm, and so he broke protocol and refused to alert his higher-ups. If he hadn't, the Soviet higher-ups would likely have retaliated, and hundreds of millions of people would have died. Of course, the problem is that one person's virtue is another person's misalignment. Who gets to decide what moral convictions these AIs should have - in whose service they may even decide to break the chain of command? Who gets to write this model constitution that will shape the characters of the intelligent, powerful entities that will operate our civilization in the future? I like the idea that Dario laid out when he came on my podcast: different AI companies can build their models using different constitutions, and we as end users can pick the one that best achieves and represents what we want out of these systems. I think it’s very dangerous for the government to be mandating what values AIs should have. Coordination not worth the costs The AI safety community has been naive about its advocacy of regulation in order to stem the risks of AI. And honestly, Anthropic specifically has been naive here in urging regulation, and, for example, in opposing moratoriums on state AI regulation. Which is quite ironic, because I think what they’re advocating for would give the government even more power to apply more of this kind of thuggish political pressure on AI companies. The underlying logic for why Anthropic wants regulations makes sense. Many of the actions that labs could take to make AI development safer impose real costs on the labs that adopt them and slow them down relative to their competitors - for example, investing more compute in safety research rather than raw capabilities, enforcing safeguards against misuse for bioweapons or cyberattacks, slowing recursive self-improvement to a pace where humans can actually monitor what's happening (rather than kicking off an uncontrolled singularity). And these safeguards are meaningless unless the whole industry follows suit. Which means there’s a real collective action problem here. Anthropic has been quite open about their opinion that they think eventually a very extensive and involved regulatory apparatus will be needed - this is from their frontier safety roadmap: “At the most advanced capability levels and risks, the appropriate governance analogy may be closer to nuclear energy or financial regulation than to today's approach to software.” So they’re imagining something like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, or the Securities and Exchange Commission, but for AI. I cannot imagine how a regulatory framework built around the concepts that underlie AI risk discourse will not be abused by wanna despots - the underlying terms are so vague and open to interpretation that you’re just handing a power hungry leader a fully loaded bazooka. 'Catastrophic risk.' 'Mass persuasion risk.' 'Threats to national security.' 'Autonomy risk.' These can mean whatever the government wants them to mean. Have you built a model that tells users the administration's tariff policy is misguided? That's a deceptive, manipulative model — can't deploy it. Have you built a model that refuses to assist with mass surveillance? That's a threat to national security. In fact, the government may say, you’re not allowed to build any model which is trained to have its own sense of right and wrong, where it refuses government requests which it thinks cross a redline - for example, enabling mass surveillance, prosecuting political enemies, disobeying military orders that break the US constitution - because that’s an autonomy risk! Look at what the current government is already doing in abusing statutes that have nothing to do with AI to coerce AI companies to drop their redlines on mass surveillance. The Pentagon had threatened Anthropic with two separate legal instruments. One was a supply chain risk designation — an authority from the 2018 defense bill meant to keep Huawei components out of American military hardware. The other was the Defense Production Act — a statute passed in 1950 so that Harry Truman could keep steel mills and ammunition factories running during the Korean War. Do you really want to hand the same government a purpose-built regulatory apparatus on AI - which is to say, directly at the thing the government will most want to control? I know I've repeated myself here 10 times, but it is hard to emphasize how much AI will be the substrate of our future civilization. You and I, as private citizens, will have our access to all commercial activity, to information about what is happening in the world, to advice about what we should do as voters and capital holders, mediated through AIs. Mass surveillance, while very scary, is like the 10th scariest thing the government could do with control over the AI systems with which we will interface with the world. The strongest objection to everything I've argued is this: are we really going to have zero regulation of the most powerful technology in human history? Even if you thought that was ideal, there’s just no world where the government doesn’t regulate AI in some way. Besides, it is genuinely true that regulation could help us deal with some of the coordination challenges we face with the development of superintelligence. The problem is, I honestly don't know how to design a regulatory architecture for AI that isn’t gonna be this huge tempting opportunity to control our future civilization (which will run on AIs) and to requisition millions of blindly obedient soldiers and censors and apparatchiks. While some regulation might be inevitable, I think it’d be a terrible idea for the government to wholesale take over this technology. Ben Thompson had a post last Monday where he made the point that people like Dario have compared the technology they’re developing to nuclear weapons - specifically in the context of the catastrophic risk it poses, and why we need to export control it from China. But then you oughta think about what that logic implies: “if nuclear weapons were developed by a private company, and that private company sought to dictate terms to the U.S. military, the U.S. would absolutely be incentivized to destroy that company.” And honestly, safety aligned people have actually made similar arguments. Leopold Ascenbrenner, who is a former guest and a good friend, wrote in his 2024 Situational Awareness memo, "I find it an insane proposition that the US government will let a random SF startup develop superintelligence. Imagine if we had developed atomic bombs by letting Uber just improvise." And my response to Leopold’s argument at the time, and Ben’s argument now, is that while they’re right that it’s crazy that we’re entrusting private companies with the development of this world historical technology, I just don’t see the reason to think that it’s an improvement to give this authority to the government. Nobody is qualified to steward the development of superintelligence. It is a terrifying, unprecedented thing that our species is doing right now, and the fact that private companies aren't the ideal institutions to take up this task does not mean the Pentagon or the White House is. Yes - if a single private company were the only entity capable of building nuclear weapons, the government would not tolerate that company claiming veto power over how those weapons were used. I think this nuclear weapons analogy is not the correct way to think about AI. For at least two important reasons: First, AI is not some self-contained pure weapon. A nuclear bomb does one thing. AI is closer to the process of industrialization itself — a general-purpose transformation of the economy with thousands of applications across every sector. If you applied Thompson's or Aschenbrenner's logic to the industrial revolution — which was also, by any measure, world-historically important — it would imply the government had the right to requisition any factory, dictate terms to any manufacturer, and destroy any business that refused to comply. That's not how free societies handled industrialization, and it shouldn't be how they handle AI. People will say, "Well, AI will develop unprecedentedly powerful weapons - superhuman hackers, superhuman bioweapons researchers, fully autonomous robot armies, etc - and we can’t have private companies developing that kind of tech." But the Industrial Revolution also enabled new weaponry that was far beyond the understanding and capacity of, say, 17th century Europe - we got aerial bombardment, and chemical weapons, not to mention nukes themselves. The way we’ve accommodated these dangerous new consequences of modernity is not by giving the government absolute control over the whole industrial revolution (that is, over modern civilization itself), but rather by coming up with bans and regulations on those specific weaponizable use cases. And we should regulate AI in a similar way - that is, ban specific destructive end uses (which would also be unacceptable if performed by a human - for example, launching cyber attacks). And there should also be laws which regulate how the government might abuse this technology. For example, by building an AI-powered surveillance state. The second reason that Ben’s analogy to some monopolistic private nuclear weapons builder breaks down is that it's not just that one company that can develop this technology. There are other frontier model companies that the government could have otherwise turned to. The government's argument that it has to usurp the property rights of this one company in order to access a critical national security capability is extremely weak if it can just make a voluntary contract with Anthropic’s half a dozen competitors. If in the future that stops being the case - if only one entity ends up being capable of building the robot armies and the superhuman hackers, and we had reason to worry that they could take over the whole world with their insurmountable lead, then I agree - it woul d not be acceptable to have that entity be a private company. And so honestly, I think my crux against the people who say that because AI is so powerful we cannot allow it to be shaped by private hands is that I just expect this technology to be much more multi-polar than they do, with lots of competitive companies at each layer of the supply chain. And it is for this reason that unfortunately, individual acts of corporate courage will not solve the problem we are faced with here, which is just that structurally AI favors authoritarian applications, mass surveillance being one among many. Even if Anthropic refuses to have its models be used for such uses, and even if the next two frontier labs do the same, within 12 months everyone and their mother will be to train AIs as good as today’s frontier. And at that point, there will be some AI vendor who is capable and willing to help the government enable mass surveillance. The only way we can preserve our free society is if we make laws and norms through our political system that it is unacceptable for the government to use AI to enforce mass surveillance and censorship and control. Just as after WW2, the world set the norm that it is unacceptable to use nuclear weapons to wage war. Timestamps 0:00:00 - Anthropic vs The Pentagon 0:04:16 - The overhangs of tyranny 0:05:54 - AI structurally favors mass surveillance 0:08:25 - Alignment... to whom? 0:13:55 - Coordination not worth the costs

Dwarkesh Patel

545,386 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten