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Elon Musk just explained why the SpaceX IPO is an energy story and the energy constraint is why he believes space becomes the only viable path for AI to scale (Save this). The argument he is making is one of the most important and least understood things happening in technology right now. The United States currently consumes roughly 500 gigawatts of electricity on average. To double that capacity which is what continued AI expansion on the current terrestrial trajectory would eventually require would mean building as many power plants as currently exist in the entire country. He is not arguing that this is technically impossible, just that communities are not willing to accept it, that permitting timelines make it unrealistic, and that the hard ceiling on Earth based power generation means the expansion of AI compute will eventually hit a wall that no amount of capital can overcome on the ground. His observation is that in space, that wall does not exist. A solar panel in orbit produces roughly five times more power than the same panel on Earth, operates in continuous sunlight uninterrupted by weather or nighttime, and benefits from the vacuum of space as a completely passive cooling system meaning the two largest operating costs of any terrestrial data center, energy and cooling, are effectively eliminated. He then said that you could theoretically increase harnessed energy by a factor of one million and still be using less than a millionth of the sun's total energy output. This is the underlying physics of why SpaceX filed with the FCC to launch up to one million solar powered AI satellites, and why they described that constellation in their own filing as a first step toward becoming a Kardashev Type II civilization capable of harnessing the full power of the sun. To understand what makes this credible rather than visionary, you need to understand what SpaceX already controls that no other company on earth possesses. Starship, once operating at full cadence, can deliver 100 to 150 tons of payload to orbit per launch, at a target cost per kilogram that is an order of magnitude lower than any existing vehicle. Musk's stated ambition is to scale Starship to 10,000 to 30,000 launches per year, a frequency that would allow the deployment of orbital compute infrastructure at a pace that is currently unimaginable with any existing rocket. He told xAI staff earlier this year that achieving space-based AI at scale will eventually require manufacturing facilities on the moon, building solar panels and heat dissipation structures from lunar silicon and aluminum, and launching them into orbit from there rather than from Earth's surface because the moon's lower gravity makes the economics of launch dramatically more favorable. SpaceX's S-1 filing explicitly states that its launch capabilities could enable massive AI compute satellite constellations with the potential for millions of satellites for orbital data centers, with the first launch potentially occurring as soon as 2028. Google and Alphabet are already in advanced talks with SpaceX about deploying space-based data centers. Starcloud, a startup running Nvidia H100 GPUs in orbit, has already validated that high-performance AI inference workloads can operate in space, with plans to scale to five gigawatts of orbital compute power by 2035. This is why Musk believes the cost crossover happens in two to three years because SpaceX's launch cost trajectory intersects with the accelerating energy constraint on the ground in a way that makes space genuinely cheaper, faster, and less regulated at exactly the moment AI demand is hitting its hardest physical limits.
1:01

Elon Musk just explained why the SpaceX IPO is an energy story and the energy constraint is why he believes space becomes the only viable path for AI to scale (Save this). The argument he is making is one of the most important and least understood things happening in technology right now. The United States currently consumes roughly 500 gigawatts of electricity on average. To double that capacity which is what continued AI expansion on the current terrestrial trajectory would eventually require would mean building as many power plants as currently exist in the entire country. He is not arguing that this is technically impossible, just that communities are not willing to accept it, that permitting timelines make it unrealistic, and that the hard ceiling on Earth based power generation means the expansion of AI compute will eventually hit a wall that no amount of capital can overcome on the ground. His observation is that in space, that wall does not exist. A solar panel in orbit produces roughly five times more power than the same panel on Earth, operates in continuous sunlight uninterrupted by weather or nighttime, and benefits from the vacuum of space as a completely passive cooling system meaning the two largest operating costs of any terrestrial data center, energy and cooling, are effectively eliminated. He then said that you could theoretically increase harnessed energy by a factor of one million and still be using less than a millionth of the sun's total energy output. This is the underlying physics of why SpaceX filed with the FCC to launch up to one million solar powered AI satellites, and why they described that constellation in their own filing as a first step toward becoming a Kardashev Type II civilization capable of harnessing the full power of the sun. To understand what makes this credible rather than visionary, you need to understand what SpaceX already controls that no other company on earth possesses. Starship, once operating at full cadence, can deliver 100 to 150 tons of payload to orbit per launch, at a target cost per kilogram that is an order of magnitude lower than any existing vehicle. Musk's stated ambition is to scale Starship to 10,000 to 30,000 launches per year, a frequency that would allow the deployment of orbital compute infrastructure at a pace that is currently unimaginable with any existing rocket. He told xAI staff earlier this year that achieving space-based AI at scale will eventually require manufacturing facilities on the moon, building solar panels and heat dissipation structures from lunar silicon and aluminum, and launching them into orbit from there rather than from Earth's surface because the moon's lower gravity makes the economics of launch dramatically more favorable. SpaceX's S-1 filing explicitly states that its launch capabilities could enable massive AI compute satellite constellations with the potential for millions of satellites for orbital data centers, with the first launch potentially occurring as soon as 2028. Google and Alphabet are already in advanced talks with SpaceX about deploying space-based data centers. Starcloud, a startup running Nvidia H100 GPUs in orbit, has already validated that high-performance AI inference workloads can operate in space, with plans to scale to five gigawatts of orbital compute power by 2035. This is why Musk believes the cost crossover happens in two to three years because SpaceX's launch cost trajectory intersects with the accelerating energy constraint on the ground in a way that makes space genuinely cheaper, faster, and less regulated at exactly the moment AI demand is hitting its hardest physical limits.

Milk Road AI

12,738 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

This is the next big plan for SpaceX: AI Data Centers in Space. • To achieve even a small fraction of a Kardashev Type II civilization (harnessing the full energy of the Sun), AI compute will require orders of magnitude more energy than Earth can ever provide. • Earth only intercepts about 1–2 billionths of the Sun’s total energy output. • Massive-scale AI (e.g., a million times more energy than Earth could produce) can only be powered by capturing far more solar energy in space. • Space-based solar-powered AI satellites/compute clusters are therefore inevitable. • In space, sunlight is continuous (no night, no clouds, no atmosphere), so no batteries are needed. • Solar panels in space can be extremely lightweight and cheap (no glass, no storm-proof framing required). • Cooling in space is dramatically easier and simpler: just radiate heat directly into the cold vacuum — no water, no fans, no liquids, no massive cooling infrastructure. • Most of the mass/volume of current supercomputer racks (e.g., GB300) is cooling hardware; in space that largely disappears. • The cost-effectiveness of electricity and compute in space will soon be overwhelmingly better than on Earth. • Elon’s Prediction: within ~5 years (by ~2030), the lowest-cost way to run large-scale AI will be solar-powered satellites in space. • A terawatt/year of AI compute is essentially impossible on Earth with any realistic build-out of power plants. • Scaling both power generation and cooling on Earth at the required rate is physically and politically unfeasible.
3:55

This is the next big plan for SpaceX: AI Data Centers in Space. • To achieve even a small fraction of a Kardashev Type II civilization (harnessing the full energy of the Sun), AI compute will require orders of magnitude more energy than Earth can ever provide. • Earth only intercepts about 1–2 billionths of the Sun’s total energy output. • Massive-scale AI (e.g., a million times more energy than Earth could produce) can only be powered by capturing far more solar energy in space. • Space-based solar-powered AI satellites/compute clusters are therefore inevitable. • In space, sunlight is continuous (no night, no clouds, no atmosphere), so no batteries are needed. • Solar panels in space can be extremely lightweight and cheap (no glass, no storm-proof framing required). • Cooling in space is dramatically easier and simpler: just radiate heat directly into the cold vacuum — no water, no fans, no liquids, no massive cooling infrastructure. • Most of the mass/volume of current supercomputer racks (e.g., GB300) is cooling hardware; in space that largely disappears. • The cost-effectiveness of electricity and compute in space will soon be overwhelmingly better than on Earth. • Elon’s Prediction: within ~5 years (by ~2030), the lowest-cost way to run large-scale AI will be solar-powered satellites in space. • A terawatt/year of AI compute is essentially impossible on Earth with any realistic build-out of power plants. • Scaling both power generation and cooling on Earth at the required rate is physically and politically unfeasible.

Nic Cruz Patane

49,035 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Elon Musk in 2008: "NASA was going to pay Russia $70M per astronaut. SpaceX could do it for $15M" Musk is presenting SpaceX to a small audience. He shows a video of the Falcon 9 first stage firing: "This is almost a million pounds of thrust in vacuum, about four times the maximum thrust of a 747. It's pretty much Armageddon down there. You don't want to be standing at the base of that test stand." He explains the NASA contract: "The contract SpaceX has right now is to demonstrate cargo transfer to the space station and return of experiments to Earth. What we're hoping NASA will exercise is an option on that contract to also carry astronauts. I think they will exercise that option fairly soon." On the coming gap in American spaceflight: "The Space Shuttle is retiring in 2010. So unless our spacecraft is active, the US will not have the ability to send people to orbit. For about five or six years, unless SpaceX is successful, there will be no American manned space capability. There'll just be the Russians." He describes the situation bluntly: "The Russians are charging us over $70 million per seat after the shuttle retires. They got us over a barrel and they're doing us hard. We'll spend half a billion dollars per year on the Russians just buying tickets for six or seven astronauts to go to the space station." Musk shares SpaceX's cost: "Our cost per person, even assuming no reusability, assuming every bit of it is expended and no refurbishment, is about $15 million per person. And it's us. The jobs are here. So I think it's kind of a no-brainer. But no-brainers in Washington DC don't always happen." On Congress: "We've been given money for the cargo portion but not for the manned portion. The amount we're asking for to get this done is $300 million. For every year that we're dependent on the Russians, we have to send them half a billion dollars. It seems kind of ludicrous. But anyway, that's DC." Someone asks about the space elevator: "The idea is you have this really long cable, like 40 to 60,000 miles long, with the ends way out in space and the base on Earth. There are a lot of issues with the space elevator. It relies on super strong materials, carbon nanotubes. Until we build, say, a carbon nanotube footbridge, then I think we should not really be thinking too much about building a 60,000-mile elevator. Not this century." On space solar power: "If there's anyone in the world who should love space solar power, it's me. I'm chairman and the largest shareholder of a solar company called SolarCity, and I've got a rocket company. So it should be perfect. Unfortunately, I don't think space solar power makes sense. I wish it did because that'd be awesome. But even if you assume it costs zero to transport the solar panels to space, when you take into account the equipment to convert the energy to microwaves, then equipment on the ground to convert it back to electricity, just that capital cost blows you out of the water. It's not competitive with terrestrial solar power. So there's no point in even thinking about it." On fuel costs: "The fuel and oxidizer cost is really super low. For our big rocket, it's only a couple hundred thousand dollars. For our small rocket, it's about $30,000 or $40,000. If you just look at the propellant cost, it's very, very cheap." On the long-term goal: "One of the design goals for Falcon 9 is that it can go from in the hangar to in the air in under 60 minutes, which would be super fast for a rocket, particularly a big rocket. It's going to take several flights before we get there. But as long as we lay the foundation and make sure the design is capable of that, we can at least have the possibility of getting to a flight an hour in the future."
16:43

Elon Musk in 2008: "NASA was going to pay Russia $70M per astronaut. SpaceX could do it for $15M" Musk is presenting SpaceX to a small audience. He shows a video of the Falcon 9 first stage firing: "This is almost a million pounds of thrust in vacuum, about four times the maximum thrust of a 747. It's pretty much Armageddon down there. You don't want to be standing at the base of that test stand." He explains the NASA contract: "The contract SpaceX has right now is to demonstrate cargo transfer to the space station and return of experiments to Earth. What we're hoping NASA will exercise is an option on that contract to also carry astronauts. I think they will exercise that option fairly soon." On the coming gap in American spaceflight: "The Space Shuttle is retiring in 2010. So unless our spacecraft is active, the US will not have the ability to send people to orbit. For about five or six years, unless SpaceX is successful, there will be no American manned space capability. There'll just be the Russians." He describes the situation bluntly: "The Russians are charging us over $70 million per seat after the shuttle retires. They got us over a barrel and they're doing us hard. We'll spend half a billion dollars per year on the Russians just buying tickets for six or seven astronauts to go to the space station." Musk shares SpaceX's cost: "Our cost per person, even assuming no reusability, assuming every bit of it is expended and no refurbishment, is about $15 million per person. And it's us. The jobs are here. So I think it's kind of a no-brainer. But no-brainers in Washington DC don't always happen." On Congress: "We've been given money for the cargo portion but not for the manned portion. The amount we're asking for to get this done is $300 million. For every year that we're dependent on the Russians, we have to send them half a billion dollars. It seems kind of ludicrous. But anyway, that's DC." Someone asks about the space elevator: "The idea is you have this really long cable, like 40 to 60,000 miles long, with the ends way out in space and the base on Earth. There are a lot of issues with the space elevator. It relies on super strong materials, carbon nanotubes. Until we build, say, a carbon nanotube footbridge, then I think we should not really be thinking too much about building a 60,000-mile elevator. Not this century." On space solar power: "If there's anyone in the world who should love space solar power, it's me. I'm chairman and the largest shareholder of a solar company called SolarCity, and I've got a rocket company. So it should be perfect. Unfortunately, I don't think space solar power makes sense. I wish it did because that'd be awesome. But even if you assume it costs zero to transport the solar panels to space, when you take into account the equipment to convert the energy to microwaves, then equipment on the ground to convert it back to electricity, just that capital cost blows you out of the water. It's not competitive with terrestrial solar power. So there's no point in even thinking about it." On fuel costs: "The fuel and oxidizer cost is really super low. For our big rocket, it's only a couple hundred thousand dollars. For our small rocket, it's about $30,000 or $40,000. If you just look at the propellant cost, it's very, very cheap." On the long-term goal: "One of the design goals for Falcon 9 is that it can go from in the hangar to in the air in under 60 minutes, which would be super fast for a rocket, particularly a big rocket. It's going to take several flights before we get there. But as long as we lay the foundation and make sure the design is capable of that, we can at least have the possibility of getting to a flight an hour in the future."

Grey

56,512 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

You will remember that a month or two ago, I posted about the solar system at my home in Johannesburg, which has allowed me to hardly use Eskom or City Power because it generates enough energy for my entire usage, including powering geysers. After that post, one of you on this page, a solar expert, reached out privately and advised me to remove the electric geysers from the main solar system. He said the solar batteries were doing too many cycles because they were powering the geysers, and that this would shorten their lifespan. His advice was simple, remove the geysers from the battery load if I wanted the batteries to last the full period that they are built for. I took that advice seriously. I then asked my plumber, Shanil, who owns Metro Plumbers, to guide me on where to get high-quality solar geysers in Johannesburg so that I could replace the electric ones. Shanil told me about a new technology called the Elon Smart Solar PV System. He explained that it is much cheaper than buying completely new solar geysers. Instead of replacing the electric geyser, you simply buy the Elon unit, which comes with its own solar panels, and it is fitted onto your existing electric geyser. That is what I did. I have now removed all four electric geysers from the home solar system that powers my home. Each of them has been converted using the Elon Smart Solar PV technology. They are now powered by their own dedicated solar panels. The four geysers are running on a total of thirteen panels. So what this means is that I will never use Eskom or City Power again because in the past, when it was cloudy for three or four days, I would return to the grid to assist the batteries. This was happening because the batteries were carrying a heavy load that included four geysers. Now that the geysers have been removed from the main solar system and converted to their own dedicated solar supply, I will never return to Eskom or City Power. Even on cloudy days unless the solar system breaks down. The system is able to generate enough power for everything that I need. I also use a gas cooker, which helps reduce the electrical load. I hope this information helps you. If I had gone for the top-quality geysers that are exclusively solar, I would have paid between R25,000 and R30,000 per geyser. That would have come to around R120,000 for four geysers. Of course, there are cheaper solar geysers that you can get, but they are cheaper for a reason. So, in essence, I saved half the amount I would have paid for the geysers if I had chosen top-quality solar geysers. If you are in Johannesburg and you are interested, Shanil’s number is +27 (76) 890-5582. He can do the work for you. The gadgets and their panels cost R60,000 from Plumbing Supplies Sanitaryware Centre in Woodmead. So I have had the system in place for a week now and it is working very well. I have deliberately allowed all the geysers to continue heating so that I could test whether everything is functioning correctly, and the water is as hot as it should be. So that is the story. I thought I should share it with you for those who might want to reduce their bills. P/s The other interesting key feature of this system is that I can control it from my phone. If it is very cloudy and the water is not as hot as I want it to be, I can simply go onto the app and instruct that particular geyser to use the grid. Unlike my previous setup, where I had to switch the whole home solar system onto the grid, now each individual geyser can independently switch to the grid and heat the water to a temperature that I have set. Once the water reaches that set temperature, it automatically disconnects. I can also decide to switch off a geyser from using electricity, in my case from my solar system, or for those who do not have solar systems, from Eskom. In the same way, I can switch it off from using the solar panels. For instance, if there are four geysers and one of them is in a bedroom that is not being used, I can switch off that geyser completely so that it is not heating water unnecessarily. This gives you control, flexibility, and saves you a lot of money in the long run. You can read more about this technology here;
0:23

You will remember that a month or two ago, I posted about the solar system at my home in Johannesburg, which has allowed me to hardly use Eskom or City Power because it generates enough energy for my entire usage, including powering geysers. After that post, one of you on this page, a solar expert, reached out privately and advised me to remove the electric geysers from the main solar system. He said the solar batteries were doing too many cycles because they were powering the geysers, and that this would shorten their lifespan. His advice was simple, remove the geysers from the battery load if I wanted the batteries to last the full period that they are built for. I took that advice seriously. I then asked my plumber, Shanil, who owns Metro Plumbers, to guide me on where to get high-quality solar geysers in Johannesburg so that I could replace the electric ones. Shanil told me about a new technology called the Elon Smart Solar PV System. He explained that it is much cheaper than buying completely new solar geysers. Instead of replacing the electric geyser, you simply buy the Elon unit, which comes with its own solar panels, and it is fitted onto your existing electric geyser. That is what I did. I have now removed all four electric geysers from the home solar system that powers my home. Each of them has been converted using the Elon Smart Solar PV technology. They are now powered by their own dedicated solar panels. The four geysers are running on a total of thirteen panels. So what this means is that I will never use Eskom or City Power again because in the past, when it was cloudy for three or four days, I would return to the grid to assist the batteries. This was happening because the batteries were carrying a heavy load that included four geysers. Now that the geysers have been removed from the main solar system and converted to their own dedicated solar supply, I will never return to Eskom or City Power. Even on cloudy days unless the solar system breaks down. The system is able to generate enough power for everything that I need. I also use a gas cooker, which helps reduce the electrical load. I hope this information helps you. If I had gone for the top-quality geysers that are exclusively solar, I would have paid between R25,000 and R30,000 per geyser. That would have come to around R120,000 for four geysers. Of course, there are cheaper solar geysers that you can get, but they are cheaper for a reason. So, in essence, I saved half the amount I would have paid for the geysers if I had chosen top-quality solar geysers. If you are in Johannesburg and you are interested, Shanil’s number is +27 (76) 890-5582. He can do the work for you. The gadgets and their panels cost R60,000 from Plumbing Supplies Sanitaryware Centre in Woodmead. So I have had the system in place for a week now and it is working very well. I have deliberately allowed all the geysers to continue heating so that I could test whether everything is functioning correctly, and the water is as hot as it should be. So that is the story. I thought I should share it with you for those who might want to reduce their bills. P/s The other interesting key feature of this system is that I can control it from my phone. If it is very cloudy and the water is not as hot as I want it to be, I can simply go onto the app and instruct that particular geyser to use the grid. Unlike my previous setup, where I had to switch the whole home solar system onto the grid, now each individual geyser can independently switch to the grid and heat the water to a temperature that I have set. Once the water reaches that set temperature, it automatically disconnects. I can also decide to switch off a geyser from using electricity, in my case from my solar system, or for those who do not have solar systems, from Eskom. In the same way, I can switch it off from using the solar panels. For instance, if there are four geysers and one of them is in a bedroom that is not being used, I can switch off that geyser completely so that it is not heating water unnecessarily. This gives you control, flexibility, and saves you a lot of money in the long run. You can read more about this technology here;

Hopewell Chin’ono

67,957 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

In our last conversation, Gavin said data centers in space will be the most important thing in 3-4 years. He explains that means "racks in space" and thinks orbital compute will solve the watts shortage: "When people hear data centers in space, they picture a Pentagon-sized building in space. That's not what it is. A Blackwell rack weighs 3,000 pounds. It's eight feet high. Four feet deep. Three feet wide. It's racks in space. It has these solar wings that are probably 500 feet long on each side. You keep it in a Sun-synchronous orbit, so those solar panels are always in the sun. And then because it's in an exactly Sun-synchronous orbit, the radiator, which extends behind it for hundreds of feet is in the shade. You link these racks using lasers traveling through vacuum which are already on every Starlink. SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite fleet, which is 98 or 99% of all satellites in orbit. Every Starlink, they're cooling it today. I think Starlink V3 is going to operate at 20 kilowatts. A Blackwell rack is only 100 kilowatts. And people talk a lot about density. Well, if you're connecting the racks with lasers through vacuum, you can make the rack bigger physically. In space, there's all sorts of things that SpaceX can do. They also now operate the largest data center on Earth. I've spent a lot of time at Starbase over the years, and I've talked to a lot of SpaceX engineers. It is the most talented group of engineers on planet Earth, and they're very confident they have solved this."
2:30

In our last conversation, Gavin said data centers in space will be the most important thing in 3-4 years. He explains that means "racks in space" and thinks orbital compute will solve the watts shortage: "When people hear data centers in space, they picture a Pentagon-sized building in space. That's not what it is. A Blackwell rack weighs 3,000 pounds. It's eight feet high. Four feet deep. Three feet wide. It's racks in space. It has these solar wings that are probably 500 feet long on each side. You keep it in a Sun-synchronous orbit, so those solar panels are always in the sun. And then because it's in an exactly Sun-synchronous orbit, the radiator, which extends behind it for hundreds of feet is in the shade. You link these racks using lasers traveling through vacuum which are already on every Starlink. SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite fleet, which is 98 or 99% of all satellites in orbit. Every Starlink, they're cooling it today. I think Starlink V3 is going to operate at 20 kilowatts. A Blackwell rack is only 100 kilowatts. And people talk a lot about density. Well, if you're connecting the racks with lasers through vacuum, you can make the rack bigger physically. In space, there's all sorts of things that SpaceX can do. They also now operate the largest data center on Earth. I've spent a lot of time at Starbase over the years, and I've talked to a lot of SpaceX engineers. It is the most talented group of engineers on planet Earth, and they're very confident they have solved this."

Patrick OShaughnessy

268,098 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

I’m seeing a lot of questions on the launch of China’s Chang’e 6 mission yesterday to get samples - for the first time - from the far side of the moon. We don’t know (afaik) why specifically they’re doing that, but we have a pretty good idea what grand vision China is working towards with their space program. How? From this 2022 video by Chas Freeman (former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Nixon's interpreter during his era-defining 1972 China visit), who imho is undoubtedly one of the most knowledgeable former US officials on China. He says that according to his own discussions with people running China’s space program, they’re following the vision described in the book "The high frontier" by Gerard K. O'Neill, which Freeman says has "become the bible of the Chinese space program". I read the book. So what vision does it describe? The book was written in 1976 by O'Neill who was a professor of physics at Princeton University. He also founded the Space Studies Institute, an organization devoted to funding research into space manufacturing and colonization. In other words, he knew his stuff. The book makes the very fair point that we have massive resource constraints on earth, especially given the growing population. He estimated in 1976 that we should be "about six and a half billion people in the year 2000", and we were 6.114 billion back then so he was pretty prescient. He estimates that these constraints will progressively give rise to more and more social tensions as the growing earth population competes for our limited resources as well as faces global problems like climate change. In his view, dealing with this will either require "an authoritarian regime capable of mounting the immense task of social reorganization needed to escape catastrophe" or, alternatively, “mankind would [need to adopt] a static society [that would be] forced in self-defense to suppress new ideas". The 3rd alternative is of course the colonization of space. The most interesting aspect of the book is that he claims everything he writes is feasible with knowledge and technology that already existed in the late 70s. In short he calls for the establishment of large human habitats in the Earth-Moon system, located at stable Lagrange points ("parking spots" in space where gravity from different spatial bodies cancel each other out). In particular he developed the concept of what's known today as the "O'Neill cylinder" which he says "could support quite easily a population of ten million people, growing its food in agricultural cylinders near but outside the main habitat". Energy-wise, it'd simply make use of solar energy via a system of mirrors. As he describes it: "the concentration of the unvarying, intense sunlight of space by very lightweight, inexpensive mirrors can provide all the energy that industry will ever need [...] at a fraction of a cent per kilowatt-hour". He envisages building these habitats with material from the moon, shot into space via "mass drivers", a form of electromagnetic catapult. Also "the habitats would have artificial gravity similar as that of earth by rotating about twenty-eight times an hour”, but he also envisages low-gravity areas, especially for recreational activities such as swimming pools or dancing representations. To trade with earth, he develops the idea of beaming solar power back to earth via "microwave from solar power stations in orbit". As he describes it "the microwave beam would arrive at Earth with a beam width of about seven kilometers. Its intensity would be modest, less than half that of sunlight. In contrast to sunlight, though, it would be there all the time, even at night or in clouds or rain, and it would be in a form ready for conversion to DC current with a loss of only 10 percent. The areas receiving these beams’ output on Earth would be fenced, and outside the fence the intensity of microwave radiation would be no higher than outside a microwave oven with the door closed. He estimates that if "Satellite Solar Power Stations (SSPS) were to become the sole source of electric energy in the United States in the year 2000, the land area necessary for the SSPS antennas would still be only 0.2 percent of that of the continental United States". In short, the establishment of space colonies could lead to the fulfillment of a good share of Earth's energy needs. Last but not least he describes life in space habitats as better than that of earth, largely thanks to the level of control we'd have over the environment (total climate control which would enable an abundance of food and no natural disaster) as well as unlimited cheap energy. To conclude, Chas Freeman typically really knows his stuff when it comes to China and he’s very intellectually honest (a rare trait among US officials) so I have no doubt he tells the truth when he says the Chinese told him that was the vision. And China famously thinks very big and very long term so it would be quite like them to go for something like this. There are also quite a few tangible signs that China is working towards that vision. See for instance this November 2022 news where “China’s space station will join a project to collect solar power from space and send it to Earth in a high-energy microwave beam”: That’s exactly O’Neill’s vision! Or check this October 2022 news that says China is developing new "electromagnetic sledges" that can propel a carriage weighing a few tonnes to a record speed, with a key application for this being “aerospace”: Remember: O’Neill’s vision is to build his habitats with material from the moon, shot into space via "mass drivers", a form of electromagnetic catapult. So there you go… Or also the fact that the Chinese will build, together with the Russians, a moon base - planned for 2028 - powered by a “space nuclear reactor” that’s already been developed (on Earth) and has passed review by China’s Ministry of Science: The space nuclear reactor can generate 1MW of electricity, enough to power 10 International Space Stations. Enough power, maybe, to undertake mining activity and power an electromagnetic catapult… After visions change, the world changes, so it’s also possible that China’s view on what they want to do has evolved. In any case, Chas Freeman is right that China’s motivation for all its initiatives in space can’t just be to “boldly explore where no-one has been before”, they have to be working towards something. And Freeman is also absolutely right to lament that the U.S. decided to ban any cooperation in space with the Chinese. Those endeavors are something that could have been jointly developed as a multilateral effort to unite us all as a species… Instead China is now forced to go at it alone with Russia and we face a future where our petty divisions on Earth will be carried with us to space…
3:58

I’m seeing a lot of questions on the launch of China’s Chang’e 6 mission yesterday to get samples - for the first time - from the far side of the moon. We don’t know (afaik) why specifically they’re doing that, but we have a pretty good idea what grand vision China is working towards with their space program. How? From this 2022 video by Chas Freeman (former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Nixon's interpreter during his era-defining 1972 China visit), who imho is undoubtedly one of the most knowledgeable former US officials on China. He says that according to his own discussions with people running China’s space program, they’re following the vision described in the book "The high frontier" by Gerard K. O'Neill, which Freeman says has "become the bible of the Chinese space program". I read the book. So what vision does it describe? The book was written in 1976 by O'Neill who was a professor of physics at Princeton University. He also founded the Space Studies Institute, an organization devoted to funding research into space manufacturing and colonization. In other words, he knew his stuff. The book makes the very fair point that we have massive resource constraints on earth, especially given the growing population. He estimated in 1976 that we should be "about six and a half billion people in the year 2000", and we were 6.114 billion back then so he was pretty prescient. He estimates that these constraints will progressively give rise to more and more social tensions as the growing earth population competes for our limited resources as well as faces global problems like climate change. In his view, dealing with this will either require "an authoritarian regime capable of mounting the immense task of social reorganization needed to escape catastrophe" or, alternatively, “mankind would [need to adopt] a static society [that would be] forced in self-defense to suppress new ideas". The 3rd alternative is of course the colonization of space. The most interesting aspect of the book is that he claims everything he writes is feasible with knowledge and technology that already existed in the late 70s. In short he calls for the establishment of large human habitats in the Earth-Moon system, located at stable Lagrange points ("parking spots" in space where gravity from different spatial bodies cancel each other out). In particular he developed the concept of what's known today as the "O'Neill cylinder" which he says "could support quite easily a population of ten million people, growing its food in agricultural cylinders near but outside the main habitat". Energy-wise, it'd simply make use of solar energy via a system of mirrors. As he describes it: "the concentration of the unvarying, intense sunlight of space by very lightweight, inexpensive mirrors can provide all the energy that industry will ever need [...] at a fraction of a cent per kilowatt-hour". He envisages building these habitats with material from the moon, shot into space via "mass drivers", a form of electromagnetic catapult. Also "the habitats would have artificial gravity similar as that of earth by rotating about twenty-eight times an hour”, but he also envisages low-gravity areas, especially for recreational activities such as swimming pools or dancing representations. To trade with earth, he develops the idea of beaming solar power back to earth via "microwave from solar power stations in orbit". As he describes it "the microwave beam would arrive at Earth with a beam width of about seven kilometers. Its intensity would be modest, less than half that of sunlight. In contrast to sunlight, though, it would be there all the time, even at night or in clouds or rain, and it would be in a form ready for conversion to DC current with a loss of only 10 percent. The areas receiving these beams’ output on Earth would be fenced, and outside the fence the intensity of microwave radiation would be no higher than outside a microwave oven with the door closed. He estimates that if "Satellite Solar Power Stations (SSPS) were to become the sole source of electric energy in the United States in the year 2000, the land area necessary for the SSPS antennas would still be only 0.2 percent of that of the continental United States". In short, the establishment of space colonies could lead to the fulfillment of a good share of Earth's energy needs. Last but not least he describes life in space habitats as better than that of earth, largely thanks to the level of control we'd have over the environment (total climate control which would enable an abundance of food and no natural disaster) as well as unlimited cheap energy. To conclude, Chas Freeman typically really knows his stuff when it comes to China and he’s very intellectually honest (a rare trait among US officials) so I have no doubt he tells the truth when he says the Chinese told him that was the vision. And China famously thinks very big and very long term so it would be quite like them to go for something like this. There are also quite a few tangible signs that China is working towards that vision. See for instance this November 2022 news where “China’s space station will join a project to collect solar power from space and send it to Earth in a high-energy microwave beam”: That’s exactly O’Neill’s vision! Or check this October 2022 news that says China is developing new "electromagnetic sledges" that can propel a carriage weighing a few tonnes to a record speed, with a key application for this being “aerospace”: Remember: O’Neill’s vision is to build his habitats with material from the moon, shot into space via "mass drivers", a form of electromagnetic catapult. So there you go… Or also the fact that the Chinese will build, together with the Russians, a moon base - planned for 2028 - powered by a “space nuclear reactor” that’s already been developed (on Earth) and has passed review by China’s Ministry of Science: The space nuclear reactor can generate 1MW of electricity, enough to power 10 International Space Stations. Enough power, maybe, to undertake mining activity and power an electromagnetic catapult… After visions change, the world changes, so it’s also possible that China’s view on what they want to do has evolved. In any case, Chas Freeman is right that China’s motivation for all its initiatives in space can’t just be to “boldly explore where no-one has been before”, they have to be working towards something. And Freeman is also absolutely right to lament that the U.S. decided to ban any cooperation in space with the Chinese. Those endeavors are something that could have been jointly developed as a multilateral effort to unite us all as a species… Instead China is now forced to go at it alone with Russia and we face a future where our petty divisions on Earth will be carried with us to space…

Arnaud Bertrand

265,181 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

SpaceX has officially acquired xAI and this is a HUGE deal, probably bigger than most people realize. SpaceX + xAI together are about to build a single, vertically integrated engine that connects AI, rockets, space based internet, and real time information all into one unified system. At the core of this announcement is the fact that AI can’t scale forever on Earth. Think about it. Data centers are already running into hard limits with power, cooling, land, and environmental cost. On top of this, global AI electricity demand is exploding, and doing all of this on the ground just doesn’t scale long term. Therefore Space changes this. In orbit, you can get things like near-constant solar power, you don’t have cooling problems, there’s minimal land/environmental impact, and you can build systems that can run continuously with minimal maintenance. This is why space-based AI is actually very practical and there’s only one company that can do it, which is SpaceX! The scale that SpaceX is aiming for is pretty wild. Elon is talking about 1/ 1 million satellites acting as orbital data centers, and 2/ Launching ~1 million tons of satellites per year Which means 3/ At 100 kW per ton, that’s 100 gigawatts of AI compute every year 4/ And that can scale to 1 terawatt per year. FYI, adding 100 GW of new compute capacity annually in space would be like building out roughly 20-25% of the USA’s total average electricity demand every single year. And scaling to 1 TW/year would exceed the nation’s entire power usage, ALL without burdening Earth’s grids! Bro… this is next level… I repeat, as of today, SpaceX is the ONLY company positioned to do this, especially with Starship - the largest flying vehicle ever. In the future, Elon’s saying the team is going to have Starship launch 200 tons at a time, on an HOURLY basis… WTF?! That’s is absolutely mind boggling. In my opinion, whichever company builds the lowest cost AI compute is going to be the first company that defines the next era of AI, which will all be in space… and my $ is that SpaceX is going to be the first one to do it. Then, when you zoom out even further, this will unlock things most people aren’t even thinking about yet today bc it’s too sci-fi. Like, • Powering lunar bases • In-space propellant transfer • Manufacturing in orbit and on the Moon • Deep-space AI infrastructure using massive solar collectors • Self-growing civilizations on the Moon, Mars, and beyond By tapping into space’s unlimited solar energy, this is how we get to a Kardashev-level civilization! So for SpaceX, the faster Starship progresses, there will be massive new revenue streams and will lead in building out space-based AI infrastructures. For xAI, AI scales without ruining Earth, deeply integrated with everything SpaceX is building, further understanding the universe. For us humans, AI will grow without destroying the planet, and there’s a real path to becoming multi-planetary. I believe SpaceX acquiring xAI is officially the blueprint for where AI, energy, and humanity are headed. Congratulations to everyone, this is such an exciting time to be alive!
1:14

SpaceX has officially acquired xAI and this is a HUGE deal, probably bigger than most people realize. SpaceX + xAI together are about to build a single, vertically integrated engine that connects AI, rockets, space based internet, and real time information all into one unified system. At the core of this announcement is the fact that AI can’t scale forever on Earth. Think about it. Data centers are already running into hard limits with power, cooling, land, and environmental cost. On top of this, global AI electricity demand is exploding, and doing all of this on the ground just doesn’t scale long term. Therefore Space changes this. In orbit, you can get things like near-constant solar power, you don’t have cooling problems, there’s minimal land/environmental impact, and you can build systems that can run continuously with minimal maintenance. This is why space-based AI is actually very practical and there’s only one company that can do it, which is SpaceX! The scale that SpaceX is aiming for is pretty wild. Elon is talking about 1/ 1 million satellites acting as orbital data centers, and 2/ Launching ~1 million tons of satellites per year Which means 3/ At 100 kW per ton, that’s 100 gigawatts of AI compute every year 4/ And that can scale to 1 terawatt per year. FYI, adding 100 GW of new compute capacity annually in space would be like building out roughly 20-25% of the USA’s total average electricity demand every single year. And scaling to 1 TW/year would exceed the nation’s entire power usage, ALL without burdening Earth’s grids! Bro… this is next level… I repeat, as of today, SpaceX is the ONLY company positioned to do this, especially with Starship - the largest flying vehicle ever. In the future, Elon’s saying the team is going to have Starship launch 200 tons at a time, on an HOURLY basis… WTF?! That’s is absolutely mind boggling. In my opinion, whichever company builds the lowest cost AI compute is going to be the first company that defines the next era of AI, which will all be in space… and my $ is that SpaceX is going to be the first one to do it. Then, when you zoom out even further, this will unlock things most people aren’t even thinking about yet today bc it’s too sci-fi. Like, • Powering lunar bases • In-space propellant transfer • Manufacturing in orbit and on the Moon • Deep-space AI infrastructure using massive solar collectors • Self-growing civilizations on the Moon, Mars, and beyond By tapping into space’s unlimited solar energy, this is how we get to a Kardashev-level civilization! So for SpaceX, the faster Starship progresses, there will be massive new revenue streams and will lead in building out space-based AI infrastructures. For xAI, AI scales without ruining Earth, deeply integrated with everything SpaceX is building, further understanding the universe. For us humans, AI will grow without destroying the planet, and there’s a real path to becoming multi-planetary. I believe SpaceX acquiring xAI is officially the blueprint for where AI, energy, and humanity are headed. Congratulations to everyone, this is such an exciting time to be alive!

Teslaconomics

148,999 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

THE SOLAR SYSTEM IS OFFICIALLY A HARDWARE STORE: DISMANTLING THE PLANETS TO POWER THE FUTURE The conversation about Dyson Swarms has shifted from science fiction to a logistical reality of "when," not "if". While covering the sun in a solid shell is a structural nightmare, a Dyson Swarm, a network of independent solar collectors, is the pragmatic path to a Type II civilization. Elon accelerated this timeline, suggesting Starship could deploy solar harvesting satellites delivering 100GW per year to Earth orbit within the next four to five years. But if we are talking about a true, star encompassing swarm, the 50 year sprint begins with Mercury as the ultimate sacrificial planet. It is metal rich and sits at the perfect distance from the sun to minimize energy costs for launch. Automated robots would mine Mercury’s crust, refine materials on site, and launch solar panels into a statite orbit using radiation pressure to maintain position. Disassembling just half of Mercury provides enough material for a swarm capturing a billion times more energy than Earth currently receives. Asteroids are the "fantastic food source" for this construction because they are a non starter for gravity wells. Mining an asteroid like 16 Psyche is infinitely more efficient than fighting the gravity of a planet like Jupiter. Most asteroids are already sorted into carbonaceous fuel or nickel iron kits, making them perfect modular factories for solar panels. While we harvest these dead rocks and the asteroid belt, habitable candidates like Mars will be left untouched. Source: Moonshots Peter H. Diamandis, MD
0:54

THE SOLAR SYSTEM IS OFFICIALLY A HARDWARE STORE: DISMANTLING THE PLANETS TO POWER THE FUTURE The conversation about Dyson Swarms has shifted from science fiction to a logistical reality of "when," not "if". While covering the sun in a solid shell is a structural nightmare, a Dyson Swarm, a network of independent solar collectors, is the pragmatic path to a Type II civilization. Elon accelerated this timeline, suggesting Starship could deploy solar harvesting satellites delivering 100GW per year to Earth orbit within the next four to five years. But if we are talking about a true, star encompassing swarm, the 50 year sprint begins with Mercury as the ultimate sacrificial planet. It is metal rich and sits at the perfect distance from the sun to minimize energy costs for launch. Automated robots would mine Mercury’s crust, refine materials on site, and launch solar panels into a statite orbit using radiation pressure to maintain position. Disassembling just half of Mercury provides enough material for a swarm capturing a billion times more energy than Earth currently receives. Asteroids are the "fantastic food source" for this construction because they are a non starter for gravity wells. Mining an asteroid like 16 Psyche is infinitely more efficient than fighting the gravity of a planet like Jupiter. Most asteroids are already sorted into carbonaceous fuel or nickel iron kits, making them perfect modular factories for solar panels. While we harvest these dead rocks and the asteroid belt, habitable candidates like Mars will be left untouched. Source: Moonshots Peter H. Diamandis, MD

Mario Nawfal

20,424 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

This is a repeat post after many people asked for details again. A solar expert reached out privately and advised me to remove the electric geysers from my main solar system. He said the solar batteries were doing too many cycles because they were powering the geysers, and that this would shorten their lifespan. His advice was that I should remove the geysers from the battery load if I wanted the batteries to last the full period they are built for. I took that advice seriously. I then asked my plumber, Shanil +27 (76) 890-5582, who owns Metro Plumbers, to guide me on where to get high-quality solar geysers in Johannesburg so that I could replace the electric ones. Shanil told me about a technology called the Elon Smart Water system. He explained that it is much cheaper than buying completely new solar geysers. Instead of replacing the electric geyser, you simply fit the Elon unit, which comes with its own solar panels, onto your existing electric geyser. That is what I did. I have removed all four electric geysers from the home solar system. Each of them was converted using the Elon Smart Water technology. They are now powered by their own dedicated solar panels. The four geysers are running on a total of thirteen panels. So what this means is that I rarely use City Power, because in the past, when it was cloudy for three or four days, I would return to the grid to assist the batteries. This was happening because the batteries were carrying a heavy load that included four geysers. If I had gone for top quality geysers that are exclusively solar, I would have paid between R25,000 and R30,000 per geyser. That would have come to around R120,000 for four geysers. Of course, there are cheaper solar geysers available, but they are cheaper for a reason. So, in essence, I saved half the amount I would have paid for the geysers had I chosen top quality solar geysers. If you are in Johannesburg and interested, Shanil's number is +27 (76) 890-5582. He can do the work for you. The units and their panels cost R60,000 for four geysers from Plumbing Supplies Sanitaryware Centre in Woodmead. I have had the system in place for ten months now, and it is working very well. I deliberately allowed all the geysers to continue heating so that I could test whether everything was functioning correctly, and the water is as hot as it should be. So that is the story. I thought I should share it with those who might want to reduce their bills since folks keep inboxing for details from the original post. P/S The other interesting feature of this system is that I can control it from my phone. If it is very cloudy and the water is not as hot as I want it to be, I can simply go onto the app and instruct that particular geyser to draw from the grid. Unlike my previous setup, where I had to switch the whole home solar system onto the grid, each individual geyser can now independently switch to grid power and heat the water to a temperature I have set. Once the water reaches that set temperature, it automatically disconnects. I have only done this once in ten months, when I had a house full of guests. Out of the four geysers, if one is in a bedroom that is not being used, I can switch it off completely from my phone so that it is not heating water unnecessarily. This gives you control, flexibility, and saves a great deal of money in the long run. You can read more about this technology here: Once again, the fitter is Shanil and his telephone number is +27 (76) 890-5582. You can buy the equipment from Plumbing Supplies Sanitaryware Centre in Woodmead.
0:23

This is a repeat post after many people asked for details again. A solar expert reached out privately and advised me to remove the electric geysers from my main solar system. He said the solar batteries were doing too many cycles because they were powering the geysers, and that this would shorten their lifespan. His advice was that I should remove the geysers from the battery load if I wanted the batteries to last the full period they are built for. I took that advice seriously. I then asked my plumber, Shanil +27 (76) 890-5582, who owns Metro Plumbers, to guide me on where to get high-quality solar geysers in Johannesburg so that I could replace the electric ones. Shanil told me about a technology called the Elon Smart Water system. He explained that it is much cheaper than buying completely new solar geysers. Instead of replacing the electric geyser, you simply fit the Elon unit, which comes with its own solar panels, onto your existing electric geyser. That is what I did. I have removed all four electric geysers from the home solar system. Each of them was converted using the Elon Smart Water technology. They are now powered by their own dedicated solar panels. The four geysers are running on a total of thirteen panels. So what this means is that I rarely use City Power, because in the past, when it was cloudy for three or four days, I would return to the grid to assist the batteries. This was happening because the batteries were carrying a heavy load that included four geysers. If I had gone for top quality geysers that are exclusively solar, I would have paid between R25,000 and R30,000 per geyser. That would have come to around R120,000 for four geysers. Of course, there are cheaper solar geysers available, but they are cheaper for a reason. So, in essence, I saved half the amount I would have paid for the geysers had I chosen top quality solar geysers. If you are in Johannesburg and interested, Shanil's number is +27 (76) 890-5582. He can do the work for you. The units and their panels cost R60,000 for four geysers from Plumbing Supplies Sanitaryware Centre in Woodmead. I have had the system in place for ten months now, and it is working very well. I deliberately allowed all the geysers to continue heating so that I could test whether everything was functioning correctly, and the water is as hot as it should be. So that is the story. I thought I should share it with those who might want to reduce their bills since folks keep inboxing for details from the original post. P/S The other interesting feature of this system is that I can control it from my phone. If it is very cloudy and the water is not as hot as I want it to be, I can simply go onto the app and instruct that particular geyser to draw from the grid. Unlike my previous setup, where I had to switch the whole home solar system onto the grid, each individual geyser can now independently switch to grid power and heat the water to a temperature I have set. Once the water reaches that set temperature, it automatically disconnects. I have only done this once in ten months, when I had a house full of guests. Out of the four geysers, if one is in a bedroom that is not being used, I can switch it off completely from my phone so that it is not heating water unnecessarily. This gives you control, flexibility, and saves a great deal of money in the long run. You can read more about this technology here: Once again, the fitter is Shanil and his telephone number is +27 (76) 890-5582. You can buy the equipment from Plumbing Supplies Sanitaryware Centre in Woodmead.

Hopewell Chin’ono

32,776 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

Elon Musk: Everything is solar power. The rest is noise. “The sun is about 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter's about 0.1% and everything else is in the remaining 0.1%, and we are much less than 0.1%. So, if you burnt all of the mass of the solar system, then the total energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100%. If you just burnt Earth, the whole planet, and burnt Jupiter, which is very big and quite challenging to burn, turn Jupiter into a thermonuclear reactor, the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system and everything else is in the miscellaneous category. Basically, no matter what you do, total energy produced in our solar system rounds up to 100% from the sun. You could even throw another Jupiter in, so we're going to snag a Jupiter from somewhere else, you could teleport two more Jupiters into our solar system, burn them, and the sun would still round up to 100%. As long as you're at 99.6%, you're still rounding up to 100%. Maybe that gives some perspective of why solar is really the thing that matters. And, as soon as you start thinking about things at a grander scale, like Kardashev Scale 2 civilizations, it becomes very, very obvious. I'm not saying anything that's new, by the way. Anyone who studies physics has known this for a very long time. In fact, Kardashev, a Russian physicist who came up with this idea, I think, in the 1960s, just as a way to classify civilizations, where Kardashev Scale 1 would be, you've harnessed most of the energy of the planet, Kardashev Scale 2, you've harnessed most of the energy of your sun, Kardashev 3, you've harnessed most of the energy of a galaxy. Now we're only about 1% or a few percent of Kardashev Scale 1 right now, optimistically. But as soon as you go to Kardashev Scale 2, where you're talking about the power of the sun, then you're really just saying everything is solar power and the rest is in the noise. Like, the sun produces about a billion times, or call it well over a billion times more energy than everything on Earth combined.” All-In Podcast, October 31, 2025
2:11

Elon Musk: Everything is solar power. The rest is noise. “The sun is about 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter's about 0.1% and everything else is in the remaining 0.1%, and we are much less than 0.1%. So, if you burnt all of the mass of the solar system, then the total energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100%. If you just burnt Earth, the whole planet, and burnt Jupiter, which is very big and quite challenging to burn, turn Jupiter into a thermonuclear reactor, the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system and everything else is in the miscellaneous category. Basically, no matter what you do, total energy produced in our solar system rounds up to 100% from the sun. You could even throw another Jupiter in, so we're going to snag a Jupiter from somewhere else, you could teleport two more Jupiters into our solar system, burn them, and the sun would still round up to 100%. As long as you're at 99.6%, you're still rounding up to 100%. Maybe that gives some perspective of why solar is really the thing that matters. And, as soon as you start thinking about things at a grander scale, like Kardashev Scale 2 civilizations, it becomes very, very obvious. I'm not saying anything that's new, by the way. Anyone who studies physics has known this for a very long time. In fact, Kardashev, a Russian physicist who came up with this idea, I think, in the 1960s, just as a way to classify civilizations, where Kardashev Scale 1 would be, you've harnessed most of the energy of the planet, Kardashev Scale 2, you've harnessed most of the energy of your sun, Kardashev 3, you've harnessed most of the energy of a galaxy. Now we're only about 1% or a few percent of Kardashev Scale 1 right now, optimistically. But as soon as you go to Kardashev Scale 2, where you're talking about the power of the sun, then you're really just saying everything is solar power and the rest is in the noise. Like, the sun produces about a billion times, or call it well over a billion times more energy than everything on Earth combined.” All-In Podcast, October 31, 2025

ELON CLIPS

15,113,895 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

SpaceX is about to shatter the largest IPO record in history. Not by a little. By more than double. The previous record was $29 billion. SpaceX is targeting $75 billion. Two months ago the number was $50 billion. Last week it was $70 billion. Now $75 billion. The filing has not even happened yet. Every time the market recalculates what SpaceX actually is, the answer gets bigger. Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan. Bank of America. Morgan Stanley. All lined up as underwriters. Target date: mid-June 2026. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make SpaceX larger than Meta. Larger than Tesla. Larger than every company on Earth except five. This is not some startup bleeding cash and calling it strategy. SpaceX made $8 billion in profit last year on $16 billion in revenue. They do not need the money. They are raising it because what comes next costs more than profit can fund at the speed they intend to move. Musk: “There just is no way to do a terawatt per year on Earth.” He ran the math on stage with Jensen Huang. Three hundred gigawatts of AI compute per year would consume two-thirds of all US electricity production. Not total energy. Just electricity. And three hundred gigawatts is not even the target. A terawatt is. More than three times that. Building enough power plants is not difficult. It is not expensive. It is physically impossible. Musk: “You have to do that in space.” Not should. Not could. Have to. Earth does not have the power. Cannot build it fast enough. Cannot cool the hardware. Not within a decade. Not at all. The bottleneck is not silicon. Not software. Not data. It is the planet itself. Musk: “You don’t actually need batteries because it’s always sunny in space. And the solar panels become cheaper because you don’t need glass or framing. And the cooling is just radiative.” No batteries. No night cycle. No weather. Just uninterrupted solar hitting bare panels in a vacuum. Heat dissipates on its own. Huang: “Each one of these GB300 racks is two tons. 1.95 of it is probably for cooling.” Ninety-seven percent of the weight of a supercomputer rack exists to keep it from overheating. Move it to space and that weight vanishes. The machine shrinks to something small enough to launch by the thousands. Running on free energy. Cooled by nothing. Musk: “I think even perhaps in the four or five year time frame, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites.” Not fifty years. Not twenty. Five. The cheapest AI compute on Earth will not be on Earth. It will be in orbit. And only one company can put it there at the cost and cadence required. That is what the market is pricing. Not a rocket company. The only organization on Earth capable of moving intelligence infrastructure off of it. Huang heard the pitch. The math. The timeline. Huang: “That’s the dream.” Musk: “Yes.” A trillion watts of compute. Powered by the Sun. Cooled by space. Launched by SpaceX. Every company building AI on the ground is building under the same ceiling. The atmosphere.
2:27

SpaceX is about to shatter the largest IPO record in history. Not by a little. By more than double. The previous record was $29 billion. SpaceX is targeting $75 billion. Two months ago the number was $50 billion. Last week it was $70 billion. Now $75 billion. The filing has not even happened yet. Every time the market recalculates what SpaceX actually is, the answer gets bigger. Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan. Bank of America. Morgan Stanley. All lined up as underwriters. Target date: mid-June 2026. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make SpaceX larger than Meta. Larger than Tesla. Larger than every company on Earth except five. This is not some startup bleeding cash and calling it strategy. SpaceX made $8 billion in profit last year on $16 billion in revenue. They do not need the money. They are raising it because what comes next costs more than profit can fund at the speed they intend to move. Musk: “There just is no way to do a terawatt per year on Earth.” He ran the math on stage with Jensen Huang. Three hundred gigawatts of AI compute per year would consume two-thirds of all US electricity production. Not total energy. Just electricity. And three hundred gigawatts is not even the target. A terawatt is. More than three times that. Building enough power plants is not difficult. It is not expensive. It is physically impossible. Musk: “You have to do that in space.” Not should. Not could. Have to. Earth does not have the power. Cannot build it fast enough. Cannot cool the hardware. Not within a decade. Not at all. The bottleneck is not silicon. Not software. Not data. It is the planet itself. Musk: “You don’t actually need batteries because it’s always sunny in space. And the solar panels become cheaper because you don’t need glass or framing. And the cooling is just radiative.” No batteries. No night cycle. No weather. Just uninterrupted solar hitting bare panels in a vacuum. Heat dissipates on its own. Huang: “Each one of these GB300 racks is two tons. 1.95 of it is probably for cooling.” Ninety-seven percent of the weight of a supercomputer rack exists to keep it from overheating. Move it to space and that weight vanishes. The machine shrinks to something small enough to launch by the thousands. Running on free energy. Cooled by nothing. Musk: “I think even perhaps in the four or five year time frame, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites.” Not fifty years. Not twenty. Five. The cheapest AI compute on Earth will not be on Earth. It will be in orbit. And only one company can put it there at the cost and cadence required. That is what the market is pricing. Not a rocket company. The only organization on Earth capable of moving intelligence infrastructure off of it. Huang heard the pitch. The math. The timeline. Huang: “That’s the dream.” Musk: “Yes.” A trillion watts of compute. Powered by the Sun. Cooled by space. Launched by SpaceX. Every company building AI on the ground is building under the same ceiling. The atmosphere.

Dustin

44,710 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Elon Musk: Why a 1 Terawatt AI is impossible on Earth?? "My estimate is that the cost-effectiveness of AI in space will be overwhelmingly better than AI on the ground. So, long before you exhaust potential energy sources on Earth, meaning perhaps in the four or five-year timeframe, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites. I'd say not more than five years from now Just look at the supercomputers we're building together. Let's say each rack is two tons; out of that two tons, 1.95 of it is probably for cooling. Just imagine how tiny that little supercomputer is Electricity generation is already becoming a challenge. If you start doing any kind of scaling for both electricity generation and cooling, you realize space is incredibly compelling Let's say you wanted to do 200 or 300 gigawatts per year of AI compute. It's very difficult to do that on Earth. The US average electricity usage, last time I checked, was around 460 gigawatts per year. So, if you're doing 300 gigawatts a year, that would be like two-thirds of US electricity production per year. There's no way you're building power plants at that level And then if you take it up to a Terawatt per year, impossible. You have to do that in space In space, you've got continuous solar. You don't need batteries because it's always sunny. The solar panels actually become cheaper because you don't need glass or framing, and the cooling is just radiative"
2:27

Elon Musk: Why a 1 Terawatt AI is impossible on Earth?? "My estimate is that the cost-effectiveness of AI in space will be overwhelmingly better than AI on the ground. So, long before you exhaust potential energy sources on Earth, meaning perhaps in the four or five-year timeframe, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites. I'd say not more than five years from now Just look at the supercomputers we're building together. Let's say each rack is two tons; out of that two tons, 1.95 of it is probably for cooling. Just imagine how tiny that little supercomputer is Electricity generation is already becoming a challenge. If you start doing any kind of scaling for both electricity generation and cooling, you realize space is incredibly compelling Let's say you wanted to do 200 or 300 gigawatts per year of AI compute. It's very difficult to do that on Earth. The US average electricity usage, last time I checked, was around 460 gigawatts per year. So, if you're doing 300 gigawatts a year, that would be like two-thirds of US electricity production per year. There's no way you're building power plants at that level And then if you take it up to a Terawatt per year, impossible. You have to do that in space In space, you've got continuous solar. You don't need batteries because it's always sunny. The solar panels actually become cheaper because you don't need glass or framing, and the cooling is just radiative"

X Freeze

446,573 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Canadian Solar [Full Investment Thesis]: Everything You Need to Know About $CSIQ “THE GREAT SOLAR RECKONING” ☀️ 🔋$CSIQ became my largest position earlier this year, after I had been studying the company since 2023. Here is my 250-page, ~three-hour presentation on Canadian Solar. I made this video to compress the 1,000+ hours of work already done here, hopefully helping speed up the learning curve for anyone interested.☀️🔋 This is not meant to be flawless. It is meant to be done. I believe $CSIQ is entering one of the most promising periods in its history. With $15B+ in total assets, three multi-billion-dollar businesses spanning solar manufacturing, storage manufacturing, and project development across six continents, and a mere ~$1B market capitalization, Canadian Solar is poised to be one of the top energy performers in 2026. The market has left this company for dead. But underneath the surface, the foundations of the business have been getting stronger: - While the solar industry wrongly spent on building overcapacity, Canadian Solar was one of the few companies slowing down and investing upstream into its project development arm. - While everyone looked to globalize supply chains, Canadian Solar has been building its manufacturing presence in the U.S. since 2023. - While much of the industry was still debating battery storage, Canadian Solar was already building gigawatt-scale projects in 2021. Today, it is reaping the benefits of having been a first mover. This is the story of a company that, despite operating in a ruthless and complicated industry, has consistently been deliberate and rational in its capital allocation decisions. It remains founder-led, with the founder still owning ~20% of the company. Shareholder value creation will always be top of mind, regardless of the market’s current irrationality. The solar industry, like every commodity industry, is deeply cyclical. I am convinced we have already seen the worst of it, and that better profitability is ahead for equipment manufacturers. This is already starting to show in CSI Solar’s Q1 2026 results, with $100M+ in operating profit for the quarter. The supply-demand imbalance for electricity should result in excess profitability. $CSIQ is about to make the undeniable obvious: Canadian Solar is a Western (actually, global) leader in renewable energy. Not middle of the pack. At the very top. They produce ~25 GW of solar modules per year and ~15 GWh of storage per year. For reference, the entire U.S. added roughly 60 GW of total generation capacity in 2025. And they do not only manufacture. They also develop, engineer, construct, and operate billions of dollars of energy assets. That creates a powerful learning and feedback loop between manufacturing and operations, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve. Their BESS experience is the clearest example. At first glance, my estimates and projections may look overly optimistic. But I would ask you to take the time to analyze each one individually. I think you will see that even my bull case uses assumptions that many people already treat as base case assumptions for comparable companies such as $FLNC, $TE, $FSLR, $AMRC, $NXT, and others. My base case assumes roughly half the profitability the industry expects from peers, and still results in an ~10x investment opportunity. Not growing into it. Worth that today. Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, questions, and pushback!! ☀️☀️🔋🔋 Timeline CSIQ: 0:00 Introduction 1:38 Executive Summary 11:35 Macro 18:15 Corporate History 21:00 Management & Team 25:10 Solar Industry & Market 42:47 CSI Solar - the $7B solar behemoth $CSIQ owns 57:00 Project Demand - CSI Solar 1:00:05 BESS Subsidiary with Multi-GWh Firm Orders 1:05:35 Project Demand for e-Storage/BESS 1:11:44 Recurrent Energy - The Multi-Billion Renewable Project Developer 1:34:36 US Manufacturing - 10GWs of Capacity and First Ever to Produce Solar Cells Domestically 1:56:15 Competitors 2:19:29 Litigation 2:28:32 Quality 2:30:52 Valuation & Financial Analysis 2:40:40 Conclusion 2:43:15 Miscellaneous Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell $CSIQ or any other security mentioned here. I am not a registered investment advisor (RIA). Always do your own research (DYOR). I and/or accounts under my management or discretion, may currently hold positions in $CSIQ and may purchase or sell shares at any time without further notice. My opinions, price targets, and allocation suggestions are my personal views and can change without prior notice. Investing in stocks involves a significant risk of loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you found this useful, follow me for more deep dives like this. I spend a ridiculous amount of time studying this whole ecosystem. Please like and share this post if you think more people should be aware of how attractive Canadian Solar could be as an investment opportunity.
2:50:23

Canadian Solar [Full Investment Thesis]: Everything You Need to Know About $CSIQ “THE GREAT SOLAR RECKONING” ☀️ 🔋$CSIQ became my largest position earlier this year, after I had been studying the company since 2023. Here is my 250-page, ~three-hour presentation on Canadian Solar. I made this video to compress the 1,000+ hours of work already done here, hopefully helping speed up the learning curve for anyone interested.☀️🔋 This is not meant to be flawless. It is meant to be done. I believe $CSIQ is entering one of the most promising periods in its history. With $15B+ in total assets, three multi-billion-dollar businesses spanning solar manufacturing, storage manufacturing, and project development across six continents, and a mere ~$1B market capitalization, Canadian Solar is poised to be one of the top energy performers in 2026. The market has left this company for dead. But underneath the surface, the foundations of the business have been getting stronger: - While the solar industry wrongly spent on building overcapacity, Canadian Solar was one of the few companies slowing down and investing upstream into its project development arm. - While everyone looked to globalize supply chains, Canadian Solar has been building its manufacturing presence in the U.S. since 2023. - While much of the industry was still debating battery storage, Canadian Solar was already building gigawatt-scale projects in 2021. Today, it is reaping the benefits of having been a first mover. This is the story of a company that, despite operating in a ruthless and complicated industry, has consistently been deliberate and rational in its capital allocation decisions. It remains founder-led, with the founder still owning ~20% of the company. Shareholder value creation will always be top of mind, regardless of the market’s current irrationality. The solar industry, like every commodity industry, is deeply cyclical. I am convinced we have already seen the worst of it, and that better profitability is ahead for equipment manufacturers. This is already starting to show in CSI Solar’s Q1 2026 results, with $100M+ in operating profit for the quarter. The supply-demand imbalance for electricity should result in excess profitability. $CSIQ is about to make the undeniable obvious: Canadian Solar is a Western (actually, global) leader in renewable energy. Not middle of the pack. At the very top. They produce ~25 GW of solar modules per year and ~15 GWh of storage per year. For reference, the entire U.S. added roughly 60 GW of total generation capacity in 2025. And they do not only manufacture. They also develop, engineer, construct, and operate billions of dollars of energy assets. That creates a powerful learning and feedback loop between manufacturing and operations, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve. Their BESS experience is the clearest example. At first glance, my estimates and projections may look overly optimistic. But I would ask you to take the time to analyze each one individually. I think you will see that even my bull case uses assumptions that many people already treat as base case assumptions for comparable companies such as $FLNC, $TE, $FSLR, $AMRC, $NXT, and others. My base case assumes roughly half the profitability the industry expects from peers, and still results in an ~10x investment opportunity. Not growing into it. Worth that today. Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, questions, and pushback!! ☀️☀️🔋🔋 Timeline CSIQ: 0:00 Introduction 1:38 Executive Summary 11:35 Macro 18:15 Corporate History 21:00 Management & Team 25:10 Solar Industry & Market 42:47 CSI Solar - the $7B solar behemoth $CSIQ owns 57:00 Project Demand - CSI Solar 1:00:05 BESS Subsidiary with Multi-GWh Firm Orders 1:05:35 Project Demand for e-Storage/BESS 1:11:44 Recurrent Energy - The Multi-Billion Renewable Project Developer 1:34:36 US Manufacturing - 10GWs of Capacity and First Ever to Produce Solar Cells Domestically 1:56:15 Competitors 2:19:29 Litigation 2:28:32 Quality 2:30:52 Valuation & Financial Analysis 2:40:40 Conclusion 2:43:15 Miscellaneous Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell $CSIQ or any other security mentioned here. I am not a registered investment advisor (RIA). Always do your own research (DYOR). I and/or accounts under my management or discretion, may currently hold positions in $CSIQ and may purchase or sell shares at any time without further notice. My opinions, price targets, and allocation suggestions are my personal views and can change without prior notice. Investing in stocks involves a significant risk of loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you found this useful, follow me for more deep dives like this. I spend a ridiculous amount of time studying this whole ecosystem. Please like and share this post if you think more people should be aware of how attractive Canadian Solar could be as an investment opportunity.

Lucas Sacerdote🔋

100,810 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

A startup in Wales is manufacturing diamonds for semiconductors in space. Yep… for real. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🔥🇪🇺 To repeat this and to make this clear: Space Forge is literally building forges in space. And if their vision works – and trust me this is not hyperbole – this will literally kickstart a whole new industry for humanity: Manufacturing in Space! 🧑‍🚀 Their mission? Grow ultra-pure crystals in orbit. Each worth a fortune. Those crystals the foundation for chips of countless future technologies. Chips that power everything from 5G networks, to EVs, to future quantum systems. Ok what the hell: Why satellites? The problem: On Earth, gravity frequently ruins the crystals while growing. Eg convection introduces tiny defects into every crystal we grow. In orbit, with less effective gravity, those defects disappear. The result: dramatically more efficient, more powerful and better functioning semiconductors. Launching an actual satellite factory sounds completely insane, but exactly the kind of level of ambition we need here in Europe. 🔥 So naturally, I flew to Wales to find out how it works. We were the first to tour their new facility – and you are the first to see it! In the video we will be touring their clean rooms, see crystals grown, stand in their mission control, and learn how the two founders started this company after three pints in a pub. I am not overhyping this when i say: Space Forge is literally the spearhead of a whole new industry for humanity… This is the kind of level of WTH-ness we need here in Europe. 🙏❤️ Shoutout and thanks to Joshua, their founder, and his team for having us around! Full video on our Youtube and in the replies. Appreciate your like & RT🙏
0:54

A startup in Wales is manufacturing diamonds for semiconductors in space. Yep… for real. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🔥🇪🇺 To repeat this and to make this clear: Space Forge is literally building forges in space. And if their vision works – and trust me this is not hyperbole – this will literally kickstart a whole new industry for humanity: Manufacturing in Space! 🧑‍🚀 Their mission? Grow ultra-pure crystals in orbit. Each worth a fortune. Those crystals the foundation for chips of countless future technologies. Chips that power everything from 5G networks, to EVs, to future quantum systems. Ok what the hell: Why satellites? The problem: On Earth, gravity frequently ruins the crystals while growing. Eg convection introduces tiny defects into every crystal we grow. In orbit, with less effective gravity, those defects disappear. The result: dramatically more efficient, more powerful and better functioning semiconductors. Launching an actual satellite factory sounds completely insane, but exactly the kind of level of ambition we need here in Europe. 🔥 So naturally, I flew to Wales to find out how it works. We were the first to tour their new facility – and you are the first to see it! In the video we will be touring their clean rooms, see crystals grown, stand in their mission control, and learn how the two founders started this company after three pints in a pub. I am not overhyping this when i say: Space Forge is literally the spearhead of a whole new industry for humanity… This is the kind of level of WTH-ness we need here in Europe. 🙏❤️ Shoutout and thanks to Joshua, their founder, and his team for having us around! Full video on our Youtube and in the replies. Appreciate your like & RT🙏

Andreas Klinger 🦾

51,008 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

The first question I asked Elon Musk: What’s the point of sending GPUs into space? The whole idea behind orbital data centers is that if the launch costs continue to drop, it will become cheaper to put GPUs in orbit than to build power plants on Earth. The problem with this argument is that energy is only about 15% of a datacenter’s lifetime cost. The chips themselves are around 70%. And you still have to launch those to space! Elon kept returning to one point over and over again: It will simply not be physically possible to scale power production to the scale needed for AI on Earth. He kept pointing out the bottlenecks we’ve already run into on Earth: You can’t plug into the utilities - the interconnect queues are too long. You can’t do behind-the-meter natural gas and generate power yourself - lead times for turbines stretch past 2030. You can’t do solar on Earth, because of permits, and because of the tariffs. For it to make economical sense to shift compute to space, all of the following things would need to be true: - Power generation on Earth hits a ceiling, or AI demand outstrips every terrestrial option (for context, 1 TW of solar power is only 1% of the land area of the US, and AI currently only uses about 20 GW globally). - Chip production scales faster than power generation (because Elon builds TeraFab). It would be surprising if building and placing solar panels turned out to be harder than scaling semiconductor manufacturing. - Starship reaches thousands of launches per year. In that world, Elon wins the AI race outright. SpaceX is the only entity that can launch at that scale. xAI would have unlimited power. Everyone else will be stuck fighting over grid interconnects and turbine orders. And if those 3 conditions aren’t met? Well, on Earth, xAI is just gonna be one of the pack anyways - and there’s no market for the 4th best AI model. Elon’s comparative advantage was never going to be navigating utility interconnect queues or filing permits faster than Google. His advantage is SpaceX. So why not just bet on the world where SpaceX becomes the kingmaker? I asked Elon what that world looks like. 100 GW = 10,000 starship launches, and he wants to do more than that every year by 2030. That’s one starship launch every hour.
5:33

The first question I asked Elon Musk: What’s the point of sending GPUs into space? The whole idea behind orbital data centers is that if the launch costs continue to drop, it will become cheaper to put GPUs in orbit than to build power plants on Earth. The problem with this argument is that energy is only about 15% of a datacenter’s lifetime cost. The chips themselves are around 70%. And you still have to launch those to space! Elon kept returning to one point over and over again: It will simply not be physically possible to scale power production to the scale needed for AI on Earth. He kept pointing out the bottlenecks we’ve already run into on Earth: You can’t plug into the utilities - the interconnect queues are too long. You can’t do behind-the-meter natural gas and generate power yourself - lead times for turbines stretch past 2030. You can’t do solar on Earth, because of permits, and because of the tariffs. For it to make economical sense to shift compute to space, all of the following things would need to be true: - Power generation on Earth hits a ceiling, or AI demand outstrips every terrestrial option (for context, 1 TW of solar power is only 1% of the land area of the US, and AI currently only uses about 20 GW globally). - Chip production scales faster than power generation (because Elon builds TeraFab). It would be surprising if building and placing solar panels turned out to be harder than scaling semiconductor manufacturing. - Starship reaches thousands of launches per year. In that world, Elon wins the AI race outright. SpaceX is the only entity that can launch at that scale. xAI would have unlimited power. Everyone else will be stuck fighting over grid interconnects and turbine orders. And if those 3 conditions aren’t met? Well, on Earth, xAI is just gonna be one of the pack anyways - and there’s no market for the 4th best AI model. Elon’s comparative advantage was never going to be navigating utility interconnect queues or filing permits faster than Google. His advantage is SpaceX. So why not just bet on the world where SpaceX becomes the kingmaker? I asked Elon what that world looks like. 100 GW = 10,000 starship launches, and he wants to do more than that every year by 2030. That’s one starship launch every hour.

Dwarkesh Patel

405,895 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Elon Musk is changing the world SpaceX is making space travel much cheaper by reusing rockets. Launch costs dropped 85% and they now launch over 80% of everything going into orbit Most of SpaceX’s money actually comes from Starlink, their satellite internet service with 10 million customers, not just rocket launches Elon Musk is combining SpaceX with his other companies, xAI, Groq, and X. He’s planning to take it public through a huge IPO The big vision: Build giant AI data centers in space. Why space? - Unlimited cheap solar power from the sun - Very cold temperatures, perfect for cooling computers - No angry neighbors or strict environmental rules This would cost a fortune, so they want to raise money from public investors This in my opinion is the best part, Elon Musk is making sure he stays in control of decisions Musk will have 10x voting power over the whole company If you invest, you’re mostly betting on Elon Musk himself This is exactly what you want. You want Musk making the decisions not being overruled by people with other motives
2:50

Elon Musk is changing the world SpaceX is making space travel much cheaper by reusing rockets. Launch costs dropped 85% and they now launch over 80% of everything going into orbit Most of SpaceX’s money actually comes from Starlink, their satellite internet service with 10 million customers, not just rocket launches Elon Musk is combining SpaceX with his other companies, xAI, Groq, and X. He’s planning to take it public through a huge IPO The big vision: Build giant AI data centers in space. Why space? - Unlimited cheap solar power from the sun - Very cold temperatures, perfect for cooling computers - No angry neighbors or strict environmental rules This would cost a fortune, so they want to raise money from public investors This in my opinion is the best part, Elon Musk is making sure he stays in control of decisions Musk will have 10x voting power over the whole company If you invest, you’re mostly betting on Elon Musk himself This is exactly what you want. You want Musk making the decisions not being overruled by people with other motives

Wall Street Apes

28,675 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

💎Scientists and engineers from the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UK Atomic Energy Authority) and the University of Bristol (University of Bristol) have successfully created the world’s first carbon-14 diamond battery. This new type of battery has the potential to power devices for thousands of years, making it an incredibly long-lasting energy source. The battery leverages the radioactive isotope, carbon-14, known for its use in radiocarbon dating, to produce a diamond battery. Several game-changing applications are possible. Bio-compatible diamond batteries can be used in medical devices like ocular implants, hearing aids, and pacemakers, minimising the need for replacements and distress to patients. Diamond batteries could also be used in extreme environments – both in space and on earth – where it is not practical to replace conventional batteries. The batteries could power active radio frequency (RF) tags where there is a need to identify and track devices either on earth or in space, such as spacecraft or payloads, for decades at a time, thus reducing costs and extending operational lifespan. “Diamond batteries offer a safe, sustainable way to provide continuous microwatt levels of power. They are an emerging technology that use a manufactured diamond to safely encase small amounts of carbon-14,” said Sarah Clark, Director of Tritium Fuel Cycle at UKAEA. The carbon-14 diamond battery works by using the radioactive decay of carbon-14, which has a half-life of 5,700 years, to generate low levels of power. It functions similarly to solar panels, which convert light into electricity, but instead of using light particles (photons), they capture fast-moving electrons from within the diamond structure. Professor Thomas Scott, Professor in Materials at the University of Bristol, said: “Our micropower technology can support a whole range of important applications from space technologies and security devices through to medical implants. We're excited to be able to explore all of these possibilities, working with partners in industry and research, over the next few years.” A team of scientists and engineers from both organisations worked together to build a plasma deposition rig, a specialised apparatus used for growing the diamond at UKAEA’s Culham Campus. This development is the result, in part, of UKAEA’s work on fusion energy. The expertise gained in fusion research is helping to accelerate innovation in related technologies.
4:43

💎Scientists and engineers from the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UK Atomic Energy Authority) and the University of Bristol (University of Bristol) have successfully created the world’s first carbon-14 diamond battery. This new type of battery has the potential to power devices for thousands of years, making it an incredibly long-lasting energy source. The battery leverages the radioactive isotope, carbon-14, known for its use in radiocarbon dating, to produce a diamond battery. Several game-changing applications are possible. Bio-compatible diamond batteries can be used in medical devices like ocular implants, hearing aids, and pacemakers, minimising the need for replacements and distress to patients. Diamond batteries could also be used in extreme environments – both in space and on earth – where it is not practical to replace conventional batteries. The batteries could power active radio frequency (RF) tags where there is a need to identify and track devices either on earth or in space, such as spacecraft or payloads, for decades at a time, thus reducing costs and extending operational lifespan. “Diamond batteries offer a safe, sustainable way to provide continuous microwatt levels of power. They are an emerging technology that use a manufactured diamond to safely encase small amounts of carbon-14,” said Sarah Clark, Director of Tritium Fuel Cycle at UKAEA. The carbon-14 diamond battery works by using the radioactive decay of carbon-14, which has a half-life of 5,700 years, to generate low levels of power. It functions similarly to solar panels, which convert light into electricity, but instead of using light particles (photons), they capture fast-moving electrons from within the diamond structure. Professor Thomas Scott, Professor in Materials at the University of Bristol, said: “Our micropower technology can support a whole range of important applications from space technologies and security devices through to medical implants. We're excited to be able to explore all of these possibilities, working with partners in industry and research, over the next few years.” A team of scientists and engineers from both organisations worked together to build a plasma deposition rig, a specialised apparatus used for growing the diamond at UKAEA’s Culham Campus. This development is the result, in part, of UKAEA’s work on fusion energy. The expertise gained in fusion research is helping to accelerate innovation in related technologies.

UK Atomic Energy Authority

12,493 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

In a newly released technical update, SpaceX's leadership team, which includes communications manager Dan Huot, Director of Satellite Engineering Ian Dahl, and CEO Elon Musk, detailed a highly ambitious infrastructure roadmap to design, manufacture, and operate specialized artificial intelligence computing satellites at scale. Positioned as a major strategic pillar to dramatically elevate civilizational energy and processing capacity on the Kardashev scale, this strategy moves past traditional communications architectures into massive orbital server arrays. Here is the complete breakdown of the core technologies and timelines driving this space-based intelligence revolution: 🛰️ AI1 satellite power and compute capacity Ian Dahl and Elon Musk introduced the baseline performance targets for the first-generation AI1 satellite, explaining how its custom hardware is engineered to operate like an orbital data center server rack. Ian Dahl noted that their direct operational experience with xAI guided them to target a 150-kilowatt peak power capacity. To manage active machine learning workloads continuously, Elon Musk explained that the satellite is optimized to maintain a sustained average compute power envelope of 120 kilowatts, which directly mirrors the real-world performance of a terrestrial NVIDIA server rack. The official presentation slides outline several key operational metrics for this payload configuration: ⚡ The custom architecture delivers a 150 kW peak compute payload. 🔋 The system maintains a 120 kW sustained average compute payload under active workloads. ⚖️ The hardware achieves a highly optimized power-to-weight density of 70 kW per ton. 🔄 The layout features a completely interchangeable compute provider design. "We thought that the right place to start is around the 150 kilowatt peak power level. But as we look at the workloads with our experience with xAI, we see that we can support about 120 kilowatts of average compute. The 150 kilowatt peak power level roughly matches what, say, an NVIDIA GV300 rack would do. A more reasonable operating envelope would be around 120 kilowatts average power, but it can peak up to 150. So it is basically thinking about it as a rack of compute in space." --- 📐 AI1 satellite dimensions and thermal efficiency specs Elon Musk detailed the physical layout of the AI1 satellite, highlighting the massive dimensions required to accommodate its immense power and cooling hardware. He shared specific design criteria, explaining that the engineering relies on a custom 150 kW solar array paired with a high-capacity deployable liquid radiator thermal management system. The technical specifications of this vehicle layout include: 📏 The structural frame features a massive 70-meter wingspan. ↕️ The vehicle spans a total deployed height of 20 meters. ☀️ The onboard solar array delivers an efficiency of 250 W/m² using technology manufactured in Bastrop, Texas. 🌡️ The thermal system utilizes a 110 m² deployable liquid radiator to cleanly dump waste heat. 🔄 The cooling architecture incorporates redundant pumping loops for mission safety. 🛡️ The exterior contains integrated micrometeoroid shielding to protect the fluid lines. 🧭 The double-sided radiators achieve a dissipation rate of 1400 watts per square meter while remaining oriented knife-edge to the sun. "The assumptions here are 250 watts per square meter for the solar array and about 1400 watts per square meter for the radiators. The radiators are double-sided, radiating on both sides, and they're oriented knife-edge to the sun. They have about a 70-meter wingspan, so these are fairly large." --- 🧩 Simplified design architecture built on Starlink V3 tech Elon Musk explained that despite the satellite's imposing size, its internal architecture is fundamentally much simpler than a standard Starlink satellite. Because it lacks heavy phased array and parabolic communications antennas, the entire vehicle layout is completely streamlined around a few essential structural modules: 🎛️ The hardware framework is arranged around a centralized compute module. ☀️ Large deployable solar arrays extend outward to capture orbital energy. 🌡️ A deployable liquid-radiator thermal management system controls active operational temperatures. 🔄 The engineering team heavily leverages the component evolution and manufacturing experience gained from developing the Starlink V3 vehicle platform. "The AI satellite is actually much simpler than a Starlink satellite. A Starlink satellite has gigantic phased array antennas, parabolic antennas, and a lot of laser links, making it much more complicated. An AI satellite is essentially a lot of solar cells, a radiator, and you still need some laser links, but you don't have all of the super complex antennas that you have on a Starlink satellite. A lot of this is technology we've already made for the Starlink V3 satellites." --- 🔌 Interchangeable compute reference designs and high connectivity Elon Musk outlined a modular hardware approach for the satellite's payload, allowing it to house a variety of industry-standard processing units depending on client requirements. This interchangeable compute rack is supported by a high-bandwidth connectivity loop that links separate orbital units together or transmits data directly back to Earth. The core network parameters include: 🧠 Reference designs are fully established to seamlessly accommodate NVIDIA Reuben chips. 💾 The system architecture is built to support alternative setups using NVIDIA GB300 chips. 💻 Custom hardware layouts are explicitly designed to integrate Google TPUs. 🌐 The onboard communications setup delivers roughly 1 terabit of laser link connectivity. ⏱️ The network closes the communication loop directly with the main Starlink constellation at an ultra-low latency of only 3 milliseconds. "Our current reference design is for NVIDIA Reuben chips, or it could be either GB300 or Reuben chips. We'll also have a reference design for TPUs. Essentially, you can put up any existing chips into orbit. There would also be probably something on the order of a terabit of laser link connectivity from the satellite. Then you can connect these racks of compute to each other by the laser links or directly to the Starlink constellations. Light travels 300 kilometers per millisecond, so that's about three milliseconds away." --- 🏭 The "gigasat" AI satellite and solar production hub in Bastrop, Texas Dan Huot highlighted that the primary production hub for this entire hardware ecosystem is anchored at their sprawling complex in Bastrop, Texas, officially designated as the Gigasat factory. Elon Musk verified that construction is already actively underway on the solar manufacturing facility to feed the project's supply line, with plans moving forward to construct the adjacent AI satellite assembly lines. The physical footprint and timeline of this manufacturing hub are defined by the following benchmarks: 🗺️ The company has over 1,000 acres of land currently owned or under contract for the site. 🏢 The manufacturing complex boasts a massive structural building potential exceeding 11 million square feet. ⚙️ The facility will vertically integrate production to manufacture solar ingots, wafers, solar cells, and completed AI satellites. 📅 Both the solar and AI satellite production lines are targeted to be operational at a viable volume by the end of next year. "We're going to be building a lot of satellites and we're going to be building them here in Bastrop. We already have the solar manufacturing facility under construction, and then we will be building out the AI sat production building soon. We expect to have the AI sat production, the solar production, and all of that operating at some reasonable volume by the end of next year." --- 🏢 The 100-million-square-foot "terafab" chip factory Elon Musk revealed a massive, long-term scaling strategy to build an immense chip manufacturing facility dubbed the "terafab" to completely bypass global semiconductor volume constraints. This manufacturing infrastructure is designed to transition the company into next-generation industrial scaling by producing highly specialized computing components at an unprecedented volume. The scale of this infrastructure project is defined by several extraordinary engineering and production benchmarks: 🏭 The colossal factory is projected to span approximately 100 million square feet, making it ten times larger than the current Tesla Gigafactory Texas. ⚡ The facility is structurally engineered to achieve a massive manufacturing output of 1 terawatt per year once fully operational. 📦 This unprecedented physical footprint provides the capacity required to manufacture 1 billion full-reticle equivalent chips annually. 🔌 Each individual chip manufactured by the facility is designed to run at a power capacity of 1 kilowatt. 🇺🇸 The total scaled output of the facility represents an energy footprint that is exactly double the current annual electricity consumption of the entire United States. "In order to get to the next order of magnitude, you need a gigantic chip factory. To give you a sense of scale here, we expect that the terafab is going to be around 100 million square feet, which is 10 times the size of the Tesla Gigafactory Texas. From a logic die standpoint, that's like having a billion chips per year with a kilowatt per reticle, scaling to a terawatt per year. That is twice the current electricity consumption of the United States." --- 📶 Next-generation high-volume Starlink terminals Dan Huot and Elon Musk introduced their next-generation Starlink user terminals, which have been redesigned specifically to achieve massive manufacturing throughput. Elon Musk pointed out that these newer models will be produced in vastly higher volumes than current hardware designs to fulfill their long-term global deployment targets: 📈 The upgraded user hardware is manufactured at a much higher volume capacity than existing units. 🌍 The company's ultimate target is to successfully deploy a few hundred million of these next-generation terminals worldwide. "In fact, these are the new Starlink terminals, which we made in much higher volume than the current terminals. Ultimately, we think there's probably going to be a few hundred million Starlink terminals out there." --- 📈 Aspirational timeline for orbital AI compute scaling Elon Musk laid out an ambitious, multi-year execution timeline detailing how the company plans to progressively scale space-based processing power. The roadmap targets an initial run-rate by the end of next year and sets an aggressive pace to increase total operational capacity sequentially through a structured, multi-phase timeline: 1️⃣ The initial target aims to hit an annualized run-rate of 1 gigawatt of space AI compute by the end of next year. 2️⃣ The capacity scales to an annualized rate of 10 gigawatts within the next two and a half years. 3️⃣ The operational envelope expands to reach 100 gigawatts in three and a half years. 4️⃣ The long-term deployment plan scales directly to a full terawatt capacity per year using the output of the terafab. "The goal is to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year in terms of space AI compute. Then aspirationally, we want to scale that by an order of magnitude per year. In two and a half years, hitting an annualized rate of 10 gigawatts a year in space, and in three and a half years, maybe a hundred gigawatts, going beyond that with the terafab to scale to a terawatt per year." --- 🌕 Ultimate scaling via lunar production and mass drivers Elon Musk explained that scaling three orders of magnitude past a single terawatt forces a transition completely off-planet to avoid the logistical penalty of Earth's deep gravity well. The vision relies on establishing manufacturing infrastructure directly on the moon to leverage localized resource loops and zero-atmosphere physics: 🌙 The company plans to establish localized raw production lines on the moon to fabricate solar panels, photovoltaics, and radiators from lunar materials. ⚡ Manufacturing components locally avoids the massive fuel and mass penalties of transporting heavy structural materials from Earth. 🧲 Because the moon has no atmosphere and only one-sixth of Earth's gravity, the facility will utilize an electromagnetic mass driver to launch completed satellites. 🚀 Operating essentially as a linear electric motor rail gun, this mechanism will shoot fully assembled AI satellites straight into deep space without relying on chemical rockets. "The only way that we can really see that you can achieve that is on the moon with a mass driver, essentially where you do local production of photovoltaics, solar panels, and radiators on the moon. Because the moon has no atmosphere and only one-sixth Earth's gravity, you can accelerate the AI satellites into deep space without a rocket. You can basically shoot them into space using an electromagnetic gun, like a rail gun type—it's basically a linear electric motor."
31:16

In a newly released technical update, SpaceX's leadership team, which includes communications manager Dan Huot, Director of Satellite Engineering Ian Dahl, and CEO Elon Musk, detailed a highly ambitious infrastructure roadmap to design, manufacture, and operate specialized artificial intelligence computing satellites at scale. Positioned as a major strategic pillar to dramatically elevate civilizational energy and processing capacity on the Kardashev scale, this strategy moves past traditional communications architectures into massive orbital server arrays. Here is the complete breakdown of the core technologies and timelines driving this space-based intelligence revolution: 🛰️ AI1 satellite power and compute capacity Ian Dahl and Elon Musk introduced the baseline performance targets for the first-generation AI1 satellite, explaining how its custom hardware is engineered to operate like an orbital data center server rack. Ian Dahl noted that their direct operational experience with xAI guided them to target a 150-kilowatt peak power capacity. To manage active machine learning workloads continuously, Elon Musk explained that the satellite is optimized to maintain a sustained average compute power envelope of 120 kilowatts, which directly mirrors the real-world performance of a terrestrial NVIDIA server rack. The official presentation slides outline several key operational metrics for this payload configuration: ⚡ The custom architecture delivers a 150 kW peak compute payload. 🔋 The system maintains a 120 kW sustained average compute payload under active workloads. ⚖️ The hardware achieves a highly optimized power-to-weight density of 70 kW per ton. 🔄 The layout features a completely interchangeable compute provider design. "We thought that the right place to start is around the 150 kilowatt peak power level. But as we look at the workloads with our experience with xAI, we see that we can support about 120 kilowatts of average compute. The 150 kilowatt peak power level roughly matches what, say, an NVIDIA GV300 rack would do. A more reasonable operating envelope would be around 120 kilowatts average power, but it can peak up to 150. So it is basically thinking about it as a rack of compute in space." --- 📐 AI1 satellite dimensions and thermal efficiency specs Elon Musk detailed the physical layout of the AI1 satellite, highlighting the massive dimensions required to accommodate its immense power and cooling hardware. He shared specific design criteria, explaining that the engineering relies on a custom 150 kW solar array paired with a high-capacity deployable liquid radiator thermal management system. The technical specifications of this vehicle layout include: 📏 The structural frame features a massive 70-meter wingspan. ↕️ The vehicle spans a total deployed height of 20 meters. ☀️ The onboard solar array delivers an efficiency of 250 W/m² using technology manufactured in Bastrop, Texas. 🌡️ The thermal system utilizes a 110 m² deployable liquid radiator to cleanly dump waste heat. 🔄 The cooling architecture incorporates redundant pumping loops for mission safety. 🛡️ The exterior contains integrated micrometeoroid shielding to protect the fluid lines. 🧭 The double-sided radiators achieve a dissipation rate of 1400 watts per square meter while remaining oriented knife-edge to the sun. "The assumptions here are 250 watts per square meter for the solar array and about 1400 watts per square meter for the radiators. The radiators are double-sided, radiating on both sides, and they're oriented knife-edge to the sun. They have about a 70-meter wingspan, so these are fairly large." --- 🧩 Simplified design architecture built on Starlink V3 tech Elon Musk explained that despite the satellite's imposing size, its internal architecture is fundamentally much simpler than a standard Starlink satellite. Because it lacks heavy phased array and parabolic communications antennas, the entire vehicle layout is completely streamlined around a few essential structural modules: 🎛️ The hardware framework is arranged around a centralized compute module. ☀️ Large deployable solar arrays extend outward to capture orbital energy. 🌡️ A deployable liquid-radiator thermal management system controls active operational temperatures. 🔄 The engineering team heavily leverages the component evolution and manufacturing experience gained from developing the Starlink V3 vehicle platform. "The AI satellite is actually much simpler than a Starlink satellite. A Starlink satellite has gigantic phased array antennas, parabolic antennas, and a lot of laser links, making it much more complicated. An AI satellite is essentially a lot of solar cells, a radiator, and you still need some laser links, but you don't have all of the super complex antennas that you have on a Starlink satellite. A lot of this is technology we've already made for the Starlink V3 satellites." --- 🔌 Interchangeable compute reference designs and high connectivity Elon Musk outlined a modular hardware approach for the satellite's payload, allowing it to house a variety of industry-standard processing units depending on client requirements. This interchangeable compute rack is supported by a high-bandwidth connectivity loop that links separate orbital units together or transmits data directly back to Earth. The core network parameters include: 🧠 Reference designs are fully established to seamlessly accommodate NVIDIA Reuben chips. 💾 The system architecture is built to support alternative setups using NVIDIA GB300 chips. 💻 Custom hardware layouts are explicitly designed to integrate Google TPUs. 🌐 The onboard communications setup delivers roughly 1 terabit of laser link connectivity. ⏱️ The network closes the communication loop directly with the main Starlink constellation at an ultra-low latency of only 3 milliseconds. "Our current reference design is for NVIDIA Reuben chips, or it could be either GB300 or Reuben chips. We'll also have a reference design for TPUs. Essentially, you can put up any existing chips into orbit. There would also be probably something on the order of a terabit of laser link connectivity from the satellite. Then you can connect these racks of compute to each other by the laser links or directly to the Starlink constellations. Light travels 300 kilometers per millisecond, so that's about three milliseconds away." --- 🏭 The "gigasat" AI satellite and solar production hub in Bastrop, Texas Dan Huot highlighted that the primary production hub for this entire hardware ecosystem is anchored at their sprawling complex in Bastrop, Texas, officially designated as the Gigasat factory. Elon Musk verified that construction is already actively underway on the solar manufacturing facility to feed the project's supply line, with plans moving forward to construct the adjacent AI satellite assembly lines. The physical footprint and timeline of this manufacturing hub are defined by the following benchmarks: 🗺️ The company has over 1,000 acres of land currently owned or under contract for the site. 🏢 The manufacturing complex boasts a massive structural building potential exceeding 11 million square feet. ⚙️ The facility will vertically integrate production to manufacture solar ingots, wafers, solar cells, and completed AI satellites. 📅 Both the solar and AI satellite production lines are targeted to be operational at a viable volume by the end of next year. "We're going to be building a lot of satellites and we're going to be building them here in Bastrop. We already have the solar manufacturing facility under construction, and then we will be building out the AI sat production building soon. We expect to have the AI sat production, the solar production, and all of that operating at some reasonable volume by the end of next year." --- 🏢 The 100-million-square-foot "terafab" chip factory Elon Musk revealed a massive, long-term scaling strategy to build an immense chip manufacturing facility dubbed the "terafab" to completely bypass global semiconductor volume constraints. This manufacturing infrastructure is designed to transition the company into next-generation industrial scaling by producing highly specialized computing components at an unprecedented volume. The scale of this infrastructure project is defined by several extraordinary engineering and production benchmarks: 🏭 The colossal factory is projected to span approximately 100 million square feet, making it ten times larger than the current Tesla Gigafactory Texas. ⚡ The facility is structurally engineered to achieve a massive manufacturing output of 1 terawatt per year once fully operational. 📦 This unprecedented physical footprint provides the capacity required to manufacture 1 billion full-reticle equivalent chips annually. 🔌 Each individual chip manufactured by the facility is designed to run at a power capacity of 1 kilowatt. 🇺🇸 The total scaled output of the facility represents an energy footprint that is exactly double the current annual electricity consumption of the entire United States. "In order to get to the next order of magnitude, you need a gigantic chip factory. To give you a sense of scale here, we expect that the terafab is going to be around 100 million square feet, which is 10 times the size of the Tesla Gigafactory Texas. From a logic die standpoint, that's like having a billion chips per year with a kilowatt per reticle, scaling to a terawatt per year. That is twice the current electricity consumption of the United States." --- 📶 Next-generation high-volume Starlink terminals Dan Huot and Elon Musk introduced their next-generation Starlink user terminals, which have been redesigned specifically to achieve massive manufacturing throughput. Elon Musk pointed out that these newer models will be produced in vastly higher volumes than current hardware designs to fulfill their long-term global deployment targets: 📈 The upgraded user hardware is manufactured at a much higher volume capacity than existing units. 🌍 The company's ultimate target is to successfully deploy a few hundred million of these next-generation terminals worldwide. "In fact, these are the new Starlink terminals, which we made in much higher volume than the current terminals. Ultimately, we think there's probably going to be a few hundred million Starlink terminals out there." --- 📈 Aspirational timeline for orbital AI compute scaling Elon Musk laid out an ambitious, multi-year execution timeline detailing how the company plans to progressively scale space-based processing power. The roadmap targets an initial run-rate by the end of next year and sets an aggressive pace to increase total operational capacity sequentially through a structured, multi-phase timeline: 1️⃣ The initial target aims to hit an annualized run-rate of 1 gigawatt of space AI compute by the end of next year. 2️⃣ The capacity scales to an annualized rate of 10 gigawatts within the next two and a half years. 3️⃣ The operational envelope expands to reach 100 gigawatts in three and a half years. 4️⃣ The long-term deployment plan scales directly to a full terawatt capacity per year using the output of the terafab. "The goal is to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year in terms of space AI compute. Then aspirationally, we want to scale that by an order of magnitude per year. In two and a half years, hitting an annualized rate of 10 gigawatts a year in space, and in three and a half years, maybe a hundred gigawatts, going beyond that with the terafab to scale to a terawatt per year." --- 🌕 Ultimate scaling via lunar production and mass drivers Elon Musk explained that scaling three orders of magnitude past a single terawatt forces a transition completely off-planet to avoid the logistical penalty of Earth's deep gravity well. The vision relies on establishing manufacturing infrastructure directly on the moon to leverage localized resource loops and zero-atmosphere physics: 🌙 The company plans to establish localized raw production lines on the moon to fabricate solar panels, photovoltaics, and radiators from lunar materials. ⚡ Manufacturing components locally avoids the massive fuel and mass penalties of transporting heavy structural materials from Earth. 🧲 Because the moon has no atmosphere and only one-sixth of Earth's gravity, the facility will utilize an electromagnetic mass driver to launch completed satellites. 🚀 Operating essentially as a linear electric motor rail gun, this mechanism will shoot fully assembled AI satellites straight into deep space without relying on chemical rockets. "The only way that we can really see that you can achieve that is on the moon with a mass driver, essentially where you do local production of photovoltaics, solar panels, and radiators on the moon. Because the moon has no atmosphere and only one-sixth Earth's gravity, you can accelerate the AI satellites into deep space without a rocket. You can basically shoot them into space using an electromagnetic gun, like a rail gun type—it's basically a linear electric motor."

Ming

22,203 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

If there was one clip I would want every American to listen to today it would be this one. It’s a 10 minute essential message that is long overdue. This is not catastrophising, it’s a recognition of the societal threat it represents. This not about using ChatGPT to write a report or an email, this is about the intersection between AI and robotics and that’s the accelerant on the fire that is AI. I have worked with it and I have seen first hand what it can do in terms of accelerating workflow and application development. It is formidable technology and we are way past the point at which the genie can be put back in the bottle. I wrote about it at length last year and in the short intervening period since, it has advanced beyond comprehension. As Bernie points out here, the threat to jobs is existential, but what’s important to recognise is that is the jobs most at risk are not at the bottom of the economic food chain, they are middle and upper middle class jobs. From accountants to bankers to research scientists to lawyers to programmers, a whole raft of middle and upper management roles are about to quickly become extinct. I believe we face the threat of an economic extinction event. Just as in 1928 when the wealth gap was not dissimilar to what it is today, it took an economic depression and a World War to drive an economic reset that also reset the wealth gap. These are dangerous times and unless we regulate this technology, society itself is facing an extinction event of its own. AI renders human labour acceptable collateral damage in this revolution. Declining population will shift from being a liability to an asset. The oligarchs believe they have insulated themselves against the human catastrophe that will follow. They believe they are on the right side of a winner takes all strategy and they might be right, but I suspect they are more likely wrong, because the fly in the ointment they are ignoring is CHINA. Xi is just sitting back while the West sets itself on fire. They are approaching the AI revolution in a totally different way. They will win because they don’t have to worry about the shareholder class. They don’t plan in 2 year election cycles, they plan in 10 and 25 year cycles. While the US was obsessed with large language models, China has integrated AI into manufacturing automation which is central to their wealth engine. They don’t have to build infrastructure, they’ve already done it. They don’t need to invest in supply chain infrastructure because the Belt and Road initiative is already in place. They own deep port and road infrastructure across Europe Africa and Latin America and have a distribution pipeline ready to go. They are electrifying their economy to remove reliance on fossil fuel imports. They are adding capacity to their energy grid faster than any nation on earth. In 2025 alone they added 543 GW with solar accounting for almost 50%. They have now surpassed 1,000 GW in solar power and given they manufacture 92% of the world’s solar modules they have ZERO supply chain issues as they march on to cheap energy when the U.S. is running away from renewable energy. They also added a further 80 GW of wind power. If you’re looking for a broader energy comparison, The capacity added by China since the end of 2021 already exceeds the entire power system of the United States. The critical point here is that the top two global powers are approaching the AI revolution from two opposite angles. The Chinese are seeking to integrate it into society, at the same time the oligarchs are seeking to replace society. This is why China will win and become the number one global economy. The world is at an inflection point and I’m afraid greed will prove to be the downfall of American imperial ambition. Will the rich survive? Of course they will, they always do. As for everyone else, I’m afraid you’re on your own unless they are stopped. My advice is to learn Chinese. 🎥 TikTok -
10:20

If there was one clip I would want every American to listen to today it would be this one. It’s a 10 minute essential message that is long overdue. This is not catastrophising, it’s a recognition of the societal threat it represents. This not about using ChatGPT to write a report or an email, this is about the intersection between AI and robotics and that’s the accelerant on the fire that is AI. I have worked with it and I have seen first hand what it can do in terms of accelerating workflow and application development. It is formidable technology and we are way past the point at which the genie can be put back in the bottle. I wrote about it at length last year and in the short intervening period since, it has advanced beyond comprehension. As Bernie points out here, the threat to jobs is existential, but what’s important to recognise is that is the jobs most at risk are not at the bottom of the economic food chain, they are middle and upper middle class jobs. From accountants to bankers to research scientists to lawyers to programmers, a whole raft of middle and upper management roles are about to quickly become extinct. I believe we face the threat of an economic extinction event. Just as in 1928 when the wealth gap was not dissimilar to what it is today, it took an economic depression and a World War to drive an economic reset that also reset the wealth gap. These are dangerous times and unless we regulate this technology, society itself is facing an extinction event of its own. AI renders human labour acceptable collateral damage in this revolution. Declining population will shift from being a liability to an asset. The oligarchs believe they have insulated themselves against the human catastrophe that will follow. They believe they are on the right side of a winner takes all strategy and they might be right, but I suspect they are more likely wrong, because the fly in the ointment they are ignoring is CHINA. Xi is just sitting back while the West sets itself on fire. They are approaching the AI revolution in a totally different way. They will win because they don’t have to worry about the shareholder class. They don’t plan in 2 year election cycles, they plan in 10 and 25 year cycles. While the US was obsessed with large language models, China has integrated AI into manufacturing automation which is central to their wealth engine. They don’t have to build infrastructure, they’ve already done it. They don’t need to invest in supply chain infrastructure because the Belt and Road initiative is already in place. They own deep port and road infrastructure across Europe Africa and Latin America and have a distribution pipeline ready to go. They are electrifying their economy to remove reliance on fossil fuel imports. They are adding capacity to their energy grid faster than any nation on earth. In 2025 alone they added 543 GW with solar accounting for almost 50%. They have now surpassed 1,000 GW in solar power and given they manufacture 92% of the world’s solar modules they have ZERO supply chain issues as they march on to cheap energy when the U.S. is running away from renewable energy. They also added a further 80 GW of wind power. If you’re looking for a broader energy comparison, The capacity added by China since the end of 2021 already exceeds the entire power system of the United States. The critical point here is that the top two global powers are approaching the AI revolution from two opposite angles. The Chinese are seeking to integrate it into society, at the same time the oligarchs are seeking to replace society. This is why China will win and become the number one global economy. The world is at an inflection point and I’m afraid greed will prove to be the downfall of American imperial ambition. Will the rich survive? Of course they will, they always do. As for everyone else, I’m afraid you’re on your own unless they are stopped. My advice is to learn Chinese. 🎥 TikTok -

𝔗𝔯𝔲𝔱𝔥 𝔐𝔞𝔱𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔰

71,225 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten