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2029 will get nutty. Starship launches hourly. Launch. Catch. Restack. Refuel. Repeat. Not hype. Logistics. Orbit turns into rush hour. SpaceX

Mario Nawfal

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49,275 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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SpaceX will exceed everyone in AI. Everyone combined. Launch. Orbit. Data. Repeat. Industrial rhythm. Autonomy trained in orbit. Not slides. Not demos. Compute married to rockets. Entirely different stack. SpaceX

SpaceX will exceed everyone in AI. Everyone combined. Launch. Orbit. Data. Repeat. Industrial rhythm. Autonomy trained in orbit. Not slides. Not demos. Compute married to rockets. Entirely different stack. SpaceX

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸 ELON: STARSHIP TO BE CAUGHT MID-AIR BY TOWER THIS YEAR SpaceX aims to catch Starship using the launch tower’s giant arms—just like it already does with the Super Heavy booster. If successful, it would mark a huge leap toward rapid reusability. No ocean landings, no recovery ships—just launch, catch, refuel, repeat. Elon: “Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster.” Reusable Starship is essential for building a sustainable route to Mars. Source: Elon Musk, SpaceX

🇺🇸 ELON: STARSHIP TO BE CAUGHT MID-AIR BY TOWER THIS YEAR SpaceX aims to catch Starship using the launch tower’s giant arms—just like it already does with the Super Heavy booster. If successful, it would mark a huge leap toward rapid reusability. No ocean landings, no recovery ships—just launch, catch, refuel, repeat. Elon: “Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster.” Reusable Starship is essential for building a sustainable route to Mars. Source: Elon Musk, SpaceX

Mario Nawfal

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SPACEX'S NEXT BIG TRAVEL HACK - REFUELING IN ORBIT Forget pit stops on Earth – SpaceX wants to gas up rockets mid-orbit! The Refuel Play: •⁠ ⁠Mars ships launch full of cargo but nearly dry on fuel •⁠ ⁠Tanker Starships will chase them up and top off the tanks •⁠ ⁠No one’s ever pulled this off – orbital refueling is uncharted territory Refuel in orbit, land on Mars – SpaceX is turning sci-fi into flight plans! Source: SpaceX, Elon Musk, Bill Riley - Aug 25, 2025

SPACEX'S NEXT BIG TRAVEL HACK - REFUELING IN ORBIT Forget pit stops on Earth – SpaceX wants to gas up rockets mid-orbit! The Refuel Play: •⁠ ⁠Mars ships launch full of cargo but nearly dry on fuel •⁠ ⁠Tanker Starships will chase them up and top off the tanks •⁠ ⁠No one’s ever pulled this off – orbital refueling is uncharted territory Refuel in orbit, land on Mars – SpaceX is turning sci-fi into flight plans! Source: SpaceX, Elon Musk, Bill Riley - Aug 25, 2025

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🚨🇺🇸 SPACEX CREW CHANTS “USA!” AS STARSHIP COMPLETES SATELLITE DEPLOYMENT TEST Starship just ejected its last dummy satellite during payload testing and the SpaceX team erupted into chants of "USA! USA!" The test simulated how Starship will one day deploy around 60 Starlink V3 satellites per launch, adding 60 terabits per second of network capacity — about 20 times more than a Falcon 9 can deliver. Starship is about to replace Falcon 9 as SpaceX's workhorse despite being bigger and more complex, because it'll cost less per kilogram to orbit. American engineers just flexed on the entire planet. Source: SpaceX

🚨🇺🇸 SPACEX CREW CHANTS “USA!” AS STARSHIP COMPLETES SATELLITE DEPLOYMENT TEST Starship just ejected its last dummy satellite during payload testing and the SpaceX team erupted into chants of "USA! USA!" The test simulated how Starship will one day deploy around 60 Starlink V3 satellites per launch, adding 60 terabits per second of network capacity — about 20 times more than a Falcon 9 can deliver. Starship is about to replace Falcon 9 as SpaceX's workhorse despite being bigger and more complex, because it'll cost less per kilogram to orbit. American engineers just flexed on the entire planet. Source: SpaceX

Mario Nawfal

156,841 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Elon Musk on Starship: — The next launch will be the final one using the Starlink V2 stack; after that, Starship moves to Version 3, a major upgrade with Raptor 3 engines and many changes — V3 may face initial challenges due to the redesign, but it will be capable of fully reusable launches delivering over 100 tons to orbit — Barring major setbacks, SpaceX expects to demonstrate full reusability next year, recovering both the booster and the ship

Elon Musk on Starship: — The next launch will be the final one using the Starlink V2 stack; after that, Starship moves to Version 3, a major upgrade with Raptor 3 engines and many changes — V3 may face initial challenges due to the redesign, but it will be capable of fully reusable launches delivering over 100 tons to orbit — Barring major setbacks, SpaceX expects to demonstrate full reusability next year, recovering both the booster and the ship

Dima Zeniuk

162,097 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Elon Musk reveals what SpaceX is gearing up to do in the next five years "Five years from now, my prediction is we will launch and be operating every year more AI in space than the cumulative total on Earth" "100 gigawatts is on the order of 10,000 Starship launches. You want to do that in one year. That's like one Starship launch every hour" "It really depends on how quickly the ship has to go around the Earth and come back over the launch pad. If you can use a ship every 30 hours, you could do it with 30 ships" "SpaceX is gearing up to do 10,000 launches a year, and maybe even 20 or 30,000 launches a year" "If some of my predictions come true, SpaceX will launch more AI than the cumulative amount on Earth of everything else combined"

Elon Musk reveals what SpaceX is gearing up to do in the next five years "Five years from now, my prediction is we will launch and be operating every year more AI in space than the cumulative total on Earth" "100 gigawatts is on the order of 10,000 Starship launches. You want to do that in one year. That's like one Starship launch every hour" "It really depends on how quickly the ship has to go around the Earth and come back over the launch pad. If you can use a ship every 30 hours, you could do it with 30 ships" "SpaceX is gearing up to do 10,000 launches a year, and maybe even 20 or 30,000 launches a year" "If some of my predictions come true, SpaceX will launch more AI than the cumulative amount on Earth of everything else combined"

Jaynit

42,943 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚀 Starship will be the 1st fully reusable orbital rocket in history. Liquid oxygen, liquid methane, and a cost-per-launch that could drop below trans-oceanic air freight. Elon put it simply: "The cost of access to orbit is just the cost of propellant." If that holds, the economics of space will get rewritten entirely. Source: SpaceX, Elon Musk

🚀 Starship will be the 1st fully reusable orbital rocket in history. Liquid oxygen, liquid methane, and a cost-per-launch that could drop below trans-oceanic air freight. Elon put it simply: "The cost of access to orbit is just the cost of propellant." If that holds, the economics of space will get rewritten entirely. Source: SpaceX, Elon Musk

Mario Nawfal

51,520 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk: I didn't think SpaceX would succeed – and it almost didn't. “We started off developing a small rocket, which was kind of a scale model version and proceeded to have three failed launches in a row. For various technical reasons, the first three launches did not succeed in reaching orbit. Launches 2 and 3 did get to space, but they didn't achieve enough speed to reach orbital velocity. It was in 2008, we were heading into the recession, and we had one rocket left. Fortunately, in late 2008, that fourth launch did work and we made it to orbit and then we won a NASA contract after that. Fortunately things worked out. But if that fourth launch had not worked, then SpaceX wouldn't be around. So it was very close call. In fact, when I started I thought, okay, I think I've got enough money for three launches. Fortunately, it was just enough to make that fourth one.” Montana Jobs Summit, September 16, 2013

Elon Musk: I didn't think SpaceX would succeed – and it almost didn't. “We started off developing a small rocket, which was kind of a scale model version and proceeded to have three failed launches in a row. For various technical reasons, the first three launches did not succeed in reaching orbit. Launches 2 and 3 did get to space, but they didn't achieve enough speed to reach orbital velocity. It was in 2008, we were heading into the recession, and we had one rocket left. Fortunately, in late 2008, that fourth launch did work and we made it to orbit and then we won a NASA contract after that. Fortunately things worked out. But if that fourth launch had not worked, then SpaceX wouldn't be around. So it was very close call. In fact, when I started I thought, okay, I think I've got enough money for three launches. Fortunately, it was just enough to make that fourth one.” Montana Jobs Summit, September 16, 2013

ELON CLIPS

37,171 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Elon Musk says SpaceX will launch 10,000 Starships a year — one every hour. SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 about once a week. Other rocket companies launched once a year, if at all. ULA. Arianespace. Roscosmos. The total global cadence: maybe two hundred orbital launches a year. "That's like one Starship launch every hour." A launch at noon. A launch at one. A launch at two. Twenty-four launches a day. Three hundred sixty-five days. From a single launch pad. In a single Texas town. Then Musk reframed the cadence. "That's actually a lower rate compared to airlines, aircraft. There's a lot of airports." He named the model: the Starship airport. A single pad doing the work of a hundred. Musk, whose Starbase had already shipped two boosters in flight, knew an airport's rhythm. A fleet of 20 to 30 reusable Starships, each rotating through a 30-hour ground-cycle, would carry a million tons of payload to orbit per year — the volume required to make AI in space cheaper than AI on Earth. "You could probably do it with as few as 20 or 30." 20 ships. 30-hour cycle. 10,000 launches. One billion-dollar machine flying every 30 hours, year-round. After Musk drew the cadence, Starship became an airline. Mostly cargo. Some humans. Plenty of fuel. Musk, on the new ceiling: "SpaceX is gearing up to do 10,000 launches a year, and maybe even 20 or 30,000 launches a year." What's a frequency you've defaulted to that should actually be 100x more often? P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history's greatest thinkers. 5,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: If you're new here, follow GeniusThinking for content on the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. — Elon Musk ( Elon Musk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( Dwarkesh Patel ) podcast

Elon Musk says SpaceX will launch 10,000 Starships a year — one every hour. SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 about once a week. Other rocket companies launched once a year, if at all. ULA. Arianespace. Roscosmos. The total global cadence: maybe two hundred orbital launches a year. "That's like one Starship launch every hour." A launch at noon. A launch at one. A launch at two. Twenty-four launches a day. Three hundred sixty-five days. From a single launch pad. In a single Texas town. Then Musk reframed the cadence. "That's actually a lower rate compared to airlines, aircraft. There's a lot of airports." He named the model: the Starship airport. A single pad doing the work of a hundred. Musk, whose Starbase had already shipped two boosters in flight, knew an airport's rhythm. A fleet of 20 to 30 reusable Starships, each rotating through a 30-hour ground-cycle, would carry a million tons of payload to orbit per year — the volume required to make AI in space cheaper than AI on Earth. "You could probably do it with as few as 20 or 30." 20 ships. 30-hour cycle. 10,000 launches. One billion-dollar machine flying every 30 hours, year-round. After Musk drew the cadence, Starship became an airline. Mostly cargo. Some humans. Plenty of fuel. Musk, on the new ceiling: "SpaceX is gearing up to do 10,000 launches a year, and maybe even 20 or 30,000 launches a year." What's a frequency you've defaulted to that should actually be 100x more often? P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history's greatest thinkers. 5,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: If you're new here, follow GeniusThinking for content on the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. — Elon Musk ( Elon Musk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( Dwarkesh Patel ) podcast

GeniusThinking

29,867 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

NEWS: SpaceX has detailed Starmind, its plan for up to 1 million AI compute satellites in orbit, on a new website. Starmind moves AI data centers into space. Each satellite runs AI compute in orbit and beams results to Earth through Starlink lasers. The satellites draw constant solar power and cool for free in the vacuum. SpaceX filed that plan with the FCC in January. The first satellite, AI1, carries 150 kW of peak compute and spans 70 meters. Starship will carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch. SpaceX will build them at a new Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas. The AI chips come from a planned SpaceX and Tesla fab called Terafab. Two prototypes target early 2027, with thousands of satellites from late 2027.

NEWS: SpaceX has detailed Starmind, its plan for up to 1 million AI compute satellites in orbit, on a new website. Starmind moves AI data centers into space. Each satellite runs AI compute in orbit and beams results to Earth through Starlink lasers. The satellites draw constant solar power and cool for free in the vacuum. SpaceX filed that plan with the FCC in January. The first satellite, AI1, carries 150 kW of peak compute and spans 70 meters. Starship will carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch. SpaceX will build them at a new Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas. The AI chips come from a planned SpaceX and Tesla fab called Terafab. Two prototypes target early 2027, with thousands of satellites from late 2027.

Muskonomy

25,383 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

NEW: The All-In Podcast praises Elon Musk and SpaceX for successfully catching the massive Starship booster and projects that Starlink could easily surpass 100 million subscribers. "SpaceX has dramatically reduced the costs per kilogram to launch material into low-earth orbit." "Elon's always said that $1000 a kilogram is too high, and his objective is to get the cost down to $10 a kilogram." "It was critical to be able to reuse that heavy booster, and that's what Elon just demonstrated. So you can actually catch that heavy booster, refuel it, and launch it an hour later." "If you can do that over and over again, you're spending $10 a kilogram to put material into space. You can get fuel into space and then get those Starships to fly off to Mars and deliver all this material, including setting up a base that would allow you to actually make more fuel on Mars." "So it's the beginning of the next series of really important milestones that will hopefully get humanity to Mars. It was so amazing to see it come together. The economics are legit. This is like a 1000x reduction in cost." "Starlink is running like 4 million subs right now at $100 a month." "If we can get satellite to phone and Starlink more broadly available, this could be a 100 million subscriber business."

NEW: The All-In Podcast praises Elon Musk and SpaceX for successfully catching the massive Starship booster and projects that Starlink could easily surpass 100 million subscribers. "SpaceX has dramatically reduced the costs per kilogram to launch material into low-earth orbit." "Elon's always said that $1000 a kilogram is too high, and his objective is to get the cost down to $10 a kilogram." "It was critical to be able to reuse that heavy booster, and that's what Elon just demonstrated. So you can actually catch that heavy booster, refuel it, and launch it an hour later." "If you can do that over and over again, you're spending $10 a kilogram to put material into space. You can get fuel into space and then get those Starships to fly off to Mars and deliver all this material, including setting up a base that would allow you to actually make more fuel on Mars." "So it's the beginning of the next series of really important milestones that will hopefully get humanity to Mars. It was so amazing to see it come together. The economics are legit. This is like a 1000x reduction in cost." "Starlink is running like 4 million subs right now at $100 a month." "If we can get satellite to phone and Starlink more broadly available, this could be a 100 million subscriber business."

KanekoaTheGreat

1,493,035 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The cheapest place to put AI will be space. Elon Musk says solar panels in space produce 5 times more power than on the ground. No atmosphere, no clouds, no day-night cycle. No batteries needed. And critically, no permits. Scaling energy on Earth means fighting land use regulations, environmental reviews, and grid interconnection queues that take years. Space has none of that. The math gets wild fast. SpaceX could launch hundreds of gigawatts of AI compute into orbit annually. That's more compute than currently exists on Earth. Ten thousand Starship launches per year. One launch every hour. And you only need 20 to 30 ships to sustain that cadence. Earth gets about half a billionth of the Sun's total energy output. A millionth of the Sun's energy is 100,000 times all of civilization's current electricity production. The AI race is not a software race. It is a power plant race. And software people are about to get a very hard lesson in hardware.

The cheapest place to put AI will be space. Elon Musk says solar panels in space produce 5 times more power than on the ground. No atmosphere, no clouds, no day-night cycle. No batteries needed. And critically, no permits. Scaling energy on Earth means fighting land use regulations, environmental reviews, and grid interconnection queues that take years. Space has none of that. The math gets wild fast. SpaceX could launch hundreds of gigawatts of AI compute into orbit annually. That's more compute than currently exists on Earth. Ten thousand Starship launches per year. One launch every hour. And you only need 20 to 30 ships to sustain that cadence. Earth gets about half a billionth of the Sun's total energy output. A millionth of the Sun's energy is 100,000 times all of civilization's current electricity production. The AI race is not a software race. It is a power plant race. And software people are about to get a very hard lesson in hardware.

Shruti

11,700 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

🇺🇸 AX-4 CREW STANDING BY FOR LAUNCH The Ax-4 mission is locked, loaded, and waiting on the launch pad. A mix of ex-NASA talent and international astronauts, the team is prepped for liftoff in what will be Axiom Space’s 4th private mission to the ISS, pushing deeper into the era of commercial spaceflight. Their ride? A SpaceX Crew Dragon. Their mission? Microgravity research, tech demos, and proving that low-Earth orbit is open for business. Next stop: the edge of Earth. Countdown’s on. Sky’s not the limit anymore. Source: Axiom, SpaceX

🇺🇸 AX-4 CREW STANDING BY FOR LAUNCH The Ax-4 mission is locked, loaded, and waiting on the launch pad. A mix of ex-NASA talent and international astronauts, the team is prepped for liftoff in what will be Axiom Space’s 4th private mission to the ISS, pushing deeper into the era of commercial spaceflight. Their ride? A SpaceX Crew Dragon. Their mission? Microgravity research, tech demos, and proving that low-Earth orbit is open for business. Next stop: the edge of Earth. Countdown’s on. Sky’s not the limit anymore. Source: Axiom, SpaceX

Mario Nawfal

62,123 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Chamath has been watching SpaceX for 15 years and he thinks the market is still not close to understanding what it actually is (Save this). The first argument is the industrial logic of a Tesla SpaceX combination. One capital structure, one balance sheet, one vehicle to raise money across robotics, autonomous vehicles, energy, AI, and launch. Chamath Palihapitiya argument is that markets are treating this as a peripheral possibility rather than an obvious strategic inevitability. The second is Starlink Direct to Cell, which he believes will generate enormous domestic cellular revenue before most of the bigger SpaceX narratives even begin to materialize. The numbers already back this up. Starlink has over 10 million Direct to Cell monthly active users with live partnerships with T-Mobile, Rogers and Optus standard smartphones connecting directly to satellites with no special hardware required. SpaceX is currently deploying approximately 340 Direct to Cell satellites per month, targeting 25 million monthly active users by end of 2026. Goldman forecasts SpaceX's AI division will generate $15.6 billion in 2026, rising to $34.5 billion in 2027 and accelerating to $322 billion by 2030 roughly a 100-fold increase in five years. Total SpaceX revenue hits $474 billion by 2030, up from $18.7 billion in 2025. The launch cadence numbers are where this gets staggering. SpaceX is expected to execute 151 Starship launches in 2027, scaling to 253 in 2028, then 1,504 in 2029, 2,808 in 2030, and 5,467 in 2031. Goldman projects 5,288 of those 2031 launches will be dedicated Starship AI missions each carrying 30 to 50 satellites powered by one GB300 equivalent compute rack apiece. The cost per kilogram to orbit falls below $100 as reusability matures, compared to $1,500 per kilogram on Falcon 9 today. Morgan Stanley projected a 24-hour turnaround by late 2027, enabling the kind of cadence these numbers require. That launch cost collapse is what makes the orbital AI compute thesis real Elon Musk

Chamath has been watching SpaceX for 15 years and he thinks the market is still not close to understanding what it actually is (Save this). The first argument is the industrial logic of a Tesla SpaceX combination. One capital structure, one balance sheet, one vehicle to raise money across robotics, autonomous vehicles, energy, AI, and launch. Chamath Palihapitiya argument is that markets are treating this as a peripheral possibility rather than an obvious strategic inevitability. The second is Starlink Direct to Cell, which he believes will generate enormous domestic cellular revenue before most of the bigger SpaceX narratives even begin to materialize. The numbers already back this up. Starlink has over 10 million Direct to Cell monthly active users with live partnerships with T-Mobile, Rogers and Optus standard smartphones connecting directly to satellites with no special hardware required. SpaceX is currently deploying approximately 340 Direct to Cell satellites per month, targeting 25 million monthly active users by end of 2026. Goldman forecasts SpaceX's AI division will generate $15.6 billion in 2026, rising to $34.5 billion in 2027 and accelerating to $322 billion by 2030 roughly a 100-fold increase in five years. Total SpaceX revenue hits $474 billion by 2030, up from $18.7 billion in 2025. The launch cadence numbers are where this gets staggering. SpaceX is expected to execute 151 Starship launches in 2027, scaling to 253 in 2028, then 1,504 in 2029, 2,808 in 2030, and 5,467 in 2031. Goldman projects 5,288 of those 2031 launches will be dedicated Starship AI missions each carrying 30 to 50 satellites powered by one GB300 equivalent compute rack apiece. The cost per kilogram to orbit falls below $100 as reusability matures, compared to $1,500 per kilogram on Falcon 9 today. Morgan Stanley projected a 24-hour turnaround by late 2027, enabling the kind of cadence these numbers require. That launch cost collapse is what makes the orbital AI compute thesis real Elon Musk

Milk Road AI

93,424 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

Elon Musk: Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1 but has 400 times the payload. “One of the most profound things is that Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1. That's the difference between a fully reusable rocket or an expendable rocket. The fully reusable rocket with low-cost propellant and autogenous pressurization actually costs less than a tiny expendable rocket. Falcon 1 is about half a ton to orbit. The Starship 3 will be 400 times more payload for less than the cost of a Falcon 1. Ultimately, I think we might be able to get the cost per flight to Earth orbit down to around $2 or $3 million. These are unthinkable numbers. Nobody ever thought this was possible but we're not breaking any physics to achieve this.” SpaceX Update, April 4, 2024

Elon Musk: Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1 but has 400 times the payload. “One of the most profound things is that Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1. That's the difference between a fully reusable rocket or an expendable rocket. The fully reusable rocket with low-cost propellant and autogenous pressurization actually costs less than a tiny expendable rocket. Falcon 1 is about half a ton to orbit. The Starship 3 will be 400 times more payload for less than the cost of a Falcon 1. Ultimately, I think we might be able to get the cost per flight to Earth orbit down to around $2 or $3 million. These are unthinkable numbers. Nobody ever thought this was possible but we're not breaking any physics to achieve this.” SpaceX Update, April 4, 2024

ELON CLIPS

29,437,361 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🇺🇸 STARSHIP FLIGHT 11: SHIP 38 HEADS TO THE PAD Elon confirmed launch is set for Monday ~5PM CT, building on the success of Flight 10 with high-stakes upgrades and aggressive testing. The booster, reused from Flight 8, will launch with 24 flight-proven Raptor engines and test a new 13-5-3 landing burn configuration, ending with a hover and drop into the Gulf of Mexico - no catch attempt. Starship will perform in-space tests, including a Raptor engine relight and deployment of 8 Starlink simulators. These are suborbital and will burn up on reentry. Reentry is designed to push limits: heat shield tiles have been deliberately removed in vulnerable areas to stress-test the system. The ship will attempt a final dynamic banking maneuver, testing the subsonic return profile for future landings at Starbase, with splashdown set for the Indian Ocean. Source: NSF - NASASpaceflight.com, SpaceX

Mario Nawfal

51,391 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

The first question I asked Elon Musk: What’s the point of sending GPUs into space? The whole idea behind orbital data centers is that if the launch costs continue to drop, it will become cheaper to put GPUs in orbit than to build power plants on Earth. The problem with this argument is that energy is only about 15% of a datacenter’s lifetime cost. The chips themselves are around 70%. And you still have to launch those to space! Elon kept returning to one point over and over again: It will simply not be physically possible to scale power production to the scale needed for AI on Earth. He kept pointing out the bottlenecks we’ve already run into on Earth: You can’t plug into the utilities - the interconnect queues are too long. You can’t do behind-the-meter natural gas and generate power yourself - lead times for turbines stretch past 2030. You can’t do solar on Earth, because of permits, and because of the tariffs. For it to make economical sense to shift compute to space, all of the following things would need to be true: - Power generation on Earth hits a ceiling, or AI demand outstrips every terrestrial option (for context, 1 TW of solar power is only 1% of the land area of the US, and AI currently only uses about 20 GW globally). - Chip production scales faster than power generation (because Elon builds TeraFab). It would be surprising if building and placing solar panels turned out to be harder than scaling semiconductor manufacturing. - Starship reaches thousands of launches per year. In that world, Elon wins the AI race outright. SpaceX is the only entity that can launch at that scale. xAI would have unlimited power. Everyone else will be stuck fighting over grid interconnects and turbine orders. And if those 3 conditions aren’t met? Well, on Earth, xAI is just gonna be one of the pack anyways - and there’s no market for the 4th best AI model. Elon’s comparative advantage was never going to be navigating utility interconnect queues or filing permits faster than Google. His advantage is SpaceX. So why not just bet on the world where SpaceX becomes the kingmaker? I asked Elon what that world looks like. 100 GW = 10,000 starship launches, and he wants to do more than that every year by 2030. That’s one starship launch every hour.

The first question I asked Elon Musk: What’s the point of sending GPUs into space? The whole idea behind orbital data centers is that if the launch costs continue to drop, it will become cheaper to put GPUs in orbit than to build power plants on Earth. The problem with this argument is that energy is only about 15% of a datacenter’s lifetime cost. The chips themselves are around 70%. And you still have to launch those to space! Elon kept returning to one point over and over again: It will simply not be physically possible to scale power production to the scale needed for AI on Earth. He kept pointing out the bottlenecks we’ve already run into on Earth: You can’t plug into the utilities - the interconnect queues are too long. You can’t do behind-the-meter natural gas and generate power yourself - lead times for turbines stretch past 2030. You can’t do solar on Earth, because of permits, and because of the tariffs. For it to make economical sense to shift compute to space, all of the following things would need to be true: - Power generation on Earth hits a ceiling, or AI demand outstrips every terrestrial option (for context, 1 TW of solar power is only 1% of the land area of the US, and AI currently only uses about 20 GW globally). - Chip production scales faster than power generation (because Elon builds TeraFab). It would be surprising if building and placing solar panels turned out to be harder than scaling semiconductor manufacturing. - Starship reaches thousands of launches per year. In that world, Elon wins the AI race outright. SpaceX is the only entity that can launch at that scale. xAI would have unlimited power. Everyone else will be stuck fighting over grid interconnects and turbine orders. And if those 3 conditions aren’t met? Well, on Earth, xAI is just gonna be one of the pack anyways - and there’s no market for the 4th best AI model. Elon’s comparative advantage was never going to be navigating utility interconnect queues or filing permits faster than Google. His advantage is SpaceX. So why not just bet on the world where SpaceX becomes the kingmaker? I asked Elon what that world looks like. 100 GW = 10,000 starship launches, and he wants to do more than that every year by 2030. That’s one starship launch every hour.

Dwarkesh Patel

404,497 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Every rocket ever built before Starship was thrown away after one use. Elon Musk just explained on a SpaceX livestream why that single fact made space exploration practically impossible until now. His analogy was the one that landed hardest. Imagine if you had to throw away a commercial airplane every time it flew. Not maintain it. Not refuel it. Throw it away and build a new one. What happens to the price of a ticket? What happens to the airline industry? What happens to global travel? It collapses. Nobody flies. That is exactly what every space program in history has been doing with rockets. Building them once, using them once, throwing them away. The cost was not a failure of ambition. It was a structural consequence of how the hardware worked. Starship is the first rocket ever designed for full and rapid reusability. Not just reusable. Rapidly reusable. The rocket lands, gets caught by the tower, goes back on the launch stand, and flies again without refurbishment. Like an aircraft. No laborious inspection between flights. Starship B3 is already more than double the thrust of the Saturn 5 moon rocket. Version 4 will be roughly three times. And Musk said they expect Starship to be flying more than once per hour eventually. That number is hard to absorb. The most powerful moving object ever built. Flying more than once per hour. The cost of getting mass to orbit does not drop gradually when that happens. It collapses. And when the cost collapses, everything that was previously impossible becomes a question of how fast you can build. Reusability is not a feature. It is the entire unlock. Every other problem in space is downstream of this one.

Every rocket ever built before Starship was thrown away after one use. Elon Musk just explained on a SpaceX livestream why that single fact made space exploration practically impossible until now. His analogy was the one that landed hardest. Imagine if you had to throw away a commercial airplane every time it flew. Not maintain it. Not refuel it. Throw it away and build a new one. What happens to the price of a ticket? What happens to the airline industry? What happens to global travel? It collapses. Nobody flies. That is exactly what every space program in history has been doing with rockets. Building them once, using them once, throwing them away. The cost was not a failure of ambition. It was a structural consequence of how the hardware worked. Starship is the first rocket ever designed for full and rapid reusability. Not just reusable. Rapidly reusable. The rocket lands, gets caught by the tower, goes back on the launch stand, and flies again without refurbishment. Like an aircraft. No laborious inspection between flights. Starship B3 is already more than double the thrust of the Saturn 5 moon rocket. Version 4 will be roughly three times. And Musk said they expect Starship to be flying more than once per hour eventually. That number is hard to absorb. The most powerful moving object ever built. Flying more than once per hour. The cost of getting mass to orbit does not drop gradually when that happens. It collapses. And when the cost collapses, everything that was previously impossible becomes a question of how fast you can build. Reusability is not a feature. It is the entire unlock. Every other problem in space is downstream of this one.

Ihtesham Ali

10,431 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat