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2029 will get nutty. Starship launches hourly. Launch. Catch. Restack. Refuel. Repeat. Not hype. Logistics. Orbit turns into rush hour. SpaceX

49,275 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk says SpaceX will launch 10,000 Starships a year — one every hour. SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 about once a week. Other rocket companies launched once a year, if at all. ULA. Arianespace. Roscosmos. The total global cadence: maybe two hundred orbital launches a year. "That's like one Starship launch every hour." A launch at noon. A launch at one. A launch at two. Twenty-four launches a day. Three hundred sixty-five days. From a single launch pad. In a single Texas town. Then Musk reframed the cadence. "That's actually a lower rate compared to airlines, aircraft. There's a lot of airports." He named the model: the Starship airport. A single pad doing the work of a hundred. Musk, whose Starbase had already shipped two boosters in flight, knew an airport's rhythm. A fleet of 20 to 30 reusable Starships, each rotating through a 30-hour ground-cycle, would carry a million tons of payload to orbit per year — the volume required to make AI in space cheaper than AI on Earth. "You could probably do it with as few as 20 or 30." 20 ships. 30-hour cycle. 10,000 launches. One billion-dollar machine flying every 30 hours, year-round. After Musk drew the cadence, Starship became an airline. Mostly cargo. Some humans. Plenty of fuel. Musk, on the new ceiling: "SpaceX is gearing up to do 10,000 launches a year, and maybe even 20 or 30,000 launches a year." What's a frequency you've defaulted to that should actually be 100x more often? P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history's greatest thinkers. 5,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: If you're new here, follow GeniusThinking for content on the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. — Elon Musk ( Elon Musk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( Dwarkesh Patel ) podcast

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29,867 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад