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‘25 LHP Samuel Zaa This is what future A/AVG command looks like @ 15 y/o. Smooth delivery w/ deceptive wrap that throws off hitter’s timing. Good ease of op. Tough angle, lead arm matches slot perfectly. Ceiling is there FB 79-82 T83 tail CB 67-69 (1-7) CH 72 fade...

13,254 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren •via X (Twitter)

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LHP Ben Abeldt (TCU Baseball) is a name to follow closely this spring. Enjoyed a strong Freshman year in which he worked a 3.60 ERA with 71 Ks to 24 BB in 55 IP. Was dominant last spring and pitched his way to a 1.83 ERA with 54 Ks to just 16 BB across 44.1 IP. Two-time Team USA invitee. Standard pitchers' frame at 6-foot-3 and 210-pounds. Added noticeable strength and physicality to it between '23 and '24. Some natural funk and deception in his delivery. Uncomfortable look, especially for LHH. Works exclusively on the 1B side of the rubber which makes it even tougher for LHH. Long, loose arm stroke and attacks from a low-three quarter slot. Big time crossfire. Abeldt relies heavily on his fastball (threw it 79% of the time in '24) that sits in the 91-94 MPH range. Was up to 96 during the spring and up to 98 over the summer. Run and ride through the zone with particular life on his arm side. Like a lot of the low-release lefties who have a little giddy up on their heaters, it's generates the most whiffs when located on the inner-1/2 and/or top-1/2 of the zone. Does a nice job of staying off the barrel with it, 23% whiff and OBA of .208 last spring. Go-to secondary offering is his low-80s slider. Long, sweeping life with some late bite at times. Not to beat a dead horse, but just a brutal look for lefties; Abeldt will release the pitch from essentially behind their backs. Legit swing-and-miss pitch that's effective against both right and lefthanded hitters. 45% miss rate last spring, comfortably a 55. Closer to a 6 than a 55. Third pitch right now is a low-80s CH for which he's still gaining a feel. Gets good separation off his FB (averaged 10 MPH off) and does a nice job of killing spin. Natural fade to the arm side and will occasionally flash some tumbling life. Profiles as an effective option against RHH. Strike-throwing ability is above-average. The key for Abeldt this season is selling his ability to start. Has made just 2 starts in his collegiate career and could headline TCU's rotation in '25. Look for both the SL and CH usage (especially the SL) to tick up. Curious to see how he fares in more extended looks. Easy comp is former Miami LHP Rafe Schlesinger. 3rd-4th round type this July.

Peter Flaherty III

27,890 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

One of my favorite college arms in the 2025 class is LHP Cade Fisher (Florida Gators Baseball). Had a fantastic true Freshman season in 2023, pitching his way to a 6-0 record with a 3.10 ERA and 48 Ks to 13 BB across 49.1 IP. Lean build at 6'4" and 210-lbs with some physicality in the lower-half. Long arm stroke, attacks from a deceptive low-three quarter slot. Low release height - averaged around 5' on his FB. Easy, under control operation that Fisher repeats well. Maintains good direction towards the plate. Fisher's FB sits in the 91-93 range, but has been up to 95. Plenty of natural run to the arm side, and last year averaged nearly 19" of run. Fisher has plus control of the pitch, and it's most effective when located on the outer-half (to RHH, inner-half to LHH) of the plate. Best secondary pitch is his high-70s/low-80s SL. Long, sweeping action with some teeth at times. Fisher has advanced feel for the pitch and manipulates its shape well. Shorter action with a bit more depth against RHH. Can land it for strikes, generated a 39% miss rate in '23 while holding opposing hitters to a .229 average. 56% miss rate this fall. Lastly, Fisher throws a mid-80s CH. It's a bit of a work in progress right now, but I'm excited about what the pitch could look like. Last year flashed ample late fade at times. Big game pitcher who wants the ball on the biggest stage. Fired 7 innings of 1-run ball against Texas Tech with UF's backs against the wall in Regionals, and then allowed just 1 ER across 4.2 IP in the CWS Finals. Outstanding mound presence. Fisher has pro-level starter written all over him and could be a first round pick in 2025.

Peter Flaherty III

31,621 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

RHP Striker Pence (2028) this afternoon turned in what will almost certainly be the loudest outing of the tournament. Fired 2 shutout innings against the Brewers Scout Team in which he collected 3 strikeouts, allowed 1 hit and walked 1. Extra-long 6’6”, 200-pound frame with budding strength throughout. Particular physicality in Pence’s lower-half. Works exclusively out of the stretch and attacks out of a 3/4 slot with a whippy arm stroke and tremendous arm speed. FB today sat 96-99 and topped out at 100/101. Pence touched 101—a new in-game PR—4 times. Explodes out of his hand and flashes thunderous life through the zone. No shortage of carry. I would stick a 70 on it right now. Pairs his heater with a hellacious mid-to-upper-80s power SL. Tons of sharp, lateral life with some depth. Really tough look for righties, but back-doored it for a called 3rd strike against a LHH. 60 right now, but not all that difficult to envision a future double-plus offering. Pence rounds out his arsenal with a high-80s SPL/CH. Does a nice job of killing spin on the offering, and he turned over one really good one today that flashed late tumble. Down the road it could end up being a mighty effective 3rd pitch that grades out as at least a 55. There’s some low hanging fruit to clean up in his delivery and he’s a bit of a spray gun command-wise (still raw in that regard), but it’s premium stuff across the board. The biggest key going forward will be competing in and around the strike zone on a consistent basis. It’s also important to remember he’s just 16-years-old and a Sophomore in HS. Ridiculous to think about what he might look like in a couple of years.

Peter Flaherty III

113,852 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

RHP Matt Scott (Stanford Baseball) is one of the premier college arms in this year's Draft. After a solid Freshman season that was split between the bullpen and the rotation, Scott this year anchored the Stanford rotation and collected a career-high 103 strikeouts against 36 walks across 80 innings. Earned a Team USA invite for the second straight summer. Scott has an XL, workhorse frame at 6-foot-7 and 247-pounds with plenty of strength and physicality throughout. Quiet, "checkpoint-like" delivery. Small side step towards 1B side, gathers himself and breaks into the rest of his operation. Attacks from a high-three quarter slot. Low effort, does a nice job of staying connected and in-sync for someone of his stature. FB sits in the 93-96 range, but will routinely touch 97/98. Tons of carry through the zone, averaged 22.5" of IVB last year. At its best when located in the top-1/2 of the zone, which is also where it generates most of its whiffs. Just needs to stay out of the middle. Threw it 62% of the time and generated a pretty impressive miss rate of 26%, though I think it can become even more effective if he's able to hone in on his command of it. 55 pitch right now, eventual 60 if some of the low hanging fruit is cleaned up. Supplements his FB with a mid-to-upper-80s gyro SL. I actually think Scott's feel for the SL is on par, if not better, than his feel for the heater. Effective against both right and lefthanded hitters. True, hard gyro look against LHH. Will flash more two-plane tilt against RHH with some sharpness to it. Another 55 pitch that last year had a 40% miss rate. Scott needs to up the usage on his split-change. Threw it just 6% of the time last year and I think it's his best secondary pitch. Legit weapon against LHH. Averaged nearly 12 MPH off his FB and he does an excellent job of killing spin on it; averaged 866 RPMs last season. Essentially falls off a table as it approaches the plate. Serious tumbling life with a bit of arm side fade. 48% miss across a limited sample in '24, I'd give it a 60. Command and control are both average, if not a tick above. Little-to-no reliever risk. Really like the body and stuff. Projects to be one of the first few college arms off the board this July and is a potential first-rounder.

Peter Flaherty III

23,661 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The book "Excellent Advice for Living" is so good I read it in one sitting. The book is a collection of maxims Kevin Kelly wrote to his adult children. Each maxim contains a bit of wisdom he wish he'd known earlier. 79 maxims that resonated the most (I added #57 selfishly) 1. Choose to believe that the entire universe is conspiring behind your back to make you a success. 2. Mastering the view through the eyes of others will unlock many doors. 3. If you can avoid seeking the approval of others your power is limitless. 4. The reward for good work is more work. 5. Don’t be the best. Be the only. 6. The urgent is a tyrant. The important should be your king. 7. Find smart people who will disagree with you. 8. The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing. 9. The most counterintuitive truth of the universe is that the more you give to others the more you'll get. 10. Life gets better as you replace transactions with relationships. 11. Courtesy costs nothing. 12. Life lessons will be presented to you in the order they are needed. 13. Cultivate an allergy to average. 14. If you repeated what you did today 365 more times would you be where you want to be next year? 15. If you're alive that means you still have lessons to learn. 16. Master something. Through mastery of one thing you'll command a viewpoint to steadily find where your bliss is. 17. Trust is earned in drops and lost in buckets. 18. First, always ask for what you want. Works in relationships, business, life. 19. If nobody else does what you do you won't need a resume. 20. How to apologize: quickly, specifically, sincerely. 21. The best way to advise people is to find out what they really want to do and then advise them to do it. 22. It is certain that 99% of the stuff you are anxious about won't happen. 23. What is important is not what happened to you but what you did about what happened to you. 24. Your golden ticket is being able to see things from other people's point of view. 25. Pay attention to who you are around when you feel best. Be with them more often. 26. To get your message across follow this formula: simplify, simplify, simplify, then exaggerate. 27. You will thrive more when you promote what you love rather than bash what you hate. 28. To be interesting just tell your own story with uncommon honesty. 29. When you truly think for yourself your conclusions will not be predictable. 30. Don’t measure your life with someone else’s ruler. 31. For maximum results focus on your biggest opportunities, not your biggest problems. 32. Pay attention to what you pay attention to. 33. Do more of what looks like work to others but is play for you. 34. Don't bother fighting the old just build the new. 35. Don't compare your inside to someone else's outside. 36. When you're stuck explain your problem to others. 37. Most stories are improved significantly if you delete the first page. Start with the action. 38. A long game will compound small gains that will be able to overcome even big mistakes. 39. Constantly search for overlapping areas of agreement and dwell there. 40. It is your destiny to work on things that only you can do. 41. Make stuff that is good for people to have. 42. You'll get 10 times better results by elevating good behavior rather than punishing bad behavior. 43. Life is not a straight line for anyone. 44. Aim for tasks that you never want to stop doing. 45. Regularly scheduled sabbaths, sabbaticals, vacations, breaks, aimless walks, and time off are essential for top performance of any kind. 46. Don't mistake a clear view of the future for a short distance. 47. Efficiency is highly overrated 48. Greatness is incompatible with optimizing in the short term. 49. The greatest teacher is called "doing." 50. Figure out what time of day you are most productive and protect that time period. 51. You are much better off delivering unwelcome news to someone yourself directly. 52. Don't ever work for someone you don't want to become. 53. Take one simple thing — almost anything — but take it extremely seriously as if it is the only thing in the world 54. Be frugal in all things except in your passions. 55. About 99% of the time the right time is right now. 56. Finite games are played to win or lose. Infinite games are played to keep the game going. Seek out infinite games because they yield unlimited rewards. 57. To be remarkable, read books. 58. Be a good ancestor. Do something a future generation will thank you for. 59. Bad things can happen fast but almost all good things happen slowly. 60. To transcend the influence of your heroes copy them shamelessly like a student until you get them out of your system. That is the way of all masters. 61. Don't worry how or where you begin. As long as you keep moving, your success will arrive far from where you start. 62. It is much easier to change how you think by changing your behavior, than it is to change your behavior by changing how you think. Act out the change you seek. 63. If you meet a jerk, ignore them. If you meet jerks everywhere every day, look deeper into yourself 64. Writing down one thing you are grateful each day is the cheapest possible therapy ever. 65. Ignore what others may be thinking of you because they aren't thinking of you. 66. Passion, persistence, belief, and ingenuity are required to invent new things. Qualities the poor and young often have in abundance. Stay hungry. 67. Calm is contagious. 68. When crises strike don't waste them. No problems, no progress. 69. Your purpose is to discover your purpose. This is not a paradox. This is the way. 70. Your passions should fit you exactly but your purpose in life should exceed you. 71. Fear makes people do stupid things. 72. When someone is nasty, hateful, or mean toward you treat their behavior like an affliction or illness they have. That makes it easier to have empathy toward them which can soften the conflict. 73. You don't need more time because you already have all the time you will ever get; you need more focus. 74. Compliment people behind their back. It'll come back to you. 75. Expand your mind by thinking with your feet on a walk or with your hand in a notebook. Think outside your brain. 76. Gratitude will unlock all other virtues. 77. You choose to be lucky by believing that any setbacks are just temporary. 78. It is useful to organize your thoughts with someone you trust and admire. 79. Over the long term the future is decided by optimists. To be an optimist you don't have to ignore the multitude of problems we create; you just imagine how much our ability to solve problems improves.

David Senra

89,738 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Look forward to following LHP Landon Beidelschies (Arkansas Baseball) closely this season. After spending his Freshman season in the bullpen, Beidelschies last year made the jump to the rotation and pitched his way to a 4.15 ERA with 91 Ks to 31 BB across 84.2 IP. Physical build at 6'3" and 225-pounds with particular strength in his lower-half. Simple operation that has improved and become more powerful since his Freshman year (when this video was taken). Ultra-abbreviated arm stroke and attacks from a three-quarters slot. Blocks well with his lead leg, really drives back side through. Beidelschies' FB sits in the 91-94 range, but has been up to 98 with some carry at the top of the zone. He'll need to miss more bats with it, though. That will come if he's able to improve his control of the offering which, in turn, would help optimize its shape. Most effective in the top-1/2, where it gets over the barrel of opposing hitters. His calling cards are his secondary offerings. Beidelschies will throw his mid-80s gyro SL to both right and lefthanded hitters, though it is much more effective against LHH (they hit just .135 against it in '24). It will flash two-plane tilt with some late depth. Can back foot it at times against RHH. Curious to see if he's able to add some teeth to it this spring and beyond. 41% miss rate last spring. Mid-to-upper-80s CH is an effective weapon against RHH, who hit just .200 against it last season. Was impressed with the strides he made with the pitch - it's clear he became more confident in it and was throwing it with more conviction. Flashed plus with big time late tumble - that "falling off the table" action. Threw it just 11% of the time last year (generated a 46% miss rate), but I'd like to see that tick up in 2025. Strike-throwing across the board took a step in the right direction between '23 and '24. Average command and control. Beidelschies will be a key part of Arkansas' rotation this spring, during which he'll have the opportunity to cement himself as a pro starter. 3rd-5th round type right now.

Peter Flaherty III

37,643 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨Ancient Secret Revealing Day🚨 This day has finally come. On December 1, 2025 — that is, today, right now — I’m revealing the “secret ingredient” that more than 100 volunteers around the world have already used over the past two months to successfully cast artificial (fake) granite. And since a hundred people do a hundred things a hundred different ways, we’ve made huge leaps forward. When I first announced the “secret material,” I was honestly convinced I knew everything and I was the one handing out wisdom. Yeah, right! No. In these two months I’ve had to introduce versioning, and we’ve jumped two major versions ahead — the recipe is now at v3.0. This team made it possible to invent no-mix casting, which kills two birds with one stone — actually, three: 1. No more hunting for gigantic ancient concrete mixers, because we don’t mix the material anymore (at least not when it’s wet). 2. No more cursed frequencies or ancient vibrators either, because with the v3.0 method we can produce perfectly bubble-free stones. 3. The role of nubs is clear. These positive experiences led me to a decision: let a thousand flowers bloom. I’m not going to bother with patents or any other restrictions — I’m making the “secret ingredient” public. And it is: A pinch of slaked lime 🤣 That's right! I'm not kidding! See the video. Slaked lime borrowed from the leather tanning guy next door. Now, some of you might say that this means I’ve been chasing my own tail for at least two years, because quicklime and slaked lime are also components of wood ash — and we’ve known for two years that wood ash, especially pine ash, creates stone when mixed with waterglass. True. And yet no one before me tried adding even a pinch of slaked lime to waterglass — not 2,000 or 3,000 years ago. Why? Because it is counter intuitive! This day has finally come. On December 1, 2025 — that is, today, right now — I’m revealing the “secret ingredient” that more than 100 volunteers around the world have already used over the past two months to successfully cast artificial granite. And since a hundred people do a hundred things a hundred different ways, we’ve made huge leaps forward. When I first announced the “secret material,” I was honestly convinced I knew everything and I was the one handing out wisdom. Yeah, right! In these two months I’ve had to introduce versioning, and we’ve jumped two major versions ahead — the recipe is now at v3.0. This team made it possible to invent no-mix casting, which kills two birds with one stone — actually, three: No more hunting for gigantic ancient concrete mixers, because we don’t mix the material anymore (at least not when it’s wet). No more cursed frequencies or ancient vibrators either, because with the v3.0 method we can produce perfectly bubble-free stones. These positive experiences led me to a decision: let a thousand flowers bloom. I’m not going to bother with patents or any other restrictions — I’m making the “secret ingredient” public. And it is: A pinch of slaked lime. See the video. Now, the sharp-eared might say that this means I’ve been chasing my own tail for at least two years, because quicklime and slaked lime are also components of wood ash — and we’ve known for two years that wood ash, especially pine ash, creates stone when mixed with water glass. True. And yet no one before me tried adding even a pinch of slaked lime — not 2,000 or 3,000 years ago. So what exactly does it do? The calcium ions in it destabilize the water glass and kick off the formation of silica gel. Our binder is dried silica gel — essentially a type of glass. Meaning: natural granite’s binder is quartz, which is transparent, has a Mohs hardness of 7, and its chemical formula is SiO₂. Our artificial granite’s binder is amorphous silica, also transparent, with a Mohs hardness of 6–6.5, and — no joke — its chemical formula is also SiO₂. If someone looks at these stones without suspicion, it’s insanely difficult to tell the two apart. You need instruments — and an open mind. And why is slaked lime counterintuitive in this recipe? Several reasons. First, it’s alkaline. Any acid — even lemon juice or vinegar — can precipitate silica gel from the solution, but an alkali? No way! Also: lime turns everything white. And at first glance, that seems to be happening here too. But once it stops being lime and becomes just a thorn under the water glass’s fingernail — a catalyst — it turns transparent. And no, this doesn’t turn our material into concrete. The binder is not Calcium Silicate Hydrate — you’d need at least ten times more slaked lime for that. This remains amorphous silica gel, even if calcium ions lurk inside here and there. So what exactly does it do? The calcium ions in it destabilize the waterglass and precipitate silica gel. Our binder is dried silica gel — essentially a type of glass. Compare: Natural granite’s binder is quartz, which is transparent, has a Mohs hardness of 7, and its chemical formula is SiO₂. Our artificial granite’s binder is amorphous silica, also transparent, with a Mohs hardness of 6–6.5, and — no joke — its chemical formula is also SiO₂. If someone looks at these stones without suspicion, it’s insanely difficult to tell the two apart. You need instruments — and an open mind. So the secret of the set is gelation. If you add nothing, water glass simply will not set at this thickness. The mixture can stay liquid for weeks, and you can just pour it back out. But once gelation starts, you’re dealing with a completely different set of physical properties. Gelation gives the entire casting its own internal stability. I’m curious how this behaves at larger scales, but I’m hopeful you can cast multi-ton megaliths without the formwork bursting apart like it would with concrete. This stuff doesn’t flow. Gelation also explains why the surface ends up so smooth it looks polished. As for how the ancient Egyptians polished fist-sized depressions? They didn’t. Silica gel did the work. Water resistance: store-bought waterglass is mainly sodium waterglass, which only produces moderately water-resistant stones. Fine for indoor decorations or desert scenery, but you can’t cast underwater cities — no Osireon — from it. For that you need potassium waterglass — in other words, lye from wood ash. And if any mystery remains, it’s those white veins found in natural stone. “You can’t replicate that artificially!” cry the experts. Ignore them. We can’t replicate veins YET. But since every gear is meshing perfectly so far, the solution to that will come too. Enjoy!

Marcell Fóti 🪨

91,918 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Watch the short video clip attached of Andy Stanley. He is a teacher with a large flock in Georgia. How should we respond to what he is teaching in this clip? God’s Word has a severe warnings for those of us who are teachers. God instructs us that teachers/leaders are going to be a problem. You see those who teach, don’t just teach facts per se. A teacher imparts a way of thinking, an interpretation of the facts, a worldview to the people being taught. That’ why God gives us this warning: “Not many of you should become teachers, my brothers, for you know that we who teach will be judged with greater strictness” (James 3:1). My father was a school teacher, but he also loved to teach God’s Word. But he would explain how he never wanted to lead anyone astray, which is why his favorite verses of Scripture began with, “have you not read?” or “it is written.” He taught me about study bibles this way as an example of how we should evaluate what we are taught. He would say “remember, the notes are not inspired like the text, so always use the text as the commentary on the notes.” In other words, we need to judge what someone is teaching against the absolute authority of the Word of God. If we don’t do this, we could easily be led astray God’s Word has many warnings about shepherds who lead the sheep astray. In fact there are numerous warnings, so we really need to take heed of this issue. For instance: “Woe to the shepherds who destroy and scatter the sheep of my pasture!” declares the LORD” (Jeremiah 23:1). “Many shepherds have destroyed my vineyard; they have trampled down my portion; they have made my pleasant portion a desolate wilderness” (Jeremiah 12:10) “Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves” (Matthew 7:15). As you watch this video clip, think about how lukewarm much of the church is today. Think about the fact that there’s been a generational loss from the church with Generation Z church attendance down to less than 9%. Think about the increasing number of churches going soft on the LGBTQ worldview accommodating their views instead of lovingly explaining how our beliefs and behavior have to be judged against the absolute authority of the Word of God, and that such a worldview is sin. In the era we live in, a major fact that has greatly undermined the impact of the church and led to many of the younger generations leaving the church for the world, is the rampant compromise the majority of church leaders have made with evolution/millions of years and thus undermining Genesis as literal history. And this history in Genesis 1-11 is the foundation of all doctrine, our worldview, the rest of the bible, of everything ultimately. This compromise has had catastrophic consequences on the church and the younger generations who have become so secularized and anti-Christian with many leaving the church. Doubt in God's Word led to unbelief. Generation Z are now considered the first post-Christian generation. This video clip is a prime example of what has happened in much of the church. Andy Stanley makes it very clear that Christians can accept evolution and say God used it to create. In fact he’s adamant Christians have to accept this. Thus he is saying that God use death, suffering, disease and violence over millions of years to bring man into existence. That God calls all this death and disease as “very good” as He describes everything He created in Genesis 1:31 this way. Stanley has also accepted the evolutionary history in regard to interpreting cultures of the past. He is saying that the ancient Hebrews were not as intelligent as us today. That God couldn’t explain how he created to them as they didn’t have all the “science” that we have today. But this is not true. First of all, man has been intelligent right from the start. I’m sure Adam was highly intelligent with his perfect brain. Secondly, the bible is not a book written to counter near eastern mythology as Stanley claims. No, the bible is God breathed (2 Timothy 3:16) and is for all people, for all ages, for all time! “The grass withers, the flower fades, but the word of our God will stand forever” (Isaiah 40:8). “Forever, O LORD, your word is firmly fixed in the heavens” (Psalm 119:89). Thirdly, God wrote His Word and knew that we in the 21st century would be the ones who would have trouble understanding it, as because of our intellectual pride in thinking we know a lot, we will think we are too sophisticated to believe God’s Word as written. We would rather believe the fallible word of man than the infallible Word of God. I judge Stanley’s word against God’s Word. Stanley is judging God’s Word against his own word and the word of fallible scientists he has chosen to believe. Such compromised teaching undermines the authority of the Word of God and results in lukewarm Christians at best. Sadly, over time, many doubt God's Word and end up walking away from the Christian faith. I know a lot of people will be upset with me critiquing such a popular speaker. But all of us need to accept that Andy Stanley is not the absolute authority, he is a fallen human being like all of us. He has a sinful heart as we all do, and our sin nature is prone to exalt the word of man instead of the Word of God, which was the temptation the devil made to Eve in Genesis 3:1. But we do have an absolute authority, God. He has given us His Word. So we need to judge our own actions and beliefs and what others are saying against the absolute authority of God's Word. When you do this with what Andy Stanley is teaching in this video, you realize he is not teaching God's Word as written, but imposing man's religion of evolution on God's Word. Evolution is a religion. It's the religion of naturalism, which is atheism. It's man's attempt to try to come up with a way of explaining life without God, based on natural processes. Sadly, just like the Israelites, so many of our leaders have taken mans false religion and compromised it with God's Word. This is an attack on God's Word and an attack on the character of God by blaming God for millions of years of death, disease, violence and suffering as the evolutionary story details. A verse I often think about in regard to such matters is this one: "Let God be true though every one were a liar" (Romans 3:4). “For the time is coming when people will not endure sound teaching, but having itching ears they will accumulate for themselves teachers to suit their own passions, and will turn away from listening to the truth and wander off into myth” (2 Timothy 4:3–4) We need to pray for Andy Stanley that God will open his eyes to the truth of His infallible word and faithfully teach God's Word to people.

Ken Ham

406,445 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

let’s start where this actually lives, not where you want it to live. with the math. the last three weeks of dynamite: 👉 765k 👉 730k 👉 654k that is not a ramp. that is not momentum. that is not “heating up” into a conversion window. that is a decline into it. you are looking at a -111k drop in two weeks, roughly 14–15% contraction from the high to the low, at the exact point where a traditional ppv cycle should be stabilizing or expanding. instead, you have compression. average those three weeks and you land at roughly ~716k linear viewers. that is your real, observable, measurable audience. not hypothetical reach not cumulative impressions not social engagement proxies actual people sitting down and watching the show in the time slot that matters for conversion. i’ve already laid out in detail what the max numbers actually represent and how simulcast behavior works, so i’m not going to re-litigate all of that here. but it matters enough to say again clearly: max is not a second audience at scale. it is a distribution extension that splits the same audience. it does not double your reach. it does not materially expand your funnel. it shifts a portion of existing behavior from one pipe to another. the short version is already established: 👉 max is not additive at scale 👉 max is a split of the same audience 👉 max realistically contributes ~50k–150k, ~75k center so your total reachable audience on a good night is: 👉 ~790k–800k all-in that’s the funnel. that’s the ceiling. that’s the number you are working from. that’s the universe that can possibly convert into a paid transaction. not hypothetical not inflated not “what if” that is the real audience number. now take the number dave is floating: 👉 ~143k ppv buys run the only equation that matters: 👉 143k ÷ 800k = ~17.9% conversion stop there for a second Dave Meltzer is unironically asserting that nearly 1 out of every 5 viewers is converting into a $40–$50 transaction in 2026 in a market with: – no centralized ppv infrastructure – subscription-first behavior – widespread piracy – fragmented pricing (domestic, max discount, vpn international) – a declining weekly audience trend that is the claim. not “strong performance.” not “better than expected.” not “up year over year.” the claim is nearly 1 in 5 viewers converting into a $40–$50 transaction in 2026. this is where the conversation should end, because that number does not exist anywhere in modern media behavior. it doesn’t exist in boxing. it doesn’t exist in ufc. it doesn’t exist in any scaled transactional model operating in the current environment. and more importantly, it didn’t exist consistently even when the infrastructure supporting it was intact. again, this is the part people either don’t understand or choose to ignore: ppv is not just a pricing model. it is an infrastructure model. and that infrastructure is gone. for decades, the backbone of ppv was inDemand. that system wasn’t just pushing content out to cable homes. it was aggregating buys, standardizing reporting, and creating a reconciliation layer that allowed promoters, distributors, and networks to operate off the same dataset. if you were serious about this business, you could triangulate numbers. you could get within a narrow band of reality because the pipes were real and the accounting was shared. that system shut down in 2025. 👉 143k ppv buys is not an aggressive take 👉 it is not an optimistic take 👉 it is a structurally impossible take because we know what real conversion looks like. we do not need to guess. it has been modeled across combat sports, boxing, ufc, and multiple transactional platforms. the ranges are stable: 👉 1–3% → normal 👉 3–5% → strong 👉 5%+ → elite and rare, reserved for events with massive cultural heat and crossover appeal those ranges were established when the infrastructure was intact, pricing was more controlled, piracy was less frictionless, and distribution was more centralized. today, every one of those conditions is worse. pricing is fragmented. you have $49.99 standard, $39.99 through max, international pricing accessible through vpn, and a piracy environment where high-quality streams are available instantly. that is a high-friction, high-leakage system. so conversion should compress, not expand. now apply real-world conversion to your real audience: 👉 800k × 2% = 16k buys 👉 800k × 3% = 24k buys 👉 800k × 5% = 40k buys that’s your range. 👉 ~15k–35k realistic 👉 ~20k–30k as the most defensible center 👉 ~40k reasonable given the strength of the headliners now invert the math, because this is where the claim completely collapses. if you want to justify 143k buys at even a healthy 3% conversion rate, you need roughly 4.7 million engaged viewers. so the question becomes extremely simple: where are the other four million people? 👉they are not on linear television. 👉they are not on max. 👉they are not showing up in any digital engagement metrics that correlate with that level of demand. 👉they are not visible anywhere in the ecosystem that would need to exist to support that level of conversion. 👉👉👉👉👉 they do not exist. and this is before you even account for the trend line moving the wrong way. you are not converting off a growing base. you are converting off a shrinking one. you are not building urgency. you are losing reach. that matters, because conversion does not happen in a vacuum. it happens on top of momentum, visibility, and audience expansion. when those inputs are declining, conversion does not spike to historic highs. it compresses further. the biggest fights in the world are no longer relying on ppv as their primary distribution model. they are moving to platforms that guarantee reach and revenue up front. the most recent example should end this conversation for anyone actually paying attention: netflix just locked tyson fury vs anthony joshua for a major global fight this august. that is one of the biggest possible matchups in boxing. in any previous era, that is a premium ppv event with massive buy expectations, heavy marketing, and a full transactional rollout. instead, it is going to a subscription platform. why? because the economics are better. the reach is global. the friction is lower. the platform values engagement at scale over one-off purchases. that is where the industry is. so when you are being asked to believe that a weekly wrestling property with a ~700k linear audience, declining into its ppv window, is somehow generating six-figure transactional buys inside a subscription platform in 2026, you are not just being asked to accept a number. dave is asking you to ignore the direction of the entire market. and that’s before you even bring in platform behavior. max is not a live sports-first platform. it does not behave like one. when max has something it cares about, it promotes it aggressively. homepage rails. push notifications. press releases. talent integration. cross-platform amplification. you do not see that here. and that absence is not accidental. platforms surface what they want you to see. they amplify what drives engagement and revenue. if ppv at scale were happening inside that ecosystem, it would be visible. it would be part of the narrative. it would be monetized loudly. it isn’t. and that’s before you even factor in the other variables i’ve broken down in detail before: 👉 i’ve already debunked why the max numbers people are throwing around don’t make sense 👉 i’ve already explained what the linear number actually represents and what it doesn’t 👉 i’ve already mapped the media rights landscape in 2026, including how these properties are being evaluated ahead of the paramount–wbd merger the wsj reports could close as early as july so when you’re being told by dave that a property with a ~700k weekly audience trending downward into a ppv window is generating six-figure transactional buys at premium pricing inside a subscription platform in 2026, you’re not being given data. you’re being given a number that does not reconcile with anything else in the system. that’s math. stop it - 45

Nick LoPiccolo

20,695 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

NVIDIA just convinced the biggest credit firms on earth to bet $500 billion that Michael Burry is wrong The bet is over ONE number: how long does a GPU live? Jensen thinks it's longer than most and a new asset class w/ a secondary market The hyperscalers write off GPUs over 5 to 6 years (Amazon uses 5, Meta 5.5, Google 6) On the other hand, Burry's famous bear thesis says the real life is 2 to 3 years becuase the newer models make the older models effectively worthless. If true, this would mean the industry is overstating profits by roughly $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 Here's why this one number matters so much. On every $100B of GPU capex: 1. 3 year life = $33B a year of depreciation expense 2. 6 year life = $17B a year 3. 8 year life with resale value = $10B a year The gap between Burry's world and Jensen's world is $20B+ of profit per year on every $100B spent, and the industry now spends well over $500B a year! So who's right and is this new $500B AI infra fund a risk on the market? Let's look at what the market is paying for it right now: A100s are 6 year old chips, fully depreciated, worth roughly zero on the books, and their rental price is UP about 25% this year (see the chart I reposted below) A supposedly dead asset from Burry has been climbing all year Azure ran V100s for 7.5 years before retiring them, Google still runs 7 to 8 year old TPUs in production. Old GPUs don't seem to die, they get demoted from training to inference and then continue earning cash That's what Jensen showed the credit desks, and it changes everything, because an asset with real resale value can be financed more similar to something like an aircraft Airlines lease planes instead of buying them because lenders trust the residual value. If GPUs work the same way, customers don't need equity to buy chips anymore, credit does it, and the pool of NVIDIA buyers expands massively It looks like Jensen is going to be right about this (which makes sense, he is the King of GPUs) and $500 billion of the smartest credit money on earth too his side too This is extremely bullish for NVIDIA of course, but also the hyperscalers and even neoclouds who are the main buyers/sellers of GPUs. The longer their assets retain value, the more they will buy and resell If you want to see how I'm investing in this market you can track my entire portfolio and research in real-time, alongside 4 other analysts, inside Milk Road PRO. It's currently just $1 to try it out (insane price just to check it out) and you can learn more and join here: Good luck out there!

Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road

267,889 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

Steve Jobs literally gave a 10-minute masterclass on building a company (better than $100K MBA): 1. Someone has to be the keeper of the vision. There is a staggering amount of work in building anything, and when you have to walk a thousand miles, the first step looks impossibly far. Jobs saw his job as the person who constantly reminds everyone that the goal is real, not a mirage, and that each step gets you closer. In a thousand small and occasionally large ways, the vision has to be repeated, or people lose faith it exists. 2. The honeymoon ends fast, and then the world only cares what you produce. After six months, Jobs told his team that all the goodwill they got just for existing was old news. You can point to the lawsuit, the setbacks, the this and that, but the bottom line is the world does not care. It cares about what you ship and how timely you bring it to market. From here on out you get judged like every other startup, by your product, not your story. 3. The most important job of a leader is recruiting. Jobs says it plainly: hiring is the thing he considers most important about a role like his. He didn't want seasoned professionals so much as people who were insanely great at what they did, who had the latest understanding of the technology at their fingertips and the passion to bring it to millions. 4. A great team becomes self-policing about who it lets in. Once you assemble a core group of ten genuinely great people, something powerful happens: they start guarding the bar themselves. They will not tolerate letting mediocre people into the group. The quality defends itself, which is why getting those first ten right matters more than almost anything. 5. Start with the customer experience and work backwards to the technology. This is the mistake Jobs says he made more than anyone in the room, and he has the scar tissue to prove it. You cannot start with a piece of awesome technology and then hunt for where to sell it. You start with what incredible benefit you can give the customer and where you can take them, and only then figure out the technology to get there. 6. You have to find what you love, and not settle. Your work fills a huge part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. The only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it, keep looking, and don't settle. Like any matter of the heart, you'll know when you find it, and it only gets better over the years. 7. They didn't set out to start a company. They just wanted the thing to exist. There was no personal computer in 1975, so Jobs and Wozniak built one because they wanted one and none existed. They made it for themselves, showed it to friends, and the friends all wanted one. They started building by hand until it consumed all their spare time, so they decided to manufacture a hundred just to stop. That is how Apple began. Not a plan to start a company, a circle that kept getting bigger. 8. "I want to make lots of money" is not a good enough reason. When people tell Jobs they want to start a company, he asks why. If the answer is to make lots of money, he tells them to forget it. He has barely seen anyone succeed that way. The ones who succeed often didn't even want to start a company. They just had an idea they needed to get out into the world, and had to build a company because no one else would listen. 9. You lead by example, because everyone is watching. You can say anything you want, but people watch extremely carefully what senior management actually does. When something isn't quite good enough, do you stop and make it great, or do you just ship it? Everyone sees which choice you make in the hard moments, what decisions you make and what values you hold, and that, not your speeches, is what permeates a company of thousands. 10. Focus doesn't mean saying yes. It means saying no. Jobs kept the organization simple and did very few things well. And focusing is hard precisely because it means deciding not to do a huge number of things so you can pour everything into a handful. Most people think focus is about what you take on. He understood it's about what you refuse. 11. Let people do the best work of their lives. Everyone wants to do something great, to be excited about what they're building, and to be recognized when they nail it. So Jobs tried to build a place where people could do their best work and then get it in front of 25 million customers. Knowing millions of people will use the thing you're making, and that the whole industry will copy it if it works, is enormously motivating. 12. Don't lose the war because you won a few battles. Late in the clip Jobs gets blunt about a danger he sees creeping in: losing the startup hustle. If you zoom out, it would be a shame to lose the war because you were busy winning small battles. He felt people were concentrating too hard on minor fights and losing perspective on the real one. And the war, he says, is survival, not running out of money before you get your product to market.

Jaynit

26,858 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen