3 caution points for Democrats... 1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020. 2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020. 3. Dems don't say they're more likely to... vote now than in Mayshow more

I would point out that Republicans haven’t had a good election cycle since 2016. And even that has an asterisk next to it because Donald Trump lost the popular level by two percentage points. Dems have been doing well ever since. The majority of Americans remain opposed to him.

They ARE underestimating Trump again. Because they can't stop putting out D+5 polling samples.

Trump being more popular than 2016/20 in isolation without mentioning Harris net favorables much higher than Hillary doesn’t make sense. Post DNC Harris could end up with an even net favorability as opposed to Trump who is still 8 to 10 points underwater.

2 and 3 are devastating for Dems. There's no NeverTrump segment of the GOP base like in 2016. He's got the party united behind him. And they're eager to turn out to vote and are outregistering the Dems in swing states. Meanwhile, Kamala's campaign has to pay people to post positive things on social media.

yet.. he loses virtually every election since 2016. special elections, Midterms, ballot initiatives...

They’re not winning anything Harry. More Republicans than ever are abandoning the sinking Trump ship, and he’s even under 50 percent in Ohio according to his campaign’s internal polling.

is a true warrior registering, new people, who have NEVER voted before. He's already flipped a country in PA & hasn't slowed down a single bit. Here in Colorado, they put open primaries on the ballot! Unfortunately, our elections are horribly insecure with progressives in the cities, in control.

And, if it’s the same rust belt polling error as it was in 2016/2020, it won’t be a particularly close election either (as of today). Don’t forget that Wisconsin has been the most incorrect state 2 elections in a row for pollsters. At least when Trump was on the ballot.

1 caution point for Harry... 1. Your statistically illiterate analysis is literally what @RCPolitics did to produce this in 2022 Thanks, hope you learned something today.

So people who answer their phones are still responding the same way